My Racing bets

Looks like you had 3 of the winners marked out WC but left them for the "value"

Soz - Just saw the other as well - add Reblis to that

Trusty I will get there in time, I have done that race and I will be betting in it, however Pause and Clause I will wait for another day for this one I think, I reckon he could get a very nice weight for maybe Cheltenham, Aintree or Ayr in the coming months.

Madhatters its been my luck for the last week, some weeks they will all fall into place, others not, long term hopefully things will come good

3.45 Riles Handicap Chase - Class 2

The ground is likely to be very testing at Chepstow according to the early indications from the post and this handicap can see a finish like the Grand Annual of 2009 in my View. Firstly the price of Educated Evans is much to short, firstly he ran no race last time at Warwick,where as Moon Over Miami who can be hit an miss at least stuck on in what was strange race due to the loon of a winner in Marodima and secondly the win at this track the likes of Rileyev who meets that horse on much better terms today wasnt race fit as the horse often runs his best races after being kept on the go.

The two I like in this is Moon Over Miami who looks like he has one of these in him still and his conquror in the Grand Annual of 2009 OH CRICK for the Alan King yardm the latter I have a preference for and this isnt based on the weights from that day as he is wrong at the weights its the fact the horse has been given a break since really failing to go a yard at cheltenham last time behind Astracad and I think back then the yard was just of the boil, however the horse the time before really struggled in his jumping when finishing 4.5L behind Rileyev at newbury in first time cheekpieces, he did show a willingness to knuckle down that day and fight on without ever looking like winning, now he has to give weight away again but he is no stranger to having to do that and he has got soft ground form in the book such as 13L to Twist magic, he most probably is using this as a prep race to put him right for cheltenham in 20 odd days time as he is below his aintree winning mark and should just get in at the weights, however to be certain of taking his place in that race he needs to run well today and the fitting of the blinkers might just get him back in form, the fact Wayne Hutchinson takes the ride isnt a negative as the jockey rode him to victory in the grand annual in 2009 and the horse also boosts a decent effort around here back in October when just finishing behind Nomecheki & Woolcombe folly. Buffalo Bob was a fortunate winner and the drop back in trip and tougher race isnt certain to help this time around.

Oh Crick 1pt e/w @ 10-1

all the best mate and good luck, excellent thread

3.05 The Racing Plus grade 3 handicap chase

Mount Oscar ran well in defeat in a vets race last weekend and would have a good chance of landing this years renewl of this race if he was in the same vein of form as 12 months ago when paired with Aiden Colemand and today the trainers son gets the ride on the old boy for his inform yard and he could well confirm the form with Nacarat on last years running at the weights even thoug Nacarat was over a stone light of his previous performace in the race last year. Mount Oscar isnt gettting any younger and this would be his last chance in this race I would Imagine and the hope is that he does himself justice, but I cant see him going one better in this.

Planet of Sound brings the Hennessy form into this race and is the class horse of the race, that performance around Newbury would give him claims as he isso lightly raced these days he is plotted in races to give him the best of chances as he falls below top class and the top weight will need to show more then he did in the 2010 King George where he was a remote 5th. Consigleire is the runner for the Pipe Yard and was very impressive when a 20L winner over 21F at Wincanton two runs back, he ran well for the majority of the way in the Peter Marsh Chase behind according to Pete, but he has been a little hit and miss on the ground in the past and I reserve judgement on him in this as he is handicapped up to his best with a PB required but he has a nice racing weight for this and he does fit the right kind mould for a winner of this race as a solid handicapper is often the winner. Deep Purple won a handicap last time after a career of graded races over fences, he has winning course form over hurdles here and handles good racing ground well he looks to have been kept for this in mind before maybe taking on the grand national fences and was only raised 5lbs for that win at Sandown last time, the yard are in good form and he rates as a serious danger in this race to the Pipe horse and Nacarat I feel with a solid right handed profile to his name with 8 wins and a placed effort, he also like many of the top horses for his handler such as state ofplay goes well fresh in these types of races.

Deep Purple 1pt e/w @ 10/1

exellent thread well chief
a real pleasure to find someone putting logical well presented write ups alongside their selections
well done and good luck with your future punting.

4.45 Kempton Racing plus class 3 handicap 0-135

Ashbrittle of David Pipe has a lot to prove on handicap debut but wouldnt be a surprise winner as David Pipe excels with this type, while Paul Nichols Runner the reformer is entitled to improve for the first run of the season last time and has soli course form including over hurdles and is respected. Both Alan King runners returning from chasing are respected and maybe Like a hurricane is the prefered on jockey bookings but it be no surprise to see the top weight bounce back over a more favourable trip out of the two I feel.

Nicky Henderson often saddles winners at this track with a exceptioanl strike rae here and his two runners demand maxium respect with Busker Royal having ran well on boxing day behind Knight Pass and had Pause and clause held in behind, I expect him to confirm that form today under David Bass and is one that could go well, however the choice of Barry Gerghaty is the most intersting of the pair as she was very poor over fences which was a surprise to see her go chasing after she looked a winner in waiting over hurdles with a well placed 2nd to decoy at cheltenham at the start of the season, that day she had some useful runners in behind and ive always thought she would be kempton type. The yard are still in form and sh recorded both her wins going right handed so I believe she will have a good chance. Pause and Clause is kept in the notebook for ayr, aintree or cheltenham in the coming months, just hope that doesnt comeback and bite me in the arse, but he will certainly be a winner before long over this trip.

Semi Colon 1pt e/w @ 7/1

I like deep purple also but for the national itself, he won that sandown race impressively when upped to 3.5 and that really threw up the possibility of him wanting the extreme trip these days, i think he'll travel well before being outgunned at the end over the 3.

The one i'll be taking a chance with is ROYAL CHARM, a classy novice for nicholls last year when he was the early season arkle fav. when winning a couple at exeter.Unfortunately he was then off until aintree where he returned to run 3rd behind wishful thinking.First time up this year was the interesting run as he was stepped up to 3 miles for the first time at this track and was still travelling on the bridle when knuckling on landing in the race won by golan way, it was still a way from home but i got the impression he was the likely winner which is obviously debateable, but certainly looked as though he was appreciating the step up to 3 miles.His subsequent runs were back down to 2 miles which he disappointed in and then over hurdles, but it's just that run over 3 which impressed me and i think that maybe they took note of that run and protected him a bit subsequently with perhaps this in mind.

^
first run back at sandown of course ..not here.

3.25 Newcastle Eider Handicap Chase

A brutal staying race shouldnt be as testing as other years unless the rain hits newcastle in the monring. Morgan Be is a regular in this race and stays the trip well and has had a confidence booster with this in mind when winning over 3M under Ritchie Mcgrath, this has once again been the target for the horse and he can go well here today with a fairly decent racing weight. The ferdy murphy Horse finally won a chase race at the 11th time of asking and given the trainer it be no surprise to see it roll into the winners enclosure again here winning a big pot such as this even though his record in the race reads PP. Posh bird was beaten in the home straight by Mister marker who caught the eye the time before at haydock over hurdles in which he stayed on strongly that day and with stamina ensured is likely to reverse the running here today in my view. Incentivise looks handicapped well and has a low racing weight which is a bonus and is a stayer, Charlie poste does well for the yard and gets the leg up for the first time, but the break needs to have done him well I feel as the last run at Bangor was well below his usual form around that track. However for the winner I return to Ferdy's plot horse.

Nagus De Beaumont 1pt e/w @ 8/1

Nice analysis WC, taking you on in the Eider with Eyre Square. Only a few miles as the crow fly's from the course, and it is a fairly breezy but a relatively pleasant day, which does look set to continue.Imo the going should improve a little from the described come post time. GL

2.50 Cleves Stakes - Listed Sprint

The head of the market looks to have this sorted between them and the rightly so Favourite Oasis Dancer is likely to be hard to beat based on the most recent success over course & Distance in a handicap in which he gave weight to the likes of Googlette, Fratilino and moe importantly Capone and those three all reooppose at the weights to do on less favourable terms, the fact Jim Crowley sticks by Oasis Dancer is another significant factor as he rode the 2nd favourite Palace Moon last time to victory and therefore should have a idea of what it will take to beat that rival. The Majority of these have had plenty of runs and arent improving much to bridge the gap and the only one with a less exposed nature of those that have a chance is Googlette who has had six runs so far and the introduction of Jamie Spencer could bring her along further improvement, however she was put in her place last time and would need to find significant improvement on that run but a stonger pace would give her supporters some hope. The only fly in the otiment as to speak for the favourite is Docofthebay who won a listed race last time out for Dandy Nicholls and today on first run for Scott Dixon with Ian Mongan returning to the saddle, he is a danger but is more exposed then the favourite, but if on his best form for his new handler he could well follow up that win last time, but thats a big if.

Oasis Dancer 2pt win @ 13-8

3.20 Winter Derby Trail Stakes 10F

Our Joe Mac makes his debut on the all weather today after a unproductive time over hurdles and he still has a future over hurdles in my view as he just didnt hand the winter ground well and could well make hay over hurdles this spring, he has the class to go well in this race today with some strong handicapping form to his name on the turf including a good win at York back in August and has a chance. Loayalty looks held in handicaps now and takes on 10 furlongs in which he never excelled over and that has him being oppossed today at around 5/1. Junoob & Emma's Gift has very little between them on form, however the former has run well in these races in the past and has lots in his favour tday and should go close and if Our Joe Mac doesn't act as well on the all weather then Junoob should be the one to beat and with proven factors he is the best bet for this in my view.

Junoob 1pt e/w @ 5/1

Thanks for the update the robster and best of luck to you and duffy with your selections as well,hope u get a run for your money

Great stuff WC

Some excellent selections and great value prices today WC, well done, will have a more detailed look a bit later, but are you keeping a running P/L on the thread?

3 very nice winners today WC, and some very nice write up's to back up your thinking..WD

Fell nicely into place today WC
Wd
& cracking write ups

3.40 Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle

A tricky affair with several of these running into the unknown with the likes of Clerk Choice & Third Intention needing to prove they have the stamina, whilie the likes of Bally Legend has to make up ground and weight on Third Intention on their running against each other at Taunton, However Bally legend does have proven stamina in his locker if not as classy as that rival. Afsoun is the rag in this race and contested this race last year when finishing 3rd, he falls just below the stamina needed to win a race at this level and it will be a surprise if his effort 12 months ago proved strong enough to win this race, even though in a nice 8 runner size field he could get some place money. Duc Du reginere hasnt run well this season, but if he was to roll back the years he would be a serious contender for this and at 12-1 would be worth the risk. Topolski has to prove he stays and given his flat performances I believe he should get the trip, his win at Aintree last season in a grade 2 novice event would have him in the thick off it, but he has the injury doubt to get over.

Battle group has failed over fences and returned to hurdling last time at Cheltenham and wasnt disgraced over a trip short of his best, I expect he will run much better today over this more sutiable trip. The Trainer has a good record at Fontwell and I do believe today will be the ideal race for Battle Group today and is a overpriced at 14-1 for this in my view.

Battle Group 1pt e/w @ 14-1

I will do a update on bets later.

However the P/L is +24.23pts

3.00 Leicester Handicap Chase class 4 0-105

Arturo Uno has the headgear on for the first time but the last effort was too poor to be true and he has looked a lost horse so far this season. Tuskaa Rock returns and has to have a good after a year of the course, he is sure to go well for the infom Venetia Williams yard, while Thedreamstillalive would be a live threat if he was to return to some sort of his form that he showed 12 months ago when paired with Timmy Murphy. However the form of Get ready to go looks anything but straight forward, but he does have quite a bit in favour under these conditions today having ran on well at Doncaster the time before last and has a low racing weight with the handicapper having dropped him a stone since he took to fences, I believe this track could well bring out improvement in the horse and the yard are in good form at the moment so the hope is that the horse is in the right frame of mind, he is worth ago with stamina assured. Noble Wittness needs to prove he stays well enough to have a say at the weights, while the same has to be said for course speciaist Ours who has never previously shown he stays this far. Arturo Uno needs the headgear to reignite his chances and the favourite is returning after a year of the track. So at 9/1 I make him a worth while punt.

Get Ready to Go 1pt e/w @ 9-1

5 bets today.

3.25 Bangor Handicap hurdle class 2 20F

Bangor hosts a half decent card today and I am prepared to take on the well fancied favourite who is going the right way but has plenty more on his plate today and this looks a decent race with a few runners whose form at the weights on my calculations have a decent chance.

Cantlow for Paul Webber is one that can be considered to have a live chance in this handicap today as he has been waiting for this better ground and a chance to tackle this kind of company after a solid effort at Sandown last time over 22F, The slightly shorter trip isnt ideally likely to suit on the book but he did improve for the drop back last time from 24F, so the hope is that there could be further improvement to come from him. The Jigsaw Man is another who has a decent chance on the book after a very decent 4th in a better handicap hurdle then this last time at Newbury in which he caught the eye after making up good ground before emptying 3 out, so the drop back in trip should suit him today as he has some solid form over 20F in the book and handles these better conditions well and should go close. Radetsky March won well last time in a lower class race but the ground has kind of gone against him today and the other that could go well is the mare Cloudy Spirit who never really figured at ascot in a grade 2 for mares race over 3M, she stayed on that day without ever looking dangerous and this should be more to her liking with Timmy Murphy a interesting booking for the horse. She has the talent and ability to win a handicap off 132 and this is her type of ground and time of year so she is certainly overpriced at 14-1 and is my choice along with the Jigsaw man for this.

Cloudy Spirit 1pt win @ 14-1 & The Jigsaw Man 1pt @ 10-1

3.55 Bangor Handicap Chase Class 3

Valley View could and maybe will be hard to beat at the weights today under AP McCoy, but the odds on for me is a no play as the horse has a few things to prove here despite being unexposed. This is a totally different task for the horse as he goes up in class on a different type of track under different conditions and has to prove he stays this 3M, Now the ground shouldnt be a problem having handled it to good effect at Towcester the time before last, but the step up in trip isnt certain to suit in my view, there are too many if's to back at odds on and I only have him 3lbs in hand over Bold Ransom today who does have stamina in abundance. There are a few doubts over this rival too but I think the drop back in trip for this horse will suit in a small field aginst easier opponents then he has been running against and has at least shown form this season unlike Fablau for the McCain yard. Daldini looks gone at the game and the only concern for a each-way punt on bold Ransom is the french import who was no match in france for none other then Long Run. However at 7-1 Bold Ransom isa big price and could jump them all ragged under Timmy Murphy here who rode him to the haydock win.

Bold Ransom 2pt e/w @ 7-1

4.25 Bangor Handicap Hurdle class 3

Another decent looking handicap on the card and one in which Dawn Commander should go well on handicap debut for Richard Johnson and Charlie Longsdon who has a good return for his handicap hurdlers at this track. The trip shouldnt be a problem on his first try over 3M under rules as he staye well in his points career and should make the shortlist here today. Mauricetheathlete could go well at the foot of the weights as he stays well, however the improved conditons arent certain to suit and he has to prove his wellbeing after a fall over fences last time. The claimmer takes him down to a feather weight so not totally out of it as his odds suggest, but he does need a PB on a surface that he hasnt proved to be ideal in the past. Requin is in my notebook for a chase race as he was likely to be placed in a listed affair at ascot and fell, his next effort suggested his confidence had gone and this return to hurdles looks a confidence booster. Balerina & Lord Crewe have claims with the latter with proven stamina likely to go well for the Hobbs team whose runners are showing signs of improvement after a torrid month.

The one that does look to have a solid chance on the book is Cloudy Too who ran well in a similiar type of race back in December at this track and has been waited with for this type of ground and the 77 day absence shouldnt be any basis to discount him on as the Sue Smith yard have caught the eye in the last 7 days. He is proven on the ground and off the same mark here and can reverse the form with Dais Return I feel.

Cloudy Too 1pt e/w @ 11-1

4.15 Kent National Class 3 Handicap

Miko De Beauchene has got a chance on the book at the weights today and his 8th at Warwick in a grade 3 behind Hey Big Spender isnt terriable form and he could well be worth chancing today in this easie affair as the handicapper has dropped him a stone for the latest effort at haydock in which he pulled up behind Giles Cross in really testing conditions underfoot. The fact is he was actually travelling up with the pace quite kindly when making a mistake which was then meet with another mistake and when the pressure started to build up with the better jumpers around him he folded tamely. What he is though is a stayer through and through and should get every yard of this trip today. The sharp nature of this track should suit as he has a good record on these type of tracks. The major concern has to be the ground despite on breeding he should handle it,but he has been kept away from it so often in the past after showing little form on it that he may best be oppossed.

Upham Atom didnt run too badly at Sandown last time as he plugged on and handles the ground in which this marathon trip should really suit him based on Wincanton run over 27F, he has a lighter raced profile for this and a nice racing weight to excel off, this looks to have been his target with spring ground much in his favour and he has fallen to a attractive mark in which 8/1 looks a big price. Cerium Went well the other day at Warwick and was just denied by Fortfication, he loves it round Warwick and returned to form that day, he could well win this after being turned out quickly, but it is a first for the horse to be turned out this quickly before as he has been very lightly raced for the past couple of years. Power Pack jack has to prove his stamina and same applies to Chapolimoss who seeks a hatrick.

Upham Atom 1pt e/w @ 8/1

Good write ups again, may your success continue.

good stuff WC

4.00 Ludlow Forbra Gold Challenge Cup Handicap Chase Class 3


Cootehill for the Twiston-Davies yard has plenty in his favor today as he bids to follow his win last time out at Leicester after several consistent performances at Ludlow prior to that win and has only 6lbs rise to overcome, Whilst the Hobbs Yard will be hoping for a winning return with Fairoak Lad who returns after a absence of 494 days in which the yard are usually good at readying them at the first time of asking and this right handed track should really be ideal for the horse as he has a very decent record right handed. Against him maybe the biggest danger will come from Checkerboard, if the Fergal O’Brien horse can return to some sort of form as he was a decent 2nd to Kennan’s Future at Aintree back in June last year, since that day he has had two runs against better opponents then this and failed to show any true form. There may be some excuses you can make as the ground had soft in going the description and he is very much a top of the ground horse, so a better show should be seen today. Drumbaloo is a unknown quantity over fences and could improve for the switch as he has ability (grade 2 bumper winner in Ireland) Whilst Theatre Diva is a consistent type albeit in non handicap races. Estates Recovery is inferior to Fairoak lad at the weights today and needs to improve. Roseneath would have a chance with maybe slower ground then today.

Fairoak Lad 1pt e/w @ 9-2

4.30 National hunt Novice Handicap Hurdle class 3

A nice little race with obviously plenty of improvers in to consider and the rag Autumn Spirit has shown much more over fences then he ever did over hurdles and needs to show those sort of performances over the smaller obstacles to have a chance in this today. An Cappel Mor ran on at Doncaster but had no chance with the easy winner that day Tour D`Argent and the McCain yard are in a rich vein of form at the moment with a very rare bad runner. That performance at Doncaster would have him thereabouts of this mark but the conditions of this race are much different to that day and he needs to prove he stays this extra trip as his precious two attempts at 2.5M have seen him well beaten albeit on tough going, the easier conditions underfoot should see if he does stay well enough and at around 7/1 he may well be worth the risk in this. Hit the Headlines is certain to see this trip out well having won at Huntingdon over 21F the time before last and was below par last time at Kempton when finishing 3rd to the Druids Nephew, he now takes on handicap company for the first time of a mark that should be well within his ability to win. Warwick winner themilanhorse has improvement and is another who stays well, he maybe a little bit short for what he has achieved and needs to find improvement on that average affair he won last time. So Happyharry sets the standard in handicap hurdle company in this having finished 3rd here to Foxbridge and he has a chance on that running, but is more exposed then his main rivals and level of form may just be below them. Foe me Nicky Henderson Hit the Headlines looks like a horse with potential and is my bet in front of an cappel mor who doesn’t have proven stamina yet.


Hit the Headlines 1pt win @ 11-4


4.20 Follow Southwell on twitter Handicap Class 4 12F


The filly Mazij is closely matched with Admirable Duque and The Lock Master over this course and distance in which she finished behind those two rivals and the only difference other then the change in the weights today is that the last mentioned has a different jockey on board today, with Neil Chalmes Back in the saddle.  I Can see The Lock Master reversing the form here today after a decent spin here over a mile last time out and he is very consistent around here and should run his usual race, the Filly shouldn’t have the run of the race with Pertemps Network in the race.  Tricksofthetrade seems to be going the right way and ran with much credit last time over 12F here and seems to be improving with every run on this surface, the last effort was a decent one and he has much more to come and should handle this step up in class.


Tricksofthetrade 1pt e/w @ 11-2


8.10 32red handicap 11F class 4

The feature race on the Kempton card sees my Name is Franco a short priced favorite for this handicap based on the run last time behind Layline at lingfield and this course specialist is likely to go well, however I do feel he is a little on the short side for this and I am prepared to take him on with the inform yard of Tom Danscombe and his runner Brouhaha who gets the services once again of Richard Kingscote who is riding very well at the moment. The last time these two paired up they finished 1L 2nd to Raucous Behavior and since that day he has fallen to attractive mark to run well in this tonight, the race should be run to suit and he holds a strong chance I feel against the fav as there isn’t enough between them to warrant the price difference. Maatleb could spring a surprise if able to show the promise he showed at Goodwood last summer, while Scamperdale has a lot in favor, but the old boy showed next to nothing on last two runs to be considered as a viable back for this.

Brouhaha 2pt e/w @ 8-1

Gl with these, just wondered where you got 9/2 fairoak, which bookies ?

Just 3 bets ona pretty average looking Friday race cards

2.55 WAR PARTY 1pt win @ 8/1 (365)

The last run at Sandown was quite a fetching effort by this horse as he meet some trouble in running around a track that takes some jumping and even though he was a little bit sketchy at a few fences he stayed on to good effect to suggest that a winning is in the offering and today with the addition of the head strong Marodima in the race I can see him staying on to good effect as he gets further then this 17F which given the likely strong pace he will need to stick on strongly. The Addition of Wake board in the race for the same owner has suggested that to me that he weight has been kept off with that rival in the race and the jockey claim of 5lbs putting him on a nice racing weight of 10 stone 11lbs and with drying spring conditions very much to his liking he should give a good show here today. his best effort in the last 12 months was  close 2nd at Aintree back in June under the same jockey as today and this track should be ideal from the change from Sandown as a flat left handed track looks very much to his liking and I expect he should go close at a nice price for his chance of 8/1.

4.50 MONTOYA'S SON 1pt win @ 8/1 Fred's

Has a lot in favour today if he reproduces his run here back in December in which he stayed on to finish 1L 3rd to Quicuyo and the form of that race has worked out well since. However Montoya's son has struggled since being raised just 2lbs for that effort. The Musselbrugh run not many got into that race as the winner jumped them all ragged in what lookd a competitive handicap chase and thenext run at Newcastle on really soft ground he was pulled up after struggling at half way over a trip that was further then he had ever ran before and the ground softer then ideal, it most probably wasnt the ideal race placement for the horse but the handicapper has shorrterned him by 2lbs for that effort so he is once again on the same mark as when he stayed on over C&D. The going stick suggest that the ground is going to be to his favor today providing they havent over watered and his record in small fields is decent. The horse has a good record from March to June and should land a race this spring and at a big price is worth ago.

5.00 Titan truimph 1pt win @ 13-2 PP

The William Knight yard are in good form and Titan truimph is back on a winning mark and one that the ability he still retains can be won off I feel. The fact that he is so effective around here. he has been running over a mile in recent weeks and hasnt been disgraced behind winners such as Locentanks, Forceful Appeal and Marajaa in better races then he contests today, this is a easier race and last time he didnt get home under Shane Kelly urgings and he certainly responds better to Jim crowley strong handling and the drop back to this 7F I feel could see him land a race at lingfield where he has recorded 6 of his 8 career wins and 5 under today's pilot despite the fact that he has to pass all rivals from his wide draw, he does has a turn of foot and even though he stayed on behind Numeral last time over 7F here and couldnt peg them back, those 3 that finished in front of him that day, have all ran well in better races since (chilli Green winner of 5lbs higher, Amitola winner 3lbs higher and Numeral only beaten 1.25L in a class 2 off 5lbs higher).

Hopefully a better day tomorrow. Best of luck all

I defer to your greater knowledge but have to take you on with Lord Singer in the 2:55. He fell last time at the second of the railway fences having jumped the fence fine but just crumpled on landing. It did not look a bad fall and consequently coming back after seven days does not look a problem. It was too far out to tell if he would have won but he was travelling strongly having pulled hard for the first half mile. He will also be suited by the strong pace Marodima will set and a return to a left hand course might also be a plus as he was jumping slightly left over the railway fences.

Not given any respite by the handicapper his mark of 120 is probably just fair, as is his price of 4/1 on Betfair currently.

GL.

another profitable day...well done

3.25 BENNY BE GOOD 1pt win @ 5-1 (Betfair, VC, PP)
Travelled quite kindly last time before finding the grade 2 hurdle behind restless harry too much to handle in the soft conditions and the time before he ran a ok race over hurdles in a half decent pertemps quailifer at Huntingdon. However he has been hit by the handicapper for the 2nd over fences the time before where him and his victor pulled a long way clear of the rest and he has to carry top weight in the grimthorpe today, however this isnt as competitive race as you would imagine for the pot and he is best over this trip with the conditions underfoot likely to be ideal for him. This looks to be the plan for the stable star and even under the weight I feel he should go close in this handicap.

4.35 TAKEROC 3pt win @ 4-1 (Billy's, PP, Boyles)

Harry Derham takes off 7lbs of the back of Takeroc who would have had top weight without the claimmers claim and the young lad has a good record on this 9yo who has ideal conditions underfoot and wasn't disgraced in the Desert Orchid chase at kempton where he finished 8L to Finnan's Rainbow and that piece of form wasnt to bad in the context of today's race where he is able to use the jockey claim to overcome a handicap high mark. The horse often comes to hand around this time of the year and he is much better weighted with Quicyo on aintree running where he excelled last spring.

4.10 According to Pete 2pt win @ 5-2 (Lads, betfair & Boils)

3 runners in this race have a chance and Master of the Hall could well take all the beating in this if in the right frame of mind, whilie the Grand National winner Ballybriggs only defeat came in this race 12 months ago as he has his prep run for the grand national and is respected as the class horse in the race. However accordin to pete loves it around this track and is in really good form at the moment, his latest win in a grade 2 handicap chase showed that he is a hose going the right way and even though the conditions underfoot are different from those gruelling tests, he has acted well under these conditions in the past and I feel as the outsider of the 3 main players in this handicap he has every chance today to defy those odds as he has little question marks over him in terms of fittness and wanting to run his race.

2.40 Blazing Baily 1pt win @ 11-1 (Fred's)

Couple of dissapointing effots of late but he did run well in the Hennessy Gold Cup here back in November and is better handicapped now as he takes on the vets as a 10yo and even though he finished behind Fair Along that day, I feel he can reverse the form here on more favourable terms, the hennessy Gold Cup was quite a competitive handicap this year with no real superstar involved in the race and a few of those who raced in that event could be landing races in the coming weeks I feel. The return of Robert Thorton to the saddle should help this horse with 9 wins coming from this pairing and he always have threatened to land a race around here in his 4 efforts at this track in which he has ran into the likes of Inglies Driver & Big Bucks over hurdles. 9 of his wins have come in the first 3rd of the year and his form in class 2 handicaps is good as well. The stable are in very good form at the moment.

[b]3.10 Aerial 1pt win @ 9-2 general[b]


Paul Nichols has a strong hand in this handicap and his progressive Aerial wasn't disgraced behind The Giant Bolster last time at Cheltenham and based on lbs to lengths he comes out in front of his stablemate pasco who was well beaten here over 3M behind the giant bolster and time for rupert on soft ground, that rival is a course specialist and should go better then he did that day, however Aerial is improving and the run at Cheltenham he had a few of these in behind and the flatter track of Newbury I feel will suit him more then Cheltenham, The 3lbs dropped by the hanicapper is generous and woolcombe Folly once again is entered in the race to keep the weight off his back. Aerial has beaten many of these and should go close in this today with the likes of fix a rib & Pasco setting up the race for the likes of aerial to stick on strongly.

3.55 Forceful Appeal 2pt win @ 5-1 (boils, VC & lads)

Open handicap as you would imagine around lingfield and a mile, the top weight Mr Willis should once again close as he continues to run well and is repected, whilie Numeral should go well with Richard Hughes replacing his regular jock and the Mare is in good form as well. However Hayley Turner rides a horse very much on a upwards curve and was shade cosy latest when holding off the challange of Titan Truimph who won well today and should go close in this handicap today providing the 4yo traps well and gets a handy position from draw boy 10 today, the 4lbs rise in the weights looks to be underestimated on this horse and he can take this before taking on class 2 races and listed events on the all weather prior to the turf season starting.

Good luck WC, Great work.

Nice winners on a saturday again. Good work

WD WC. Nice BOG bonus for you. Went 10's on here shortly after you posted - loons

Another day in profit WC
What its all abt

Well done. Nice to see your informed analysis paying off.
Hope you go on to achieve the same as Robster.

3.40 Huntingdon - CARRICKMINES 1PT @ 4/1 (General)

Richard Johnson is booked for Carrickmines and has two wins to date on this seasonal campaginer and the right handed Huntingdon track should see him go well on a winning mark today, the rain has come at the right time and Carricmines enjoys these types of conditions. The 3M around here should suit despite in the past he hasnt run well here, but those days he didnt have his ground or was up against it. Today he has company to beat that he is more then capable off and everything in his favour, his last few efforts over fences havent been great but he was against much better rivals those days, the run behind Gorge would have him involved in this handicap. Sound Accord is the obvious danger, while dot or feather is open to improvement,while Cast cada would have been a big threat if the rain didnt come. However I do believe Carrickmines should go well and at 4-1 I think is a fair price for his chance to have a small investment on.

Best of luck all

Good luck with todays selection WC, are you not doing a running P/L to keep us informed?

Great write up as usual but will be opposing you on this one with sound accord.trip and ground no problem down in weights and a trainer i admire in b ellison who had a good winner yesterday with ultimate

Had been salivating all night about 20/1+ on Cast Cada. The £5 merchants ruined the early price again but they are going to rue it as the rain will have completely ruined his chance.

4.45 Hereford - ROUGHAM 3pts win @ 7-2 (Lads, PP, 365)

I was tempted to back Only Vintage at a big price as on the book that horse has given carrickboys a pasting in the past but the 12yo was very poor last time at Wincanton and is a much better horse then that, however he is hard to back for this today as his profile is very much one to be on when Richard Johnson is paired with the horse at Folkestone. The horse I like for this is the Philip Hobbs horse Rougham who is a winner in waiting of this mark 2lbs higher then when he was last successful over fences and only time he was successful over fences in his chasing career. Still only 6yo I feel there is more to come from this horse and he was travelling up nicely when falling 4 out at Taunton in a better class of handicap then this. I would imagine if he had stood up he would have been involved in the finish that day and the winner of that handicap ran well in a novice grade 1 the other week so the form has got some substance to it. A reporduction of the Sandown 3rd to Roudoudou Vile and midnight Appeal would have him winning this and with ground likely to be on the soft side of good, he should have his conditions underfoot today to suit with a righ handed track that Richard Johnson has a strong strike rate at and the stable one to follow in chases at this track.

Well done Sound Accord backers today and good to see that horse back to something like its best.
Profit & Lost so far +26.98pts

Best of luck all

3.30 Exeter - CLASH DUFF 1pt Win @ 10-1 (General)

I feel the unexposed Jeremy Scott runner has a solid chance in this handicap after running well for a long way last time out at Warwick behind the likes of Cerium, Trip the light & the winner that day Fortfication and what he did was stay on nicely to suggest that these marathon trips are ideal for the horse and can improve on that effort. The horse denied me a bet back two runs ago when improving for the step up in soft conditions on the right handed track of huntingdon and last time he improved again, he is going the right way and the fact he has gone well on right handed tracks in his previous 3 runs, I do feel this exeter track coupled with the extra furlong will have him improving again, on the formbook he may have a bit to find with Ammunition on my calculations and that horse who won this 12 months ago is sure to be amongst the finishers again, But I do believe this horse can bridge the gap as he is going the right way and has a lot in favour. Mortimers Cross has decent form but isnt certain to stay this trip as he looked to have improved for the drop back last time. Upham Atom who stayed on well the other day to land a pot is respected, but for me Clash duff has the improvement to beat him and deny Amunation a repeat in this handicap.

4.50 Newcastle - SAFARI ADVENTOURS 1pt Win @ 16-1 (LADS)
I cant miss the chance to back Lucinda Russell Safari Adventours with the hope he finds his feet again over this stiffish 20F which should suit him to te ground. The horse has had a torrid time recently and dropped to a nice handicapping mark in the process. The last two runs over 16F I would say is a little on the sharp side for the horse these days and his best form have been over 20F in the past so a return to this trip could see him bounce back to form as his last 3 runs have been over 24,16,16 in which they have decided to stay clear of 20F races and that has meant since the 19F run at Doncaster he has dropped a stone in the process. The run back in November at Kelso was a decent effort and the other back in Wetherby would have him clear of these at today weights, He gets a mountain of weight from trustan times who could be yet another novice with a false handicap mark (been quite a few recently) and dancing art who is a horse that has solid course form, however at the price I will take a chance with Safari Adventours who is due another win for a ayard that does well with handicap chasers


One race rom Southwell tomorrow which I will do in the morning. Best of luck all

4.40 Southwell - Colour Guard 2pt win @ 2-1 (tote)

I think he will take all the beating after finishing 4th in a similiar type of race to this he went on to improve again in a simpller task next time in a lower grade and even though his rider that day was slow to remove the blind he was still far too good for them and was eased, stepped back into this company he has Joe Fanning on top and I have him clear on the ratings to win this today in a easier looking handicap then the one he finished 4th in.

Great start Chief, you know your jumpers!
Not so sure that Colour Guard has beaten much though, very well done again!

Robbo and yourself are quite astounding

Fantastic WC, the forum is in great hands

WD WC
Keep flushing them out

Well done WC!

Thanks for Clash Duff WC, just come in and discovered my Betfair account looks considerably healthier than it did 24 hours ago. Backed Elhamri too so doubly chuffed.

6.00 Kempton – TRUE TO FORM 1pt win @ 3-1 (General)

The Mark Johnston horse License to till has returned to the UK having shown little abroad recently and on his return the yard have found him a decent little class 2 handicap to get his teeth into and on the book he has a great chance despite the fact he has to give weight away to all his rivals. The last time we saw him on these shores he was running well at lingfield in a similar type of race behind Emerald Wilderness over 10F and the form of that race would have him involved in the finish of this race tonight. His wellbeing is the only factor of concern as the transformation from Lingfield to Kempton doesn’t worry me due to the fact the horse ran well on his only start at this track. He may well be the most exposed runner in the field but he is also the only horse to have recorded a victory at this level. The big danger is the quickly turned out True to form who ran well over a mile on Saturday, this trip should suit him having gone well over this 10 furlongs before and the yard turning him out quickly is very eye catching as his record reads 3 wins and a placed effort when turned out within a week of last run. The fact the horse has everything in favor from that run over this 10F bar the better class of race suggests he should be backed rather than License to till who is running for first time since his stint abroad. There is very little between them at the weights in terms of ability under today’s conditions, Just True to form deserves to be shorter as he has less of a question mark over his head and I feel he can take this on first run in a class 2 Handicap.


3.30 Fontwell – REBEL MELODY 2pt win @ 11-4 (General)

Course winner Rebel Melody has been shaping well recently and looks like he is ready to strike with the drying ground very much in his favor and on ability he is better than these if in the right frame of mind as he is now 11yo. However his record in March suggests this is his time of year to catch him and the jockey’s 10lbs claim takes him down to a feather weight for this handicap today so he is very much well in at the weights today. His recent good efforts have been under Noel Fehily so the fact he has 10lbs further of his back today means he has been dropped further in as the handicapper has eased him a further 1lb for a 3rd at Hereford on soft ground. The horse sees this 26F out well as all his career wins have come over 26F and the level of form he has shown on drying good to soft going suggest it should be foot perfect for him today, the short 42 day absence is a positive and the Charlie Mann yard are in good order at the moment which is coupled in nicely with the fact the yard does very well in handicap chases at this track. The Venetia Williams and Evan Williams yard are in good form and Plunkett is a danger if staying the trip well, but I do think Rebel Melody can bounce back to form here.

Current running P & L +36.98pts

Had a feeling you might select Rebel Melody in the 3.30. Going to oppose you with an 8 year old maiden but very lightly raced at 5 and 6; by far his better run was over this 27F a few runs back and he will also appreciate the slightly better going (4mm rain this morning, so only soft now) and off a career low 86 with Paddy Brennan booked off his lowest riding weight. I think this could be his day. Venetia's surely has too much to do off 119 but could also enjoy the longer trip.

So 2pt win Current Climate at 5/1 on here for me. GL.

nice i/r price trusty , hope u got some

True to form for the chief, another good winner, shame you got the stakes the wrong way around! Well done WC.

The pot keeps filling WC

WD to the trusty one btw

U was right Trusty, Well done.

5.00 Southwell MONSIEUR JAMIE 2pt Win @ 16-1 (365)

My only bet of the day is Monsieur Jamie who should be suited to this return to fibresand today in a handicap in which Scott Dixon has a strong hand. However I think the Jenkins yard are likely to spoil the party with this course specialist who finished last at Wolves last time in which he was returning after a short break from racing having ran well 3 times in a row at Southwell, The handicapper has dropped him back down in the weights and he returns to Southwelll just 2lbs higher then when last winning on the all weather. The Re-introduction of the jockey who broke his maiden tag is eye catching and the horse who is one of the least exposed runners in this field can progress further under these conditions and looks overpriced at 16-1 I feel.The only two efforts at this track where he didnt run his race he didnt trap well and that was the reason Six Wives reversed the previous running with the horse who had previosuly put him in her place and is much better weighted with that rival based on his win over course & Distance, Yet Monsieur Jamie is over twice the price and if he bounces out well tomorrow I feel he could well be hard to peg back.

Best of luck all

5.05 Newcastle - ROLECARR 1pt win @ 4-1 (365 & PP)

Morgan Be finished in front of Rolecarr last time these two meet over 3M at Newcastle and maybe Morgan Be can confirm the form on a track that he acts well on, however he had a hardrace in the eider chase at newcastle on his custom route throughout the season and this scottish National trail I feel could be the main target for the novice Rolecarr who looks a horse that will stay further then this trip, he improved I feel last time in a decent novice chase behind the useful Helpston in which he had the likes of Fransceti Park well beaten in behind as the first two pulled clear on better ground, however he couldnt muster the pace to challange and the softer conditions under foot should suit his stamina that he has to go well in this today over a extra furlong in which he is 2 from 2 runs over so far. The horse is only 9yo and open to more improvement and I feel he can reverse the form with Morgan Be. Bishops Heir needs to prove stamina and Id be surprised if he was to confirm form with carrickboys if they meet again, while Et Maintent is better over 20F then 25F in which his form level is just below the two favourably mentioned earlier. Meringo & Heez a Steel could run better then they have but cant be backed until they show some form.

2.55 Sandown - ARMURY DE LUSIGNAN 4pts win @ 4-6 (Boils)

The unexposed Armury De Lusignan is likely to be very tough tobeat here today having handed out quipe me posted a beating just last week and is on a unpwards curve and it will be a surprise to see that form reversed here today at Sandown despite the 7lbs rise in the weights. The improved conditions underfoot will give Quipe me Posted connections some reason to believe their horse can reverse the form as the ground at Plumpton may have been more soft then good racing ground and the drier conditions at sandown today could well see a improved effort from that horse, however even his form on better ground has him as a little bit short on the form the Moore horse showed in his short career and the favourite should be hard to beat. The biggest challange may well come in the shape of Owner Occuiper who had a spin over hurdles latest in prerp for this, the horse was no match for Armury De Lusignan at Folkestone back in Jan, but won this very race last season and has similiar conditions to run off again with him dropping to his winning mark,the 13lbs better terms with Armury de Lusignan should help his cause here, but the concern is he isnt in the same kind of form over fences as the previous year as his folkestone performance this time around was 17lbs lower then last years effort, but u could also argue this years race is weaker then last years renwal. The fav beat him too far and should confirm the form on his way to better handicaps.

4.05 Sandown - Semi Colon 2pt win @ 5-1 (LADS & BOILS)

Heathcote looks like he has a handicap in him, but im not sure if the 10yo is capable of seeing off a few unexposed types in this handicap today but at a biggish price he is worth a each-way bet I feel, However semi Colon I feel has a race in her and wasnt far off at kempton last weekend in a similiar type of race to this in which she finished 4th and a reproduction of that effort she should go close in this handicap for Nicky Henderson and Barry Gergahty as its been a quiet week for the stable this week they could well start of the next 8 days well with this horse here today. The ground is perfect for her and she is certain to pick up one of these hurdle races with much in her favour after catching the eye earlier on in the season. Against her today Kasbadali for the inform yardof Oliver Sherwood should also go well after winning well on all weather in one of those bumper races while the cold snap hit, he is a horse I quite like and will do well over fences I feel next season or throughout the upcoming summer as he handles decent racing ground well. The trip today maybe the bare minimum the horse wants having shaped with much promise over 3M at newbury last year behind Sivola De Sivola and that looks decent handicapping form and I think he will go well. This looks on the short side for the top weighted Hawkes Point and I can see him being off his feet in this handicap with Quinte De Chartlet taking them along at a clip. Bobcatbilly has had some tough tasks over hurdles so far but failed in a novice handicap hurdle last time and I feel this is tougher.   

6.50 Wolverhampton - BRUNSTON 2pt win @ 4-1 (Boils)

William Haigh and Queen of Denmark are both unexposed with the former back tackling this longer trip after successfully dropping to a mile in good fashion last time at Southwell. He returns to the track where he won over 12F needing more I feel to defy the higher handicap mark tonight of 12lbs higher and that for me could see his winning run coming to an end here. The latter however is the biggest danger having been sent of a warm order to beat Brunston last time over this course and distance in which she didnt have any excuses having been given a decent position in which to strike off after a decent gallop was set by Pertemps Network who was wel beaten in the end, however there was no suggestion that she was unlucky and Brunston despite showing a tendency to hang left soon passed her and went on to win nicely. He should confirm that form here tonight I feel and has some decent speed figures over 12F to call upon. Layline is another who gets the trip and comes into he equation as a danger with Shane Kelly continuing to be booked for the ride, the last effort was a below par effort and maybe a return left handed will see him in better light, but he is best at Lingfield so I feel he may just be beaten here.

Best of luck all and hopefully I will at least get a run for my money today as Monsieur Jamie refused to do so. Shame as Six Wives was my next best in the race, jut felt MJ had the beating on past meeting. Oh well onwards and upwards.

Well Chief are you struggling to get all your cash on? Looking forward to your selections for today especially the Imperial Cup.

Well I am going to put my winner up first!

I cannot help but back El Dancer in the Imperial Cup. Two years ago he carried top weight of 11-8 when ridden by Geraghty and finished mid pack. Today he is off virtual bottom weight of 10-2 and is reunited with Dominic Elsworth who has ridden him only twice, finishing 2nd and 1st.

I am not sure what went wrong with this horse but clearly the long break was because of a problem and when he came back to chasing at the end of last year after two runs they quickly put him back over hurdles. I am not claiming that Lucy Wadham is Jimmy Fitgerald re-incarnated but those last two runs under a conditional jock have got the mark down to a level that is a stand-out.

So let's hope that El Dancer can become the second winner for Lucy who has a good record in the race (1/2/9 last 10 years) and at around 90/1 on here, 66/1 on the books, well worth a point e/w. GL.

I meant to also put that although no 8yr old has won in the last 10 years. Their place record is 22% (4/18) versus:

8: 4/18 22%
7: 9/52 17%
6: 9/62 14%
5: 6/42 14%
4: 1/8  12%

So if I can get 16/17 the place on here later, I am going to have an extra point.

GL.

2.20 Wolverhampton ELSHABAKIYA 1pt win @ 6-1 (General) 

Belgium Bill has the best piece of form coming into this race when finishing 1L behind Songcraft at Meydan not so long ago, however this is a far cry from the 10F he contested that day and even though he has the booking of Paul Hannagan for George Baker I am going to pass him over in this listed event today. Night Lilly Won a decent handicap latest and she is respected in this while Clockmaker has top course and distance form and is likely to give his running as well. However my choice is Elshabiyka for the Clive Britten yard as she is useful at this level and is a 7F horse and ran with much credit over 6F in similiar type of event to this back in November at Lingfield behind docofthebay, She should improve for this step back up to seven furlongs and should be very much ready to go on first run for over 100 Days. She is still a maiden but has had some tough asks in her 11 runs contesting 4 group races and 5 listed races. Brett Doyle has a good record for Clive Britten who does well in these types of races.

2.40 Sandown QHILIMAR 1pt @ 13-2 (365 & Lads)

On past form Richard Sundance would have solid claims in this race on his best form from the past 2 years but the horse has seemly regressed since running well at Cheltenham in some big race handicap, however he does stay this trip well and certainly handles the going so there is everychance that he could bounce back to form in this handicap today and at 10-1 in some places he shouldn't be readily discounnted after running well here last time out behind Midnight Appeal. Marty's Mission has plenty in favour and seems to be as good as ever and finished in front of Richard Sundance in the same race, the return of Ruby Walsh is likely to help him in his assistance to confirm that running today and there should be no reason why he cant confirm the running here today. Charlie Longsdon yard havent been right recently and his Qhilmar maybe can be forgiven his run last time out at Ascot against better class of rivals. He runs well at this track and goes well for his handler today and hopefully he is back to his best form. Song Sung Blue returned in good form last time over shorter but this is tougher and he has to carry top weight as well.

More to come. Went out last night so don all studying this morning. Got my bets on

3.30 Sandown - John Spirit 1pt win @ 20-1 & Devil to Pay 1pt win @ 8-1

John Spirit is my dark horse for this handicap having tracked the horse progress through novice hurdles and even more so in handicap hurdles in which he continues to run well with finding one to good, however I feel this race will be perfect for him today with a strong pace likely to bring further improvement from him. Devil to Pay is likely to have one of these handicaps in him andhas improved with every run since his return at Taunton from a absence, he was onlyjust beaten last time out by a rival with a strong form line and is certain to be involved in the finish for this handicap, the stable jock is back on top for todays target and this will be a timely boost for cheltenham. Pascha bere at a big price has a good chance with this field likley to suit him today rather then the field he finished behind the progressive Ted Spread who continues to improve but has a 15lbs hike in the weights.


3.30 Wolverhampton - TAROOQ 1pt win @ 6-1 (365)

The Richard Fahey team send the consistent Tarooq for this lincoln Trail and he has a strong chance in this handicap having ran so well in recent races leading up to this and I feel can see off both Mia's Boy and Amitola who both have decent chaces in this handicap. However Tarooq under Paul Hannaghan who has a superb record on the horse and should be involved in the finish today and reverse the form with Amitola who won at lingfield. The last effort when just denied by Night Lilly he was staying on strongly and this extended mile should very much suit him and I be disapointed if he isnt involved in the finish at the very least as he is well drawn in 5.

4.00 Ayr - PROSECCO 1pt win @ 6-1 (General)

The old boy Polar Gunner has a chance in this handicap if he can still produce the level of form he showed back in 2010 at the age of 15yo and the same applies to Nelson Du Roncery who won a easier race last time out over hurdles and now return to handicap chases and the hope is that he can get back to winning ways over fences. However Prosecco has strong claims in this race today having ran over further last time out over 20 furlongs and should spperciate the drop back to 2M today around a track that suits him well.The handicap mark of 110 should be within his grasp here today as at 10yo he should be in his prime as a handicap chaser. The ground today should be ideal with plenty of cut.

4.50 Chepstow - BUFFALO BOB 1pt win @ 4-1 365 & VC

Buffalo Bob should go well in this handicap today and looks the most solid option, the ground and trip are ideal and he had a confidence booster two runs back and can be forgiven his effort here last time in a better rac in which he was slightly outpaced when the race started to kick on behindOh crick. The longer trip today should help him and even though he was a fortunate winner the time before at Ayr he still has a good chance at the weights and Jason maguire booked for the ride is yet another positive for the horse. Plein PouVoir is on a winning mark, whilie the 12yo Massini Sunset has the ability to win a handicap such as this but is finding it hard to refind his form of old.

4.05 Warwick - TOBY BELCH 2pt win @ 5-1


Looks a stay in the making and should stay this sharp trip today under the guidence of Richard Johnson. The ground is ideal for him and the recent run at leicester he was heavily supported to win that handicap in which he found one just too good for him. This is a step into the unknown but Henry Daly charge by Presenting I feel will readily stay this trip as he improved over hurdles for stiffer tests of stamina. Trip the Light is a perment fixture in these types of races and should go well again round Warwick, while Minella Theatre is another that should give his running.

4.25 Market Rasen - PEEDEEQUE 1pt win @ 10-1

Has a nice light weight for his first effort over 3M and I feel will improve for these longer trips as even when he is well in at the weights he makes heavy Weather of it. The formlines he has tied in with a few of these and can be forgiven the latest effort at Wetherby. This track I feel should suit and he can deby course specialist Jukebox Melody who had to concede a lot of weight to this rival today and may find this ground not ideal as he has seemed to enjoy getting his toe in.

3.40 Stratford handicap chase class 3

Otage de Biron sets the mark to be aimed at on my ratings with the most in comparison with the traits needed in this race today and his score of 127 which I have him running too is the score that they will need to beat and I believe Gentleman Anshan & Civil Disobedience are both potentially better horses on form in which the former has already proven to have decent enough level to win this at the weights today when winning over 20 furlongs at Southwell back in May 2011. The time since he has ran well below that ability over 3M at Ludlow and the last run back in November at Doncaster over 19 Furlongs, There is some Stamina doubts with the horse as he had failed to run anywhere near his best over 3 miles twice now and that recent run at Ludlow was under similar circumstances as today’s race and I have no reason to believe this 8yo by Anshan will complete 3 Miles well enough to come out on top. The Latter Civil Disobedience should very much take the beating in this if his jumping holds up as he was all set to score when falling at Warwick last time out in a race won by the average Lively Baron. However this pointer has proven in the past to be very accomplished over fences and has the ability and improvement in him to win a handicap such as this. All in all it’s quite a trappy affair so the top weighted unexposed pointers look to be the answer to this. The change back to Paul Maloney from Nick Schofield should help to assist his jumping despite the 0-2 record on the horse of today’s pilot but he is a lot more progressed horse over fences then he was over hurdles, the shape nature of the track should suit him as well and the standard of this class 3 is no stronger then the novice event he contested last time, So I expect him to give a bold bid in this handicap today.


Selection – Civil Disobedience 1pt win  @ 10-3 (general)


4.10 Stratford handicap hurdle class 3


J’Adhere & Tayarat are very closely matched on recent running in a handicap hurdle at Ludlow and have much in their favor to reproduce that kind of run in this handicap today and both should go well. The weights suggest J’Adhere should be able to come out on top out of those two and Tim Vaughan runner is taken to finish in front of his conqueror this time around. Against them both Aviso & Marcus Antonius are unexposed types who could prove to be better handicappers in time and shouldn’t be readily discounted, while Drumshambo brings decent handicapping form of his own into the mix. The first mentioned Aviso should like this track having ran well when winning at Warwick last time out under Nathan Adams, however he has the returning Lee Stephens to the saddle who won on him the time before as he bids to land the hat-rick in this better class of race, the only concern is the strength of that race last time out as it was a poor race but the way he did it was quite striking and he is potentially still well treated off this 9lbs higher mark. Marcus Antonius steps into handicapping company for the first time and115 isn’t a mark that can’t be won off I feel, On the level of form he has shown I do think he may be less well treated then Aviso, the course, ground and trip are no concerns for him either and the experience handling of Paul Maloney booked after Noel Fehily rode him to victory last time shouldn’t be seen as a major negative, even though it looks like a spare he has just picked up.


Selection – Aviso 1pt win @ 9-1 (SJ)

2.40 JLT Specialty Handicap Chase Grade 3 (class 1) 5yo+

Top Quaility handicap and one of the more competitive handicaps on day one and the Irish raider Magnanimity makes appeal to me on my ratings today as he returned too form last time out when finishing 4th to Prince De Beauchene at Fairyhouse just over 2 weeks ago in a Grade 2 chase in which two of the three who finished in front of him was recieving weight from Dessie Hughes runner. The run at last years festival in the Royal Sun Alliance chase hasn't worked out to be the strongest of races on the formbook but the 144 official rating he has for this looks fair given that if Time for Rupert who he finished in front of that day was in this race of this mark would be a single figure price bordering on favouritism. I feel the handicapper may have under assessed this runner based on his lexus run and Hennessy run in Ireland. He looks up against it on Lexus running with Noland here but he did run around 20lbs below his RSA run that day and recieves weight in this competitve heat today, the ground is perfect and the new headgear could just keep him enthussied to fight out this finish. Hold on Julio & Tullamore Dew I feel will be involved in the finish as well in this handicap with the Alan King runner the more likely as he continues too improve and looked a horse of some potential when winning at Sandown last time out off a 12lbs lower mark, the strength of that race is a little bit of a concern as the horse who followed him home was running over a trip short of his best, but it was abreathtaking performance and should be thereabouts.

Ratings top 5 - Magnanmity 160, Tullamore Dew 159, Hold on Julio 159, Zarrakfat 158, Ballie Arnai 158

Selection - Magnanmity 1pt e/w @ 14-1

Well thought out well chief.
Im on these 3.
JLT. 2.40 Hold On Julio....
               Zarrafakt....
               Fruity o rooney
JLT Chase winners fit the Cheltenham handicap chase stereotype perfectly, with the last twelve all being
aged 7-10, and all bar Bensalem last year carrying no more than 10-12 (all were in the handicap proper
though).
Proven stamina is unsurprisingly a prerequisite in these fiercely contested, truly run affairs, and all bar
two of the last ten winners had already won over three miles or further. Bensalem was an exception
again last year, having only been second (twice) at the trip. Interesting.

Enjoying your thread, well thought out and profitable. good luck.

3.20 Champion Hurdle Grade 1 (Class 1)4yo+

Finding it very hard to oppose the Fly in the feature race on day 1 of the festival as the 8yo appears to be better then ever before when he won last time and has improved on his form since winning this 12 months ago, he has a outstanding record over hurdles and is 100% for Ruby Walsh who has helped to produce him in his best form since becomming his regualr jockey, where ever the Fly goes Ruby Goes now and he should really win the Champion Hurdle again barring a accident. Obviously there are the odd improver in this race this year, but Binocular returned to his best last time out when beating Celestrial Halo with the minimum of fuss and that was against a rival who was in his own back yard and the way he did it was suggesting that he is back to his 2010 best which I have as inferior to Hurricane Fly win last year. I believe he will confirm x-mass hurdle form with Rock on Ruby who was unlucky that day, but Binocular wasnt as good as he usually is and maybe that track was more to the liking of Rock on Ruby who started the season in handicaps, in fact Binocular form often improves after x-mass and I expect him to come out on top again despite the likely improvement Rock on Ruby could show.

Zarakander Betfair Hurdle win has him in the mix here as he came through the pack to win, he may have not been totally wound up on his first run and this track paid home to his best win in his debut season over timber when he landed the Truimph Hurdle 12 months ago and the ground should be ideal for this progressive horse. I have him very closely matched with Rock on Ruby and can battle it out for the tricast and that would be a good effort with him being a likely winner in 12 months time where he is sure to have progressed further. Overturn will cut out the running and could be given the hurry up by Celestrial Halo who will no doubt be the pacemaker of the 4 of Paul Nichols runners in the feature race.

Ratings top 5 - Hurricane Fly 173, Binocular 170, Zarakander 169, Rock on ruby 169, Overturn 165

Selection - Hurricane Fly 3pt win @ 10-11

Best of luck seeyouthen

Cheers. Im with you on the fly. no bet yet, as i may go for rock on ruby to place. but will do one or the other.

1.50 Southwell class 4 6F Handicap

There is plenty of pace on in this sprint handicap with several confirmed pace setters and that could well play into the hands of Hatta Stream who has the ability to win of this mark of 77 which is 1lb lower then his highest winning mark and on recent pollytrack efforts he looks to retain his ability. The change to fibresand looks likely to suit with the sire having a decent % of offsprings that have won on this surface and the change of jockey to Simon Pearce for the first time in quite a while is eye catching as he has ridden the horse to two victories in the past and he could well go well with th pace to aim at. however in a tight looking handicap Close to the edge is likely to have the run of the race as well with plenty of pace around her draw and is at least proven under the conditions, she has tried 5, 6 & 7 furlongs on her last 3 tries and her best effort out of those 3 was under David Probert over 6 Furlongs, so with Shane Kelly booked for the ride today as he rode on the two other occassions maybe she has the right trip under her preferred jockey today. At 10-1 she looks a little overpriced and I think can overcome the inferior rating I have her down under, as she comes out 4th best, But Joe Le Taxi I think wont have the ideal run of the race but with t low weight and inform trainer I expect him to run his race here.

Ratings - Top 5 - Joe Le Taxi 96, Hatta Stream 96, Suddenly Susan 95, Close to the edge 94, Caldercruix 94.

Selection - Close to the Edge 1pt e/w @ 10-1 (365)

Thought was going to collect big time. happy with the place though. small profit on race.

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase Grade 1 (Class1)

Sizing Europe seems to be as good as ever and with no real pacemaker in this graded affair he could easily quicken nicely of a moderate pace in the firing line to land this yet again. The horse is now 10yo and as good as ever and has already slammed Big Zeb & Kauto Stone this season and on a track with ground in his favour he is as good as ever and likely to take all the beating and the odds reflect that. I have him around 8lbs clear of his nearest rival in this race and with hindsight and the way the race is likely to pan out he is a better odds on shot then Hurricane Fly who was beaten on day one, but I dont really like odds on shots in such competitive championship races.

Finan's Rainbow is his closest rival and looks a much better 5-1 shot then Big Zeb in my view who was put in his place by Sizing Europe. The Nicky Henderson runner should also be suited to the way the race will be panned out as he will be suited to being up in the firing line and in a position to kick with that cruising speed of his coming into play, whether or not he has more improvement in him then I think he has is to be seen as I have him calculated as just falling short of Sizng Europe but at 5-1 he is my each-way shot in the feature race.

Rated - Sizing Europe 173, Finan's Rainbow 165, Big Zeb 161, Kauto Stone 158, Gauvain 155, Wishfall Thinking 151, Realt Dubh 147

Selection - Finan's Rainbow 1pt e/w @ 5-1 (Woral)

4.00 Woral Cup Handicap Hurdle Grade 3

As always one of the most trapiest handicaps of the meeting with a few unexposed types in and this year we have the added bonus of dark horses amongst the field. BalGarry has to prove his stamina today but the way he ran on when driven after cutting out a brisk gallop suggest that he will improve further for this trip and David Pipe has a very strong hand in this handicap and has done well in handicap hurdles all season so this unexposed import is very much likely to be hard to beat and could well make a further mockery of the handicapper with easy win with much in hand as he onlycarries a penalty for his easy win last time out and would have won the imperial cup given how easily he beat Nampour who ran with much credit in that handicap to suggest the form of Balgarry is something quite decent.

This could well be a race for 2nd with the next 7 all seperated by 3lbs on my calculations and they are headed by the novice Cape Dutch who ran with much credit at this track back in Septemeber over a trip maybe short of his best, this more emphasis on stamina may well suit him and the hope is that his ridden more up with the pace as it paid to be around the first 3rd in the races with little coming from behind even though alfie Sherrin came from far back to land a 3M chase today. Featherbed land is another one who should be thereabouts back over this trip after not staying in graded company over 3M last time out, he is reuinted with James Best and will have a fair racing weight to run off and he comes out just in front of Act of Kalanisi who finished a respectable 3rd in the lanzrote. Third Intention, Final Approach, Dare me and Star of angels is next on the list with the last mentioned placed in this race in 2009 and looked as good as old when winning at Wincanton last time, but for the winner I will give his stable mate ago.

Rated - Balgarry 171, Cape dutch 159, Featherbed Lane 158, Act Of Kalansi 157, Dare Me 156, Star of angels 156, Third Intention 156, Final Approach 156.

Selection - Balgarry   1pt e/w @ 7-1 (General)

Good luck with Balgarry WC, Robsters put it up as well!

2.05 Pertemps Final Handicap

At a very big price I quite fancy the chances of Nigel Twiston-Davies Petitflour whose form figures maybe a little hit and miss but looks very much overpriced with the return to these conditions and looks laid out for this handicap today. William Twiston_Davies comes in for the ridewith old brother Sam taking the ride on stablemate Kayf Armis who was well held of levels with Restless Harry Latest. PetitFour use to be involved in those kind of races and it was oly back at the Hennessy meeting when he went well behind Big Bucks at Newbury in which he helped force the issue before fading towards the end of the race, with the pace angle at Cheltenham being a strong pointer in the racing this week and Buena Vista likely to give a bold sighter from the front maybe this time to set the race up for Our Father, I feel Petitfour can track the leader and get first run here today.

The horse has been dropped a further 2lbs in the handicap for a prep run at Warwick in which he lumped top weight around under Sam Twiston-Davies and just weakened out of it before the home run in, Withe the 7lbs claim he carries just 145lbs today whch will see him a stone better off at the weights with thehillofuinsch & 10lbs with Barwell Bridge. The large field a bonus for this 10yo and he has solid course form to his name and with improving conditions to his liking I feel his chance is better then the large prices on offer.

Selection - PetitFour 1pt e/w @ 50-1 (SJ) 59-1 win & 9-1place on betfair

2.40 Ryanair Chase Grade 1 21F

Most probably the most competitive grade 1 race of the entire festival with no less then 9 grade 1 winners involved in the race and Albertas Run will be looking to land thi race for the 3rd time today. However even though the ground is likley to be very much in his favor once again he is a year older and in a 3 runner affair in which we last saw him, he made vry heavy work of seeing off Pure Faith as his main rival Master Minded ran well below what he is capable off, so maybe that race isnt the best to judge him on. I feel his win over Kalahari king 12 months ago will see its form turned on its head this time around with not the 2nd but the 3rd Rubi Light looking like a improved opponent as he has reached 7yo now, the latest win in ireland was impressive and he is certainly likely to go well with a strong pace to give him a lead with thanks to little josh.

Riverside Theatre is another who comes here in good form having beaten Medermt in the VC chase latest and if he want such a progressive horse right handed I would most probably take him to confirm the form, but im not sure if this track pays to his strength and it will be no surprise to see Medermit around this track reverse the form. Medermit was favourite for last year's Arkle in which he was beaten by Captain Chris having no be able to muster the pace to land a blow, however the two horses have had contrasting 12 months and Medermit ran well at this track when a close 2nd in a handicap of 157. he has once again improved along comparison with the Alan King Yard and comes out on top on my ratings to land this today. Somersby is another who has a chance and was joint 2nd with Riverside Theatre as he is another who is better at Ascot. I do feel if this was ran at Ascot then both Somersby and Riverside Theatre would fight out the finish, but as its at cheltenham I do believe Medermit has the engine to reverse the form and at 8-1 is my bet for this.

Selection - Medermit 1pt e/w @ 8-1 (SJ)

3.20 Cheltenham  - World Hurdle Grade 1


The feature race on day 3 of the festival and Paul Nichols will be looking to land yet another feature race with the champion stayer Big Bucks who has seen off all before him and is a short price to do so yet again today, however Nicky Henderson who has had a festival to remember so far will be looking to land the 2nd feature race of the week after finian’s Rainbow victory yesterday in the champion chase. The horse has yet to run over 3M but given the way he has gone so far this season he looks to get strong in his races and has genuine turn of foot that could worry big bucks who just gallops them into the ground, until the last race that Big bucks ran I was convinced he was on his way down from his lofty perch and could be beaten this year, however the last run he put together at this track was as good as I’ve seen him and he looked back to his best after maybe looking a little bit suspect before hand, that day he had Dynaste beaten in 2nd as the Pipe yard adopted new tactics to try and reverse the form and it didn’t quite pay off, what actually happened was that Big Bucks got a even better response that day and won with a bit in hand, last year Big Bucks only won by a few lengths after Ruby Dropped his whip but he was expected to win that day with ease, I feel that the inclusion of Oscar Whisky into the mix may just give Big Bucks more to think about as he has a rival in the race who has as much class as him and his 4 performances so far over 20F have been all quite fetching. If Oscar Whisky doesn’t beat him today I feel at Aintree it will be the case as I see him the one to lower big bucks colors. Dynaste I feel is the e/w horse in the race.


Selection – Oscar Whisky 1pt win @ 9-2 (365)

4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap (Grade 3) 21F


Race that a big price usually springs a surprise in and this year’s it looks as open as any. Crack Away Jack looks to have a good chance given how he has been laid out for this race by Champion Trainer Paul Nichols and was staying on well when making a mistake at a vital moment over 16F at this track. The step up in trip should see him go well and he is a few pounds better then that form he showed and is respected. However at a big price I like two in this handicap and the first one is Tartak for his new handler Tim Vaughan who I feel is worth a cheeky punt on at a massive 66-1. This horse is classy on his day and has the ground perfect today underfoot to carry the large weight burden on his shoulders. The booking of Richard Johnson should be seen as a positive as maybe a forceful ride is what the horse needs, he has bags of ability and the change of stable may just do the trick and get him to return to form here in which he would be well handicapped given he was running in the ryanair just 12 months ago and wasn’t disgraced behind master minded at Aintree the following race, 66-1 price is very big for a horse that if he was to perform would not be the most shocked winner of this handicap.


The other horse is Gilbarry for Jonjo O’Neil as he was quite a smart horse when landing a grade 2 novice event at Ayr and now finds himself running of 137 in handicaps after showing very little throughout the season, however he has often shown his best form during the spring and on ground such as this and has a touch of class about him, he also should adopt a more positive running style today given how the ground has raced so far at this festival, he is a horse that is best when allowed to run freely and off this mark they hopefully will allow him more rein to run free and has a chance I feel.


Selection – Tartak 1pt e/w @ 66-1 (VC) & Gilbarry 1pt e/w @ 33-1 (365)

3 Races at cheltenham and hopefully a chance to turn around the poor form.

2.05 County Hurdle Grade 3 handicap

As per usual a race that is as tough as they come and one that could even see Dee ee Willias bounce back to form as on his old form from way back in April 2010 he would hve to be considered as a bet but he showed very little on his return to suggest it was anytime near in the offering. The other rank outsider hell's bay has got ability but has been seen over fences in which he has lost his way and this is most probably a spin around to get some form back in but on his best chase form he would be well treated over hurdles.

The likes of StarLuck and Clerk's Choice are likely to go well with solid graded form to their names and the former returned against binocular last time at Wincanton and was given a tender ride, while the latter was pulled out Fontwell National Spirit hurdle last time and has been kept fresh with this in mind. Novice hurdle ifyouletmefinish looks the best of those stepping into handicap company today and is respected, Whilie the Irish raiders Dirar & Sailors Warm are likely to run their usual race and hope to bring some joy to the irish who have had a terriable festival in term of winners so far. However the two I like against the field are firstly the well fancied RAYA STAR who ran with much credit in the betfair hurdle behind the champion hurdler fast dinisher Zarakander and looks a tough customer that is needed for these types of races and Paul Nichols Edgardo Sol who can be forgiven the last run at Taunton as the stable was under cloud and should give a much better account of himself here today. The son of kapgarde often runs well at this track and the yard often do well in this event. The run behind Bally legend here in december was a decent performance on the book and he has a ideal low racing weight once the claimmer 7lbs is taken of the back of the horse and at a bst priced 33-1 he has a decent chance I feel.

Selections - Raya Star 1pt win @ 11-1 (general) & Edgardo Sol 1pt win @ 33-1 (General)

3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup Grade 1

The blue ribbon event of the meeting and one that sees one again the match up of kauto Star versus Long Run who will be looking to reverse the form this time around after Kauto Star landed the betfair chase and the King George this season and Long Run finished 2nd, the confidence boosting win at newbury has him covering Burton port who was having his first run for over a year and was in the recipet of weight that day as Long Run had to carry his penalty for winning this race last year. I Feel with the problematic prep of Kauto star, coupled in with the fact he isnt as good around cheltenham as he is at kempton, it should be Long Run reversing the form in a race that really has thse two as the standout two.

Burton Port could be the improver but I feel he needs quite a bit of improvement to land this event today and maybe the 8yo will be better in 12 months time as Long Run starts to regress as 8yo french bred that can be quite often the case with these types that peak at a young age. What A friend is likely to go well today under Daryl Jacob and can take the 3rd spot just ahead of Burton port who beaten him last time at newbury but once again I felt What a friend was a little bit lacklustered in the finish and will have come on for that run. Weird Al, Synchonised, Midnight Chase and time for rupert are the next best in that order.

Selection - Long Run 3pt win @ 2-1

5.15 Grand Annual Grade 3 Handicap Chase

Nicky Henderson has had a festival to remember and to win this handicap at the end of the meeting if he has landed the cheltenham gold cup for the 2nd season would be a dream come true for him and he has set out his stool to win this today with 6 runners in the field and his Tanks for that has solid handicapping form around here that would put him right in the mixing pot under Bary Gerghaty for this and the 9yo is lightly raced enough to record a personal best and land this, however his stable mate Erdicate really catches the eye in this handicap as this novice on hurdles form has a very solid chance as he has a bit of pace about him that would stand him in good stead on this quick spring ground, David bass takes the ride today and he gets in nearing the bottom of the weights which counts for a lot in a handicap as fast and furious as this one.

Astracad won well here in a small field event and has been laid out for this race by the owners who won this a few years back and he is lightly raced to do himself justice and looks to be the best handicapped horse in the race with much in his favor. Ultimate is consistent and won the other day at Doncaster in which a few fences were bypassed due tolow sunset and he is in form and should run a honest race at a bigger price, whilie Nina Carberry has a chance on Idarah who starts to come to hand around this time of the year. Oiuseu Du Nuit should run his usual race around here and has place claims, whilie Free World once with Paul Nichols has some very decent form in the book if you look far enough back to have a say but that is quite unlikley. Kumbeshwar, king Edmund & Renard all have ran well this season and could run a respectable race, however I will give Eradicate & Astracad a go in this handicap.

Selection - Astracad 1pt win @ 10-1 (General) & Erdicate 1pt win @ 14-1 (General)

happy gold cup day chief - think midnight might sneek a place and if the race falls apart as it dose - could even win it,obviously long run will probably hose up,but if outsiders are every going to win it ,this years seems a weak one.big price worth an e.w

gl

Good Luck Well Chief just dodging in to see how your fairing...I like Astracad myself, but will just be watching the GC, I do think with the current form of the stable Long Run is the one they all have to beat, and don't necessarily think it will be the duel everyone is expecting.

given up or taking a break ?

2.40 Newbury

Dom D’Orgeval – Course regular in his twilight years but has the ability to go well at this level having fallen to his winning mark over fences of 119. On his day is very talented and is well in on his best hurdling form which he has shown to that level over fences in his career even though he has often found one too good, a stiffer test of stamina in terms of trips maybe would have been more to his liking, but the spring ground and drop too this level in which he is 2 wins & 3 placed efforts from 8 running’s is good enough to believe he is overpriced for this even with the doubts over recent form.

1pt @ 33-1

Sound Stage – 2 recent runs at Sandown has suggested that he is ready to strike again after really catching the eye last time out and James Best has ridden him well on both those occasions. The drying spring ground is ideal for this horse who has become a bit hard to win with as he has only 2 wins to his name at 9yo, however his form at Newbury suggest he is likely to build on the recent encouraging signs and there has been money for him this morning as I got some 6-1 last night.

1pt @ 6-1

4.25 Newbury

Gibb River – Nicky Henderson can continue his recent flux of winners with Gibb River who can be forgiven his no show at Ascot last time. The better conditions underfoot should also suit this gelding who has had time off to freshen up in which he does need time between his racing, the lack of real competitive in this handicap should suit him and he has a turn of foot that should see off those that are more like stayer’s such as stable mate Petit Robin, Topolski and Kandari who all would prefer a stiffer test in my view.

1pt win @ 9-2

Tony Star – Another that has a good chance today is Philip Hobbs Tony Star who hasn’t been seen since flopping at Cheltenham in which he didn’t give his true running, the 100+ day absence from the course could well have done him some good and he looks visibly handicapped in my view to give a good account of himself. The run behind Dinuer at Wincanton the time before isn’t terrible and he should be well suited to this small field run affair today. The last time he ran at this track he ran into a horse well below his actual mark in Empire Levant, This time around he looks to have found himself a fair test in terms of opponents and can take advantage if Gibb River was too under perform.

1pt win @ 12-1

4.10 Lingfield

Haadeeth – Won a few weeks back when the money was down over course and distance and that was quite a catching performance I felt. Today paired with the same jockey up top I feel he can go well once again. The last run wasn’t his true running, but he should get his favored inside rail from draw box 1 and go close off a mark 3lbs higher than his highest all weather winning mark. The yard is going well at the moment and in a trappy affair he should run well again and has every chance of confirming running with Hatta Stream I feel.

1pt win @ 8-1

Kyalladdie – Jamie Spencer gets on well with this gelding that is talented on his day and maybe better then all these in the race today. Hopefully he will be putting his best foot forward with a liking for polly track. His form around Lingfield isn’t sparkling in terms of wins at the track, but he has run with credit at this venue in the past. The sharp six should be right up his street and Jamie Spencer should negotiate the wide draw I feel to give him every chance, he was just my pick over Baby Strange as one of the selections.

1pt win @ 5-1

Back from a break after cheltenham

Current p/l +15.76pts

Got to be a mistake with a win only on Dommy ?
Few E/W would have kept you ticking over WC
Banging on the door again

Yeah Madhatters Im loving a close 2nd at the moment.

3.50 Bangor

Railway Dillion 138
French Ties 137
Wake Board 136
Restern D'Armour 136
Premier Sagas 135
Calistio Moon 129

Railway Dilion at 5-1 looks the play as he looks a progressive type who will apperciate the drop back in trip today with 22 Furlongs last time out stretching his stamina, the quicker conditions couldowever be a problem for the McCain yard who are in good form at the moment. French Ties is another who looks handicapped to go well today based on the win last time at Newbury and has more in his favour, However Wake Board was subject of a lot of support last time out and should be more suited to the trip today and has been supported over night, He had conditions to suit and a big run under Daryl Jacob is expected.



Selection - French Ties 1pt @ 5/1 & Wake Board 1pt @ 3/1

3.30 Kelso

Freddie Brown 139
Time out 133
Indian Groom 132
Shadrack 130
Mr Syntax 130
Captain Paulie 126
Bene Lad 135

Freddie Brown is clear choice inthis small field handicap and has quite a bit in his favor over his rivals today and should take all the beating, the next best is Time out who has progressed well so far this season but the weight he has to concede to Freddie Brown is quite significant and he can follow the clear choice home I feel.

Selection - Freddie Brown 2pt win @ 5/2

3.40 Newbury

Mon Parrin 161
Pearlysteps 159
Ouzbeck 158
Ikordu Road 156
Swimcombe Rock 155
On Burrowed Wings 152
Quotico Du Poyens 152
Benny be Good 149
Faasel 146
Ethopia 141

Mon Parrin has the class to win this on his way to Aintree and should take all the beating, however Pearlysteps has the ability to land one of these and his two runs at haydock suggest he shouldn't be discounnted lightly, however his stable seem to be struggling for form at the moment and both those runs were on testing gruelling conditions at Haydock so maybe he could be below his best. Ikordu Road has a lot in his favor and comes here of the back of a good win at doncaster and should go well again here with the track likely to play to his strengths. Ouzbeck has everything to run upto form today and shaped with promised behind Maurfo jere last time at 7/1 he is taken to find the 3lbs needed to beat the favourite.

Selection - Ouzbeck 1pt e/w @ 7-1

3.25 Lingfield

Soorah - 126
Black Spirit - 126
Myplacelater - 122
Cai Shen - 121
Circumvent - 119
Junoob - 116
Suits Me - 116
Loyalty - 115
Lyssio - 114
Emerald Wilderness - 112

Sooraah needs to prove she stays the trip but this is quite a sharp 10 furlongs so there is every chance that she will stay the trip, whether she will stay it well enough is to be seen bu with Ryan Moore booked for the ride she could well be hard to beat if she does, however Black Spirit has proven stamina and if he acts on polly track he will be a major player in this and at 10/1 to find out it looks worth a play. The mare myplacelater starts for new stable and is interesting as she could improve for the change of handling now she is with a top yard of Richard Fahey he does well with Mares in the past. Cai Shen for the Richard Hannon yard should go well n a open event with plenty of questons to be answered and my two against the field are black Spirit & myplacelater who both have the stamina and ability to win this race.

Selection - Black Spirit 1pt win @ 10/1 & Myplacelater 1pt win @ 11/1

Best of luck today Well Chief.

You've hit the bar a few times lately.

Got one over the line WC

3.55 Wincanton Class 3 handicap Hurdle

A 130+ Performance is required to land this handicap hurdle today and six of the runners are able to record a effort of that or better, so its quite a competitive affair today and with 3 places up for grabs maybe the best bet is to go each-way or dutch two runners.

Perpetually - Has two quailifing runs and could well be better then his current mark as he is unexposed with only 3 runs over hurdles for a six year old so there could be more to come from the horse. The lesser of his two runs which would have him as winning this was over 16 furlongs at Haydock under similiar ground conditions as today and the only factor that was the same that day was the ground, but he did travel like he was by far the best horse in the race before idling in front over the last in which he held on to make it two from two over hurdles, the next run was much better even though he didnt win as he ran with credit over 21F at Cheltenham with ground maybe not as quick as he liked and his stamina dropped out over the last furlong, that effort was by far the form pick in this race and the drop back a furlong suggest coupled with quicker ground and a easier test of stamina on a flatter galloping track should see him go well and it will be disspointing if he doesnt at least place in this today.

Minella Special - Has ran twice here to a level that would have him figuring in this handicap today if he was to prove to be s good over the further trip today as they were over 16 furlongs in more testing conditions, on breeding this trip and ground should prove sufficent for the horse and he should run up to form, the concern has to be the 3 runs over this trip have been average to say the least as they have come on better ground and unless his new trainer has found the key to the horse he is passed over for a stronger staying type.

Themilanhorse - Has one runs to his credit that has him a a likely winner of this race and once again with those who have passed its the most recent of runs suggesting that he is improving and could go well in this handicap today after the Ludlow race he won had a few nice types in behind and he was ridden out to win that a tad easily and the 5lbs rise should not be a problem to overcome as he is improving. There is a lot of factors similiar to this race as to the one he won and the shorter trip in comparison to the win at Ludow shouldnt be a problem and everything is in place for a big run.

Santera - Comes into this handicap as a horse who has lost her way slightly but is very talented, her performance at kempton behind Caroles Legacy is superb form in the context of this handicap and that was over a longer trip, she has never really ran to that level since or before and she peaked there, she also has good form when winning here over 22F on rattling ground the time before and that is another performance that would have her involved in this handicap at the weights as well so at a double figure price she has claims, the most recent run at sandown suggested a return to form is on the cards as that was the best run since 2010 and she has has claims in this, but she may just find one or two just too quick in the finishing kick and her best hope over this trip and this level is if they make it a strong staying test. She has each-way claims.

J'Adhere - The run back two runs where he finished behind a 100-1 shot was his pick of form and he just gets in as recording a effort capable of winning this event, there however needs to find out that he performs as goos over this further trip as the 16 furlongs he won over and there has been some signs that the further trip will suit him as he won over 20 furlongs but the opposition was below this level so maybe a minor role is best bet for him.

Revani - Handicap debutant is interesting, Te latest run over 20 furlongs was a let down in soft ground behind the useful cotton mill who was running well at cheltenham before refusing at a hurdle and the run prior to that Revani recorded a fair effort in which he wasnt a factor for the race but stayed on readily that day over 16 furlongs behind the useful broad back bob, cinders and ashes and Ted Spread and that was his only attempt on better racing ground which he encounters today, he should come on from those novice events now he takes on handicap company in which he has a fairly judged mark by the handicapper and the Nick Williams yard are starting to take shape and a winner could well be on the cards for him today. On breeding he is worth another crack at this trip with the better ground and trainer does well at this track.

Verdict - Open race in which the top weighted Perpetually is likely to go well with the easier stamina test and no surprise to see him favourite for this handicap today, themilanhorse deserves respect and is a close 2nd in the market and while both have a decent chance in this race, the biggest fly in the otiment is the lightly weighted and raced Revani who is best priced 4-1 and a bet to nothing even though he has prove he stays which the suggestion is he will. J'Adhere has unexposed types against him, while Sandera is the more classy rival of the two and has stamina on her side and could be the each-way play for those who are prepared to take the chance that this will turn into a true run affair.My selection is Revani on handicap debut each-way.

Selection - REVANI 1pt e/w @ 4-1

Best of luck all

4.30 Towcester Handicap Hurdle class 4

Required performance to win this handicap is 122+ I feel and just five of today’s runners are capable of achieving that rating to win this handicap in which General Ting whose form has come over a mile shorter is a non-runner so that just leaves four qualifiers to go through in what is now a hard 8 race.


Chac du Cadron – Has 3 qualifying runs already in his short career to take this and no surprise to see him at the head of the market with the likely hood that there is more to come, each of the runs have come with many factors relating to today’s race and all have been within the circumference of the stamina needed to win under today’s conditions. The best of those runs was of course the most latest in which he finished 3rd in a competitive affair at Doncaster behind Allthekinghorses and Corkage who has since franked the form of that race. The way he stayed that day suggest that the change to this more challenging of courses. The first two of his runs was under more testing conditions at Uttoexter and Southwell which his stamina came into play under those conditions in easier fields then his ability to win and the stronger field coupled with better conditions suggested last time that he would once again run well, he will need this more tougher test of stamina in a muddling affair to run up to his best and he is likely to take all the besting with very little against him.


Counting House – Formally very decent but hard to know just what of that ability is still retained as he has been very hit and miss since returning from a absence. The run at Newbury last spring however has him as qualifying as a potential winner in this handicap and he is the biggest danger to the favorite on ability. The run at Newbury was a returning run in which Jason Maguire rode him to victory and the same jockey appears on top today at a track he has a good strike rate on. The last run at Cheltenham was in a much better race then this and he has been given time since to overcome that run in which he never factored in and was disappointing. His record fresh is respectable while the yard has a good record in handicap hurdles at this track and the ground shouldn’t be a problem for the horse having won on spring ground in the past and handled going also with firm in the description.


Father Probus – has come into form at the right time and his last run gives him a chance in this handicap under the eye catching booking of Timmy Murphy. A more proven type then the favorite it’s hard seeing him have enough improvement to beat the favorite in this handicap today and he will be hoping that Timmy can give him a tactical ride to victory. The ground does suit and the trip shouldn’t be a problem. The run at Taunton last time he finished in front of Teenage Kicks under Paddy Brennen and the reuniting with Timmy Murphy today could well confirm that form as the time before he won under Timmy guidance. The better ground is preference to this horse and if his stamina lasts out on this stiffer track he may just confirm the form of latest run at Taunton.


Teenage Kicks – has actually two runs that show he has the ability to win at this level and the first one of those was over two furlongs shorter then this around Fontwell in a novice hurdle on good ground and he is most probably best judged on the latter performance in which he won at Worcester over 3M on rattling ground, he is getting ready to get some prize money throughout the summer months again and comes here of the back of a fair effort at Taunton behind Father Probus, That suggested to me that he is coming to hand and can once again go well in handicap company today, He is very closely matched with Father Probus on latest running and even though he is 3lbs better off at the weights he could struggle to reverse it here, even though he has won on his only start at this track sometime ago.


Verdict – The two top weighted horse are very much likely to take the beating in this handicap with Chac Du Cadron clearly going the right way, however Counting House looks to be very much laid out for this handicap today with tougher targets lying in wait for the horse given past tasks set for the horse and this being a class race that they returned to the winners enclosure with under Jason Maguire last time. Of his 13 runs, 11 have been in better class races then this and his record right handed reads as one win and two placed efforts from five runs, Granted he is now 9yo and maybe his best hurdling days are behind him but he has the class to shake up the strong fav and with very little strength or depth in the race he is the each-way alternative at 4-1 as a bet to nothing. Teenage kicks and Father Probus can fight out the tri-cast.

Selection – Counting House 2pt e/w @ 4-1

Counting House is now 3-1 general, sorry I didnt get it up earlier been having right problems with internet, some have got even bigger then 4-1 on this turning into a gamble.

4.30 Southwell 14F class 3 Handicap
The race today the winner should be able to run to a ability of above 95 and there are six horses in this handicap that have produced a performance good enough to win this handicap, however most of them over further or shorter then today's trip.

The quailifiers are as follows :-

Boss's Destination - Is very well handicapped on turf form for his fibresand debut and the Alan Swimbank yard are currently in good form at the moment so there is everychance that he will be fit to run his race today despite his 0-3 record when fresh, however his best perfrmances have come over 2M in heavy ground at Thirsk and 2M at York in a competitive affair behind bow to no One. The run at Ayr behind Taikoo can be forgiven as that was not his running, betteris expected and on breeding the fibresand should be to his liking.

Captain Bellamy - Unlike Boss's Destintion has very little to prove as he seeks his fifth win on Fibresand and comes here fit and well from a winter of success on this surface. The most recent win was a personal best under Jimmy Fortune and that was over 2M around here, the drop back in trip shouldnt be a problem as he is often placed just off the pace so if he is good enough he should have a chance to win this. However this is much tougher then he has been contesting and even though he recieves weight alround he does need to find more improvement which he is entitled too do so. Robert Winston is the latest jockey to be paired with this horse and he has a good record with the trainer so there is hope that he can bring up the hatrick and a fifth straight win on this track.

Marsh Warbler - Classy hurdler on his day and wasnt beaten that far by Celestrial Halo over hurdles earlier in the season so he comes back to the level in good form despite being outclassed at Kelso latest behind Simonsig. He has won on this surface when seen in october and was a comfortable winner that day, the further trip should play to his strengths and Brian Elison has a strong record at Southwell with a 20% record in all age handicaps. Big Chance on the book I feel despite the 7lbs rise in the weights.

Bedouin Bay - Quite a hard horse to figure out as he has form in the book that would suggest that he is more then capble at this level, however he is quite hard to win with a little one paced. He does stay this trip despite shaping well over 12 furlongs, but he wasnt beaen that far over 14 furlongs behind Adimirable Duque at Wolverhampton who he meets on better terms this time around, however he was easily beaten last time over 12F against the same rival and Im struggling to see him reversing the finishing places.

Admirable Duque - looking to make it 3-3 at this venue and the last win was quite catching how he has progressed on this surface beating a useful yard stick who he meets again today and should confirm the form again, the change in jockey is positive one as young Egan is well worth his 7lbs claim and this horse can only lose on merrit today with him in the saddle.

Takioo - Finished behind Benioun Bay at this track over 2M in a bumper latest and has to concede weight to that rival over a shorter trip today, he is a stayer through out and will be relying on a stronger pace as his best performace came at Ayr over 17F in the mud in which he had boss's Destination tailed off in behind, if this turns into a stout staying event he will have a good chance, but the likely hood is he will be outpaced when they kick for home off the turn for home. Course specialist but they have come at a lower level around here, this is tougher.

Verdict - Plenty of decent types in this handicap today and Boss's Destination at the weights could have a big say if fit and ready to go but there is likely to be better chances when up in trip on this surface before returning to turf. Admirable Duque is likely to go close in this handicap and should be thereabouts despite the 7lbs rise in the weights. Bedouin Bay and Captain Bellamy also have claims, but for me the winner is likely to be Marsh Warbler who is a grade 1 hurdle winner who won on his last start at this track in decent style and will apperciate this tougher test of stamina.

Selection - Marsh Warbler 2pt e/w @ 9/2 VC   

Best of luck all

8.15 Kempton - Street Power 1pt win @ 9-2 (billy's & PP)

The 3rd to Dandy Nichols Thunderball off a mark of 82 has him well in at the weights for this all weather handicap as that rival has gone on since to win again. Since that run Last March Street Power has been kept to the all weather in which he dropped 10lbs in the handicap in which he then came with a sustained run down the outside over course and distance to win going away in a class 5 handicap and showed a return to form. His form in the first half of the year outweighs his form latter on in the year and the quick turnout for a horse quite lightly raced in recent years suggest there is still more to come from the horse who is 6lbs higher but still 10lbs lower then his highest all weather winning mark. A bold show is predicted again here tonight and even though there is a unexposed Hamden horse looking to bring up the hatrick and a unexposed horse from he Gosdon yard, I feel Street Power can build on last weeks win and go in again.

Neat layout WC, but little punctuation ...?

4.30 FFOS LASS Class 3 handicap Hurdle - Mountianous @ 7-1 Boils

Nigel twiston-Davies Gelding by Milan catches the eye for this handicap hurdle today as he is a regular atthis track having had five runs under rules and four have come at this track and he has progressed nicely at this venue through out the winter and the likely hood is that there is more to come from the horse who was a winner over 2M here and then followed it up well when doing it the hard way and making all in heavy conditions to beat Rimini here back in Jan of this year and the form of the race he won has a patch look to it but you can only beat what you are up against and he did it nicely enough.

The stable have found their feet again and his one run away from this track at Ascot was a hot race in which Smad Place who ran well off top weight went well in the world hurdle at Cheltenham just 2 weeks ago and the form of that race is sure to stack up well with several runners from that handicap running well at Cheltenham next time out against some smart and inform rivals. This return to his home track should suit him massivly and the quicker ground being a unproven quantity just means the price is bigger then you would have expected for a horse with a unexposed solid profile against quite a few exposed types. He is well worth another crack at it today and he makes appeal at the price for me to turn my poor form around.

4.50 Newcastle Class 3 handicap Chase - Beneficial Reform 5/2 VC Billys

Beneficial Reform picked up a easy novice event latest at Doncaster a track in which he does his best running at in his short career, however the return to handicap company with that win under his belt means that he is now 18lbs higher in the handicap then when he was last successful in handicap company at Doncaster back in November last year. Since that handicap win he jumped many ragged at Doncaster over a extended trip of 26 Furlongs in which he was fighting all the way to the line but was beaten by a Hennessy Gold Cup runner up Air Force One that day who refound his form and was subject of much support, this stiffer test of a track over 3M based on that form shouldnt be a problem for the horse seeing out the trip once again in a small field.

The run at Kelso he fell far too early to give any running and he regained the lead last time out to gain a confidence boosting novice win in which the runner up cant really be judged on his run in the midlands national which he never jumped and travelled in as he was held up under restraint to get te trip. Beneficial Reform is going the right way and I feel he can just get the better of Fabalu of Donald McCain. Mr Crystal has claims from the foot of the weights if he stays the trip.

Will Have a 1pt Double on the pair as well.

Best of luck all

3.15 Doncaster - Lincoln (Heritage Handicap)

Races quailifed for finding the winner

16th April 2011 - Newbury

1st Light from Mars
2nd Pintura
3rd Lowther
6th Brae Hill

This victory for Light from Mars was recorded when with Dandy Nichols and he now finds himself running for yet another handicap mastero John Quinn who has saddled winners in this race in the past and Light from Mars held on all out to win this day from Pintura who is owned by the same owner and Light from Mars finds himself better off at the weights today which suggest with a straight mile very much in his favor he has the chance to confirm the placing under similiar conditions. Lowther finds himself 1lb better in at the weights today with Light from Mars for 1/2L defeat this day and the same applies to Brae Hill who continues the strong hand in today's handicap for the owner. The more recent runs for both Lowther & Light from mars suggest that Light from mars is more likely to find his best form then the former who is having his first run since tailing of behind African Story in Meydan. Pintura has a eye catching jockey booking in Jimmy Fortune based on this meeting in whch he had laura Pike and a 5lbs claim and Jimmy could well bridge the weight reciept and on the owner colours looks the first choice, however for me Light from Mars is still capable and has slipped to attractive mark of 95 for this and he is best caught early in the season.

6th May 2011 Chester

2nd Pintura
3rd Lowther

Pintura just failed on these sharper 8 furlong and was being caught by Lowther who hung left on the tght turn and maybe was the better horse out of the two. the 9lbs Lowther was conceeding this day didnt really come into play as the tight track does help weight carrying performances in comparison to the stiffer and more galloping track, howver for today's match up Lowther if returning to form should very much benefit for the change in weights despite the apparent improvement Pintura had shown throughout the season as a 4yo and while there is a angle to suggest that he can conceed the weight today to Lowther I feel if Dandy Nichols can get Lowther back into form then he has a very good chance today but he has got to trap much better then he has so far in Meydan as he continues his bad form from the Alan Bailey yard.

2nd April - Doncaster

2nd Brae Hill
7th Lowther
8th Light From Mars

Last years run had Brae Hill coming out on top of those who reappear in this race and Brae Hill finds himself worse of at the weights based on this run. However Light From Mars can be forgiven as he finished 3rd of 11 on quite possiablly the slower side of the draw, while Lowther didnt have a clear run at a vital time and was always battling to make up the ground, it is also worth noting that this run wouldnt have come in either of these two top 4 runs in the last 12 months which suggest to me that both can be forgiven the defeat to the Fahey runner who has to overcome a 100+ day absence like he did last year to be placed so should be ready once again to go at the first time of asking, he does have course form as one of his best efforts and could well confirm these placings, but Light from Mars who was having his first outing last season and is at his best once race fit (one win fresh at lower level) I feel can reverse this run.


Sandown 2nd July

2nd Start Right
6th Man of Action
16th Light from Mars

The godolphin pair lined up in this handicap in which Start Right whilst in trainning with Luca Cumani came out on top and now in the royal blue of Godolphin he looks to be the 2nd string against that same rival on the colours. This day they had Light from Mars well beaten off who rapidly fell away and this was not that rivals running as he would had found sandown not fully to his liking as he will today and the fact he is better off at the weights today it is interesting to see just how it pans out here. Godolphin dont usually have horses in early season handicaps and these two both are capable performers on their day. Start Right is better off at the weights and was well in command of his new stablemate this day and has the first time visor on today which is another eye catcher, Dane O'Neil gets the leg up on Start Right and he is 5-18 for the trainer which is decent in all accounts. Man of Action may have improved more then his new inmate having been more lightly raced and he has course form that I will elude to soon, But judging on the purchase, the visor, the jockey booking and the weight advantage from this day I feel Start Right can comfirm the form, both have returned from runs in Meydan.

10th Sept Doncaster

1st Man Of Action
2nd Eton Forever
7th Mia's Boy

A smaller field affair the today's Course handicap and Man OF Action was a very impressive winner this day and won with a shade of ease from today's antepost Favourite Eton Forever with Mia's Boy back in 7th never really involved in the race. The weights today have Eton Forever carrying 1lb less and Man of Action carrying 5lbs more then this day, while Mia's Boy has to carry 2lbs more in the handicap and more of less has little chance of reversing this running on those terms and what he showed that day even though he has shown better form since and all his best recent form from the past year having come on the polly track then turf, he is best passed over. Man of Action has a returning profile from overseas while Eton Forever who was a impressive winner at this meeting 12 months ago should be ready at the first time of asking. In terms of improvement Eton Forever I feel needs to find some as Man Of Action who is 5lbs worse was a comfortable winner, but the stronger pace could well see him reverse the form as it will enhance his chances more then Man of Action I feel.

2nd Apr Doncaster

1st Eton Forever
6th Smarty Socks
9th Pintura

Eton Forever enjoyed the strong pace on the spring cup at this meeting last year and really left the field tolling in his wake including Smarty Socks who was in his group and left him very one paced even though that rival wasnt the quickest over the first 3rd of the race and may have used up quite a bit of petrol just to get back into the mix. Pintura finished 3rd in his group on the wrong side in which justonefortheroad was the highest finisher in 4th place in this handicap so maybe his performance could have been rated a couple of lbs higher up. Both Eton Forever and Smarty Socks are better weigthed with Pintura and all 3 progressed last season. Based on this run Eton Forever looked in a different level to his rivals and Smarty Socks could well be rated better then this run, however he is high in the weigts now and he progressed over 7F leading more to why he was so comperhensivly beaten when dwelling in this race 12 months ago and always battling his stamina issues.

15th June Ascot

5th Eton Forever
6th StartRight
12th Pintura
24th Brae Hill

Brae Hill can be discounted from thi piece of form as he raced in a group of 2 with a outsider and was never a factor in this handicap in which all the pace was with the main group and Eton Forever came out on top of the other two who meet today, Pintura was well beaten off with maybe the tougher mile then newbury & york in which he keeps to his best run with chester was the cause but he is all wrong with both of his other rivals at the weights today based on thi effort but better is expected at doncaster today. On this occassion Eton Forever was always holding Start Right entering into the last furlong and the New Godolphin inmate put up his worse performance of the year in this race so there is a chance he can reverse the form with this track liekly to be more to his liking and the headgear going on for his first UK run for the trainer and even he is 3lbs worse off at the weights for 3/4L defeat, the Cumani horse progressed after this run while Eton Forever was already well on his way for the season in terms of improvement.


Verdict - Eton Forever has the course form to land this and it has been the target for the horse and there i every reason to believe he will reverse the form with Man Of Action on their running here last season, However the Godolphin 2nd strong Start Right is likey to go well and can be forgiven his effort at Epsom and Ascot last season as he started to come to hand after that in terms of growing into himself as a 4yo and made steady improvement in the latter stages of the season, he has the visor on today and that could well just help this horse out. Light from Mars should take a close hand in this handicap and has the form in the book to go well, he should be thereabouts having been prepeed for this run and with Lowther looking like he needs to learn how to trap again he looks the best of the more exposed runners in this handicap. The pace angle in the race I believe the high numbers will have it will Light from Mars gettting a toe along from CoCozza who will use his extra stamina to try and stretch it from the front. Start Right is kindly placed among those drawn high and should be nicely plced 4 off the rail.

Selections - LIGHT FROM MARS 1pt @ 20-1 VC & START RIGHT 1pt win @ 12-1 General

Best of luck all