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Has anyone got any thoughts, stats or experience whether backing steamers (horses moving in by a %) or drifters (horses moving out by a %) can lead to a profitable strategy?
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Yes, some people trade the odds even if they change by just 1 tick, then green up so no matter what outcome they get a profit. There are softwares designed specifically to aid in trading the odds in that way like Geek Toy (free) and Bet Angel (costs money). There are videos on youtube that show people using the Geek Toy and Bet Angel .
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Past data freely available from 2005 shows
Drifters 2233 bets +231 points profit (backing)
Steamers 3131 bets -349 points loss (backing)
I was wondering if anyone had evidence to prove/disprove this?
Past data freely available from 2005 shows
Drifters 2233 bets +231 points profit (backing)
Steamers 3131 bets -349 points loss (backing)
I was wondering if anyone had evidence to prove/disprove this?
wipeout, if that's the data betfair put up it was based on a small sample that covered only a few months. It also fails to take into account that if someone starts backing drifters for significant money then they probably won't be drifters any more, in fact they could end up steamers. It's a bit like saying if you backed horses with tote odds 5 times greater than sp then you'd show a profit but as soon as you start betting them for anything other than peanuts they won't be 5 times the sp.
FOUND IN BIG RACES favs created to suit, an other in race normally from same stables ,throw a few quid at one to create interest , then later lump on the other at much better odds on the day , more so ante/post markets , sat big races especially one of the oldeat tricks in the book . this was adopted many years ago ,,still relevant today I think, among big players . party to this in the late 60 s .lose a few gain much more ? any thoughts or experience out there ?.. every time betfair put up the 4 amigos on the start page I cringe ??
Wipeout, I've been backing 'drifters' for some time now. Through trial and error I've found it's best to limit yourself to better quality racing i.e no lower than class 3. (Tends to mean most of your bets are on Saturdays).
Rather than using the terminology 'drifters' I simply back horses that go off at bigger odds than the Racing Post forecast SP.
I also limit myself to horses priced up by the RP at 7/1 or lower. (purely based on stats. I've read somehwhere that something like 85%? of horses are returned at an ISP of 7/1 or less). You can apply to all horses in a race but I think when you get to the bigger prices there's more guesswork involved. However, if you have a huge betting bank you'll also get some huge price winners. e.g a horse won in Ireland on Sunday whose RP forecast tissue price was 25/1 and won at a betfair SP of 246/1
Basically, I calculate the overround then apply that to the horse I want to back. I also add in commission.
Therefore, as an example if a horse is priced in the RP tissue as 3/1 and the overrround is 20%, I will ask for SP odds of 3/1 + 20% + 5% (my commission rate) = 3.78/1 (4.78)rounded up to 4.8
Over the last couple of Saturdays, this has given me winners at SP of 16/1 (BSP about 20/1) (Cappa Bleu), 8/1 (BSP about 8.7/1)(I'msingingtheblues) and 2/1 (BSP 2.2/1)(Masterminded)
Obviously there's the losers to be factored in. Over the last 2 weeks I've had 16 bets with 3 winners as above
= approx 17pts profit. Strike rate only about 18/19% so you need a fairly big bank and be prepared for long losing runs.
The key, as always, seems to be discipline and unfortunately I haven'g got any. I throw all my profits away by applying the same principle to lower class (especially AW racing and greyhounds!)
I think the reason it works better for better class racing is that the RP tissue is probably more accurate for top class racing and generally every horse is trying as better prize money etc.
I have no idea whether this strategy stands the test of time but it seems based on fairly logical principles. Also, I don't profess to be an expert at gambling on horses and haven't got time to study form so this is just my cheap (£2 a bet) weekend's entertainment. Therefore, please don't follow this advice blindly.
Rather than using the terminology 'drifters' I simply back horses that go off at bigger odds than the Racing Post forecast SP.
I also limit myself to horses priced up by the RP at 7/1 or lower. (purely based on stats. I've read somehwhere that something like 85%? of horses are returned at an ISP of 7/1 or less). You can apply to all horses in a race but I think when you get to the bigger prices there's more guesswork involved. However, if you have a huge betting bank you'll also get some huge price winners. e.g a horse won in Ireland on Sunday whose RP forecast tissue price was 25/1 and won at a betfair SP of 246/1
Basically, I calculate the overround then apply that to the horse I want to back. I also add in commission.
Therefore, as an example if a horse is priced in the RP tissue as 3/1 and the overrround is 20%, I will ask for SP odds of 3/1 + 20% + 5% (my commission rate) = 3.78/1 (4.78)rounded up to 4.8
Over the last couple of Saturdays, this has given me winners at SP of 16/1 (BSP about 20/1) (Cappa Bleu), 8/1 (BSP about 8.7/1)(I'msingingtheblues) and 2/1 (BSP 2.2/1)(Masterminded)
Obviously there's the losers to be factored in. Over the last 2 weeks I've had 16 bets with 3 winners as above
= approx 17pts profit. Strike rate only about 18/19% so you need a fairly big bank and be prepared for long losing runs.
The key, as always, seems to be discipline and unfortunately I haven'g got any. I throw all my profits away by applying the same principle to lower class (especially AW racing and greyhounds!)
I think the reason it works better for better class racing is that the RP tissue is probably more accurate for top class racing and generally every horse is trying as better prize money etc.
I have no idea whether this strategy stands the test of time but it seems based on fairly logical principles. Also, I don't profess to be an expert at gambling on horses and haven't got time to study form so this is just my cheap (£2 a bet) weekend's entertainment. Therefore, please don't follow this advice blindly.
Hi,
Ive just been searching for further information on this subject as the last couple of days I have come across an angle which so far has produced 16 points in less than two full days.
It is of course very early days and this could go horribly wrong but purely by chance Ive correctly selected 5 winners from 8 races.
I was looking at the racing uk website yesterday, I noted down all the steamers, at the end of the day the steamers that won had all improved by 40% or more, the others I would not be too bothered about.
Already this afternoon a steamer over 40% has won again at 5/1 by 3 lengths and was taking it very easy when it got to the line, hope this helps, Like I said early days and needs extensive testing.
Ive just been searching for further information on this subject as the last couple of days I have come across an angle which so far has produced 16 points in less than two full days.
It is of course very early days and this could go horribly wrong but purely by chance Ive correctly selected 5 winners from 8 races.
I was looking at the racing uk website yesterday, I noted down all the steamers, at the end of the day the steamers that won had all improved by 40% or more, the others I would not be too bothered about.
Already this afternoon a steamer over 40% has won again at 5/1 by 3 lengths and was taking it very easy when it got to the line, hope this helps, Like I said early days and needs extensive testing.
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