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25 Oct 12
11:29
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08 Mar 03
FORGET ABOUT EXCELEBRATION IN BREEDERS' CUP MILE
EXCELEBRATION (43) put up his best ever performance to take the QEII by three lengths in fast time. The way he picked up at the end of a strongly run mile on soft ground forces me to ditch my previous theory that he might be best over seven furlongs.
It's now clear Excelebration actually appreciates a greater stamina test than he normally gets over a mile. He's won all five times he's run on soft or heavy ground. And here he took a race that is the most testing of all Group 1 races over a mile due to the stiff course and strong pace that it invariably features. In fact six of the last ten renewals of the QEII would have gone to a horse that had previously placed in a Group 1 over a mile and a half but for Rip Van Winkle losing by a nose in 2010.
The concern this raises is that Excelebration will not be suited by the Breeders' Cup Mile. I say this because in America turf races, even those over a mile, are run French style. They feature a slow early pace and a sprint finish. This is why French horses have won seven times in the Breeders' Cup Mile and British and Irish horses just three times.
One of the three British and Irish wins in the Breeders' Cup Mile was by Ridgewood Pearl on one of those rare occasions it was run on soft ground. The other two were by Barathea, who'd run a close fourth in the 6f July Cup earlier that season and Loyal Tycoon, who'd won the Nunthorpe and the King's Stand over 5f that season.
The lesson that it takes a British or Irish sprinter to win the Breeders Cup Mile has not been lost on trainers. The last six winners of the QEII that went on to run at the big American meeting all contested Breeders' Cup races over ten furlongs or more.
The awful record of QEII winners in the Breeders' Cup Mile rams the point home:
1998...Desert Prince..............................14th
1994...Bigstone.......................................8th
1993...Bigstone.......................................6th
1992...Selkirk..........................................5th
1990...Markofdistinction.........................7th
1989...Zilzal............................................6th
1988...Warning.......................................12th
1987...Milligram.....................................13th
1985...Shadeed..........................................4th
It looks rather clear that unless there's an incredibly unseasonal downpour in California Excelebration is not going to place in the Breeders' Cup Mile. The idea of taking the bookie's miserly 6-4 and 7-4 about his chances looks plain daft to me (he's forecast to start 5-1 by the American publication Daily Racing Form behind the obvious favourite Wise Dan). I think the stable should reconsider their plans and aim the horse at the Hong Kong Mile or Japan's Champions Mile instead. Better yet, put him away for the season and aim him at the Dubai Duty Free in the Spring. A win in that race over nine furlongs would prove his stamina and thereby increase his stud value.
EXCELEBRATION (43) put up his best ever performance to take the QEII by three lengths in fast time. The way he picked up at the end of a strongly run mile on soft ground forces me to ditch my previous theory that he might be best over seven furlongs.
It's now clear Excelebration actually appreciates a greater stamina test than he normally gets over a mile. He's won all five times he's run on soft or heavy ground. And here he took a race that is the most testing of all Group 1 races over a mile due to the stiff course and strong pace that it invariably features. In fact six of the last ten renewals of the QEII would have gone to a horse that had previously placed in a Group 1 over a mile and a half but for Rip Van Winkle losing by a nose in 2010.
The concern this raises is that Excelebration will not be suited by the Breeders' Cup Mile. I say this because in America turf races, even those over a mile, are run French style. They feature a slow early pace and a sprint finish. This is why French horses have won seven times in the Breeders' Cup Mile and British and Irish horses just three times.
One of the three British and Irish wins in the Breeders' Cup Mile was by Ridgewood Pearl on one of those rare occasions it was run on soft ground. The other two were by Barathea, who'd run a close fourth in the 6f July Cup earlier that season and Loyal Tycoon, who'd won the Nunthorpe and the King's Stand over 5f that season.
The lesson that it takes a British or Irish sprinter to win the Breeders Cup Mile has not been lost on trainers. The last six winners of the QEII that went on to run at the big American meeting all contested Breeders' Cup races over ten furlongs or more.
The awful record of QEII winners in the Breeders' Cup Mile rams the point home:
1998...Desert Prince..............................14th
1994...Bigstone.......................................8th
1993...Bigstone.......................................6th
1992...Selkirk..........................................5th
1990...Markofdistinction.........................7th
1989...Zilzal............................................6th
1988...Warning.......................................12th
1987...Milligram.....................................13th
1985...Shadeed..........................................4th
It looks rather clear that unless there's an incredibly unseasonal downpour in California Excelebration is not going to place in the Breeders' Cup Mile. The idea of taking the bookie's miserly 6-4 and 7-4 about his chances looks plain daft to me (he's forecast to start 5-1 by the American publication Daily Racing Form behind the obvious favourite Wise Dan). I think the stable should reconsider their plans and aim the horse at the Hong Kong Mile or Japan's Champions Mile instead. Better yet, put him away for the season and aim him at the Dubai Duty Free in the Spring. A win in that race over nine furlongs would prove his stamina and thereby increase his stud value.
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Replies: 27
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I dont often agree with him but I do like the way he sticks his neck out
How do those horses listed as far back as 1985 have any effect on Excelebrations chances in 2012 pls imo? |
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"I say this because in America turf races, even those over a mile, are run French style. They feature a slow early pace and a sprint finish."
Just incredibly flawed research. Anyone who has had the briefest look at this year's BC Mile will be well aware that Obviously is certain to set a blazing gallop. This horse has gone through 6f in under 69 seconds on both his last two runs and Little Mike is another noted front runner. I'm in no rush to take 6-4 Excelebration. But the notion that he will be undone by a steady pace at Santa Anita is just laughable. |
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I always thought that most american races were just run fast from the start and whoever lasted home the best was the winner.
his old data is taken from the time when a lot of british runners were sent to america as an afterthought and weren't trained specifically for those races. |
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outpost, re. yr first comment, i think that is the case on dirt (the majority of US racing) but not so much turf
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agreed DI
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They race very differently over a mile on grass and dirt.
Time and time again they go off at 6f pace on dirt and something comes from behind as the leaders fade out but its generally sedate pace on grass but the riders often allow gaps to appear and then try and quicken up 2 out. I can see what NM is saying but why not jump Excelebration on early and make it from the front and quicken away. Our horses are superior on the grass so what is going to quicken past him? I don`t think good horses need cover they just want a true run race, let him make all and win. Were is the problem? |
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to front run and win they will need a good draw - 1 or 2 off the fence would be fine - so they are not wasting energy. Would also require precise management of the split times to ensure there is enough in the tank to repel late challenges
Fallon is a master at rides like that but I presume it will be Joseph if he can do the weight certainly don't see him being advantaged by trying to come off the pace in a slow run race |
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Horses that stay 10f should not try and come from behind in a slow run 8f race. Drives me mad when they are ridden so. As long as he gets up with the pace early he could creep to the front and wind it up 3 out and put the race to bed.
No need to settle for a slow pace. Joseph is able enough to get the fractions right. |
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not all horses can go from the front...too free if they see daylight
excelebration doesnt stay 10f...he's never raced beyond 8f |
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The point is NM is inferring Excelebration fits the bill of a 10 furlong horse.
Dunc you say he does not stay? has he failed to stay 10f? My view is that if he is inconvenienced by a slow 8 furlong then they should press on. I guarantee that they will not because AOB and family believe they have found the key to this horse in holding him up for a late burst. |
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I thought it was finishing very strongly on bad ground on Sat and has plenty stamina in breeding. 13/8 looks fair to me. A strongly run race should really play to its strengths. OBrian will be desperate for another win for Joseph over there so expect the horse to be spot on for the race, not always the case with his horses.
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Unlikely to be a strongly run race though.
Should he make the running if it is a dawdle? |
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Breeders cup races are nearly always fast run from start, its how most American races arenever mind championship races. I can see him sitting midfield and picking them up with 2 to go nothing will pass it in the straight. We shall see in couple weeks. Should be interesting.
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Read the thread, American racing on grass is not run at a fast pace.
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Breeders Cup Classic
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DI - Sorry to be pedantic but it was LAST Tycoon not Loyal Tycoon.
As for your France versus Ireland & UK stat standing at 7-3...a half competent ride from the jockey on Rock Of Gibraltar would have made that stat look a more attractive 6-4 instead, as Domedriver was the beneficiary of a rare error by Kinane - Rocky was far superior! Maybe this is a misleading stat as two super-fillies in Miesque & Goldikova won FIVE renewals between them! Also, turning back the clock to the 80's & 90's...I don't think the Breeders' Cup would ever have been a PRIMARY target for the connections of a horse in Europe, though the exceptional circumstances surrounding Goldikova last year understandably meant that the BC Mile was the most sought-after prize for her connections. It's a case of me hoping Excelebration wins as I see it...it's hard to be too confident concerning the long, hard season and the travelling involved, but I really want him to overcome all the barriers and bolt home! |
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that's Nick Mordin not me, mate
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haha
Well picked up though NG. NM should be embarrassed. |
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Win or lose he ignores a couple of facts.
Excelebration is as effective/almost as effective over 7f as over 1m so hardly lacks for speed This years QEII was not strongly run and he mullered them for pace. He may or may not get it right, but the reasoning is absolute mince. |
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I like reading Nick Mordin though I don't pay too much attention to him...he gets plenty of things way out!
Even those stats...they're wrong! There have been NINE French wins...he's probably overlooked the Jonathan Pease trained Spinning World. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeders'_Cup_Mile |
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'AOB and family believe they have found the key to this horse in holding him up for a late burst.'
very true Angel and could cost the race if the fractions are slow... |
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IMO of course !
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Totally agree. I can see him leaving it too late, expecting too much of the horse. That`s why i would change tactics and make the running. The horse seems to settle ok.
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If they think they've just found the 'key'...that's balls, as he's always been a decent horse - it's quite obvious to us all...AVOID FRANKEL and he wins!
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Not since 1995 (Ridgewood Pearl) has there been a British or Irish winner, so whatever way we look at this...it's a damning statistic!
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Nick Mordin continually tells us that strategies need to be updated each year as things change from year to year with betting patterns.Surely this applies to the stats as well,as pointed out by certain races being targeted that wouldn't have been before.
To sum up I don't think his stats are much help these days,and his recent records in the Breeders are not too good. Like ALL tipsters and pundits let them publish their P+L,then we can judge what their abilities are. If successful his selections will be overbacked making a new strategy necessary,if using his way. |
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Yes NG
Trying to keep tabs with Frankel was against the horses interests. Holding him up to beat everything else is their idea of the `key` |