Hypothetical horse racing situation - which is harder?

orse a

I was going to say that rev but it looks like a trap to me


photo finish imo

I very much doubt one could establish much in the way of preference when both horses have beaten a 70 top-rated field with the same weight and conditions in effect as handicapped horses are weighted in theory to blanket finish but in reality much does depend on if the distance was extremely short or long or if the conditions were difficult etc...

I would be more interested in the longer racing history and the current trainer form plus any track preferences before I decided to favor one over the other...

The weights suggest that the field B raced in was the weaker event last time out.
So horse A should prevail.

Well I would check a few thousand races before making the assumption that higher rated horses are better as this may be the case at short flat races but longer jumps races especially in soft to heavy conditions a lower weighted horse can have a huge advantage, so CP you are only correct dependent on unknown factors being in your favor!

oo, some replies :-)

bf-fanatic - all races are handicaps, all races run at same track, dist, conditions etc etc... as identical as can be.

compound magic - why do you think the weights indicate that raceB was the weaker event?

ta

bf_fanatic - all 5f races if that makes you happy

and hurry up because I've got to get to bed

Whoever has a crap in the paddock.

To have higher weights the horses must have either wins under their belt or are colt's racing against Fillies
Under the W.F.A. scale colts are allotted more weight than fillies even in non W.F.A. races.

I didn't fancy either of them because they were stepped up in class for the next race and were beaten comfortably 2 out. They were going to finish together but Jamie Spencer was booked for Horse A so unfortunately he never got going until too late.

Flat or Jumps? - distance?, going? Horse A is most circumstances but hard to be definitive without further info.

assuming both horses ran roughly the same times in their respective races (considering yyw is trying to make the results as similar as possible) then both horses should just about dead heat next time out, or at least finish very close to each other given that they are both once again running over the same course and distance and both carrying the same weight.

personally I wouldn't bet the dead heat but the form book says they should finish together.

we need closure here YYWE

indeed we do hello:-)


I'll post my thoughts after racing  - what's your opinion on this?

I left my opinion last nite , photo finish for me as a was stronger field but both beat a horse of same rating 70 so photo with A edging it tho conditions would determine who i bet on

As most are going for A ,the value clearly is with B ,and he has given weight away to more than A ,who was in the better race. It appears that A would be overbacked,so I am with B,but it is a close call,and may end up leaving it alone.

ok, bit of a gap in the racing now, so this is my take on things...

Just to clear any confusion - the horses are twins, it was the same jockey/trainer, the saddles came from the same cow, when the horse crossed the line they landed on the same blade of fecking grass!  Etc, etc, etc 


They both beat a 70 rated horse whilst carrying the same weight, so some may think they are equal, but I think you have to pay attention to the fact that in additional to the 70-rated horse, HorseA also beat other horses rated higher than himself (as indicated by the 86% of other horses who carried more weight than he did).  I wouldn't expect HorseA to win by a country mile, but I do think he has a slight edge and if I had to choose between the two, it would just be HorseA.

Thanks for all the (sensible) comments though.




he ran with the same weight as HorseB but beat

apologies hello:-), didn't realise you'd left an earlier comment.