Any advice on how to price up a race ??

sorry just having a bit of banter.

Mark Coton has a lot to answer for.

He brought out a book called "Value Betting" where he said that it's not winners you're looking for, it's value.
He reckoned that if you only bet horses that were "value" then you would make a profit long term.

Unfortunately a lot of racing pundits (TV and press) thought this was a great idea and most of them now constantly talk about value as if it is the great God of punting. 

They now believe that it is better backing 6 losers at good value rather than 6 winners at poor value.

well like i said i try to back all runners bar one who i think wont lead as many people lay them as they think there beaten so get a little better odds in running for then get on to cover the feild so dont lose i win more then lose as its said you can have the best horse in the world and they get beat

I wouldn't have a clue, even where to start, sorry

pittsburgh phil wrote a very good blog on how to turn ratings into a book

the formula is

=(1/(horse rating/sum of ratings))*85/100

gives you a price for that particular horse. The 85/100 can be varied - in this example it gives you roughly a 115% book

Is imace taking the p1ss here?

Zealot your at the wrong place, you can't just start asking how do i make a book
It's like  saying how do I charge a gear box, without any experience.

pittsburgh phil wrote a very good blog on how to turn ratings into a book

the formula is

=(1/(horse rating/sum of ratings))*85/100

gives you a price for that particular horse. The 85/100 can be varied - in this example it gives you roughly a 115% book

how is it taking the p1ss we all have imput i use to look for a value bet spent thousands on racing book files each month to update it not very cheep and then you pull the last 5 years out to study a race to your own odds with the draw how much they carry distance were they had ran going odd they had bin ratings wether wind running on down the field true pace jockey trainer had it ever had a true chance before but you dont realy now how the hores s on te day of the race so you might have the winner but it did not run very well coz it had a nock on the leg the night before and so on  and years of that it do pay off but very much time taken up doing it you miss out on all the things in portent life so easyer to find a quick way around it but ask your self one thing thats a hores has to win or make place at least 10 a year for a small trainer to feed it and look after it and train it so he make money some were win or lose so more then one is a gr8 thing i dont take mick out of any one just give what i now out and use it to your own peal

you seem to find that post slightly humorous motley - it wasn't meant to be

I don't know how to charge a gearbox either

Imace, it's just having a laugh, no one means any malice. You just cant't start pricing up races, you
have to know what you are looking at in that market, it's built up over years of experience and ricks. The maths
are the easy bit. It's pricing the horse or individual right, or spotting something that's overpriced,
If your the punter. So the starting point is knowledge of your market.

Outpost 08 Aug 12 14:33 Joined: 10 Apr 09 | Topic/replies: 3,245 | Blogger: Outpost's blog
Mark Coton has a lot to answer for.

He brought out a book called "Value Betting" where he said that it's not winners you're looking for, it's value.
He reckoned that if you only bet horses that were "value" then you would make a profit long term.

Unfortunately a lot of racing pundits (TV and press) thought this was a great idea and most of them now constantly talk about value as if it is the great God of punting. 

They now believe that it is better backing 6 losers at good value rather than 6 winners at poor value.

Excellent point.

Outdated concept now with exchanges and so on - horses that look bigger than they should be are often that price for a reason.

Both Nevison and Veitch have both adjusted their approach to factor this in over the last few years (according to their books anyway).

No I can't fix a box either, I'd have to get some experience wouldn't I?  When I read, "pittsburgh Phil
said" and his formula is ,I nearly pi-ssed myself. By the way who the fcuk is pittsburgh phil

Value for me, don't always stick to it, but I should. But I can't bet a horse I fancy  if it's 7-4 when I think it should be 5-1. I don't take 10-1 if I can get 16's. I don't pay £5 for a cup of coffee.

the touted logic is, price a race and back the ones that are too high in the odds compared to your tissue,but this isnt allowing for drifters ,which tend to loose,yet as they d gone big odds you may have backed them ,or lower odds ones, due to  alot of bets or shrewd punters having backed them ,these ones you wouldnt back as they would be to short ,yet more likely to win,

just back the one you believe as the best form - odds are irrelevant(unless way too high or way too low)

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/bloggers/simon-rowlands/post-222-040...

why bother wasting your time betfair markets are very accurate...will be a pointless exercise for you

Zealot it may be better to start by pricing up football or other sports first to try and get an idea. Buy Value Betting or 100 Hints, both by Mark Coton. As others say these books were before Betfair but they are good reads. Basically give points to each horse in a race so that by thye time you finish the figure should be 100, switch that figure to odds ie 50 is evens etc. If one of your horses price is 10% bigger than your tissue then either look again or bet it. No matter how easy it becomes to make a book, you will go skint if you cannot get a strong grip off the form. Remember Coton gave up gambling to go back to lecturing.

thanks for the replies lads .

been doing ok laying , what i think , underpriced LTO winners .

But only get on average , 2 per day .

Aug 8, 2012 -- 3:57PM, quepasa wrote:

why bother wasting your time betfair markets are very accurate...will be a pointless exercise for you

at what point are these markets accurate? sp's? 5 mins before the off

becasue the variances are huge sometimes so if making a book can give u an entry point

this would be a great tool if you could do it with decent accuracy

if your just a punter then yea go with the market

I dont agree that the price on betfair is totally accurate just before the off -

The average punter still likes to back the horses that won LTO and/or dettori etc etc

well zealot, lets look at the 17:10 newcastle

piste is a winner lto

ill back @6.4 now

lets see how much the market moves for this particulare winner lto

if your right the punters will make its price drop

id be happy with a couple of ticks

could already get out with a tick , but ill wait till closer to the off

iam -

surely you aint trying to judge a value lay after only 1 selection ?

no just giving it a try for shts and giggles

if your trading on these and not straight lays then you woould want a good strike rate

so hopefully i have a much more than 50-50 chance

you want a good strike rate on straight lays aswell of course

For a bit of fun I will price up the 730 at Kempton and put it on in half hour.

Aug 8, 2012 -- 4:56PM, Steamship wrote:

For a bit of fun I will price up the 730 at Kempton and put it on in half hour.

good sht

ok steamy - sound

the punters dont like this winner lto at the mo

got my 2 ticks in the end there

ahh now its flew down

could have had 5 ticks

going with the same idea

17:15 yarm has no fav jockeys and no winners lto

so will the punters jump on the fav cos nothing else stands out?

backed @3.9

i predict the odds will shorten

ill go for 3 ticks this time

Will you be laying them as well, steamship

i didn't have mishrif at a 3/1 shot here more like 7/1

i went batgirl but its gone in the other direction

scrap that around 5/1 with non runners

got a nice green there

but i kept it in play like a pleb

well that went well lol

you wanna venture a false price on the 17:20 stride?

will have a look

nah focus on the 17:30

oh the 5:20 lol

too late

we have a winner last to and a fav jockey in fanning

will they both shorten ?

i will attempt

charity box back @2.98
sujet bellagio back @5.5

2 ticks each would be nice

DONE

that 4 ticks in total

i realise it could just be coincedance and nout to do with my thought process of course

nothing stands out there, if i had to lay one it would be ambitious boy.

but at 10/1 not the 17/1 it is now

could of laid in play i seen it go the 5's i think

730 Kemp

London Citizen 35 = 2.82 bet at 2.86
Blazing Knight 32 = 3.26 bet at 3.6
Masarah        17 = 6    bet at 6.6
Stupenda       14 = 7    bet at 7.6
H Fair          3 = 33   bet at 38

So I think LC will win the race but I would not bet below 2.86.
I will place £10 on these prices now and see what happens.
See you all after the race.

Blazing Knight matched at 4.1 £10

same here

can't see a bet in 5:40

18:00

i predict hurriocane spirit will shorten

backed @ 8.2

will go for 4 ticks

trainers first flat winner for over 5 years (from few runners) in last race, pattern mark.

rP price 13/2 went off 4.4 on here

sometimes the price looks too good to lay

horse had good course form so i didn't fancy the lay.

booom job done laid @7.4

predicting a movement is as satifying as predicting a winner

my thinking was silly or not

punters will forgive the 9 lto due to the other winns previously

and the horse has a posative name so the dosile punter will be drawn to it

rawaki at 2.56 looks to short 6:00 kempton

agree i think s few ticks for the taking there

to late

hurracaien spirit has come well down

8.2 i backed

i prefer to lay exposed handicappers so rawaki is more risky

may have made an error here even though price looks too short

hope i get away with it.

2.26

no way would anyone price this up at 5/4

hes come right down

got to be value in the lay

im laying using my greens from hurricae spirit

fav has broke loose and will be withdrawn

went through stalls

sligo 18:10

chips are down will shorten cos dosile punters will be attracted to the word chip = comfort addiction food

backed @2.38

don't even look at the oirish muck

they seem to be able to blatantly school their runners more over there

boom just got 4 ticks

might be something to this

Stupenda matched at 7.6 £10

18:20

albaspina to shorten

backed @ 1.98

This thread has morphed from it's original intention >

- into merely a Personal Trading Diary.

Sadly - this happens far too often on Forum threads.

this forum has been ambushed

its merley evolved

blossomed if you will

anyway i might be onto something here im predicitng some nice moves here

based on a trigger happy non thinking punter pov

3 ticks on albaspina

i shall give no more predictions

Masarah now matched at 6.6 in this 730

Aug 8, 2012 -- 5:33PM, Steamship wrote:

730 KempLondon Citizen 35 = 2.82 bet at 2.86Blazing Knight 32 = 3.26 bet at 3.6Masarah        17 = 6    bet at 6.6Stupenda       14 = 7    bet at 7.6H Fair          3 = 33   bet at 38So I think LC will win the race but I would not bet below 2.86.I will place £10 on these prices now and see what happens.See you all after the race.

.

Looks like Im way out on these prices. Best results are

Stupenda 43.79
Masarah 34.27
Blazing Knight 10.52.

I hope Zealot is still following this thread.

i have a choice to red out now or leave in play

red on what horse?

wow just greened for 25p across the market

london citizen i was sweatimg on

cos steam predicted .86 id laid at 2.54

this time next year

blazin knight done the biz there

well that conludes a good day for me

steamy - looks like the thread has lost the plot

well done on the 730 tho

rule of thumb

you can look at the market till your blue in the face and it means nothing in an idividual race .

you can only hope over time you are accurate enough to gain an edge on the market

Thanks Zealot. It was just to show one of the ways I use. Could have easily been £30 down if the Fav had won, but if I had placed 1 bet on the race it would not have been the winner, I think this is where value comes into play.

ttt

choose a race for tommorow and i'll tell you