Thoughts on MIDNIGHT CHASE????

Not again,i said last year he would be beaten out of sight............Nufinks changed ffs.

what has happened to make you think it can turn around the hammering it got last year?

Not up to this level imo.  Would need a few horses to have very bad days

Did me a favour in the Argento and I would assume he`ll adopt the same tactics in the Gold Cup but I`m afraid he`ll set it up for Long Run. There`s no Denman this year but I would think connections would be over the moon if he made the first four.

Was not ridden by his usual jockey last year,has just put up his best performance, no Denman,Kauto under a cloud. For me he and Weird Al are the 2 to beat. I have been against Long Run all season.

He completely destroyed his rivals in the Argento at Cheltenham at the end of January, blowing the field away from the front and leading from the start.

Took the piss out of Tidal Bay, Knockara Beau, Captain Chris and Time for Rupert.

He's a course specialist, and will come on for the experience of last years Gold Cup run.

Plus no Denman, question marks over Kauto and I think Long Run is a flash in the pan.

Just my opinion

Dont think that hes good enough.............might PL........G.L.

Love the horse, he loves Chelt but win a Gold Cup? Give it a rest.

Should be more like 33/1, his course record is pushing the price down.

Agent R I will take 33s any day. Apart from the 2 at the front of the betting why shoukld any others be shorter?

DL1919

I agree

RESPECTABLE? HE WAS BEATEN OUT OF SIGHT AND NOTHING WILL CHANGE THIS YEAR. IF HE WAS GETTING 2 STONE THEN MAYBE BUT NO CHANCE IN MY HUMBLE OPINION. LAY IT BACK MATE.

i really like this horse and think he was far from disgraced last year imo after a much harder season than he has had this term. Every chance he was just over the top.

having said that i doubt he is quite up to winning a gold cup although if Kauto does not turn up 100% & Long Run puts in a poor round of jumping you never know.
i would still be wanting 33/1 though.

I backed him in last years gold cup. He ran so poorly. I think it was the pace of the race. Maybe class. His recent Cheltenham win is nearer to the festival. In 2011, he won at Cheltenham just before Christmas, maybe they just got his preperation wrong. I'd love to see this horse win and I will be backing him again but I think Long Run will need to have a bad day at the office.

there's decent prize money down to 6th place which is useful for horses like this, too high to win handicaps and not good enough to win grade 1 races although this one will be fcked if he gets taken on for the lead

i don't agree he ran poorly lasat year Bonza. He didn't run all that well but stayed on quite impressively in the final stages when plenty others had cried enough.
it was just when the top guns upped the tempo he struggled to live with them though.
he really needs to grind it out from the front which is not easy against the really classy ones. his preperation has been all about this race this season though so may do a bit better and who knows should the favoured ones have an off day.

hes a very good horse that doesnt have the extra class or gear to ever win a gold cup.the same thing as last year will happen again were he wont be allowed to dominate the race rom the off.will probably finish a respectable 5th or 6th if he does complete which isnt isnt certain.

Surely got to be placed..

your having a laugh arent ya

better chance this year, than last imo.

Two factors justifying the view that he might run better this year....

1. norm jockey this time - Scu did nowt wrong but sense that he might just need some knowing
2. lost a shoe last year

Big price to me (but not if Grands Cru runs)

same as last year i think facts,just a very good handicapper,you know that though fella

rawrcs - like What a myth and the thinker  y7ou mean?

it is a year for a surprise IMO. Questions over favoutites.

ok i think the same as everyone about midnight chase  , a real good handicapper who looked  short of top class in the big race last yeaer BUT if kauto doesnt go, long run  may jump like a four poster bed(has done before)then indeed midnight looks no worse a call than any other of the rest.

Surely What A Friend is the one for the e/w punt?

Had a decent prep after a lay off at Newbury and I can't have anything mentioned above as a strong enough reason to believe that Midnight can overturn the 8 length gap from last years GC personally.

When you factor in their respective odds it's a no brainer for me.

midnight chase jumps well likes the track an could go well i take the point raised about it been not quite up to winning a grade 1 an just a top handicapper the price isnt great but if you take out the front 2 LR and KS  the race hasnt got much strength in depth there isnt much to pick from an could see the horse running  into a place

if the top four get injured between now and the race then it could sneak a place!!!

come on guys smell the coffee!  same as last year for midnight chase.

do you think WAF will relish a battle up the final hill? or do you see it winning on the bridle?
what was the big grey that used to chuck it when he saw the hill the second time? then won 2m champ - what a friend same type but half as good.
of course a long hol and special treatment - ?????????????

Watch last years GC again and tell me WAF wasn't staying on well. All im saying is that last year it was 8 lengths better than Midnight and stayed on positively very nearly nabbing third from Kauto. It has had a break and come back with a reasonable prep race where it was just over 4 lengths behind Long Run. Given the respective odds I can't see Midnight as the bet. Good luck to those that do though.

If Kauto runs then WAF will be run the right way to allow it to attain it's highest possible finishing position. That might sound stupied but Midnight Chase will be leading in a race which will be run at a much faster pace than anything else it will run in all year and in trying to win the race from the front it will probably give up it's chance of placing. That is my opinion, it's fine if yours differs. If we all thought the same there would be no ew bets would there?

yes i agree with you cruise d,it was the same on here last year with the hype about midnight chase loving cheltenham blah blah blah!    you hit the nail on the head with how this championship race is run compared to the races were he looks impressive which arent so competitive in the season.his style of running will ultimately see him blow his gasket and be a spent force 3 out.i thank you

^ I think MC will surprise you. If you've been around horses/betting as long as i have - you must know that they can make the biggest fools of us all.

i have facts

He's into 9/1 now from 16's

i think the guy whos put what a friend up as  fair e/w has put up valid reasons , u just never know it may even find a bit of courage from somewhere and win.

if the topic was `would you rather back what a friend e.w or midnight chase?` then i would say what a friend.

This thread must be kept going until all is revealed next Friday week. Lets hope there are no hard luck stories,the best horse wins and for the Midnight Chase backer he gets 6 minutes of excitement and perhaps some each way reward.

wont be in the first 3

^ I think we know your views on this by now !!

thats what the op wanted i think

not to be told the same thing by you 7 times imo

theres worse things going on in the world facts,chill out son

I see that Willoughby gave it a good mention tonight on RUK and before you say it I know Willoughby is not that into NH

to be fair to Acey Deucy he shot me down last year when I fancies this nag and for me its once bitten, twice shy. Its form at Wetherby is at best very, very average and it won a very weak grade 2 at Cheltenham when you look at what chased it home. Throw in Costello who is on a nightmare run and I think this nag is a great place lay..............

for once you spoke with a bit of common sense herblington

His last run at the Argento

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,480826_4,00.html

very impressive

wont be in the first 3 (facts)

That Argento form is not good though really. Being 9lb or so better than Tiday Bay at this stage of his career is not Gold Cup placing form IMO. It wasn't last year and Tidal certainly hasn't improved any.

Midnight Chase is a great horse and a lovely one to follow. I hope everyone gets a good run for their money but I think it's playing for 5th/6th or 7th IMO. What is different this year to last year to make it place or gain the 8 lengths it needs to catch What a friend?

to dark to risk

spot on cruise d

Confirmation of Entry stage + any supplementation midday Saturday March 10th may help to crystallise opinions. Though a few trainers will keep their options open till the last minute.

rawcs2012     08 Mar 12 11:18 
wont be in the first 3 (facts)


chill out son

rawcs has Mullholland,Costello or Midnight Chase offended you in the past? I reckon you've backed it and are thinking of going in again and want to kee

steamship,i put it up as a nap many moons ago before he was well known and he scooted in at cheltenham and ive always liked the horse.but i honestly think its gonna be exactly the same as last year for him as its the same scenario once more.

facts, chill out son

For all those saying it's gonna be the same as last year, Long Run has gotten progressively worse, massive question marks over Kauto's fitness and there's absolutely nothing to split the rest of the field.

I'm quietly confident

you wont be afterwards

Grands Crus is 13/1 on Betfair for Gold Cup compared to bookmakers general 6/1. He is 5/2 for the RSA on Betfair. This says to me that punters believe he`ll go for the latter. Can only think Pipe and connections are waiting for last minute defections from the Gold Cup.

That's very interesting indeed about Grands Crus

Wincanton gallop went well for Kauto but Nicholls is still not going to make a decision till Monday after more work.

C'MON THE CHASE!!!!!!

I can FEEL it

you will go blind

Think he's good value against the top two. Trainer states he is much better form than last year, only thing is, no 10year old has prevailed since Cool Dawn.  If he runs, Junior could be good ew value at 66/1

Agree Junior is too big

Will not run,not in the 19 acceptors.

Down to 18 runners as Medermit goes for Ryannair.

blimey guys let me ring some trainers up and get them to pull 15 horses out so that you can come on here and say "i told you he would get in the first three`  jeeez it wont be placed end of

Never thought I would see the day but me and RAWCS are in total agreement on this, Midnight Chase wont finish in the first 6 and is the best place lay of the whole festival with NO, I repeat NO risk. Trainer is very average, form of nag very very average and Costello is on an whole time low of incompetence, so my advice is load up the machine, fall asleep for 3 days and then press LAY, LAY, LAy for a place..........

Boooooooooo

Will trade bigger inrunning...guaranteed.

you have to remember this is the gold cup, huge liquidity and big money in running players. his price will not shorten in the early to middle sections of the race because the money will be there. If anything it might get bigger as people trade on other horses like Kauto and Long Run. As the enter the final circuit then this is where it will get interesting....assuming Midnight Chase is still in front his price will fluctuate wildly in a very very short frame of time....Initially the money will queue up to lay him as Kauto and Long Run apply pressure...maybe even Quel Esprit. The layers will be cutting their throats...all looking to lay the hell out him at as short a price as they can (in the hope) that as the race progresses he folds. You'll see plenty of stuff available between 15s and 20s for him before the money dries up and then you pinch a bit of 50s....even 70s in running while still be being bang there in front. Flip side to this...just as fast as the price went out...it will come back in.

I'll be looking to pinch a bit in running at the bigger prices...we all know how much heart this horse has...even when looking beaten on the front he will fight back. If you're not the greedy type and looking to add profit onto your other selections or the field then you can excel with this fella.

good luck.

Top post @ EastLower Gooner

Not sure he will want to lead with The Giant Bolster in the field. He normally goes off like a scalded cat.If Midnight has any chance at all it will be to get into a nice rhythm and then hope for the best. As previously indicated I think connections would be delighted with fourth ,anything else would be a real bonus.I feel it is impossible to see past the front two unless Grands Crus turns up and spoils the party. Overall it will all be history this time next week.

Is a decision to be made on Grands Crus entry today?

Kauto in Grands Crus out. So expect a small contraction in prices with the big firms less so with Betfair.A few more to come out I would think,Poquelin for example, around 13-14 runners I am guessing.

Kauto out?

^??

please Betfair introduce a `delete button` for topics we are bored with

and forumites ?

very true facts! 

15 declared. Out are Grands Crus, Poquelin, Medermit and Captain Chris.

http://www.neilmulhollandracing.com/blog/

Right here we go,this is the reason that Chace must be a massive runner-
1,last year he lost his normal pilot
2,tom scu had never sat on him til the wed,2 days before the race
3,the above jockey could never get him in any rhythm,he hit every other fence,losing the momentum that this horse gathers when he gets into his mojo and jumps well
4,he only got beat 19L,thought he was gonna be pulled up half way round
and finally 5, i believe long run is arguably not in the same form he was last year,kauto ob has questions to answer too, burton port may prove an interesting runner as his last run against long run ob looked like not today for him,if thrown into the last could of upset long run maybe.
So,all in all if Chase gets the run of things and able to dictate matters(not sure kauto will try leading over this trip)then knowing this horse as i do he can cause a nice little upset cos he hates being passed,always pulls out more and never knows when he is beat.

C'MON THE CHASE!

Good luck, I am going to be boring and back Long Run.

ground like today no chance

thank god the race is tomorrow so that this thread can drift off into obscurity.

wont be placed (again!)

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Good luck today DirtyLeeds.I am working today but have backed Long Run in the GC. Also backed e-w Baby Mix,Caught In Session and Rocky Creek.

Cheltenham specialist and a great jumper.  BUT sorry does not have the class to win this.  He might run a bit better this year if ridden with a little more restraint.  Let's face it Scudamore does not have his dads clock and no doubt burnt him out last year.

Scenario one - Will lead for 2m then get outpaced.  Will stay on again late.
Scenario two - They try something new and keep him in the back.  Horse won't like that and will soon be beaten.

If he jumps OK Long Run will win this in style.

Diamond Harry 33/1 is the best outsider as he has a verdict over Burton Point and maybe the breathing operation will change everything.

think the Gold Cup is very much like the National - you  either have the class / ability to win it at the first attempt or you never ever do it

Must be a long time since a Gold Cup winner has failed in the race before winning it? The Fellow or Desert Orchid maybe? See More Business may have got carried out before winning his version, but plenty have tried and very few have succeeded

I think a few subsequent National winners had tried and failed previously in the race

great place chance or maybe better today..last year he came to the Race on the back of three wins  and  may have been just over the top by the time the race came around . As with Overturn in Tuesdays   champion hurdle
he come here much fresher this time round ,hope Kauto can win  but if he can't  then  he has longrun to overcome ...no easy task

You could say only The Fellow has been good enough to win the race after being beaten in it before and that stat probably takes us back 30+ years. Yes Kauto has been beat before and See More Business who did not complete through no fault of his own. So any previous loser has a big negative stat to overcome.

"either have the class / ability to win it at the first attempt or you never ever do it" Mon Mome?

Normally I'd be looking for 7 8 year olds for a profile winner and usually previous winners fail dismally or are Best mate/Kauto Star types who retain their class for a number of seasons, Midnight Chase at 10 is just simply to old. then look at Costello and his cheltenham record, not sure he's up to this.

In many ways not a vintage renewal and I wouldn't be surprised to see KS and LR battling it out, The Current 5.8 on here has to be a back to lay, yes there is a supposed cloud over the Nichols yard, yet BB did it yesterday, especially given KS beat LR easily in the KG.  I don't see that being changed in this race, It could be a big priced winner this year.