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He's doing my head in!
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Mark Johnston, can anybody read his horses?
1)Mark Johnston
cant think of many others.
1)Mark Johnston
cant think of many others.
I can - they are tailed off first run and then come out like worldbeaters the next [:x]
[>o] don't get me started on this feckin yard.
MJ has NO IDEA himself when the dart might hit the target, he just keeps throwing.
The Arabs spend gazzillions with this man on one paced orrible Yaks for the most part and he rarely has top class animals considering the millions spent.
I would argue it is IMPOSSIBLE to read this yard and I for one get it HORRIBLY wrong in the extreme.
If I bet one of his ( never give up ) animals they are under the pump and tailed , only to win nto as game as they come.
If I don't and one of mine is in a fight with one of his, you guessed the rest, I rarely if ever bet one of his based on FORM.
His fav in the Redcar 2yo race is a prime example, 2/1 fav and under the cosh miles out and almost last as with htat one last week Smart ??? got beat 32 lengths then hoses up.
Please take a happy retirement NOE MJ and let Keith Dalgliesh take over.
I feckin hate the MJ yard from the deepest depths of my
Pockets
MJ has NO IDEA himself when the dart might hit the target, he just keeps throwing.
The Arabs spend gazzillions with this man on one paced orrible Yaks for the most part and he rarely has top class animals considering the millions spent.
I would argue it is IMPOSSIBLE to read this yard and I for one get it HORRIBLY wrong in the extreme.
If I bet one of his ( never give up ) animals they are under the pump and tailed , only to win nto as game as they come.
If I don't and one of mine is in a fight with one of his, you guessed the rest, I rarely if ever bet one of his based on FORM.
His fav in the Redcar 2yo race is a prime example, 2/1 fav and under the cosh miles out and almost last as with htat one last week Smart ??? got beat 32 lengths then hoses up.
Please take a happy retirement NOE MJ and let Keith Dalgliesh take over.
I feckin hate the MJ yard from the deepest depths of my
Pockets
Just keeps running out of form horses in the hope they will come back to form
An old article i have may be of some use to you, maybe not.
The Key To Finding Winners Trained By Mark Johnston.
By a chap Called Jason Woodruff, many thanks Jason hope you dont mind sharing.
Whenever a trainer steps their horse up in trip on the flat, it usually means one of two things. Either the trainer is running them over an unsuitable trip to keep their horses handicap mark low whilst having an opportunity to give them some more racing experience, it can also mean that the trainer is still unsure about the horses optimum trip and is still trying to find out; if it's the latter reason, you can be pretty sure the horses are fit enough to do themselves justice, especially with a trainer like Mark Johnston who is someone that embraces new medicine and training techniques more than any other trainer I know of.
I've read on numerous occasions that Mark Johnstons' horses were always worth checking out when being stepped up in trip, finally I have had the time to do the required research, I'd like to share my findings with you, it makes for very interesting reading. I tried to make the search as broad as possible, so my research covers both the flat and all weather surfaces, it details the results of horses stepping up in trip based on the race distance they tried last time out only. Some horses may have been stepped up in trip in the past, the remainder will have done this for the first time. This was a conscious decision on my part so the reader had as many opportunities to apply this research in the future.
I decided to group the data in such a way that could easily identify any patterns, initially I tested for horses stepping up to a mile having raced over 5 furlongs or 6 furlongs or 7 furlongs, I then tested in the same manner for the most common race distances up to 1 mile 6 furlongs, so the test related to horses stepping up to 1 mile 6 furlongs involved breaking the data down into horse that raced over 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 or 13 furlongs last time out. By the time I was finished, I had spotted a clear pattern and it was pretty much what I was expecting to see.
It turns out that Marks Johnstons' horses are never more interesting than when they are stepping up in trip by more than one furlong; this makes sense to me as Mark would be more certain that the horse would benefit from a longer trip when they were being stepped up by more than a furlong. Horses being stepped up only a furlong were still interesting and in most cases they were showing a small profit, but it was clear that in nearly every case where the horse was being stepped up in trip by between 2 and 4 furlongs, his horses showed a very healthy profit.
Rather than combine all the research into one final figure, I've decided to publish small subsections of results that I believe make the most compelling reading; I feel the results would be less meaningful if I adopted my normal strategy of combining all the data together. When I write ROI, I'm referring to the return on your investment, there are 8 furlongs to 1 mile, I have rounded wins/runs and ROI percentages up or down so it's easier to read. Here's what I found:
HORSES STEPPING UP TO 1 MILE:
From 5 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 1/4 (25%)
ROI: 225%
From 6 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 12/79 (15%)
ROI: 9%
From 7 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 67/356 (19%)
ROI: 6%
HORSES STEPPING UP TO 1 MILE 1 FURLONG:
From 6 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 3/14 (21%)
ROI: 61%
From 7 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 13/63 (21%)
ROI: 25%
From 8 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 32/149 (22%)
ROI: 10%
HORSES STEPPING UP TO 1 MILE 2 FURLONGS:
From 6 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 1/7 (14%)
ROI: 143%
From 7 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 15/56 (27%)
ROI: 148%
From 8 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 25/186 (13%)
ROI: -32%
From 9 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 18/96 (21%)
ROI: -31%
HORSES STEPPING UP TO 1 MILE 4 FURLONGS:
From 7 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 1/6 (17%)
ROI: -72%
From 8 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 11/49 (22%)
ROI: 12%
From 9 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 7/35 (20%)
ROI: -27%
From 10 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 32/183 (18%)
ROI: 18%
From 11 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 14/79 (18%)
ROI: 18%
HORSES STEPPING UP TO 1 MILE 6 FURLONGS:
From 8 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 0/1 (0%)
ROI: -100%
From 10 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 0/6 (0%)
ROI: -100%
From 11 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 3/5 (60%)
ROI: 702%
From 12 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 16/80 (20%)
ROI: 53%
From 13 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 3/11 (27%)
ROI: 14%
I believe we can draw real life conclusions from these results. I'd wager that punters have already figured out that betting on Mark Johnstons horses when stepping up in trip can be a profitable play and the majority of them are betting on him doing it when stepping a horse up to 1 mile 2 furlongs and 1 mile 4 furlongs. I don't think punters have latched onto the fact that he's capable of stepping them up more than a furlong or two without their win rate dropping too much. As a result, the bookies have sucked most of the value out of his horses stepping up in trip by one furlong and to a lesser extent by two furlongs, but there still looks to be a good opportunity of finding a nice priced winner when spotting a horse stepping up in trip by two, three and four furlongs. I doubt this article will have any significant effect on future ROI results as I expect most punters won't ever read this article (or similar ones for that matter) with only a handful of people willing to do serious research being the ones to benefit from this opportunity the most.
The Key To Finding Winners Trained By Mark Johnston.
By a chap Called Jason Woodruff, many thanks Jason hope you dont mind sharing.
Whenever a trainer steps their horse up in trip on the flat, it usually means one of two things. Either the trainer is running them over an unsuitable trip to keep their horses handicap mark low whilst having an opportunity to give them some more racing experience, it can also mean that the trainer is still unsure about the horses optimum trip and is still trying to find out; if it's the latter reason, you can be pretty sure the horses are fit enough to do themselves justice, especially with a trainer like Mark Johnston who is someone that embraces new medicine and training techniques more than any other trainer I know of.
I've read on numerous occasions that Mark Johnstons' horses were always worth checking out when being stepped up in trip, finally I have had the time to do the required research, I'd like to share my findings with you, it makes for very interesting reading. I tried to make the search as broad as possible, so my research covers both the flat and all weather surfaces, it details the results of horses stepping up in trip based on the race distance they tried last time out only. Some horses may have been stepped up in trip in the past, the remainder will have done this for the first time. This was a conscious decision on my part so the reader had as many opportunities to apply this research in the future.
I decided to group the data in such a way that could easily identify any patterns, initially I tested for horses stepping up to a mile having raced over 5 furlongs or 6 furlongs or 7 furlongs, I then tested in the same manner for the most common race distances up to 1 mile 6 furlongs, so the test related to horses stepping up to 1 mile 6 furlongs involved breaking the data down into horse that raced over 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 or 13 furlongs last time out. By the time I was finished, I had spotted a clear pattern and it was pretty much what I was expecting to see.
It turns out that Marks Johnstons' horses are never more interesting than when they are stepping up in trip by more than one furlong; this makes sense to me as Mark would be more certain that the horse would benefit from a longer trip when they were being stepped up by more than a furlong. Horses being stepped up only a furlong were still interesting and in most cases they were showing a small profit, but it was clear that in nearly every case where the horse was being stepped up in trip by between 2 and 4 furlongs, his horses showed a very healthy profit.
Rather than combine all the research into one final figure, I've decided to publish small subsections of results that I believe make the most compelling reading; I feel the results would be less meaningful if I adopted my normal strategy of combining all the data together. When I write ROI, I'm referring to the return on your investment, there are 8 furlongs to 1 mile, I have rounded wins/runs and ROI percentages up or down so it's easier to read. Here's what I found:
HORSES STEPPING UP TO 1 MILE:
From 5 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 1/4 (25%)
ROI: 225%
From 6 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 12/79 (15%)
ROI: 9%
From 7 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 67/356 (19%)
ROI: 6%
HORSES STEPPING UP TO 1 MILE 1 FURLONG:
From 6 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 3/14 (21%)
ROI: 61%
From 7 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 13/63 (21%)
ROI: 25%
From 8 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 32/149 (22%)
ROI: 10%
HORSES STEPPING UP TO 1 MILE 2 FURLONGS:
From 6 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 1/7 (14%)
ROI: 143%
From 7 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 15/56 (27%)
ROI: 148%
From 8 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 25/186 (13%)
ROI: -32%
From 9 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 18/96 (21%)
ROI: -31%
HORSES STEPPING UP TO 1 MILE 4 FURLONGS:
From 7 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 1/6 (17%)
ROI: -72%
From 8 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 11/49 (22%)
ROI: 12%
From 9 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 7/35 (20%)
ROI: -27%
From 10 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 32/183 (18%)
ROI: 18%
From 11 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 14/79 (18%)
ROI: 18%
HORSES STEPPING UP TO 1 MILE 6 FURLONGS:
From 8 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 0/1 (0%)
ROI: -100%
From 10 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 0/6 (0%)
ROI: -100%
From 11 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 3/5 (60%)
ROI: 702%
From 12 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 16/80 (20%)
ROI: 53%
From 13 furlongs:
Wins/Runs: 3/11 (27%)
ROI: 14%
I believe we can draw real life conclusions from these results. I'd wager that punters have already figured out that betting on Mark Johnstons horses when stepping up in trip can be a profitable play and the majority of them are betting on him doing it when stepping a horse up to 1 mile 2 furlongs and 1 mile 4 furlongs. I don't think punters have latched onto the fact that he's capable of stepping them up more than a furlong or two without their win rate dropping too much. As a result, the bookies have sucked most of the value out of his horses stepping up in trip by one furlong and to a lesser extent by two furlongs, but there still looks to be a good opportunity of finding a nice priced winner when spotting a horse stepping up in trip by two, three and four furlongs. I doubt this article will have any significant effect on future ROI results as I expect most punters won't ever read this article (or similar ones for that matter) with only a handful of people willing to do serious research being the ones to benefit from this opportunity the most.
I knew many years ago about him stepping horses up in trip its the inconsistant form i cant get to grips with.
Thx for sharing
The ONE and ONLY thing I find profitable and have done for years is MJ's approach to the WFA system after June in races of 1m2F or more.
It is obvious from his approach to these racves that he feels the WFA is massively in favour of the 3yo's as do I and these handicapp races from the Midlands upwards rarely pass without a runenr from his yard who is 3yrs old.
I can assure you this has proved a very profitable thing to follow but until now it is the ONLY thing consistent I have found from that yard.
The thing I hate most is the manner in which they get beat, absulutley terrible runs from horses who are never travelling / horible head carriages etc etc then whoooosh nto.
The constant love in from pundits with the old "His horses are so game and never give up " bolllox
I do however fully agree with his theory about horse physioligy regarding the ability to QUICKEN and how very few horse have the number of fast twitch fibres to enable them to do thid along with the capability to breath well enough to do this.
He fully believes that horse who wind up slowly have the ability to maintain a gallop for longer, it is this theary rather than them being tougher or fitter than other horses that shows itself.
Many horse would benefit from finding a rythm and slowly extenting to max exurtion rather than waiting to pounce as at Ponty today where his beat the Prescott yak despite not gojng as well in the straight but the Prescott horse which was asked to Quicken past him.
The ONE and ONLY thing I find profitable and have done for years is MJ's approach to the WFA system after June in races of 1m2F or more.
It is obvious from his approach to these racves that he feels the WFA is massively in favour of the 3yo's as do I and these handicapp races from the Midlands upwards rarely pass without a runenr from his yard who is 3yrs old.
I can assure you this has proved a very profitable thing to follow but until now it is the ONLY thing consistent I have found from that yard.
The thing I hate most is the manner in which they get beat, absulutley terrible runs from horses who are never travelling / horible head carriages etc etc then whoooosh nto.
The constant love in from pundits with the old "His horses are so game and never give up " bolllox
I do however fully agree with his theory about horse physioligy regarding the ability to QUICKEN and how very few horse have the number of fast twitch fibres to enable them to do thid along with the capability to breath well enough to do this.
He fully believes that horse who wind up slowly have the ability to maintain a gallop for longer, it is this theary rather than them being tougher or fitter than other horses that shows itself.
Many horse would benefit from finding a rythm and slowly extenting to max exurtion rather than waiting to pounce as at Ponty today where his beat the Prescott yak despite not gojng as well in the straight but the Prescott horse which was asked to Quicken past him.
Something appears wrong at this stable - for whatever reason he is having his worst turf season for a long time - the strike rate is down considerably and earnings are around half of each of the previous two turf campaigns and there is only a month left of the season - he has never been an easy trainer to fathom but this year it is impossible to figure out what will happen next .....
As has been said earlier - best left alone .....
As has been said earlier - best left alone .....
If I had a horse I'd have it put down before I'd send it to this man. Auschwitz for horses.
look no further than the 3.20s
see other thread.
up from 7f-1m4f after 3 runs.[;)]
see other thread.
up from 7f-1m4f after 3 runs.[;)]
agree zippie, if i back one of his its tailed off , if i lay his looks beaten inside final furlong then always fights back and wins, horrible man and stable
its good a lot of you have caught up, been saying it for the last 3 years, one other trainer thats worse than him thats been terrible this year, you lot tell me about him in a few years time, there is them that know and there is them that think they know, lol calm down only a wine up
In fact, I didn't even dare to back it in the foto coz if I had
it would been second.
it would been second.
A FTO 2YO Braveheart winner - the first harbinger of the end of days..... 
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