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For all the world this race looks a one horse race, but I get the feeling this could be one of those day's. Ive set aside £200 and will wait till nearer the race as expect it to shorten to get the full profit for it. Why is my lay well, backing any novice chaser in it's first race is always a recipe for failure, especially with a winning French chaser trained by Nichols in the race. Clearly with experience this horse will jump well, at a pace, this will put pressure on the jumping. I saw Broadbackbob last year and he is a big, chaser type so should jump, but again it only takes one error and those French fences take some jumping. I'm sure they could have found a easier first assignment than this. You may say, but the Nichols horse is conceding 7lb, to a potentially very smart chaser, but like I've said that won't mean a thing if the horse makes an error or 3.
So at Bookmakers odds right now at 1/3 and shortening I may be able to get some 1.4 or less and am happy to chance my arm here. It could well hose up, but the profit V loss is worth a shot in my opinion, and that's what it is just an opinion. We all got them so feel free to comment, pre race if your going to comment post race thankyou! No aftertiming "idiot" remarks Thanks.
So at Bookmakers odds right now at 1/3 and shortening I may be able to get some 1.4 or less and am happy to chance my arm here. It could well hose up, but the profit V loss is worth a shot in my opinion, and that's what it is just an opinion. We all got them so feel free to comment, pre race if your going to comment post race thankyou! No aftertiming "idiot" remarks Thanks.
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Place lay for me at 1.14/1/15.....think it will not finish. Henderson seems to have a plethora of odds on losers on a Monday at Plumpton but normally after having several winners at the weekend.
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I think Bob will win this. I think that it is interesting that BG is riding, i know there is no irish racing on today, BG only seems to come over to ride the decent horses in the week. Normally AP or Tinkler ride the odds on losers, or ones that cant jump! The Nicholls horse looks pretty poor. Won in France on Hvy over further, the ground today is G/S so he may struggle to keep tabs with Bob. The rest arent much cop either. The only slight negative i can see is that they are starting over 2 1/2m. I would prefer to see him run over 2m first time up. Overall I think 1.4 is a decent price, ever 1.33 is not too short for this one in my opinion, i think if he jumps he wins.
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i agree with rcg im always keen to lay real short priced novice chasers,especially from the big yards but geraghty riding on the monday at plumpton even without an irish card would put me off laying it.im more interested in taking on the greatrex horse in the bumper some interesting rivals against it
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Tempo De Cotte win back to trade @17's
save on a place at evens |
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win stake traded at 8.6
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idiot
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different gravy
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Jumped a bit sloppy early on at the slow pace but looked good at pace. Race fell apart at the 4th last but takes ya chances.
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not much damage at 1,15 to place.
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i see denathorn and ianboy confirming the status of top forum MUGS 2day again..........
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wolfatthedoor
The OP gave his reasons for deciding to lay this animal - he got it wrong but why do you need to respond in the way you did? |
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cos hes a C**t, place is full of them.
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rcg has called this right. Gersghty doesn't often ride in the UK on a Monday and this horse has been highly touted as likely to prove one of the top staying novice chasers this season. Surprised that Hendo would take such a big horse to a tight gaff like Plumpton but the fences look soft (never been myself) and he knew the horse would probably have a straightforward introduction.
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thats not very nice ilwab
if you rea the OP he asks specifically that nobody calls him an 'idiot' my comment was therefore intended to be tongue in cheek maybe i should have added a smiley for the avoidance of doubt  decent post btw denathon |
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This novice chase in particular mate, or any race? Good spot though....I think Alan King tried this trick with Invictus.
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bad lay denathorn but was your opinion and the price was worth taking on
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Never lay class horses from top yards
Sea Bird Mill reef Desert Orchid Frankel Dancing Brave it goes on and on if your laying em you dont last long |
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wolf the bloke put up sound reasoning and just because the 1/3 shot won u call him an idiot?
pretty much sums up everything that is wrong with this place. put something up and when it loses the vermin come out of the woodwork. only about 2% of people on this forum back losers, its remarkable. |
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no one ever loses on the betfair forum
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ilwab
look mate.as I say my 'idiot' remark was intended as tongue in cheek due to what denathon says in his post about please no aftertiming 'idiot' comments if he is proved wrong. of course the guy is entitled to his opinion and I read it with interest it was reasonably argued although I personally would not have laid it as it happens but it has never been my style to come on here slagging off posters who take a view. |
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ILWAB
I think you are a bit slow on the uptake. wolfatthedoor has already said his remark was tongue in cheek and given an explanation that it refers to teh following from the OP So at Bookmakers odds right now at 1/3 and shortening I may be able to get some 1.4 or less and am happy to chance my arm here. It could well hose up, but the profit V loss is worth a shot in my opinion, and that's what it is just an opinion. We all got them so feel free to comment, pre race if your going to comment post race thankyou! No aftertiming "idiot" remarks Thanks. ILWAB -Yet you still proceed to have a go at him. I am afraid that what you have continued to post 'pretty much sums up what is wrong with this place'. |
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the point is both denathorn and ianboy have previous for this sort of bullsh1t.......lay of the day....lump on....lay of the decade......put your house on this.......and more time than not they are exposed as mug punters.....simples.....just go back thru the forum to see what i mean.......
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Richters is bang on
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Richters is bang on? I'm sure if you look through my post's you will see a reasoned argument, not just a selection and there is always a good argument as to why it could laid or bet for the win. In anycase, my way of betting does not always rely on the a pre race bet winning as plenty of other ways to ring fence your outlay. You think if this hit 1.6 IR I would not have placed a 200 quid win bet on it? Course I would. Only takes one mistake, a blunder, and the IR dudes push the odds out, was never at any stage going to go less than 1.33 IR until at least the econd last which gave it 2 miles to make a mistake, need a shove, be niggled, anything that would give the trigger happy layers the oportunity for me to back it at 1.6
I advise plenty on here about taking the value. If you see a 10/1 shot available to back at 28/1 on here, and knowing its running style I.E up with the pace, leads, like the course etc etc you know after 2 hurdles IR it will be 16/1 or sometimes well under. In which case you lay off for more than your stake guarenteeing a win, win or lose. All's I hear on here is moan moan, whinge whinge from people that rarely, if ever tip a selection and if they do its (Name only) in someone elses thread and if it wins its a high five, lose its WD WINNERS. It's kinda moronic when people come in slating others all day, jumping up in the morning to see who's posted, note it down and wait for a fail so they can be all "C+nt, loser, guesser, idiot etc etc etc" |
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Your nap or lay of the day threads are tosh.
End of. |
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bannahan
Joined Betfair: 15 Mar 12 My blog: Last 6 months activity Forum posts: 4200 Comments: 4200 comments in the last 6 months, AND yet I trawl through your profile and find all you do is comment, create topics after the race (Go native looked very good there!) Never any created topics with selections, all you are is a TROLL End of. |
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Keep trawling
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HAHA
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At the risk of being called an aftertimer,I can see no mention of the Lay being for Trading purposes.
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Didn't see any mention of a trade either?
As stated above... TOSH. |
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Clueless...laying 1/3 shots with Geraghty on board...madness.
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Clueless...laying 1/3 shots with Geraghty on board...madness.
the irony implicit within this statement |
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welcome to the betfair forum where eveeyones a hindsight expert
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Oh the irony!
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It quite literally beggars belief that anyone would want to lay this horse
Sorry if you lost money but you really should seriously consider giving the game up now before it all ends in tears |
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Let them carry on,it's a cash machine!
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Has Charnier moved in with Moneytree,Sooty and Fraudy?
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Well done all you backers
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