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I know you have to ignore his last run where they crawled but surely he has the form to win.
In the Prince of Wales he was eased close home but still beat Farhh. Farhh then finished alongside Moonlight Cloud and nearly got back up on the line. Moonlight Cloud was unlucky to be beaten at all by Excelebration where she finished only head in front of Caspar Netscher and next time proved she was unlucky beating Caspar Netscher 9 lengths. So there is a good chance the Excelebration form is all wrong.
His 3 runs last year were a win in the Dante then beaten narrowly in the Derby and Irish Derby. This season won the Brig Gerard Stakes and then finished 2nd in the Prince of Wales giving So You Think a scare.
Considering Excelebration has the beating of the other main contenders in the Moonlight Cloud race then I think Carlton House is far too big a price.
In the Prince of Wales he was eased close home but still beat Farhh. Farhh then finished alongside Moonlight Cloud and nearly got back up on the line. Moonlight Cloud was unlucky to be beaten at all by Excelebration where she finished only head in front of Caspar Netscher and next time proved she was unlucky beating Caspar Netscher 9 lengths. So there is a good chance the Excelebration form is all wrong.
His 3 runs last year were a win in the Dante then beaten narrowly in the Derby and Irish Derby. This season won the Brig Gerard Stakes and then finished 2nd in the Prince of Wales giving So You Think a scare.
Considering Excelebration has the beating of the other main contenders in the Moonlight Cloud race then I think Carlton House is far too big a price.
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Not sure that a mile on soft ground is right for this horse and would be surprised if Excelebration is beaten. If you think Carlton House can win then I guess 10/1 is a big price but the place only market is the answer I feel if you want to back him.
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Thinly veiled Frankel isn't as good as Brigadier Gerard thread.
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It will take more than the Best Jockey on The Planet to get him home in front.
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How can that be a negative for Frankel, Apologist? He's already beaten Farhh by further than Excelebration ffs. I just think the form lines suggest he has a great chance, acts on the ground and runs best fresh.
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Suggest you jump in at 11/1 then and may your god go with you.
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Get on now if you fancy it, imo, as 'Sir Tom' might steal your price...
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Apologist
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You don't think I had a bet before I posted Felt?
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Think Sovereign Debt is the bet at prices loves track and ground could be an monster skinner.
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I didn't really see much easing down of Carlton House in the PoW where Farhh got no kind of run in the race and the drop back to a mile was a last resort for CH but regardless of the pace of the race last time he ran, if he can't win a Gr2 at a mile then a Gr1 against better horses like Excelebration and Cityscape doesn't look any easier.
I don't really think Carlton House is a genuine Gr1 horse and the overrating of So You Think made CH look better than he actually is and that's basically a bit one paced at the business end of races regardless of trip. If Carlton House ran in the first race on the card tomorrow at 2 miles I wouldn't be too surprised if he was still there at the finish but again just not having the turn of foot to win the race. |
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You could be right Ima but Farhh just pipped Reliable Man (POW Stakes) who was just pipped by St Nicholas Abbey (KG) who was just pipped by Farhh (Judd)who was just pipped by Moonlight Cloud(Moulin)who was desperately unlucky against Excelebration (JleM). All Group 1's. One is odds on the other was 12s.
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Sound logic as always Brig, I just think he's a bit soft, he hasn't often had his optimum conditions but this looks sure to suit, no excuses tomorrow
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for Carlton House that is
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I suppose what you have maybe found there is value brigust1 but it's only value if you have a chance of collecting, although some will argue that if you constantly find value over the course of time then you are backing horses that should be shorter than they are and so you wouldn't need as many to come in during that time in order to show a profit.
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some will argue
they would be right! not as if Carlton House @10/1 will be the only bet he ever makes! |
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Brig are you saying that your post will move the market?
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By some will argue I meant it as in "and the basis of their argument would be that." blah blah blah.
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No Felt, it mean't I concentrate on potential bets and obtaining prices and not posting my views on here, that was an afterthought. I had already done my own research and placed my bets then thought 'I wonder if anyone on here knew some different'. Some seem to put up their views every day but I just wanted to see what the replies were and if anyone had an inside view.
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Good luck to you.
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i despise the word proverbial, its a wrong un imo
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Don't think ground will suit this horse as much as it suits Elusive Kate and the fav.
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Excelebration form is exemplementry, he has won seven and finished 2nd to Frankel four times and 3rd to Frankel once (tried to take him on and got run out of 2nd late on). He is very reliable, the ground suits him, the distance is right, I can't see him getting beat. Carlton House has it all to do, especially over 8F even given the excuses put forward for the last race, so no way is he the proverbial 'good thing'. I can understand why some might want to chance him at 9/1 but not for me, I have him 3rd best on 10F form and bottom of the class on known 8F form.
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exemplary if you like frankels form
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Excelebration deserves to be favourite not because his form is good but because he has the beating of the others excluding Carlton House. I know CH looks slightly flawed after his last run but he was favourite for the Derby and the Irish Derby where they say he didn't stay. So he is not short on quality even given the 3 & 4 year olds (excluding Frankel) are a moderate bunch. He will have the stamina to handle the ground and the class to stay in touch. He wins when fresh and on form lines (hence proverbial good thing) through Farhh, St Nicholas Abbey and Moonlight Cloud has the beating of the favourite. Form is one thing, results are another. One is odds on the other was 12s. Makes sense to me.
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each way for me
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Ok, I'm coming around to the view Carlton house is worth a saver @ 9/1 with B365 (best price I can find now ), I've already placed my hand with Excelebration at just shy of evens. I get the point you are making with the line of form with Farhh which works if it translates for CH @ 8F. I'm assuming Moore won't go to the front again from the start!
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What a horse Excelebration looked today, I hope he takes the form to the Breeders Cup!
 Frankel officially retired.  |