Coral Bookmakers “We’ll lay a bet on anything,”

By Harry Wallop http://www.telegraph.co.uk
11 Dec 2012

"It’s a battle – me, against them.” Meet Gary Burton, whose job it is to watch X Factor on a loop, read the newspapers, listen to the charts, watch the weather. That is because he is in charge of setting the odds for “novelty bets” at Coral, one of Britain’s biggest bookmakers.

Will there be a white Christmas? What will the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge call their first child? Will Bradley Wiggins win BBC Sports Personality of the Year? What phrase will the Queen use first during her Christmas broadcast: “My husband and I” or “A golden year”?

“There are lots of people out there who think they can beat the bookies. It’s my job to make sure they don’t,” says Burton.

Visiting Burton at his office, in Stratford, east London, it doesn’t look like the most taxing occupation. He’s at his desk, watching ITV’s daytime sofa-stupor This Morning. “They were talking about the X Factor single. I need to keep abreast,” he says.

Betting has changed a lot from the era before the National Lottery, when bookmakers’ windows had to be blacked out and nearly all bets were on horses or greyhounds.

Racing is still big business for bookies, and about two-thirds of their money is made on horses. But the internet, especially via smartphones, means more people are able to bet from the comfort of their sofas – usually on football, but also on an increasingly large range of novelty bets.

During X Factor, well over ÂŁ3 million was bet on the show, in mostly small amounts. And Ladbrokes says its novelty betting has doubled over the past year.

Simon Clare, a colleague of Burton’s, says: “Betting is largely about personal vindication, about proving people right. It’s that thrill of being able to say, 'I told you so-and-so would win the X Factor ’. Reality TV is just perfect for betting. Everyone has an opinion on the contestants.”

The high season for novelty bets coincides with Christmas – when the big talent show contests come to a head, the Royal family are in the news and people start predicting the year ahead.

“We’ll lay a bet on anything,” says Burton. A customer should be able to walk into any bookmaker’s, ask to bet on the colour of the Queen’s coat at church on Christmas Day, say, and the staff will call head office to set the odds.

At Coral, it will be Burton taking the call. “We always try to say yes. The only thing we don’t accept bets on is death – though lots of people tried to bet on when the Queen Mother would die.”

Working out the odds on who will win Sports Personality of the Year is fairly easy, as many polls have already been taken. Bradley Wiggins is hot favourite at 4-11 on (meaning that you will get only ÂŁ4 back if you bet ÂŁ11, plus your stake). Bookies remain resolutely old-fashioned in using fraction-based odds.

But how do you actually set these odds? Is there, as one would imagine, a complex algorithm?

“No, it’s mostly guesswork. Educated guesswork. And a calculator comes in handy,” says Burton.

Naturally, the odds reflect the probability of the outcome – there is a four in 11 chance that Wiggo will win. But the odds also need to ensure that the bookie does not go bust.

If a huge volume of money is placed on Cliff Richard releasing a Christmas number one, the odds have to be cut, even if it is as unlikely as the Peter Pan of pop discovering alien life on the moon. “It takes into account our liabilities, not just the probability,” says Burton.

A surge in money can also indicate that someone in the know is trying to make a fast buck. Ladbrokes stopped taking bets on Justin Welby being appointed Archbishop of Canterbury a good 48 hours before the official announcement, after a flurry of unusual bets. They would not say if these were placed at Lambeth Palace’s local betting shop, however.

One of the most common novelty bets is placed by parents wanting to gamble on their child playing football for England. “If they’ve just been born, that’s easy – it’s nearly always 10,000-1.”

Back in 1989 a factory worker, Kevin Bohn, placed a week’s wages of £140 at 300-1 that the 14-year-old Mark Williams would win snooker’s World Championship by the year 2000, having seen him play at his local club. Eleven years later, Bohn picked up a cheque for £42,000.

Sadly, your odds on a white Christmas this year are far shorter – just 4-1 on snow falling in London or Manchester.