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05 Oct 11
18:21
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Date Joined:
10 Jan 02
A horse competitive in class 2 races beaten by a horse whose form entitled it to be contesting sellers/claimers according to timeform. Looked a 2/5 shot to me and I could fathom being able to get whatever you wanted on at between 4/5 and 1/1 had it been a non-trier but beaten on the nod obviously suggests otherwise.
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Replies: 28
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Rated 27 lb clear by timeform and as much in hand with my own ratings. WTF with the price?
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THEY new
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on the nod,horses cant read.
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But THEY didn't Stake. That's my point. If it had went off 2/5 and been beaten it's just another horse that under performed but HITF were people laying it at 2.0 if it was a trier? Surely there's a layer on here can explain to me why they laid it?
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People wouldnt have liked taking short odds on one drawn 11 of 12 over 5f at Kempton....not sure what Timeform rate her best run but RPR make her York run best (admittedly by only 4lb) and that race wasnt working out well last time i looked...maybe fact she'd had 6 prev attempts and was still a maiden...?
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They probably saw the stat in the rpost.
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duncan, there was so much sh1t inside it the draw was never going to be a problem.
kenco, what stat? |
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the draw and sires course stats made it 4/5
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Was a good spotlight in the RP for the 6.10 - giving the draw and sire (and not just for the fav) stats. Good to see a spotlight writer putting the work in.
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in that instance, i agree with you feck.....i was just tossing some possibilities around
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As the person who purchased Sunrise Dance,I can't begin to tell you how gutted myself,Michael and his brother matthew are.I advised them to travel down from Gateshead as I also thought she was a genuine 2/5 favourite given the fact she was so well clear on official ratings.I can assure you we were in tonight to win and It's fair to say we had large bets on her.From here I am not sure where we go but I am keen to put her in a claimer at Kempton on October 20th.When people have doubts about what trip horses want and there ae so many different opinions maybe it's time to get rid.I know alan has a lot more faith in her than I do presently,I know they had it off on the winner and fair play to them.Although we had the 11 box I didnt think we would get beat this evening.
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The draw's a nonentity in this case imo. I find it hard to believe the first run on the surface would allow for such confident laying or any spotlight stat for that matter. The "dodgepot" reason doesn't compute with me either as the horse has been making the running and it looked unlikely there'd be anything to dodge. Compare 2.0 Sunrise Dance with 2.6 Pertemps Express on Saturday night. FFS.
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The stats were - no horse had won from that draw in a field of 12 (0-33), though there was a NR, and the sire was 4% (4-110) at Kempton and only 6% on poly'.
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Commiserations FW. Had a large bet myself. Not whinging, just can't fathom it.
George, the draw stats are made up from more competitive races than that one. I don't bother with sire |
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Sorry, I don't bother with sire stats myself.
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Don't believe they're that significant tbh.
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I'd love it to be the case that all I was up against on here was people who dabble in sire stats and base their prices on spotlight stats.
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Fair point about the draw in this instance as she seemed to get across easily enough, if a tad keen.
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fallon,s whistle respect for posting with your views and sympathise with your loss .....
Feck N. Eejit sometimes the stats are a good guide and other times they are a waste of time so I can understand that view in ignoring a variable stat .... How the fook do we pick winners again .... [smiley:crazy] |
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It was noticeable that after she got across to be one off the rail without having to do too much, the IR odds seemed to hold up - she was still available to back at around 4-5. I was expecting to see 1.5 at best if the main reason for opposing her was the draw.
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drawn wide if u miss kick your foooked simple as...therin was the risk
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Good point George.
Warwick, the second fav was drawn 8 (the horses drawn 9 & 10 were 33's & 50's). The fav's odds in relation to the 2nd fav's odds surely cannot be accounted for by 3 stall widths. |
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fallon,s whistle 05 Oct 11 19:03
As the person who purchased Sunrise Dance ----------------------------------------- Presumably privately from the trainer - as it is a home-bred which did not go through the ring? |
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Onlooker.Yes that is correct.I am allowed to do this arent I??
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Sure - just getting confirmation that there isn't a Flat Sales that Racing Post don't cover, in the horse's pedigree analysis.
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Ok.yes I watched her work with Van Der Art and liked what I seen.However we have been hands off with her and we would have prefered not to have rin in such competetive maidens.The plan was to win a poor maiden,But we ended up in York twice ,Goodwood,Chester.It's hands on from now.
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Thanks - Well, that was your first attempt on the All-Weather, and her dam was 1 from 1 on the Polytrack, from only 4 lifetime outings.... So you can keep going when the Turf finishes.
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Simple case of one liking the surface and the other not,the chester time was good over further on soft ground and there were no excuses on this never really looked like picking up.Very much doubt it will win on this surface but on another day against the same opposition would win 5ls.[;)]
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