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The more I look at this race the more I am thinking that Cinders and Ashes is an each way bet to nothing @ 6.5. He is guaranteed to come on for his last run McCain is very bullish about him. His Cheltenham form of last March would suggest that he can make up maybe 5 lenghts on top of his Supreme Novices victory with a normal extra year's maturity. Let no man say that the Supreme Novices is an easy race to win. I consider it way up there and the current e.w. price is very enticing.
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U NEED TO B VERY FORGIVING OF THAT **** OF A RUN @ NEWCASTLE TO SEE HIM WINNING OR PLACING.NOT FOR ME ON THIS GROUND.GL
think it will run a big race but countrywide flame looks rock solid an hes still improving as well
Won a sub standard supreme, no reason to see him turning tables on CF on the ground, so no thanks.
Triumph was a better race than the Supreme. Would have C&A at a similar price to Raya Star and Dodging Bullets.
if darlan wins first time out tomoz on heavy ground fair play to Hendo but thats is a big ask imo an surely wont b fully tunned up for this with chelt not far away cant see them going over board with him
I cannot believe for one moment that Countrywide Flame is a better horse than Darlan and that Darlan won't be ready for this.
I agree. C & A should not be ignored when punting on the 2.35. Very tempting odds.
the ground is wrong for cinders and ashes and no e/w value now 2 places
darlan has been enterd in races for a while now but due to ground they kept pulling him out, with chelt not far away now they have to get a run no into him on ground he obv dosent like, the ground is worst its ever been according to ground staff this morning i couldnt b confident an can see him drifting out but good luck Try My Best thats only my opinion
Remember the place market here on Betfair still pays on three places. One of the pluses of an exchange bet.
Your points are valid chief dan.I'm more worried about him not settling than the ground as no one can say he doesn't go on it until he's tried on it.Pedigree suggests he should be ok, has won right handed, mcCoy seems keen on him and hendo great record at the meeting.
You mention the Supreme been a hard race to wi, fair enough, but just how good is the Supreme? Of last year? Of the top ten finishers only Vulcanite in 10th has subsequently won a hurdles race, and that was a reasonably modest affair round Fakenham. It’s nearly Christmas as this is a pretty unimpressive return so far.
Just how good is the Supreme? Of the top ten finishers only Vulcanite in 10th has subsequently won a hurdles race, and that was a reasonably modest affair round Fakenham. It’s nearly Christmas as this is a pretty unimpressive return so far. The prospect of being able to strike down the second and third fav at 5/2 and 4/1 creates value elsewhere.
As things stand, the Triumph is working out better. Whereas I can accept that small field trials run in knee deep mud round Newcastle will have little bearing on the outcome in March, I’m not convinced that Countrywide Flame hasn’t put Cinders & Ashes away on merit. Cinders failed to seem to pick up, but the win was still nonetheless bloodless. All of the first five home in the Triumph have won races since albeit Grumeti did so on the flat and you could say Galileos Choice should be given some credit therefore for having advertised the Supreme in a similar fashion. Countrywide Flame has won the G1 Fighting Fifth, Hisaabaat won the Gd1 at Punchestown and Dodging Bullets has picked up Cheltenham’s Gd2 Oh So Sharp.
Needs a finisher for this, with conditions for this and in the finish is something I think Countrywide Flame has in abundance and he could be the exception but there’s a bit of me leaning towards Alan King’s progressive Raya Star at 8/1
In the first case he has a line to the Supreme Novice through Tetlami and it gives him an 8L (and 1Ib) verdict over Cinders and Ashes on there running of the Cheltenham feature and the Scottish Champion Hurdle. It’s not good enough to beat Countrywide Flame however,
I actually think the most impressive hurdler I’ve seen in at or around 2 miles to 20F’s this year is actually Oscar Whisky and I’m not so sure that getting within 8L’s of him isn’t the best piece of form recent form in this race? It’s difficult to say of course as you could easily say the favourites win in the Fighting Fifth is the best/
I thought Raya Star stayed with Oscar for about half a furlong before the class took over, wasn’t one of those where they flick the switch and its over before they trot out 10L’s eased. It looked for a bit as if he’d have to battle for it and that was Raya Star’s first attempt in this kind of grade.
There was a time about a decade ago when solid sorts like Geos, and Landing Light took this, Dato Star did too. Raya Star fits that kind of profile. Indeed both Geos and Landing Light were Tote Gold Trophy winners I think, and Raya Star was only beaten 1.25L’s into third in that race by Zarkander, receiving 12Ibs just 10 months ago. He’s rated 168 now, which would make Raya about 155 on that showing (which is of course his current mark)
You might say Get Me Out Of Here beat him a head at Newbury, but I reckon he’s improved since then. I suppose there’s line to last year’s Relkeel actually where Oscar Whisky beat GMOOH by 1.75L’s giving 8Ibs. That would be worth about 9L’s off levels, and that being so it isn’t too far removed from the 8L’s Oscar beat Raya by. Raya has turned that form round quite comprehensively since, but such was the eclipse of GMOOH at Ascot it would dangerous to rely on that verdict. It’s tempting to suggest GMOOH is only running for Darlan but in terms of the level of opposition that he’s been in against; Zarkander beaten 1.25L’s receiving 7Ibs, Oscar Whisky beaten 1.75L’s receiving 8Ibs, or even finishing a credible second in the Coral Cup anchored off top-weight, he could easily be over-looked as well. At 20/1 he’s probably worth considering if you’re prepared to simply strike a line through his latest and say he simply didn’t act on heavy ground.
As things stand, the Triumph is working out better. Whereas I can accept that small field trials run in knee deep mud round Newcastle will have little bearing on the outcome in March, I’m not convinced that Countrywide Flame hasn’t put Cinders & Ashes away on merit. Cinders failed to seem to pick up, but the win was still nonetheless bloodless. All of the first five home in the Triumph have won races since albeit Grumeti did so on the flat and you could say Galileos Choice should be given some credit therefore for having advertised the Supreme in a similar fashion. Countrywide Flame has won the G1 Fighting Fifth, Hisaabaat won the Gd1 at Punchestown and Dodging Bullets has picked up Cheltenham’s Gd2 Oh So Sharp.
Needs a finisher for this, with conditions for this and in the finish is something I think Countrywide Flame has in abundance and he could be the exception but there’s a bit of me leaning towards Alan King’s progressive Raya Star at 8/1
In the first case he has a line to the Supreme Novice through Tetlami and it gives him an 8L (and 1Ib) verdict over Cinders and Ashes on there running of the Cheltenham feature and the Scottish Champion Hurdle. It’s not good enough to beat Countrywide Flame however,
I actually think the most impressive hurdler I’ve seen in at or around 2 miles to 20F’s this year is actually Oscar Whisky and I’m not so sure that getting within 8L’s of him isn’t the best piece of form recent form in this race? It’s difficult to say of course as you could easily say the favourites win in the Fighting Fifth is the best/
I thought Raya Star stayed with Oscar for about half a furlong before the class took over, wasn’t one of those where they flick the switch and its over before they trot out 10L’s eased. It looked for a bit as if he’d have to battle for it and that was Raya Star’s first attempt in this kind of grade.
There was a time about a decade ago when solid sorts like Geos, and Landing Light took this, Dato Star did too. Raya Star fits that kind of profile. Indeed both Geos and Landing Light were Tote Gold Trophy winners I think, and Raya Star was only beaten 1.25L’s into third in that race by Zarkander, receiving 12Ibs just 10 months ago. He’s rated 168 now, which would make Raya about 155 on that showing (which is of course his current mark)
You might say Get Me Out Of Here beat him a head at Newbury, but I reckon he’s improved since then. I suppose there’s line to last year’s Relkeel actually where Oscar Whisky beat GMOOH by 1.75L’s giving 8Ibs. That would be worth about 9L’s off levels, and that being so it isn’t too far removed from the 8L’s Oscar beat Raya by. Raya has turned that form round quite comprehensively since, but such was the eclipse of GMOOH at Ascot it would dangerous to rely on that verdict. It’s tempting to suggest GMOOH is only running for Darlan but in terms of the level of opposition that he’s been in against; Zarkander beaten 1.25L’s receiving 7Ibs, Oscar Whisky beaten 1.75L’s receiving 8Ibs, or even finishing a credible second in the Coral Cup anchored off top-weight, he could easily be over-looked as well. At 20/1 he’s probably worth considering if you’re prepared to simply strike a line through his latest and say he simply didn’t act on heavy ground.
darlan won at aintree
we'll see how it works out when the front 5 have run on decent ground this season, take your point though
we'll see how it works out when the front 5 have run on decent ground this season, take your point though
Some cracking posts on this subject and I think the books have the top three at about the right prices on what we have seen this year.It's all about opinions and I'm fascinated how it will pan out.No doubt we'll all have a chat after the race.Good luck everyone
wd TMB and all other winners, that darlan is some serious tool
there'll be other days for cinders and ashes when the ground turns
there'll be other days for cinders and ashes when the ground turns
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