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A very competitive race here, but I think SPANISH WEDDING is open to a lot of improvement on his handicap debut and should really appreciate the extra yardage. He is related to a two mile winner on his dam's side, and even though his dam only won over seven furlongs, the way he has been running suggest that he will love this sharp step-up by three furlongs in trip. His sire, Hernando was a classy horse over eleven and twelve furlongs, and has stats with his offspring that are favoured to more of a stamina test. For his three year olds running above nine furlongs he has a strong record of 19%, and include a restriction to just include geldings and the strike rate increases to 10-39 (25.6%). His three year olds on the all-weather are 16-73 (21.9%) and 3-12 with geldings (SPANISH WEDDING has been gelded since his last run).
SPANISH WEDDING ran in two good maidens on the turf last year at Sandown, both of which have thrown out five different winners, and he shaped as though he would appreciate a stiffer test, not really showing any turn of foot but plodding on steadily. He then ran on the all-weather, again over too short a trip, and again showing that he wants a stiffer test. He was prominent for most of the race, and hit the front two furlongs out and stayed on steadily under a gentle ride (only hit twice, hands and heals otherwise) but was caught by what looks like potentially a smart horse in Lancaster Gate. This race has also worked out fairly well, and on the back of those runs I think that his mark of 75 seems more than fair given it is assessed on him running over an inadequate trip.
I would like to have seen Marco Botti in slightly better form given his usual strike rate, but it is not as if he is on the cold list having a winner at the weekend. With horses making their handicap debut after a break of at least 100 days he is 6-38, and in general Marco has a strong record with horses returning from at least 100 days off of 25-149 (16.78%).
I am a little bit worried about a lack of definite pace, as I would ideally like SPANISH WEDDING to be ridden how he was last time out, sat really close to the pace and to kick into the lead with a few furlongs to go and make it a test for the others to catch him. He has a good draw which will help him to get into a prominent position but I would not be adverse to him making the running if he has to to ensure he has a chance to show his hopefully strong staying characteristics.
I have Flying Trader down as a threat as well as Dartford, and Dollar Bill could well scrape into the frame at huge odds, but as should be evident now I am really keen on SPANISH WEDDING!
3.5pts win on SPANISH WEDDING at 5-1 taking BOGs.
SPANISH WEDDING ran in two good maidens on the turf last year at Sandown, both of which have thrown out five different winners, and he shaped as though he would appreciate a stiffer test, not really showing any turn of foot but plodding on steadily. He then ran on the all-weather, again over too short a trip, and again showing that he wants a stiffer test. He was prominent for most of the race, and hit the front two furlongs out and stayed on steadily under a gentle ride (only hit twice, hands and heals otherwise) but was caught by what looks like potentially a smart horse in Lancaster Gate. This race has also worked out fairly well, and on the back of those runs I think that his mark of 75 seems more than fair given it is assessed on him running over an inadequate trip.
I would like to have seen Marco Botti in slightly better form given his usual strike rate, but it is not as if he is on the cold list having a winner at the weekend. With horses making their handicap debut after a break of at least 100 days he is 6-38, and in general Marco has a strong record with horses returning from at least 100 days off of 25-149 (16.78%).
I am a little bit worried about a lack of definite pace, as I would ideally like SPANISH WEDDING to be ridden how he was last time out, sat really close to the pace and to kick into the lead with a few furlongs to go and make it a test for the others to catch him. He has a good draw which will help him to get into a prominent position but I would not be adverse to him making the running if he has to to ensure he has a chance to show his hopefully strong staying characteristics.
I have Flying Trader down as a threat as well as Dartford, and Dollar Bill could well scrape into the frame at huge odds, but as should be evident now I am really keen on SPANISH WEDDING!
3.5pts win on SPANISH WEDDING at 5-1 taking BOGs.
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A lot of effort and research gone into this piece Jack, thought i'd bring it up for you to get a wider audience. Think you'd be better putting this type of analysis onto a good horse racing forum like the olbg though. Good luck 3 y o h'caps not my thing at this time of year so can't really add anything constructive to it.
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Last year someone posted on here saying that they had been speaking to the owner of this horse before it ran it's first race, the owner was confident this horse would become a decent racehorse. Looking at it's three runs so far the step up in distance should suit. I will be a backer, currently 6.2 on here. Good luck.
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I was going to stick wth DARTFORD here.....has only disappointed me however so far
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good post jack,i fancy this a bit myself.
be disapointed if its out of the frame,third in the kempton race as won since. |
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will be a lot better than 75, if it's fit it should win.
done it with his other runner tonight bartolomeu. 2 singles and an e/w double. |
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5's all gone with the books now.mostly around a 7-2 shot.
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usually 2-3 hundred could move it on here but there has been some real money so here's hoping.
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"Nicewise" is the title of Jacks daily blog if any one is interested,always a good and informative read. The bloke knows his stuff and has a few good contacts in the training world. I would recomend a look.
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cross bar,still a good pick by the op.
no damage done if you had the 5's each-way. |
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ran its race and was there to win...looks in need of further
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trifecta £329.90
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