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TheJudge
05 Apr 12 09:43
Joined:
Date Joined: 04 Jul 07
| Topic/replies: 3,457 | Blogger: TheJudge's blog
I dont like Antepost punting but I cant get away from the chances of Parish Hall, won a decent renewal of the Dewhurst and is trading at 20's on here seems big, anyone got any fancies???
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Report Nightfly April 5, 2012 9:54 AM BST
Top Offer is the one.

won in scintillating fashion, coming from the right connections

I know style and hype always get attacked and some of the time it is justified, however sometimes you are so taken with
a performance that you hav to take notice.. Not since Bosra Sham won her maiden at Newbury in 1995 have i had that gut
instinct.. I have got stuck in at 20/1 post that race and have my fingers crosed all goes well until the Guineas.

It was also intersting to note the money recently for it, a little unusual for the Charlton yard..With a dodgy looking favourite over
a mile and uncertainty about its participation ..Top Offer is clearly the bet..will alo be topping up when we are NRNB.
Report pauli April 5, 2012 9:58 AM BST
I was very impressed with Roger Charlton's colt Top Offer when he won a 7f maiden at Newbury in August on his only start last year.  He started slowly that day and ran green but still won impressively.
Report GEORGE.B April 5, 2012 10:14 AM BST
1 pt EW Akeed Mofeed @ 20-1

Cheers
Report TheJudge April 5, 2012 11:10 AM BST
I know he's the buzz horse but I thought visually Camelot was more impressive than Top Offer the way JOB waited and picked them up in the RP trophy was done in the manner of a really smart colt, 5/2 makes no appeal though, its always a guessing game the Guineas but if Abtaal the french colt comes over he would be of intrest as well
Report Nightfly April 5, 2012 11:48 AM BST
fair comments Judge.

but also wary that Ladbrokes, who have the inside track at Ballydoyle bigtime, have been falling over themselves
to lay Camelot all winter.. and they are still joint biggest.

whilst plans change, i think the St Nicholas abbey business is still fresh in there minds and for all the world
Camelot looks a Deby Horse.. If however the next few weeks bring stunning gallops and a fully prepared Camelot.
Then we are in a different ball game, by then he'll be 11/8.

Still Top Offer for me.
Report TheJudge April 5, 2012 12:20 PM BST
yeah agree with you mate Top Offer a fair price, Camelot might be a good horse but with like you say doubts over this being a target plus the price I couldnt have him on my mind but he is taking a chunk of the market so there is a bit of value elsewhere IMO just gotta be found
Report GEORGE.B April 5, 2012 3:53 PM BST
I'm encouraged John Oxx's comments....

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/epsom-epsom-derby-akeed-mofeed-one-of-five-added-to-the-derby/1010852/top/
Report FELTFAIR April 5, 2012 8:39 PM BST
If you`re looking for a big priced chance before Camelot is withdrawn have a look at Coupe De Ville. Trained by Richard Hannon likes Newmarket and will handle the ground whatever it is. Best priced 50/1 with the firms but there is little 100/1 on Betfair. If it gets to Newmarket it will be nothing like the current price on offer.
Report GEORGE.B April 5, 2012 8:45 PM BST
Just seen the advert, Tom Segal giving his Guineas ante post picks in tomorrow's paper.

Anyone know (or wanna guess) what he's gone for?
Report thesecret April 5, 2012 9:32 PM BST
Akeed Moffeed, whithout a shadow....
Report mac99 April 5, 2012 9:55 PM BST
I think I read somewhere that  R,Charlton said  Top offer was a bit special?  , he certainly looks the part
Report warhan April 5, 2012 11:53 PM BST
Thought POWER was the best 2yo colt i saw last year,narrowly beaten at the curragh by a filly who ran MAYBE to a neck at leopardstown and should really have won the dewhurst if ryan had got him out sooner.Looks to be crying out for strongly run mile given his performances over shorter
Report inm2020 April 6, 2012 6:44 AM BST
for me it is Born to sea dam already has produced classic winners and is by invincible spirit who had some pace. With John Oxx who didn't give this colt a hard 2 year old season with it winning a listed race first time then coming 2nd in a group 3 after it had pulled something leaving the stalls. The favourate camalot will not be going for this as ladbrokes are top price and it is also entered in the dante which will proberbly the prefered route to the derby through the best derby trial.
Report TheJudge April 6, 2012 11:32 AM BST
Just seen the advert, Tom Segal giving his Guineas ante post picks in tomorrow's paper.

Anyone know (or wanna guess) what he's gone for?


Wink
Report Early Morning Riser April 6, 2012 3:22 PM BST
M Bell is quite bullish about his runner BORN TO SURPRISE in the gns.
Report Fearless Willie April 6, 2012 3:45 PM BST
Cant understand the drift on Camelot, I know a few guys who would def know whats going on in there and they have punted him for the guineas, and strong too. Time will tell I suppose
Report pllecornu1982 April 6, 2012 5:24 PM BST
As we're talking a lot about Camelot on this thread does anyone think he can be beaten in the Derby. I've backed Parish Hall cause of the comments from Jim Bolger over and over that he'll want 1m4f and he's a derby horse etc.

I know one thing, if it's a choice between Joseph O'Brien and Kevin Manning around Epsom, I'll take Kevin Manning.
Report pllecornu1982 April 6, 2012 5:24 PM BST
As we're talking a lot about Camelot on this thread does anyone think he can be beaten in the Derby. I've backed Parish Hall cause of the comments from Jim Bolger over and over that he'll want 1m4f and he's a derby horse etc.

I know one thing, if it's a choice between Joseph O'Brien and Kevin Manning around Epsom, I'll take Kevin Manning.
Report thesecret April 7, 2012 12:29 AM BST
what did he put up then ?  I don't buy the RP
Report TheJudge April 9, 2012 10:21 AM BST
I totally forgot Forgotten Hero, trainer says he goes for the Craven and he is only entered in the Dante/Derby at the moment looks like a miler with a big big engine to me, strongly run Guineas would suit better, this is a really smart colt though IMO and if he gets supplemented that would be my bet

As we're talking a lot about Camelot on this thread does anyone think he can be beaten in the Derby. I've backed Parish Hall cause of the comments from Jim Bolger over and over that he'll want 1m4f and he's a derby horse etc.

I know one thing, if it's a choice between Joseph O'Brien and Kevin Manning around Epsom, I'll take Kevin Manning.


There's a lot of water to pass under the bridge between now and Epsom seen bigger reputations sunk than his
Report FELTFAIR April 28, 2012 10:40 PM BST
Only 26 left I think. Confirmation stage early next week and any supplements.If Camelot runs I hope he wins or is an eyecatching closer so I can trade my Derby bet. I also want Coupe De Ville to stand his ground. I had 240/1 a few weeks ago and hoping to trade out at 100/1 or better and get some of my Most Improved money back.
Report Ramjam_Cheese April 28, 2012 10:42 PM BST
Wizard will probably win under jockey Bill Clift - is that early enough for you?
Report FELTFAIR April 28, 2012 10:50 PM BST
Sorry Ramjam you`ve completely lost me.
Report Ramjam_Cheese April 28, 2012 10:57 PM BST
Google it fish finger face...
Report metro john April 29, 2012 6:17 AM BST
Betting anti post will get you skint.
Report THIS-IS-GETTING-REDICKULASS April 29, 2012 6:27 AM BST
No it wont just be carefull.

Morning johnCool
Report robbo69 April 29, 2012 7:08 AM BST
I am a big fan of anti post betting (normally) but not early season flat races, this seasons 2000G is an example of everything that can go wrong!!!

A huge hype horse already not running (Brian Meehan's cant remember its name) and what could be called mixed messages on the fav.

Then the news all farmers wanted non stop rain... The ground will be the worse seen for a May claasic in living memory, It has to be a no bet race.....
Report FELTFAIR April 30, 2012 4:32 PM BST
22 left in at today`s confirmation of entry stage and no supplements to my knowledge.
Report BRIAN BORU April 30, 2012 7:16 PM BST
Dont forget the French--- Timeform advising Hermival--- same route and trainer as Makfi.
Good to Soft will suit Camelot but how many Racing Post winners have won the Guineas??
Report sooty1 April 30, 2012 8:05 PM BST
Parish Hall, Power, Hermival, cant have Camelot. Maybe,1G, and Dunandin, The Jockey Club.
Report sooty1 April 30, 2012 8:05 PM BST
so good i put it in twice.
Report FELTFAIR May 1, 2012 8:32 PM BST
According to Analogs post Richard Hughes will ride Trumpet Major who he says will not want it too soft. Presumably Ryan Moore, who rode TM in the Craven will ride for Ballydoyle.
Report BRIAN BORU May 1, 2012 8:36 PM BST
Moore will probably be on POWER on whom he should have won the Dewhurst.
Report stratfordman May 1, 2012 8:40 PM BST
Parish Hall I feel is a value bet.
Report sj May 1, 2012 8:41 PM BST
French Fifteen e/w for me,we know he stays and anymore rain will be a plus
Report eyeamgr8 May 1, 2012 8:43 PM BST
had french fifteen, for a few months now, 33/1 is the biggest, 16/1 the shortest, could be a big day for me,

Its not rocket science if the rain, comes down as predicted, rain dance from me.
Report FELTFAIR May 1, 2012 8:45 PM BST
BB you`re almost certainly correct, but being out of Oasis Dream and possible soft ground do you think he`ll get home?
Report BRIAN BORU May 1, 2012 9:01 PM BST
F--- I DID NOT SAY HE WOULD WIN THIS WEEKEND--- I agree he will struggle to get home-- would not be surprised if they kept him at home.
Report sooty1 May 1, 2012 11:36 PM BST
sj, if you like french fifteen, one of my fancies has got to be on your short list, just finshed behind FF, and was only having his 2nd race and ran green before finshing right up the a ss of FF, i had a 33/1 win and 11/2 a place.
Report stevo1 May 1, 2012 11:54 PM BST
Godolphin horse if shows will stay and ground hugely in its favour, just whether 100% or waits for Dante, anyway on at 110s for few quid fwiw. Main fancy is French Fifteen will love ground and will go close.
Report sooty1 May 2, 2012 12:02 AM BST
Godolphin horse, will probably end up in the St Ledger.
Report FELTFAIR May 2, 2012 9:53 AM BST
Parish Hall will not run says Bolger if soft ground. Do we believe this man?
Report stevo1 May 2, 2012 11:21 AM BST
As much as i believe in Father Xmas
Report johnslad May 2, 2012 11:26 AM BST
I BELIEVEGrin
Report sooty1 May 2, 2012 1:51 PM BST
its alright to tell a few porkies, as long as he go's to CONfessions.
Report FELTFAIR May 2, 2012 2:10 PM BST
Perhaps Bolger has adopted a new approach.
Report sooty1 May 2, 2012 2:14 PM BST
FELTER. poss ?????, but highly unlikely.Grin
Report FELTFAIR May 3, 2012 7:29 AM BST
Declarations today midday. Nearly there.
Report mac99 May 3, 2012 4:26 PM BST
Saint-cloud (FR) Result
06 Oct 2011
« 2:55 » PRIX THOMAS BRYON (GROUP 3) (2YO) (TURF)
(2yo) 1m Good To Soft
£34,482.76, £13,793.10, £10,344.83, £6,896.55, £3,448.28
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
              HORSE/SP    AGE    WGT    TRAINER/JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR    

«    1 5          Abtaal (USA) 8/5F    2    8-11     J-C Rouget    —    *    *    »
Maxime Guyon
        

«    2 2    3      French Fifteen (FR) 3/1    2    8-11     N Clement    —    *    *    »
Thierry Thulliez
        

«    3 3    snk      Ice Cool (FR) 12/1    2    8-11     W Hefter    —    *    *    »
Mickael Barzalona
        

«    4 1    ½      Maradini (FR) 3/1    2    8-11     A De Royer-Dupre    —    *    *   
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire
        

«    5 7    shd      Tifongo (FR) 25/1    2    8-11     H-A Pantall    —    *    *    »
Fabrice Veron
        

«    6 4    hd      Regina Ejina (FR) 11/1    2    8-8     M Delzangles    —    *    *    »
Gregory Benoist
        

«    7 6    1¾      Kadyny 44/5    2    8-11     T Lemer    —    *    *    »
Olivier Peslier


In this group 3 race  Abtaal    beat  french  fifteen   by 3 lengths  ,but note the finishing position of ice cool  who finished upsides  French fifteen






30 Oct 2011
« 1:30 » CRITERIUM INTERNATIONAL (GROUP 1) (2YO COLTS & FILLIES) (TURF)
(2yo) 1m Very Soft
£123,146.55, £49,267.24, £24,633.62, £12,306.03, £6,163.79
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
              HORSE/SP    AGE    WGT    TRAINER/JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR    

«    1 9          French Fifteen (FR) 7/1    2    9-0     N Clement    —    *    *    »
Thierry Thulliez
        

«    2 7    1¼      Pakal (GER) 14/1    2    9-0     Mario Hofer    —    *    *    »
Olivier Peslier
        

«    3 1    ½      Bonfire 13/2    2    9-0     Andrew Balding    —    *    *   
Jimmy Fortune
        

«    4 10    shd      Learn (IRE) 4/1J    2    9-0     A P O'Brien    —    *    *   
C O'Donoghue
        

«    5 2    ¾      Kendam (FR) 8/1    2    8-10     H-A Pantall    —    *    *    »
Maxime Guyon
        

«    6 8    2½      Veneto (FR) 12/1    2    9-0     B De Montzey    —    *    *    »
Stephane Pasquier
        

«    7 4    snk      Saint Pellerin (GER) 4/1J    2    9-0     J-C Rouget    —    *    *   
Gregory Benoist
        

«    8 11    nk      Vasco Bere (FR) 20/1    2    9-0     F Head    —    *    *    »
Thierry Jarnet
        

«    9 5    snk      Ice Cool (FR) 14/1    2    9-0     W Hefter    —    *    *    »
Mickael Barzalona
        

«    10 6    2      Swing Alone (IRE) 50/1    2    9-0     Gay Kelleway    —    *    *    »
Robert Winston
        

«    11 3    1½      Salair Haut (IRE) 6/1    2    9-0     M Delzangles    —    *    *   


In this group 1 on very soft going   Ice cool  is easily beaten by   french fifteen  , the O’Brien Horse ‘learn’ was  beaten  just  length and a quarter  third .  ‘Learn was beaten  five lengths  by Camelot at
Donacater …. But  who beat  ‘Learn ‘ the  more easily  of the pair  ? probably Camelot,   but  who can be certain .The very soft ground clearly plays to  French fifteens strengths , he simply hacks on it


May here have tipped him to win  ,add me to the list
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soWoLadk5Bs
Report FELTFAIR May 3, 2012 5:53 PM BST
Parish Hall out so Mr Bolger presumably thinks it is too soft. Looks like the French will play a big hand, want Camelot to win but can`t back him at the price.
Report TheJudge May 3, 2012 5:57 PM BST
that's why I dont like betting A/P CryCry
Report TheJudge May 3, 2012 6:08 PM BST
Casper Netscher a multiple Grp winner trading at 4 times the price of Born to Sea

just dont seem right to me
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