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05 May 12
05:05
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03 Aug 05
The form of 3 year olds first time up in handicaps seems to be appauling! can anyone explin this?
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Sir Mark will be gutted to read this.
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dont even bother looking at the form for these runners unless you know how the trainer works,first thing to do is watch the market,compare the market moves with who trains it and make a judgement based on how you think the trainer operates.
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May be wrong but I think the OP is referring to 3yos making their handicap debut in a 3yo+ handicap race.
If that's correct then Sir Mark's recent record (4 winners from 30, 13% strike rate and a level stakes loss) has been nothing to write home about. On the other hand I can see where you may be coming from as the trainer's record with horses making their handicap debut in races confined to 3yos has yielded 40 winners from 151, 26% strike rate and a level stakes profit. None of which answers the OP's question but I would guess that some of the time the first run in a handicap is just a sighter for some connections and that a study of 2nd/3rd runs in a handicap may be more revealing. All in all a stab in the semi-twilight at the end of the day for us mere mortals trying to second guess those in the know.  |
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My take on this
1 thoses that have run well at 2yrs old get a rating that is two high 2 those that have run poor at 2yrs (on purpose )get a rating that is to low ..when they meet you know the rest |
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Geoff M...................QUALITY!
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that doesnt make much sense zipper (no reason why the handicapper should be inaccurate in assessing a whole group of horses just cos they ran well/moderately), tho i'd say it is possible that many of those that ran well at 2 are now more exposed than some that felt their way in maidens/had fewer runs.
In relation to 4yo+, i think the weight-for-age scale is less favourable for 3yos at this time of year than later in the season. |
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Duncan.. your words many of those that ran well are now more exposed ..some that felt their way in maidens
i like that gave me a laught ..tough good the H/C lark |