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Nightfly
06 Jan 13 09:41
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Oct 02
| Topic/replies: 762 | Blogger: Nightfly's blog
My Feeling is he'll go for First Lieutenant 14/1 with VC. Young improving chaser ran a cracker in The Lexus. Reckon Sir Des Champs and Silvinaco bit of a moribund price. Though Silvinaco Conti at 7/1 would hold some appeal as an Apost..but if i were doing the column First Lieutenant fits the bill with room for price contraction and a realistic prospect of still further improvement.

What would you put up?
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Report ReaseHeath January 6, 2013 7:49 PM GMT
I like BSB but according to his trainer his participation in Gold Cup is dependent on his performance in Peter Marsh Chase.

Doubt Segal will want to pick a doubtful starter - especially after tipping SE antepost for King George.

The other thing that disturbs me with BSB is seem to recall he was pulled out of RSA last year on account of the ground (it was officially good!) so they must think he needs plenty of give.

Really,really like the horse but he's one for on the day imo.
Report Steamship January 6, 2013 7:54 PM GMT
I cannot remember what he went for AP last year in Gold Cup I know he got Synchronised on the day.
He went for the ill fated Pride of Dulcote the year before and Imperial Commander at 16-1 the year he won.
Report FOYLESWAR January 6, 2013 8:01 PM GMT
think he may put up flemenstar ,the way the horse traveled in the lexus it looked all over before the last may be he went to early on desperate ground and on better i.e good to soft at the festival if they can hold onto him for longer and produce him later he could well get the trip only run out of it in the last 100yds in lexus and impovement likely ,if he wins the hennessey his price will collapse 16s now on here fair imo.
Report judorick January 6, 2013 8:53 PM GMT
I like Flemenstar too but will only bet when confirmed and that includes all the others... I mean if Casey says 'it's the Gold Cup' his price is going to shorten and others will have to lengthen as a result
Report FOYLESWAR January 6, 2013 9:59 PM GMT
yeah judo i have backed him for the cc at big odds and green now, but think if he goes gold cup he has a serious chance and he may improve a lot for better ground  have took some of the 16 for gold cup
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat January 6, 2013 10:09 PM GMT
id expect him to put up tidal bay,on basis that bobs worth looks good.tidal has a chance on soft ground and if it comes up better ground it wont run
Report Ramruma January 6, 2013 11:30 PM GMT
^ is anyone betting NRNB yet?
Report stevo1 January 6, 2013 11:45 PM GMT
Yes Bet Victor non runner money back to place on same days racing.
Report Howdi January 7, 2013 12:34 AM GMT
Flemenstar a great horse best chaser in training bar SS but he don't stay  Sad
Report judorick January 7, 2013 1:08 AM GMT
he might on good round though
Report stevo1 January 7, 2013 1:41 AM GMT
Howdi, Flemenstar a great horse dont think great yet? Beaten by Tidal Bay and FL, they maybe make makes Bobs Worth look great? A great horse was Kauto Star with numerous Grade 1 victories, Flemenstar got long way to go yet.
Report OliasOfSunhillow January 7, 2013 10:54 AM GMT
I never ceased to be amazed by the fact that people want to follow exactly what everyone else is following. The job of PW is to sell papers and if Mr Segal had any sense he would walk and set up on his own, but of course thats a different game altogether to the cosy job of jounalist tipping
Report duncan idaho January 7, 2013 10:54 AM GMT
zzzzzzzzzz....blocked
Report duncan idaho January 7, 2013 10:55 AM GMT
ps you and millhouse really should have a night out together....i have no doubt the World will have been sorted by daybreak
Report millhouse January 7, 2013 10:57 AM GMT
Duncan, if any comments I make touch a nerve at all, then great, imo...
Report OliasOfSunhillow January 7, 2013 11:01 AM GMT
I must confess that I share Millhouse's perspective on mnay topics on here, thankfully
Report bluebirdfan January 7, 2013 11:14 AM GMT
I hate days like today where the bookies are shorterning all sorts up just incase Pricewise tips it; FWIW if I was writing his column I'd put up First Lieutenant as we know he acts at Cheltenham and he's a solid choice. I can see Tom going for Tidal Bay though
Report Galitzin January 7, 2013 11:28 AM GMT
As somebody has already said FL doesn't finish its races that well and may struggle to see 3m2f at Cheltenham. Captain Chris could be value for a place as it will be even better in spring and if ground is good.
Report stoozbet January 7, 2013 11:28 AM GMT
Did he not go for Captain Chris antipost for the GC last year?

Would make a huge amount of sense to stick with that again especially as the horse has come right this year. I've taken the 25/1 NRFB with Victor either way.
Report Galitzin January 7, 2013 11:48 AM GMT
He did. And then it jumped appallingly in the january trial. If I'd backed it I wouldn't want to see it run again before the GC. That was a hard race at Kempton.
Report duncan idaho January 7, 2013 1:11 PM GMT
millhouse
07 Jan 13 10:57

Duncan, if any comments I make touch a nerve at all, then great, imo...


not the comments per se, more hearing them for the zillionth time Cry
Report Ballydoyle January 7, 2013 3:26 PM GMT
Not quite sure why this guy is worthy of "Sir Tom" status etc...i don't follow his tipping to the letter, rarely have backed one of his from his advice, think the advertised prices are false in the extreme and don't have him as some sort of God that a few on here seem to view him as. Does anyone have his level stakes points to starting price?

Anyway, who would I put up? To me, only 3 horses can win the gold cup. Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti. Bobs Worth is a valid favourite. Flemenstar has zero chance of staying as does Grands Crus, First Lieutenant will not stay either, previously beaten horses in a Gold Cup (Tidal Bay, Long Run, Giant Bolster) have a shocking record, only Kauto Star has ever regained his crown and Long Run isn't a Kauto Star. Also had a very hard race lto. Captain Chris isn't good enough neither is Hunt Ball, despite the owner thinking he is the next Arkle.

Sir Des Champs my number one. 2 from 2 at Festival, 2m 4f way too short when beaten by Flemenstar and showed in Lexus another 2f could be perfect in March. Would have to jump better though and think he will on better ground.

Bobs Worth is a Cheltenham specialist and tough as they come. Stays, jumps and Hennessey winner. Worthy favourite.

Silviniaco Conti trained by the right man, will stay but lack of track form a worry.
Report audi1 January 7, 2013 3:39 PM GMT
pw is crap  i wouldent be so sad to follow the rubbish put out pathetic load of rubbish
Report EdwardWoowardWould January 7, 2013 3:41 PM GMT
"Another" moan up FFS  ^^^
Report Nightfly January 7, 2013 6:20 PM GMT
Well looking on OC looks like SD Champs and or First Lieutenant , hopefully these cowering bookies will put their prices back in the morning, but I think there both pretty solid AP choices..The one i am certain he wont put or will run in the race is Captain Chris..Despite being an Arkle winner CC patently dislikes the course and doesnt now go left handed. rarely this adamant but cant win and wont run IMVHO.
Report audi1 January 7, 2013 6:40 PM GMT
dont care what he puts up
Report JBNAY January 7, 2013 6:52 PM GMT
SDC
Report Brooksielad January 7, 2013 7:07 PM GMT
hope he dont put conti up, hoping for at least 5s on the day
Report lazarus2 January 7, 2013 7:42 PM GMT
All that we really know at this stage is that audi1 is certainly the most stupid person ever to post on this forum.
Report Nightfly January 7, 2013 7:46 PM GMT
that is some accolade Lazarus..stiff competition fot that Ballon D'or! .Congratulations Audi..Come On Down!
Report lazarus2 January 7, 2013 7:49 PM GMT
ha ha ha - what a plank he is
Report crackerpants January 7, 2013 7:53 PM GMT
hope pw comes back laz , cos i was his biggest fan last year when he made me a lot of cash . he just doesnt seem in the same class this year, hes well capable though
Report lazarus2 January 7, 2013 8:01 PM GMT
The bet is Flemenstar at 12-1 nrnb Bet Fred
Report celt221 January 7, 2013 8:07 PM GMT
12's now gone. That lasted long :)
Report celt221 January 7, 2013 8:07 PM GMT
12's now gone. That lasted long :)
Report crackerpants January 7, 2013 8:10 PM GMT
femenstar cant beat bobsworth .
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2013 8:25 PM GMT
foyles knew !
Report koikeeper January 7, 2013 8:26 PM GMT
I would be very surprised if Flemenstar stayed that far.
Report BJG January 7, 2013 8:27 PM GMT
I would nt MischiefBlush
Report racingstar January 7, 2013 8:27 PM GMT
"My feeling is"?
Who gives a monkey's todger about what you think?
Report koikeeper January 7, 2013 8:29 PM GMT
SDC...looks all over a dour stayer..if theres cut it will take some beating.
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2013 8:31 PM GMT
with better ground probable  than he has been running on this winter at the festival every chance  of him staying imo ,
Report penzance January 7, 2013 8:31 PM GMT
can't see Flemenstar getting up the hill,
no matter what the ground will be,non stayer,
reminds me of Florida Pearl.
Report koikeeper January 7, 2013 8:31 PM GMT
Just the way I see it...that extra 2f is along way at chelt
Report lazarus2 January 7, 2013 8:32 PM GMT
It is actually Sir Tom`s opinion that is of value. Thanks.
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2013 8:32 PM GMT
they said imperial commander by the same sire as flemenstar wouldd not stay ,and we know what happened there !
Report koikeeper January 7, 2013 8:33 PM GMT
lazarus2 07 Jan 13 20:32
It is actually Sir Tom`s opinion that is of value. Thanks.


Laugh, sorry, had to laugh
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2013 8:36 PM GMT
with better ground possible in the hennesey, if he were to pish up, and it looked as if he would on the turn in the lexus ,he will be near fav for the gold cup !
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2013 8:36 PM GMT
with better ground possible in the hennesey, if he were to pish up, and it looked as if he would on the turn in the lexus ,he will be near fav for the gold cup !
Report penzance January 7, 2013 8:39 PM GMT
looked that way in the Lexus,but petrol run out.
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2013 8:50 PM GMT
on desperate ground tho penzance .
Report penzance January 7, 2013 8:56 PM GMT
what racing is all about,he's good enough,
but will he stay?To me no,yes with others.
We'll find out if he runs.
   GL
Report Brooksielad January 7, 2013 8:57 PM GMT
time to trade on flem now then.
Report Galitzin January 7, 2013 10:26 PM GMT
Laz, where do you think the value is?
Report reculver January 7, 2013 10:55 PM GMT
PETE THE FETE, IMPROVING Cool
Report Steamship January 7, 2013 11:02 PM GMT
I said, I would put up Flemenstar yesterday. Did I back it? No.
Report BEER BEER BEER SEX AND BEER January 7, 2013 11:46 PM GMT
Beef or salmon
Report never give up January 7, 2013 11:49 PM GMT
I was standing next to him in the Haydock Paddock last year when he shouted ' Hey Alice, do you like the jumper? 'She laughed and replied 'lovely'

    mfraudy | 22 November 2012

    Well done Wyn, I wish I had entered. I am hoping there will be a similar contest for followers of Tom Segal one day, I will be 1.01 to win.
Report lazarus2 January 8, 2013 7:26 AM GMT
The whole thread is about Sir Tom and yet Koi laughs!!!

There are some incredible people about.
Report holywell January 8, 2013 7:42 AM GMT
If Tidal Bay can beat the best of the Irish horses I would be looking at home to find the Gold Cup winner.

Unless Mr Casey has said that his target is definitely the Gold Cup I'm surprised Tom Segal selected Flemenstar, a doubtful runner ? a doubtful stayer. If I had to select an Irish horse for the big race it would be Sir Des Champs. Good luck to those that managed to get on Flemenstar at 12/1.
Report cannyscot January 8, 2013 8:01 AM GMT
So Flemenstar is the tip, Does Tom mention the recommended price and who it is with? Thanks in advance.
Report ashleigh January 8, 2013 8:07 AM GMT
1pt flemenstar 12/1 fred n/r no bet, or 14/1 with billys,pp,spoils.
Report cannyscot January 8, 2013 8:17 AM GMT
Thanks, ashleigh...much appreciated. Also appreciate your 'stand out' prices piece on a Saturday!
Report JohnyGee January 8, 2013 8:45 AM GMT
Thank Ashleigh, appreciated as always!
Report EastLower Gooner January 8, 2013 9:55 AM GMT
Seems to be a few shrewdies willing to give Flemenstar another chance on better ground. Interesting one. He wasn't beaten all that far on desperate ground after running way too keenly (just stating possible case for why he folded after the last). Noticed a few of the better horses were struggling in the conditions at Leopardstown over the week. Arika Legionaire for instance was completely out on his feet after the last in his race even though he stays a lot further. personally liked the other option of just letting loose over 2miles in the Queen Mother...attack attack attack like there's no tomorrow (just something I'd prefer seeing ie a decent challenger to SS).

my own take on the lexus was that it pointed out the strength of the hennessy this season and that Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant were the ones to take note off in terms of....connections of the latter have said for ages the Gold Cup on better ground would be his thing so I wouldn't completely write him off.
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby January 8, 2013 10:47 AM GMT
they said imperial commander by the same sire as flemenstar wouldd not stay ,and we know what happened there !

IC was outbattled by a nose (A gnats whisker actually) by Kauto Star over 3 miles.

FStar looked as if the wheels fell off after cantering all over the field 2 out
Report audi1 January 8, 2013 11:45 AM GMT
load of crap ................ sad backing his selections
Report Ballydoyle January 8, 2013 12:01 PM GMT
lazarus will answer once he's removed his head from Seagull's bottom...Flemenstar my aarse. Muppets
Report Ballydoyle January 8, 2013 12:02 PM GMT
Queen Mother Champion Chase this time next week...he's surely not opposing Sprinter Sacre LaughLaughLaugh
Report FOYLESWAR January 8, 2013 12:07 PM GMT
he will oppose sprinter with an e.way tip ,not because he thinks it will win, but he has to put up a decent priced selection for the column.
Report lazarus2 January 8, 2013 12:07 PM GMT
Ballydole adds his name to list of vulgar plebs who infest this forum. Well done.
Report dod January 8, 2013 12:17 PM GMT
lazarus2 perhaps you would like to give your opinion of the merits of the gold cup field you do not have to agree with tom's selection he can be wrong from time to time.
Report Steamship January 8, 2013 2:03 PM GMT
audi why is it sad for those backing his selections? In the past festivals have you found Newmill 33-1,Star De Mohaison 33-1, Soldatino 16-1 Imperial Commander 16-1 Al Ferof 25-1 Captain Chris 25-1 ?
Report Ballydoyle January 8, 2013 3:21 PM GMT
Lazarus - you tell me who you think will win the Gold Cup and why? I will confidently say that Flemenstar will not win the Cheltenham Gold Cup because he will simply not stay 3m 2.5f around Cheltenham racecourse. Nor would he place in my own humble opinion.

Also, if you have the Pricewise level stakes profit handy that would be great.
Report never give up January 8, 2013 3:55 PM GMT
I was standing next to him in the Haydock Paddock last year when he shouted ' Hey Alice, do you like the jumper? 'She laughed and replied 'lovely'

    mfraudy | 22 November 2012

    Well done Wyn, I wish I had entered. I am hoping there will be a similar contest for followers of Tom Segal one day, I will be 1.01 to win.
Report judorick January 8, 2013 4:22 PM GMT
Still 12s around in various places but I would wait til his next start as he will need to win to even be considered for the CGC

raced with the choke out the whole way in the Lexus and only collared close home so needs to learn to settle and travel more kindly if he is going to get the trip - massive danger if he does

and if he doesn't get the Gold Cup trip there are plenty other races for him
Report koikeeper January 8, 2013 4:30 PM GMT
lazarus2 08 Jan 13 07:26
The whole thread is about Sir Tom and yet Koi laughs!!!


I was actually laughing at you...I'm not afraid to put an opinion up, be it right or wrong...

Would like to hear your own opinion on the race though...
Report crackerpants January 8, 2013 5:03 PM GMT
ballydoyle, il stick up for laz cos im a big pw fan , il tell you what will win and why, its not pw cos it cant stay the distance and wont get up the hill, bobs worth is the real deal stamina power and class and the best jumper by a mile , so dont keep trying to find others when the glaring obvious is staring you in the face, bobs worth will win and easy
Report tigershark January 8, 2013 5:08 PM GMT
If only life was so easy
Report judorick January 8, 2013 5:11 PM GMT
yes tigershark, love it when people 'know' exactly what is going to happen 10 weeks in the future
Report crackerpants January 8, 2013 5:18 PM GMT
Life is that easy on the occasion this horse is special will out jump any horse in trainig at this distance and further,will improove again and will win get on it. does anyone else agree with me
Report lazarus2 January 8, 2013 5:30 PM GMT
cracker - these people will never understand; that`s what makes it all such fun.
Report kavvie January 8, 2013 5:30 PM GMT
id love to see flemenstar win the gc but seriously hard to see him coming up that steep hill after 3m2f..i hope im wrong.the parade ring after he won would be good!!
Report dod January 8, 2013 5:33 PM GMT
lazarus still waiting to hear your view on the race.
Report lazarus2 January 8, 2013 5:34 PM GMT
dod doesn`t seem to understand this thread.
Report saddo January 8, 2013 5:35 PM GMT
More chance of you poking Kelly Brook.
Report saddo January 8, 2013 5:35 PM GMT
*dod, that is.
Report dod January 8, 2013 5:37 PM GMT
Knew you did not mean lazarus saddo.
Report lazarus2 January 8, 2013 5:38 PM GMT
Well done - bright lads.
Report 1st time poster January 8, 2013 5:41 PM GMT
how else can you ride ,he,s going to outjump most at ebry fence ,what are they going to do reign him back so  waste his biggest asset
Report Galitzin January 8, 2013 5:42 PM GMT
Ballydoyle: Also, if you have the Pricewise level stakes profit handy that would be great. Laugh

The 'Punting Genius' Mr Segal not quite lived up to such a billing this year has he.
Report Galitzin January 8, 2013 5:43 PM GMT
Or last year even.
Report crackerpants January 8, 2013 5:52 PM GMT
This time last yr pw was on fire he made me a lot of cash in jan, feb, mar, i was so confident with his selections it was better than printing money and i was getting on.it was as if the bookies just thought hes bound to loose soon but if he tipped a looser he came bouncing back,those days seem a long way away now, i dont know whats happened to him, i still bet them but only to min stake now, come back tom.
Report Galitzin January 8, 2013 5:59 PM GMT
Didn't he get into bed with a high street bookmaking chain last February?
Report never give up January 8, 2013 6:13 PM GMT
laz exposed again on his own thread.......claims a 5/1 winner without the 20p rule 4
Report scaredmoney January 8, 2013 6:16 PM GMT
crackerpants • January 8, 2013 5:52 PM GMT
This time last yr pw was on fire he made me a lot of cash in jan, feb, mar, i was so confident with his selections it was better than printing money and i was getting on.it was as if the bookies just thought hes bound to loose soon but if he tipped a looser he came bouncing back,those days seem a long way away now, i dont know whats happened to him, i still bet them but only to min stake now, come back tom.


On the laddies payroll now isnt he...akin to turkeys voting for christmas
Report never give up January 8, 2013 6:20 PM GMT
elvissss • February 25, 2012 1:39 AM GMT
When I said red lights Martyn I didn't mean to go and get a red graph.
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Report judorick January 8, 2013 6:28 PM GMT
just for instance

the last 13 Gold Cup winners all ran in one of the King George VI Chase or the Lexus Chase and Bobs Worth ran in neither so that has to put a question mark in your mind

but posters like Crackpot or whatever he is called are happy to decide now that the horse is past the post!
Report Ballydoyle January 9, 2013 10:33 AM GMT
Still waiting Lazarus....or do you not have an opinion of your own?Whoops
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 13, 2013 10:31 AM GMT
https://twitter.com/PaORourke89/status/289498846680203266/photo/1/large
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