CHIEF PREVIEW

Good piece Chief. Good luck with your selection.

Schoolboy error, forgot race details 15.25    ASCOT
The form of King Of jazz's run you refer to has not worked out well.
I have Excellent Guest top rated, but will select Bonnie Brae for the race.
Best of luck mate!

Good tipping, I did King of Jazz to place when it drifted out.

Backed King of Jazz for a place at 9/2, great odds . Cheers Chief.

1.30 York - Class 2 handicap 10F G/S

Step 1 - Class

There are seven class 2 winners in this handicap which given the the 14 runners left in this handicap after the two early non-runners makes for quite a strong looking class 2 handicap to start the dante meeting of with and a 110 rating is required to win this handicap on the book which five of the runners in this handicap havent mustered a effort of that quaility on the ratings (weight adjusted), however the five runners all are 4yo and could well still have improvement in their locker to obtain a handicap run of that amount to go close in this handicap today so I cant discount them on ratings alone, however Romeo Montague has had 16 runs now throughout his career and has failed to get that score even though he returned this season in good form when running well on the all-weather and maybe just could creep in.

Area Fifty One has had 10 runs so far but is improving at the moment so he may also get in and the other 3 are impossiable to discount with Kirthill, Flag Officer and Gatewood all unexposed runners.


The two that need to bounce back to their best rating scores are the 74 run Suits Me (still higher then highest turf win) and Northside Prince. Suits Me hasnt really had the same conditions as the Newbury run last time he put in a performance to win an event like this but he has run better races when on the all weather and the pontefracht run last time doesnt have as much barring on this course as the newbury run and it wasnt totally awful so I will keep him in on this basis. Northside Prince last run was poor as he tailed off and that has to be a concern with Doncaster not being too disimiliar to this york track and he has ran well at doncaster before so something must have gone very wrong with him an maybe it was the soft conditions that day and with the ground highly likley to be on the soft side of good I would imagine the same happening so I will discount his chanes on that. The more exposed runners Space War has yet to record a win above class 4 and looks to just be below a top handicapper in my view with a record of 0-7 in class 2 & 0-5 in class 3 handicap so heis discounnted as well.



Step 2 - Jockey Booking


Suits Me has the booking of Richard Hughes for David Barron which isnt a regular combination given the length of time both have been in the game and the record stands at 0-5, Suits me has been paired with Micky fenton mostly in the past for the majority of his wins, while in recent runs Ted Durcan or Jamie Spencer has been used and Jamie Spencer rides his stablemate in this and given his record of 24% for the yard I would imagine Richard Hughes has more then likely picked up a spare as Richard Hannon hasnt got a runner in the first and Im prepared to pass Suits me over based on the yards jockey bookings.

Joe Fanning hasnt got the best of records when riding for Ed Dunlop but given the regular jockeys for the horse I would say Joe booking is one of a more experienced rider being required for the bigger races.


Step 3 - Fittness




The remaining 11 runners in this handicap sees four having their first runs of the season and the first of those Area fifty one flopped on maiden debut as a 2yo and then improved massivly for the experience in which he was given time before running again and his record fresh is most probably better judged on the fact he finished 2nd at Kempton after a break in the summer of 2011 in which he finished 2nd of a mark of 76 which is only 11lbs lower then today's mark and he seemed to improve for racing last season so I would imagine he will improve for the run again this season unless he can be deemed as well  handicapped with improvement maybe likely to come as he finished the season off last year winning well at Nottingham, however this is much tougher then that handicap and he will need to hav improved and be ready at the first time of asking so I believe he will be better after the run.


Kirthill comes from a yard that gives their runners little racing so the likely hood is that he will know his task at the first time of asking as this lightly raced 4yo has only had 8 runs to date, he started well in his maiden sticking on well in a doncaster maiden over seven furlongs when finishing 2nd and when he reappeared the following spring he faded tamely suggesting he needed the run that day in a maiden at Newbury. The fact he was then given another 2 month in which he won well suggested to me that maybe he needed to grow up a little and the trainer does do much better with horses as they get older in getting them ready. I believe Kirthill will be ready for this today.


Flag Officer has very little form in the book to know whether the will be ready to go today, however his 2yo form suggested that he was very professional and didnt take too much work to get him ready, The run at Newmarket last season which saw him well beaten was maybe more down to the course then the fittness side of things and Godolphin have started the season well and he should be ready to go today.


Gatewood is the least exposed runner in the race having made debut as a 4yo and maybe was slow to come to hand and given the fact that he ran with so much response that day I think he will turnout to be a horse that is best fresh and he didnt need to improve to beat a field fall of maidens next time out at Sailsbury when turned out quickly and maybe the next run was a little bit too soon. mirrored has a fantastic record fresh but shouldnt be discounnted having already run this season as he has often done wll when turned out quickly in the past.


Step 4 - Discounnting those that need ratling fast ground



Majestic Dream has been mainly run on rattling ground and has performed much better then when contesting going with soft in the title and he discounnted on that factor given he has had 17 runs to his name already and all four with soft in the title has been over a stone light of his best. Gatewood is bred to handle ground with soft in the title and could improve more, while dubai Destination offsprings have a good record on going with soft in the description so Flag Officer should be able to perform as well on ground with give as he did when winning here on good ground. Labrinto is the one I cant be certain of discounting as his soft ground maiden win was a very poor event ad the 2nd has not recorded a win yet so didnt need to be anywhere near his best to win that, since then he improved for better ground and the next time he encountered soft was over a trip short of his best and also first run for the yard with a fresh record of 0-3 for a yard that doesnt really kick on until may, but that effort was very poor and I have resevartions about the ground, but cant totally discount with other factors maybe taking its toll on him, but for this race the Dansil Colt is passed over as maybe he is at his highest in terms of ability.



Step 5 - Course & trip


Seven left in for stage 5, this 10 furlongs over a flat galloping track really is one of th fairess tracks in the country and the five furlong home run will allow any running type have a chance if good enough and front runners can do well at this track if allowed to dictate. Courses such as this Newbury and Doncaster really allow long striding gallopers to excel and is likely to be won by a horse who truely stays 10 furlongs on those types of tracks while stiffer galloping tracks such as Newmarket will see those types who excel over 10 furlongs staying on more ne paced as those with a finishing kick should excel on this track, so I would say 9 furlong specialist at newmarket and sailsbury for instances would be better suited, Chester and other sharp track winners over 10 furlong may find others staying on better as their lungs start to burst from the gallop of this track, but overal it is the fairest of tracks suiting most types.


New Hampshire I feel may not stay well enough on this track over 10 furlongs having finished 2nd in a small muddling afair last time at Ripon and he is maybe best over the sharper ten furlongs he has been encounting,his only effort to note over 10 furlongs on a galloping track was hi maiden win at Newmarket which was in a average maiden event on the july course and then when he was stepped into a more competitive event at doncaster he was bitterly disapointing but at the same time he may have had the edge taken off from the break he had and he stayed on that day as a tired horse and I believe he will be seen to better effect on sharper ten furlongs or over a mile at Newmarket in handicap company.


Mirrored is exposed and all wins have come over 8f to 10F and for this level he needs to be running over 10 furlongs for which he encounters today and he finishes well over this trip in the final 3rd so it is surprising that his record at this course is 0-3 but he is yet to run over 10 furlongs at this track and can be forgiven his effort on each time at this track having been outpaced over a mile twice and the last over 12 furlongs which would have stretched his stamina and the saddle slipped so he cant be dsicounnted on this track over this trip.


Right step is a regular over this trip having recorded his only win over Epsom 10 furlong last time out a course that suits him well and in fact his 3 best performances have come twice there and the other here in the last 12 runs he has contested so that bodes well for him in this event today ashe comes in good form today.The course isnt the most ideal for him in th finish as he doesnt poses a strong kick in the final quarter of the race to stretch on to land the race as he does at Epsom downhill finish, but he should be thereabouts.


Sirvino has 4 wins over10 furlongs and one over 12 Furlongs and that win over further came on the sharper turning track of Windsor and he has a bit of pace about him for this 10 furlongs of York and it really is ideal race for him today so he should have everything in favor for a big run today.


Romeo Montague isnt certain to be suited to this track on past galloping track efforts and his placed efforts at doncaster where at a lower level and his best form in recent runs has been over further in which were recorded on sharper tracks and he is most probably better passed over for this I feel.


Kirthill is a resloute galloper with a win over a mile at Newmarket and a win over 10 furlongs at Newbury last october and should have everything in favor for a big run in this handicap with both in his favor as he does posses a turn of foot over this trip which is needed today.


Flag Officer gave a good account of himself here last season where he just hung away his chance over a furlong out and then could only muster the one pace, he is by dubai destination so 10 furlongs should be ideal on breeding, but I feel he may well need a stiffer finish to a race or 2F more around here and I beliebe others will be stronger in the final quarter.


Gatewood will be better ove further I feel having stayed on well over 10 furlongs at Ascot and on breeding will get stronger for the stiffer tests of stamina, a debut over 10 furlongs at Windsor suggested that they felt this 3yo will progress into a stayer as he didnt make debut until 3yo and given how he went away from some smart rivals in his maiden at Sailsbury over 10 furlongs really suggested that the stiffer the test the better for him. 86 could wel be a shade low given the 2nd from that maiden performances since (97 rated now) but I dont think we will see the true potential of him until he is stepped up in trip again, still he is unexposed and could be dangerously handicapped.

Step 6 - Shortlist

5 make the shortlist



Mirrored (20/1 General) - More exposed then many in this handicap but has been running well, the latest run maybe not the best example but did well the time before at Pontefracht and has alot in favor for this handicap today in which he can produce his best effort at york.


Right Step (9/1 Spoils & PP) - Comes here having won latest and could well follow up, things are likley to be much tougher having to carry a penalty but he has ran well here before, 9-1 however might be a little bit on the shortside needind a personal best but like many this 5yo may have toughed up for the short spin over hurdles this winter.


Sirvino (12/1 VC) - Quite surprised to see this 12-1 on offer for a course and distance winner from a yard that is double handed in this event today, wasnt disgraced last time at epsom behind Right step and is a two time winner in this class bracket. The 7yo is vulnable to a progressive rival but should be thereabouts today with 3 of his wins coming in the month of May, is it really totally out of the question for him to be able to win of 100 at the age of 7yo??


Kirthill (8/1Spoils & Lads) - Decent chance on the book if ready to go at the first time of asking, no need to worry about the track suiting and him seeing this galloping 10 furlongs out well given his profile, he may have top weight but he is lightly raced and could be improving to become listed and group class.


Gatewood (7/1 Billys & Lads) - Looks a stayer but could be well handicapped for this as he has only seen the racecourse 3 times, all runs have come over today's trip but surely this Galieo colt could be very much seen to bette light over 12F to 16F this season. 7/1 might be a little short to find out as I would want 10-1 in this field to see if he has enough in hand to overcome the sharpish trip for him this season in my view.


Verdict - The Epsom form for me is likely to be turned around with Sirvino having the beating of Right step on this galloping 10 furlongs and the 7yo is the best of the exposed bunch in front of mirrored in my view. the two unexpsoed runners have sight question marks over fittness and Gatewood the test of stamina and with that in mind I can see Sirvino coming out on top over this 10F and prepared to give him the go in this at double figure price.


Selection Sirvino 1pt @ 12-1

Stow I remembered to post the race title this time. Hope your well

York
Going: Good
1:30 | 13 Gatewood (William Buick, 13-2 2nd-fav); 14 Romeo Montague (J Fanning, 22-1 ); 2 Sirvino (J P Spencer, 10-1 ); 14 ran. 7 Flag Officer (L Dettori, 4-1 fav);

Non-runners: Rumh; Reve De Nuit;
Distances: 1½ lengths; ¾ length;
Winning trainer: J H M Gosden.
Tote: £6.30; £3.10; £6.90; £3.80; Exacta: £168.80; Swinger: £27.80; Swinger: £35.00; Swinger: £13.50; CSF: £146.71; Tricast: £1,420.54;

3:25 | 18 Global Village (T P O'Shea, 9-1 2nd-fav); 7 Bonnie Brae (R L Moore, 11-1 ); 5 King Of Jazz (Hayley Turner, 14-1 ); 3 Brae Hill (T Hamilton, 20-1 ); 24 ran. 15 Tariq Too (E Ahern, 8-1 fav);

Distances: ¾ length; 1¼ lengths; ½ length;
Winning trainer: B Ellison.
Tote: £10.00; £3.30; £2.60; £3.10; £4.90; Exacta: £110.10; Trifecta: £2,335.00; Swinger: £28.10; Swinger: £50.50; Swinger: £37.50; CSF: £91.39; Tricast: £894.06;


Crossbars so far

P/L -2pts

Next preview -3.00 Hambleton Stakes York Listed Handicap Thursday 17th May 2012

Step 1 - Class

We start with the look at the make up of the handicap and in this race we only have one winner of a listed class race in Titus Millls and the suggestion is that this handicap is more class 2 then a true listed type of handicap as no group winners take their place in this handicap and with seven class 2 winners in the race from the last 2 years suggest that a rating of 112 is needed to win this handicap and just 3 runners havent obtained that mark in which Beizque is passed over straight away having seen her only once and she trailed in, that could be harsh but their are too many question marks and little to go on so a watching brief is best used, while Sos Brillante has been highly tried but still falls below this level I feel and is passed over as she has had many tries already and the only one who hasnt obtained a rating is the other fillie in the race who is open to improvement at 4yo and having had seven runs so she makes the cut.


The next part would be the exposed runners who have suffered in this class in the past but they all have won at class 2 level so there is no discounting any on that basis and those that have obtained a mark arent heavily tried or a 4yo so entitled to improve. Navajo Chief has got to bounce back to his best as he has the strongest form at the weights in this race on ratings but hasnt shown much in recent runs but showed some life when fourth at Doncaster last time to suggest he is on his way back in a listed stakes race and he wouldnt be the first horse to suffer for overseas racingin Dubai as he was below par then, so has everychance of bouncing back and stays in.


Step 2 - Jockey Bookings

Invisiable man is a non-runner for this, while the rest of the runners look to have positive jockey bookings of those left in with Ryan Moore on board Fury for william Haggas a eye catching booking, while Adam Kirby for Alan Jarvis a interesting booking as well. So none are discounnted on this sector.

Step 3 - Ground Dependant


A dry day on day one and the ground is likely to be good racing ground so those who require to get their toe firmly in may find things happening a little too quick and the only one I can soundly discounnt is the remaining mare Neutarfa who improved for testing going after she stayed on strongly on good to firm ground at musselbrugh in which she stayed on strongly after the winner had got first run suggesting that maybe things happened a little too fast for her.


Step 4 - Fittness

10 runners are left in and half of them is making their first run for over 100 days. We start with Richard Fahey Common Touch who has been off for best part of a year and has a solid record fresh winning a york maiden as a 2yo and travelled well last season when only just failing at Beverley over seven furlongs and then progressed after that to make into a decent handicapper over seven furlongs and looking at his profile he should be ready at the first time of asking in my view. Miljhaar is another that has won fresh and really has had a light campagin having seen the race course only 4 times and he was late coming to hand in his 2yo days only running once and didnt really need to improve on that when returning at Haydock last season, he was given time in between his racing and is very unexposed and could be open to all kind of improvement.


Trade Storm has won fresh when winning a conditions race and that was a small field, looking at his profile he looks the sort to improve for racing and is most probably likely to come on for the run here and unless the 4yo has strengthened up massivly over the winter I cant see him having enough in the book to win maybe 90% fit for this today and is discounnted. Bridgefield has never won on absence over 100 days but has finished placed on 3 occassions and that suggest to me he is suited to being a fresh horse and cant be discounted given the facility he has with his strong connections and should be ready, while the cambridgshire winner Prince of Johanne is having his first run since his big day and Tom Tate did wonders with him last season suggesting that he improved as a 5yo and maybe was well handicapped when winning fresh for the first time last season which he edged left under the whip before settling it comfortablly and I feel he will improve for todays run fitness wise and will pass him over for this.

Step 5 - Course & trip

Seven make it to stage five and this mile will be suited to those types that enjoy a end to end gallop with very unlikely to have too many hard luck stories given the size of the track.  Given the size of the field and the fact that the pace isnt overlystrong with maybe Titus Mills making the running I would imagine a horse that excel over seven furlongs to a mile on a flat galloping track will have a good chance, while shiffer galloping track horses over a mile are likely to want a stronger pace to win around this track in my view.


Navarjo Chief - four wins have been over seven furlongs and a mile so the trip should be ok, while he is a course and distance winner having stayed on well to win here last season and could well be in the thick of things today given that his wins in this country have been Haydock, Doncaster & York so he is very much at home under today's conditions. He makes the shortlist here.


Common Touch - Wins over six and in the main seven furlongs and a hatrick of his wins have come at this track, The only time he contested a mile was at ascot which to be fair he was very one paced and didnt stay a mile in a big handicap at that track, he could well stay this mile at York given how he stayed on over seven furlongs here on a couple of occassions on similiar type of ground so he makes the shortlist here.


Justonefortheroad - In great form at the moment and is looking for a hatrick today having won twice over seven furlongs so far this spring, he stays a mile and enjoys a galloping track on form having won over 7F here. He has form at Ayr over a mile which suggest he should stay this far, even though he has won that race at a much lower level then this today, he did run a fair race in this last year off 95. Shortlist here

Fury - has run well in all the big handicaps this season and each one has been over a straight mile in which today he has to contend with a bend which in the main he is kept away from. both wins have come over seven furlongs and last run over 9F on a stiff track he stayed on for place money just proving that he is form at the moment and I dont think he gets the trip there, I would like to see him back over seven furlongs on a stiff track or he is one to keep in mind for Royal Ascot and the mile handicap or seven furlong race. im not sure if he is going to reliesh this test even though the Newbury run was his best effort and there is some form pattern to this track suiting.

Stevie Thunder - Ran ok in the lincon and no run latest at Thirsk where he didnt respond to pressure so there is some concerns, but on the Galloing track on Doncaster he wasnt far off and can maybe be forgiven the run last time. The Ripon win in August he slightly scrambled home after previously winning on the stiffer track of Newmarket and a winner over 7F in his earlier years he does seem to need a stiffer test of stamina given his runs over a mile at Newmarket in which a strong pace and the track brought him close to winning the Cambridgeshire and he is passed over for this.

Mijhaar - Little to go on as he was tried over further all last season and takes a drop in trip for this today and given the breeding of the horse im not entiley sure it is what he needs, however he does tend to make the running with his increased stamina and given how he folded when hitting the front twice last season suggested that he was at the end of his stamina, he was impressive when winning over 10 Furlongs at Haydock in which he made the running that day and could well adopt the same tactics, his defeat in his maiden at newbury was more down to being green and in the description it says quickens, which I would suggest if he was dictate the pace today he could well kick and stretch them over this galloping mile, he does look like he needs a galloping track and york should suit. So he makes the final shortlist.

Bridgefield - wins over 7F and 8F at Doncaster in his maiden beating kirthill and then at Newmarket over a mile as a 3yo in which he handled the dip and stiff finish well and needed that full mile and when he was dropped back in trip for the next two runs he was below his best in those with maybe Goodwood effort against a horse he had previosuly beaten finding it easy to reverse the form that day and he was under pressure over seven furlongs at the 2F poll before being eased and this step back to 8F is likely to be ideal. I would prefer maybe a stiffer mile for his chances but he handles a bend and could well be in the mix, but I feel othes will be quicker where it counts.

Titus Mills - Showed little last time at kempton in a decent listed race in which he was outpaced over a sharp mile and the time before he led at Newmarket before being headed and not staying the nine furlong in group class company, his wins over seven furlongs have been won under pressure, while his performance in the racing post trophey as a 2yo he finished well down the field in company too strong for him and he then missed the entire campagin in 2011, The 8F here today he should give  better account of himself as its stiffer then the kempton test but he is looking like a hard horse to place I feel at this level.

Step 6 - Shortlist

Mijhaar 11/4 (vc, blue cude- Could well make all after dropping back in trip and should be ready at the first time of asking given his lightly raced profile, the 11-4 is a little short based on the facts that several make the shortlist but of those that make the shortlist he has much more improvement to come based on the fact he is so lighly raced and isnt that inferior to the other 3 on the ratings

Navajo Chief 10/1 (General) - Adam Kirby booking isnt a concern for the yard even though Fallon being his regular jockey has deserted him for the Cumani runners, but he has alot in favor for this having run well over CD and being well in at the weights on the ratings obtainned, he does need to refind his best form and that is reflected into his price.

Justonefortheroad 8/1 (general) - Is really in the form of his life but came into this race last year after a win and was slightly unlucky not to have finished closer as he didnt have much room at a vital time, however he is higher in the weights this time around given 99 mark which is 4lbs higher then what he failed off last year and at 8/1 I would be more of a player on Navajo Chief .

Common Touch 14/1 (boils & slybet)- Richard Fahey is double handed and fredrick Tylicki gets the unexposed ride today on this returning gelding by Compton Place and should be fit for the run. He has progrssed nicley over seven furlongs and is contesting a mile for the second time, but given the way he has finished his races he could well enjoy this mile to dispell any concerns of stamina limitations.


Verdict - Justonefortheroad reprsents no value at 8-1 to see if he can win off a higher mark here and Mijhaar is all unknown potential to be backed at 11-4 given the changes I feel obliged to swerve him in a bid for more value and that leaves Common Touch and Navajo Chief at 14-1 & 10-1 and I can see why Common touch is a bigger price being unconfirmed stamina wise as on breeding often sprinters are best from the sire in early years, also there is the fact of the absence even though he has proven well fresh in the past and Richard Fahey is a man to stay on side of at this track. However NAVAJO CHIEF proved in a listed race at Doncaster last time that he has still got the ability in him nd at 5yo can still win off  a mark of 100 and at 10-1 is the play.




Selectiion - Navajo Chief 1pt win @ 10-1 (general)

2.00 York -Jorvik Stakes handicap class 2


1 - Sadeek's Song 9st 7lbs- Should be top weight for this after the Brilliant Leicester Performance beating Colombian of John Gosdon and was massivly raised in the weights, the trip suits him and the yard will have him right for this today having given him a stiff test first time up this season at Headquarters and the less testing stamina of York should suit him. Concern is that he doesnt have anything that stands himout against the others in the field at the weights on my ratings.




2 - Kinryas 9st 6lbs - Comes in next on my weights as he made a impression when winning at Goodwood last season over 11 furlongs when with Sir Michael Stoute and the fact that he has bee transfered out of Sir Michael Stoute yard it maybe is a suggestion that the horse has gone the wrong way and this high rating maybe wont be repeatted unless Mick Easterby can work his magic, however he is best passed over with stamina maybe a issue on this galoping 12 furlongs.




3 - Crackentop 9st 4lbs - Still looks well handicapped as he just has to carry 8 stone 9lbs for this handicap today and if he can refind his form that he showed last season as a 5yo he could well win again over this 12 furlongs at York and he has much in favor and is the choice of David Allan for Tim Easterby who is double handed in this handicap. This is his first run for 195 days off the track, but he hasput in good efforts on first run back in the past and he makes the shortlit. (9lbs in)




4 - War Poet 9st 4lbs - Only Had 9 runs for a 5yo and returned in good fashion this season at Doncaster to post a personal best and is on a upwards curve at present so has to be considered for this with the extra 2 furlongs on less testing conditions giving the suggestion that he may well stay the trip today to good effect as he stuck on well and makes the shortist. (6lbs in)




5 - High Office 9st 3lbs - Retunring for first run of the season but has a decent record fresh and seems to be the first choice on the stable bookings for the Richard Fahey yard and he does have a bit in his favor with a flat galloping trck likely to suit him today. Handles Good ground and has a chance with a big field likely to play to a strong gallop for his stamina to come into play. (11lbs In)




6 - Easy Terms 9st 3lbs - Has progressed well returning in good form to win her 5th race by 5yo and she really loved the heavy going last time at pontefracht in a small field and her and james Sullivan get on very well and she could well continue her progression but she does look a little bit better over the shorter trip.




7 - Waldvogel 9st 2lbs - Has plenty in favor given he has form in the book when returning from hurdling overthis C&D and the majo concern for this 20 run maiden is if he retains the ability at 8yo with that form coming some time ago. He is most probably best passed over for this on his return to the track as this looks plenty competitive for him.




8 - Tepmokeo 9st 2lbs - Won this last year and has plenty in favor with it the likely target given that he won this fresh last year and he has tipped himself back down to a mark that would see him going well as he is only 6yo and eveychance that he retains the ability of old, but he does need to bounce back to form here and maybe hasnt quite got enough in hand given the others in the race.




9 - Caucas 9st 1lbs - Best run was the last run and he maybe is handicapped just up to his best despite the fact that he is coming in here of the same mark as his run at Newmarket last time and he could well improve for the less stiff test of stamina given the good racing ground very much likely to suit him today so no excuses can be made on the ground, however others look better handicapped and this 5yo I dont think has enough improvement to come.




10 - Spifer 9st 1lbs - Is well handicapped and this lightly raced 4yo is very much likely to improve having only run five times and he has much in his favor to confirm the form with Bride belle who meets him on better terms, but Spifer who is lightly raced could well be ready at the first time of asking to do himself justice and makes the shortlist. (6lbs well in)




11 - Warlu Way 9st 1lbs - Has much in favor after running well last time out at Newmarket at the end of last season and the john Dunlop runner could still have some improvement as a 5yo. The track should suit him having ran well at Haydock on previous occassions and he could well be one to add to the shortlist, however he is likely to come on for the run I feel.




12 - Lyric Street 9st 1lbs - Seems to be best caught on first run and this 4yo by Hurricane Run could viablly still have improvement to come, but I would imagine it will be a slow process given how lightly ran he is. Adam Kirby is booked for this first attempt over 12 Furlongs for his first run for Ed Dunlop and on breeding he should be suited to this 12F trp. he was tried over further as a 3yo when with Cumani and didnt stay that far, maybe somewhere inbetween is where he is at, but he is very much handicapped and im unsure if Ed can find any improvment that Luca couldnt.




13 - Deauvile Flyer - 9st - Won last time out ovr a trip I would have thought was short of his best given that hisform seems to be best over 14Fto 16F and I still think this 12F is still too short for him based on last years running. Tim Easterby other runner would be the pick of the pair in my view and I am prepared topass him over.




14 - Bridle Belle- 8st 12lbs - She maybe was a little unfortuante to find trouble in runnin at HQ last time but she wasnt ever looking like she was going to win the race so maybe she can be judged a little bit better then the basic look on the form, she performed well ay ascot behin Spifer but she is more exposed and whilst she has conditions to suit and is from a strong yard maybe she will struggle to reverse that form despite the weight gan for her, she makes the shortlist (9lbs well in)




15 - Itaaq - 8st 11lbs - Best when turned out quickly he is making his reapperance for Mick Easterby today and is the choice of the yards regular jockey so that could well be a positive to note. Another whose best form in recent times here has been over 2 Miles he is very much a horse who likes it here, but I do feel he will improve for the run and isnt as well handicapped as others.




16 - Very Good Day - 7st 12lbs - Showed some form last time and may well reproduce some form with stronger pace, but he looked like he was going to run a big race a Goodwood which suits him and then floundered in the soft condiitons. Return to better ground is sure to suit but he needs to prove more in handicaps before I can back him and this looks more competitve and he is still wrong at the weights in my view despite the low weight




Verdict - five make the shortlist in which High Office is the best in at the weights in my view from Crackentop and Bride belle and all of these 3 are exposed runners. The biggest concern for Crackentop I have is that he is now 7yo while the Fahey pair are younger with less miles on the clock to suggest that they could return to form. Splifer & War Poet are the best of the unexposed bunch at the weights  and the former of those two would be the more likely to improve. 25-1 on high office looks plenty high enough even though you have to take it ontrust that the hurdling campagined hasnt ruined him.




Selection - High Office 1pt win @ 25-1 (General)

Crossbar rattling again WC... excellent effort sir.

Unlucky Well Chief, good selection.

Didn't watch the race as I have been in meetings all day but saw the distance he got beat by - what a sickner backed him at 42's on here. Had it for a place which soften's the blow. Great selection!

Well done WC, so close to being brilliant!

keep plugging away - your reading it right - winners are immenient imo,i know you just do win mainly ,but some great picks with logical study,

you should trade them or put a cover bet on the place to at least get your stake back - but i agree win singles pays best if you have a good enough strike rate - and you usually do.

3:00 | 2 Fury (R L Moore, 3-1 2nd-fav); 10 Prince Of Johanne (R Winston, 20-1 ); 3 Mijhaar (N Callan, 2-1 fav); 11 ran.

Non-runners: Invisible Man; Sos Brillante; Stevie Thunder;
Distances: Nose; 2½ lengths; Head;
Winning trainer: W J Haggas.
Tote: £4.50; £1.90; £4.90; £1.30; Exacta: £70.40; Trifecta: £175.70; Swinger: £16.50; Swinger: £14.30; Swinger: £1.70; CSF: £66.82; Tricast: £150.60;

Navajo chief I think was 6th

2:00 | 8 Easy Terms (James P Sullivan, 14-1 ); 12 High Office (B McHugh, 33-1 ); 11 Crackentorp (D Allan, 16-1 ); 15 ran. 2 Caucus (William Buick, 9-2 fav); 10 Spifer (R Winston, 6-1 joint-2nd-fav); 6 Tepmokea (Jim Crowley, 6-1 joint-2nd-fav);

Distances: Short Head; Neck; Head;
Winning trainer: E W Tuer.
Tote: £13.90; £3.00; £12.40; £3.50; Exacta: £666.30; Trifecta: £1,562.30; Swinger: £70.40; Swinger: £105.20; Swinger: £43.30; CSF: £428.88; Tricast: £7,263.45;


3 crossbars and one unplaced

P/L -4pts


Next previews - 2.30 Newbury Blue square class 2 Handicap + 2.45 Newmarket Woral sprint trophy class 2 handicap

Unlucky Well Chief.

The well deserved winners are just around the corner imo.

A great thread by the way.

2.30 Newbury Blue Square Handicap Class 2

1 - Bay Knight - Just gets into this handicap sprint after a poor winter in Dubai and in the main his recent form has been well below his best and needs to rediscover his form here today with his best run in the last six when he attempted to make all at the curragh over seven furlongs that day in the mud and this race is a far cry from those conditions he contested that day and looking at how well weighted others are he is bes passed over with the last run at Meydan most probably the most like today of his last six runs and he was bitterly dissapointing.


2 - Palace Moon - In contrast Palace Moon has had a productive winter on the polly track in this country and the runs over seven furlong at Kempton and six furlong at lingfield stand out of his recent runs and the Lingfield run over six furlongs is most probably the best to judge him on for today's race as it was over this trip, but that effort was under sharper circumstances and his stamina needs to be drawn upon to be involved today and despite the seven furlong performance on Kempton being just as good I think he is best passed over for this with others better handicapped on turf.

3 - Pabusar - is only 4yo so there could be more to come from this sprinter whose form in the book kind of has tailed off due to the higher mark and drops back down to a mark around the last time he showed any form when running well on the July Course. Jim Crowley hasnt been able to get a tune out of him recently and the run at Ascot since the Newmarket run which wouldnt be to dislimer to today's race was a very poor efforts so he does need to refind his form and may just find a couple better handicapped in this today, The mini break may just help as he often needs his first run of the season and could bounce back to form.


4 - Mac's Power - Has been given no chances by the handicapper as he is only dropped 1lbs after continually running off a mark of 100 which is a testment to how consistent he is or how well placed he is by his trainer in terms of running in races that suit and he is likely to have come on for the run latest. He has much in favor today and Fallon continues to ride him, he should once again be on the premises for this and could pick up place money.


5 - Whailleyy - isnt overally raced and in my view there could well be more to come with the progression he showed on the all weather and he looks well handicapped for this despite the rise in the weights and if he can transfer that form to th turf then he has a live chance and the jockey booking suggest that a big run could be on the cards for this gelded son of Holly Roman Emperor who is a sire making his nam and has plenty of pace in his offsprings and the Goodwood run suggests to me that this more galloping track may well help him to win. Shortlisted

6 - Swiss Cross - Looks like he could be winning soon at the weights even though a couple of others in this handicap look better off at the weights and he looks to be a type that likes a sharp quirky track that brings out the best in him and maybe this 6 Furlongs on good racing ground with some juice still in it will stretch his stamina and he is best passed over for this in my view.

7 - Lutine Bell - The booking of Richard Hughes is eye catching for Mike Murphy while this horse has conditions to suit today with the pick of his recent form at Doncaster and Ascot last season (one under today's pilot) should see him thereabouts and when the ground dries out on to the fast side he will have one of these handicaps in him this season and I feel he will come on for the outing.

8 - Bertiewhittle - Most probably looking the best handicapped horse in the race with so much top handicapping form over sprints in the book at ayr, Newmarket, Goodwood and Ayr all playing homage to some of his best recent efforts and maybe the Newmarket form is the best to judge him on for this and the stiff finish helped him that day to win off 84 and with the soft ground and massive field at ayr helping his on a flatter track maybe this galloping track on good ground will see him more one paced in the finish and Im going to pass him over.

9 - Esprit De Midas - Another that looks handicapped to go well and comes into this handicap in good form having won at the end of april on the all weather over seven furlongs and taking him on his Ayr run in which he stayed on challange the winner and finished 2nd in his group of 11 showing that these big field straight handicaps are for him and he looks handicapped to go well today and makes the shortlist. Wouldnt want it to dry out to go quick underfoot.


10 -  Sohraab - Not badly handicappe if he can find his best form but has often been better over five furlongs on these types of tracks and isnt handicapped well enough in my view to actually beat those that are stronger over the six on a track like this, there will be chances for him at some point in the season. Does go well fresh.


11 - The Confessor - Often popular for these tyes of races and didnt run to badly in defeat last time out at Newmarket over a stiff six furlongs and he is handicapped to be winning sometime soon, however he needs a stiffer test of stamina with his best recent form being more over seven furlongs then six furlongs and at a track not to dislimiar to a track like this, he will go well again but would imagine that he will find one too good in my view.

12 - Edge Closer - Now in the twilight years of his career as a sprinter and this former Richard Hannon Trained son of Bold Edge would be deemed very well handicapped if he could turn the clock back a few years. His recent run didnt suggest that he had anychance of refidning that form but he has been given time of the track and has a good record fresh so could well show more today but you really have to put a lot of faith into that happening even though Pat Dobbs booking (knows him well) is a eye catching booking for the yard.


13 - Naabegha - 5yo and looks well handicapped on his 2nd at Chester to Greensward in a class 3 handicap, but that would be deemed at a total different race to what he contests today and even though it was over seven furlongs on a turning track he is most probably much better on a sharp type track then a out and out galloping striaght six furlongs like Newbury. However he didnt run to badly at Ascot which is sandwhiched by his two best effort and the handicap run at Haydock was a very poor effort as well so maybe this isnt the most ideal and even though he is well handicapped he isnt for me in this.


14 - Kunayno - Has won well fresh before with a cheeky win and went on to win several more races when running up a sequence and has since fallen down to a attractive mark and he is dangerously handicapped on the last of his wins when winning over six furlongs at Newmarket in which he had swiss cross beaten in 2nd who he meets on much better terms and that could be significant for him as he does handle a straight track and hris Catlin booking is eye catching for this yard. Drying ground will help his chances but I do feel a stiffer track does suit him over six furlongs and that has been proven with wins at Newmarket & sailsbury over this trip and more 7F on the flatter galloping track such as Yarmouth. He is dangerously handicapped and showed some signs of form at this track since his winning sequence but he finished the season in poor form and needs to bounce back so you would want a price about him, he makes the shortlist based on how well handicapped he is.


15 - Mac Gille Eoin - Is very well handicapped and likely to win a race as a 8yo sometime soon, however today isnt his ideal preference in getting his head in front and could well win on the all weather as well as at Goodwood in the coming months or more importantly the Derby meeting and the six furlong handicap there even though it is likely to be very competitive but he is weighted to win, This looks a prep as he is often brought on for a run in two weeks and the Derby meeting comes within that time scale. keeping my powder dry on this one for the time being and will be hoping that he shows some form today to consider him next time out. 1st run at Newbury in 64 career runs adds weight to his lay out for this.


verdict - Three makes the shortlist Whaileyy (6/1), Espit De Midas (10/1) & Kuanyo (25/1) and looking at them Esprit De Midas looks the one most bullet proof in terms of things to prove even though Kuanyo is potentially the best horse at the weights today he needs to prove he still retains that ability and is as effective over a gelloping 6 as a stiff 6 furlongs, Whaileyy is the unexposed fly in the otiment who could have more to come and could well go off favourite for this, however 6-1 looks only a fair price when I summorize his chances with this being much different to what he has excelled on so far.


Selection - Esprit De Midas 1pt win @ 10-1(VC)

Thanks for the comments, may lady luck be with me on the 19th

cmon CHIEF...need the 2.45.

The owner of Kuanyo loves a punt, i will know by midday if its trying or not. I will post here at approx 12ish

cheers RozelKid

rozel - they are all trying every race.

Esprit De Midas drifting like a barge! Any one know what's up?

kuanyao has no chance, badly needs the run, and it needs soft ground....thats what ive been told. They said it was going to go off in front...if that makes any sense???

One for the notebook.... Callan stop riding when he didn't get the gap he wanted imho.

4.20 IBA Handicap Class 2


1 - Triple Aspect (109) - Has a stiff task having to conceed weight alround in this handicap today as he doesnt have the ideal conditions to run off today aking into consideration his four best efforts in the last dozen of runs and his form doenst look as strong as others better weighted then him today and his best effort was over the stiff 5F of Sandown back in 2010 and on the basis of his form he is just as effective over a easy six furlong even though his best form has come on more convential tracks.


2 - Ahtoug (106) - One of the more less exposed runners in the handicap is this Godolphin colt by Byron and there could be more to come from him. Some of his form is o high quaility and he is interesting when retried on the all weather given how impressive he was when bolting up at Wolverhampton over five furlongs and even though that effort was a far cry from today's race he showed then that he was a horse of some potential. The other performance that really sticks out is the chester win back in may last year and that really suggested that a sharp five furlong is ideal for him and even though that performance was more in compariiosn to today's race he has much to prove today and with the year absence it may well be best to leave him alone even though he clearly has ability.


3 - Piazza San Pietro (113) - At 6yo he should really retain his ability of old and the booking of Ryan Moore is eye catching for such a small yard and he really has much in favor today with his performance at Brighton this time last year having him very much involved at the weights today and with the conditions and trackvery much likely to be in his favor.The biggest concern is that all his career wins have come within a month of his last run and the seasonal debut is a little concerning, but he is well handicapped and Ryan Moorebooking for a horse that has placed fresh before iseye catching.

4 - Parisian Pyramid (111) - Ran well atNewmarket last time under soft conditons and is fully exposed as a handicapper of 6yo and 44 runs ad comes here off a winning mark in what would look like a lesser race he contested last time out. He should be very much at full fittnes given how his profile looks and ready to do himself justice today, he does excel on a flat gallopin track but also has decent enough form on these type of booking of Jimmy Fortune is a postive given how he is riding at present and the Kevin Ryan runner should make the frame today.


5 - Noble Citzen (114)ranYesterday and was placed and could well be turned out quickly today at the same venue, eeev though he is best when given a bit longer in between his races so the likely hood is that he will be a non runner today. Very well handicapped and despite the fact he is now 7yo he seems to be retainnning his ability and Hayley Turner is a positive booking for the horse. The runs at Ascot in his formgest that he is one to keep in mind for next month if a non runner.


6 - Fathsta   (105)The second of the simcock runners and one that looks t have lost his  given how poor his run in the Victoria Cup when he had more in favor then his finishing position suggested. The six runs at this track have given very much amix profile and he was slighly unlucky in this last season in which he then went on to run well at Royal Ascot at track that seems to bring betterform out of him. At the age of 7yo he could well be on a downwards curve given his more recent fom.


7 - Chilli Green  (106)- Ran well last time out under soft conditions at Ascot over six furlongs and is a spinter coming here in form which is ideal for a sprinter. However her best recently has o reflection on today's race under the condiitons and it is to be seen if she has the quicker conditions just as welas the soft she handled well lst time out as well as the sharper trip evn though the 7F she has run well on have been sharper tracks then Goodwood so she could well have the pace here today.


8 - Oneladyowner (112)  - Not the most over raced sprinter at 4yo and has the services of William Buick for this class 2 event which is his 3rd effort in this sphere of class and he could still progress to have a say at this level and on the book the trip, ground and track should well suit him so he could well be upto winning this handicap today even though he needs to show more then at Doncaster where he was really poor for a horse that hs good record fresh, but maybe he needed last time out


9 - Fanrouge (109)The 2nd female in this sprint handicap and she has turned into a bath specialist on her form and there is most probably another handicap in her at that track given her form. The fact she is turned out quickly is eye catching given that when she has been turnedot quickly she has a 100% record and the 3yo is still likely to be improvng and ran well at Newbury last time out over six furlongs, however she is taking on exposed been there and done it sprinters and she will learn alot from the experience I feel. This easier sx furlongs then Newbury will suit

Verdict - Noble Citzen ran well yesterday and is likely to be made a non runner today even though its the same venus and Hayley Turner has ben booked for the ride and Oneladyowner, Parisian Pyramid and PIAZZA SAN PIETRO are the 3 that interest me with the last mentioned under Ryan Moore the choice at the prices imo as even though he has often come on for the run the booking on first run for a new yard is enough to risk at a double figure price.


Selection - Piazza San Pietro 1pt win @ 15-1(365)

Smashing analyses WC...your turn will come mate, with all the work you're putting in - don't get disheartened when a ballsac or two puts the booty in, as if you're not picking the actual winner, such scrotal abnormalities will see it in black & white as a big failure

I can't say I have agreed with all your musings (as I have hindsight on my side) but you haven't been a million miles away - good luck sir

Crossbar again and 1/2L away from a big priced winner, unlucky

Close again Chiefy

Getting warm WC

3.50 Kelso John Smith Handicap Chase Class 3

1 - Dream Alliance the 2009 Welsh National winner for the Philip Hobbs yard heads the weights for this handicap chase today and has lost his way since his day in the sun as to speak, Now with the Flint yard havcing had problems he showed very little last season to get carried away with in terms of a revevial at 11yo, The fact that all his best form comes under more testing conditions is a concerning given the likely going to be good jumping ground which maybe is more likely to be on the fast side then the slow slogging ground he is best on and he is readily passed over here today.

2 - Rockabilly was going well at Perth in the marathon race under soft conditions before making a mistake which put pay to his chances and he is dangerously handicapped for this event today on the best of his form. The fact there could be more progression to come from the horse is a strong suggestion to me that he will be a player in this handicap as the 3M sharp track may not be the most ideal conditions for him to run under, but he looks well handicapped and is effective over this trip albeit on stiffer types of tracks, on breeding the quicker condiitons should suit and he has already shown that the ground does suit when 3rd to decent stayer Fortfication at Exeter.

3 - Humbie a winner at this track over hurdles last time out under Timmy Murphy and is as affective over the larger obstacles as he is over hurdles and comes here very much in form under the same guidence as last time here as Timmy Is Booked again which is a massive positive for this horse. Trip and ground does suit looking at his best pieces of form even though that was on a stiffer track, but he had enough pace over hurdles to win in soft conditions over 22F so the extra yards at this track shouldnt be a problem and he should give his running today and makes the shortlist as a potential winner.

4 - Ballycoin could only muster the one pace last time out at Newcastle over today's trip and better racing conditions then many have been contesting and should have claims on that, the fear is that the 3M on a stiff track didnt look long enough for him and this sharper 25F should be a little on the fast side for him to have a say I feel, also there is a few in this race who look potentially better treated and could well come out on top and I will pass him over today.

5 - Night in Milan should be winning more handicap chases this year as he is a well treated horse in my view and ran well at this track last time out so there is reason to belive he will be good enough to run a big race in a similiar type of race, the biggest concern when looking through the best of his form is that they all say soft somewhere in the race going description and he is most probably better with give in the ground. I would need a price to take a risk on him handling the ground today before backing him, but he is nicely treated in this.

6 - More Equity has plenty in her favor today in terms of conditions for the race and the unlucky defeat at Musselbrugh last season is the closest she has come for sometime now to winning a race and the Handicapper doesn't seem to be cutting her any slack, however she could well pounce if the better handicapped horses in the race fail to perform anywhere near their best as More Equity should give her running today.

7 - Badger Foot is another that should very much give his running with everything set for a big run today under the conditions and the track has played to his best form in my opinion. Handicapped up to his best despite the drop in the weights as he looks like he has regressed since winning this 12 months ago and being handed a 9lbs penalty for that win. He defends his crown better of weighted then last years race but you need to take it on trust that he retains the form of old even though he did run well here again in defeat behind Tartan Snow so you can draw hope that he will stepback upto form.

8 - Inverlochy Lad is a hard horse to judge as he does have ability and Dennis O'Regan keeps the ride for this today and he rode him to victory two runs back so his services are greatly recived by connections. There is plenty in favor for a return to that sort of form and he is nicely handicapped in my view to give it ago at this level and im more inclinned to overlook the form of the perth race in which he failed to complete the race over 31F. he makes the shortlist for this.

9 - Overyou has continued to run well and stayed on well when beating More Equity over 23F at this track and the longer trip should well suit her more given the way she stayed on that day and looking at her form she has a consistent profile in which she has stayed this trip well before so she should be in her comfort zone in this today, she is nicely handicapped and should well confirm form with More Equity despite the terms.

10 - Or De Grugy could well bounce back to form as this place is like a second home for the horse and he is talented on his day its just about knowing when it is one of those days to side with him. The ground should be ideal and the trip is within in his staying zone so he should be thereabouts providing its a going day, the jockey booking of Lucy Alexander suggest that they arent hopeful of a turnaround in form given that she is yet to ride the horse, time will tell but his form in recent months have been average even though the 10yo showed some signs of life last time out.

11 - Royal Mackintosh completes the line up of horses that are potentially well handicapped if they can refind their form and he is potentially better on a more galloping track that allows his stamina come into play as he likes the mud as well, he could well run well given how well handicapped he is but the 11yo I feel hasnt got the ideal conditions to run under today and is passed over.

Verdict - Some old timers in this handicap could well blow it out of the water and maybe out of the 3 the most interesting one is Or de Grugy who is a regular around here and has plummeted in the weights, whether he can refind his form is to be seen and the 10-1 on offer is a little on the shortside for my liking and Rockabilly is potentially the best horse in the race on my calculations and can overcome the slight negative on track type to be involved in the finish and its no surprise for me to see that he is 4-1 for this. The mares in the race have a lot in favor and could well be involved in the finish, however they may find a couple to well handicapped for them. Humbie is a horse that can go well in this handicap with a well laid out planning of running between codes and should go well but 3-1 in my view looks a little bit on the shortside given how open it looks. Last years winner Badger foot is another who has much in favor, however I believe this will be tougher then the race last year and he will have to settle for a minor role, the one I like is INVERLOCHY LAD at 12-1 for this under Dennis O'Regan as he has a 100% record at this track, looks well handicapped and can be forgiven the Perth effort last time out, Trainer is double handed in this race with two senior jockey's booked I would say he is setting his stall out and this is the pick of the pair.

Selection - INVERLOCHY LAD 1pt win @ 12-1

7.10 Windsor Slybet Sprint handicap class 3


Top seven rated

Fair Value – 113 – at 4yo she is still open to improvement this season and could well make up into a decent sprinter for Simon Dow and she already has the best form in this handicap on my ratings to be the one to beat if she can reproduce that type of performance today. She has bags of speed given the way she made all at Folkestone over five furlongs in which she never saw another horse under Neil Callen that day on good to firm ground and she should have conditions very much in her favour today with the ground likely to be good to firm bordering on firm at Windsor tonight. The extra Furlong is a slight concern but this Windsor track doesn’t take too much getting over six furlongs and Seb Sanders has already recorded a victory on her over six furlongs, The 3 weeks since her last outing in which she finished down the field at Kempton park she could never get to the front and she may well have needed the run given her average runs fresh, she has got some stamina question marks and needs to dictate but she could well last this six furlongs under quick conditions home and she is of consideration.
Kuanyno – 111 – Showed little at Newbury last time out suggesting that he may well have needed the run over that Galloping six furlongs which would be more to his liking, however he is turned out quickly after that poor run and should show much better form this time around with a strong record when turned out quite quickly after his last run. The ground and trip should very much suit him tonight at Windsor and he could well have a say in this handicap with Tom Quelly an eye catching booking for the horse as he often gets the job done for Peter Makin when called upon. The stiffer tracks have played host to his best form with Newmarket, Sailsbury and a furlong further at Newbury really playing to his strengths, he may well have a say in this today but with the likes of Fair Value in the field he is likely to find this maybe a shade too sharp over six furlongs of Windsor as he likes to press the lead.

Elna Bright – 109 – Best form seems to come on the artificial surface and that has him well in on his turf form in comparison as this 7yo has better form on the all-weather, however he does handle the turf to decent level so can’t be totally discounted on the ground alone. This course should suit him over six furlongs and he has got decent enough form on Good to firm ground even though his rating is slightly less than the all-weather and others may well prove to be better bet on the Turf then Peter Crate gelding but he is well handicapped on the best of his all-weather form even though he is exposed as a handicapper these days. The break is a negative as he does well with racing in the past.

Quasai Congree – 109 – Showed up to be a bit of a specialist at Newmarkets July course given a look at his best form and is most probably a few lbs light of his best mark away from that venue. The ground and trip should well suit him tonight and he could well bounce back to some type of form given how poor the more recent efforts have been but he is going to be reliant on them going really hard in front and his extra stamina coming into play given how he finishes his races off on a stiff track.

Novellan Lad – 108 – Has been quite consistent in terms of sprinters as they often get a run of good from before then being well beaten and he looks primed to run a big race again given just how much he has in favour under the conditions tonight under Kieran Fallon who rode him to win at Newbury 12 months ago and again over the winter on the all-weather. He has had a bit of a break with this in mind given that this is his time of year and has a decent record fresh. The sharper six furlongs here tonight shouldn’t be too much of a problem given that he has won over the sharp six furlongs of catterick and seven furlongs of Lingfield on the all-weather. A big show is very much likely on the cards here tonight and he makes the shortlist.

Main Beach – 108 – Looks potentially well treated as well in this handicap if he can transfer the promise he has shown on the all-weather on turf as he is still lightly raced having seen the race course just ten times in his career. The trip around Windsor shouldn’t be a problem for him and Steven Donnohoe has ridden him to victory as well. The turf part is the problem having seen so little of him on turf and Starcraft  offsprings have a poor record on the good to firm ground suggesting that he may well struggle of his current handicap mark on turf for a while, despite being well treated on what he has achieved on the all-weather.
Golden Desert – 108 – Richard Hughes gets the leg up on Simon Dow runner tonight and the trainer seems to have a strong hand given how well both jockeys ride this track and it would be no surprise to see the trainer entering the winners enclosure for a rare win at this track. Golden Desert form at ascot in recent years has been very poor given that he is a course winner and he is most probably being aimed at the royal meeting next month so he could well be using this as a prep to get himself spot on as his performances fresh have been of a very poor standard. The trip is also a concern even though stablemate is likely to set very fast fractions on this track given how keen she often is, he will most probably be staying on tonight under top weight all too late in the day. Ground will suit him however and he has a consistent amount of decent form when dropping down to class 3 level.

Verdict – Trainer Simon Dow has two runners that are handicapped to win this tonight and Golden Deesert looks like he is being laid out for his target tonight while his stable mate Fair Value looks very smartly handicapped and likely to go well with bags of speed for these conditions tonight, the slight concern is her stamina but the 16-1 on offer for her looks an insult to her chances and she is likely to be thereabouts over this six furlongs under the conditions. Novellen Lad is as short as 8-1 for this and is likely to go very well, I would have him down being at the front of the market given that he has a lot in favour tonight but is obviously more exposed then some of those that currently sit amongst the favourite’s for this tonight, but at double the price I will give FAIR VALUE ago that she sees out the trip over this six furlong to a decent level as she looks very nicely handicapped on the form book.

Selection – Fair Value 1pt win @ 16-1

0/7 so far so -7pts

King of Jazz 3rd
Sirvino 3rd
Navajo Chief 6th
High Office 2nd
Esprit des Midas 10th
Piazza San Pietro 3rd
Inverlochy Lad PU

3.40 Ripon Willmott-Smith Memorial Handicap 1M GF

Rating - Dubai Dynamo 108, Emilio Largo 107, City of the kings 105, Toto Skyllychy 105, Extratersstial 105, Snow Bay 105, Just Bond 104, Merchant of Medici 103, Askaud 91

Askaud is one that can be discounnted with some confidence and there are claims for the rest, Merhcant of Medici would have stronger claims if he could bring his all weather form to the turf as he seems better on the artfical surface then the turf and maybe he can be discounnted despite being quickly turned out. Just Bond will no doubt be aimed at a Redcar race and may stay on all too late in this handicap on a track that isnt as ideal as the more galloping track of redcar and he can maybe claim a place at best. four come next on the list and all are within striking range of Dubai Dynamo who sets the standard here.

Extraterrestial would have come out on top if there was rain overnight and the going was too slow considerablly as he has a much better chance at the weights on going that doesnt have the word firm in it despite the odd decent performance on the sounder surface he is lbs better with give in the ground but due to being so well handicapped in my view he could still have some hope or a say in this handicap under a jockey he has a great record with who rides him to the majority of his best form in the book. Snow Bay if he can retain his ability of old then he would be tough to beat in this handicap with everything in favor and should run a big race if he does still retain the ability of old and 7-1 is most probably about as low as you would want to risk on finding out. Toto Skyllachy is in form and comes here after a couple of fair efforts and the better ground could offset the stiffer track of Beverley in which really suits his style of running as he handles this better ground just as well as soft going and could be hard to peg back if allowed to steal a march on his opponents.

City of the kings is ideally placed in this handicap and if it stays dry there would be no surprise to see him run a decent race as he likes it round here, there is little in terms of progressive rivals in this handicap so the 7yo could have a say having been eased in the handicap after having valid excuses last time out in soft ground, he is another that needs to refind his form and maybe this is a little sharp these days for him but at 20-1 he could well pay the faith of punters. Emillio largo is the unexposed runner in the race and maybe was slightly unlucky in the spring cup in which he was in the process of running a decent race and if you take the Sandown run from last season in the mud over seven furlongs you would imagine this sharpish mile would be more then ideal under ground that suits on his sailsbury running and he deserves to be second favourite in this handicap and could possiablly push dubai Dynamo for favouritism by the off time if you can forgive the effort last time out (unlucky in running). Dubai Dynamo won well last time and could well follow up as he seems as good as ever at 7yo and even though the conditions are totally different underfoot he is verstile, however at a price of 5-2 I see as a little short on price with so many in with a chance.

My verdict is that while he could well be not as good as old in a race full of possiabilities I do feel that Snow Bay & CITY OF THE KINGS can run big races against the market leaders even though both of them look well treated and taking into consideration the prices I feel 20-1 on offer for City of the kings is to big to pass up.

Selection - CITY OF THE KINGS 1pt win @ 20-1

Non Runner

Non Runner

That was quick

1 Brimham boy (120) - This rating was recorded on his last run at Hereford over 19F on good racing ground and swaps to a more galloping 20F event at Huntingdon on quicker ground and in terms of seeing out the trip there should be no problems for the horse. At 10yo he looks like he has reached his prime and there should more be to come from him for his pilot today who rode him in a similiar affair to last time and he comes here in form and setting the bench mark. The 11-2 on offer is a fairly decent price for his chances I feel.

2 Bay Central (117) - Handles this type of quick going well and the yard he hails from is in red hot form in the last month. However this rating was obtainned over 16 furlongs 2 runs back when he ran out a winner at Wincanton under these conditions, he finished last on his next run at Taunton of 3 but wasnt disgraced in a similiar type of race but this is much more of a stamina test and he failed when last tried over this trip so he is likely to run below what he is capable off here. The 14-1 on offer is a fair price considering he needs to prove his stamina as he has the ability.

3 O'Callaghan Sound (116) - Jonjo O'neil is a man in form and when AP McCoy is on a JP horse for the yard you can always expect it to be underbet as the bookies fear the connections ability to take them to the cleaners and O'Callaghan Sound performance rating comes from his last run when he won at Market Rasen last time out and he should once again have the conditions to suit and to run a decent race as he is a race fit contender for this today. At 6yo there could be more to come but he has a large weight to carry today for such a young chaser and the 6/4 best priced is based on connections rather then his chance.

4 Bennythejets (113) - 2nd in this last year and based on that run he obtainned a rating of 113 for this race this time around as he is 1lb lower in the handicap then he was 12 months ago. The conditions clearly suit him and he stays this trip so he is of interest today and the 10yo should give his running as he is race fit and hasnt had these conditions to run off in his five runs since this race last year so there is everychance that he could come back into form as he has showed signs of a form revival in his last two runs. 17/2 is a fair reflection on his chance I feel.

5 Sea Cadet (112) - Has ability but would most probably liked a strong test of stamina rather then this galloping 20 Furlong with his form being better over further then this trip tonight, that coupled in with the long absence from the race track from a small yard could well see him struggle tonight even though the jockey booking of Richard Johnson is encouraging. The market should tell you more what is likely to come from the horse but overal there will be other chances for this horse as he returns to the track and I wouldnt want to take anything lower then a double figure price on his chances.

6 Fidelis (112) - Been of the track since struggling over hurdles and returns with the positive booking of Daryll Jacob in the saddle, however he has a bit to find on his running prior to that in a small runner affair at Folkestone with Noel Fehilly in the saddle and even though he likes to run fresh is from a yard in form and has conditions to suit he has a bit to find on the book with others that look better handicapped the 15/2 on offer looks short of real value when Briham Boy can be obtainned at 11-2 for this and bennythejets at 17-2

7 Gee Dee Nen (112) - hasnt got the ability of old it seems and has had chances to run a big race but failed to run upto a level good enough to have a say in this handicap and even though he has form at a higher level he has tailed off and cant be invested in on old form having shown little when faced with easier tasks, the pick of his more recent form was in a dire event last time over 20F in soft conditions where he slumped too his lowest handicapping level and the time before was over 2M at Kempton which would have been plenty short enough. The 9yo hails from a decent handicapping yard and could bounce back but not sure this is his race to refind his form.

8 Yvonne Everlyn (98) - very little in the way of form for this horse over fences and returns after a long lay off after contesting a half decent looking handicap chase, however he has run well under these conditions and he hails from a top yard that could have more to come over fences but until he performs better he is best watched even though Robert Thornton is here for the ride and he is a big price in which he deserves to be given what he showed.

verdict - BRIMHAM BOY at 11-2 looks a tad too high in the market price with much in his favor and he is taken to upset the short priced favorite, Bennythjets is one for the tricast or minor place prizes in a hard 8 field.

Selection - BRIMHAM BOY 1pt win @ 11-2