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4.10 Goodwood
Nayef's offspring are 5-131 (3.8%) first-time-out, which is a large enough sample size to illustrate a very strong need for experience as one of their characteristics. His offspring at 6-22 (22.2%) over nine furlongs, the trip which AAZIF faces on his second run today. Richard Hills I think is also slightly aware of easing newcomers into the game, and rarely gives them the full treatment when they run on debut. This is backed up by his main average being greater than his stats for first-time-out rides. John Dunlop also rarely has a first-time-out winner, he is 28-554 (5.1%) with runners that fit in that category, but his main average is just under 13%.
Aside from the winner, he was pretty much the last horse off the bridle on his debut, clearly travelling like a horse with great ability. He seemed to get outpaced when he was asked for his effort, but the way he travelled indicates to me that he would appreciate the step up in trip. As already mentioned, on his breeding on his sire's side, the step up in trip of an extra two furlongs to nine furlongs is a big positive. This potential preference for the step up in trip is also exhibited on the dam's side as AAZIF is a half brother to three winners including the high-class stayer Akmal and two further winners, one over thirteen furlongs and one over fourteen furlongs.
The form of that race has not worked out brilliantly, but none of the horses near the top of the race have run since, and I think AAZIF was not illustrating his full potential on debut, and there is a lot more to come.
John Dunlop has entered AAZIF in the Derby next year, which would indicate he has high aims as a 3yo, but he is also entered in Racing Post Trophy, indicating that he is thought of as a smart 2yo. I think it is also significant that he is John Dunlop's only entry in the race.
11-4 seems more than fair, but I think the market is worth a watch too. I have had a nice bet n him.
Any other views?
Nayef's offspring are 5-131 (3.8%) first-time-out, which is a large enough sample size to illustrate a very strong need for experience as one of their characteristics. His offspring at 6-22 (22.2%) over nine furlongs, the trip which AAZIF faces on his second run today. Richard Hills I think is also slightly aware of easing newcomers into the game, and rarely gives them the full treatment when they run on debut. This is backed up by his main average being greater than his stats for first-time-out rides. John Dunlop also rarely has a first-time-out winner, he is 28-554 (5.1%) with runners that fit in that category, but his main average is just under 13%.
Aside from the winner, he was pretty much the last horse off the bridle on his debut, clearly travelling like a horse with great ability. He seemed to get outpaced when he was asked for his effort, but the way he travelled indicates to me that he would appreciate the step up in trip. As already mentioned, on his breeding on his sire's side, the step up in trip of an extra two furlongs to nine furlongs is a big positive. This potential preference for the step up in trip is also exhibited on the dam's side as AAZIF is a half brother to three winners including the high-class stayer Akmal and two further winners, one over thirteen furlongs and one over fourteen furlongs.
The form of that race has not worked out brilliantly, but none of the horses near the top of the race have run since, and I think AAZIF was not illustrating his full potential on debut, and there is a lot more to come.
John Dunlop has entered AAZIF in the Derby next year, which would indicate he has high aims as a 3yo, but he is also entered in Racing Post Trophy, indicating that he is thought of as a smart 2yo. I think it is also significant that he is John Dunlop's only entry in the race.
11-4 seems more than fair, but I think the market is worth a watch too. I have had a nice bet n him.
Any other views?
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Replies: 11
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i always lay the doughnut on shorties.hope to get matched at 11/8.
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good calljackis.
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Great shout Jacki - hope you filled your boots!
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Interesting that you got no responses to your post,even though it was offered with good statistical evidence and your interpretation of his previous form,i think the silence speaks volumes about the general state of this forum.
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Thanks guys, pleased with how well he ran. Those fto trainer/breeding stats were too strong to ignore in my opinion!
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Agree with Victis and well done Jackisnice,good work.
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Totally agree Victis. I started to post here because I wanted people to put arguments against my selection and/or put up other selections in the race, ie to discuss it, after not getting that kind of atmosphere in other places on the internet. Seems to be lots of negativity all the time!
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Tried it once,got mocked for typing Abbott,instead of Abbot[smiley:crazy].
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Well done Jack - good stuff ....
Agree with others about the state of this place these days - if your selection had bombed you would have had numerous "replies" .... Anyway, well done again |
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wd
GL |
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If someone puts up a well written and logical argument for a horse's chance, without claiming to be the next tipping "messiah", as Jack has done here, then regardless of the outcome, I doubt there will be much, if any, negativity.
Like on therobster27's tipping thread, people can see he's put the work in and if he tips a loser, those who follow the thread wish him well with the next selection. Fwiw, a couple of us did reply to Jack's other thread. Keep up the good work, Jack, we need more quality threads like this on the forum! |