Staking plan needed for (so far profitable) system

Imo,
staking plans are generally BS. Retrospectively, you can always jig them (ie backfit) so that you have bigger bets on your winners, and smaller ones on your losers, and then make out they're the secret to success. But they ain't.

If you're good at picking, you'll make a profit without a staking plan. If you're not, you won't. A staking plan won't turn you from a losing punter into a winning one, or vice versa.

If you're good, then just gradually increase your stake as your bank grows.

+31.66 over 100 days, but how many selections? i think that is key?

How many selections? 30 yesterday (all lays)

Level stakes betting is the only way, anything else incorporates chasing

^ agreed. Plus any staking system is based on winners/losers falling in a certain sequence. This is random - and introduces an element of 'chance' that is unscientific - and will fail in the long run.

ged is correct too.

ye just increase stakes as bank grows

Ok, I only increase the stake when I have the same stake:bank ratio as when I started the system.... 10/1000, 15/1500 etc

check out maria staking system, thats good

Maria staking system, stake always 1% (less than 3.7 etc.) of bank at start of day.  I'll check it out... I had something similar when betfair first started, first year on paper won 100,000+ points, next year, ended up 100+ points but stopped when I was 900 points down.

ouch!

[   This image is no longer available.   ]

If you're good at picking, you'll make a profit without a staking plan. If you're not, you won't. A staking plan won't turn you from a losing punter into a winning one, or vice versa.


never a truer word spoken.

Alpha, I agree, I can't stand those holy than thou Christians.

Here are 4 diff staking plans:
1: flat stks no change
2: change stake when bank reaches 150,200,250 etc
3: maria system, always 1/100 of bank at start of day
4: Increase by 1/10 of a point after losing day until previous day's losses are recouped.

days	flat stk	100	slow inc	100	maria	100	Loss +1/10 pt	100
1	-10.77	89	-10.77	89	-10.77	89	-10.77	89
2	-9.23	80	-9.23	80	-8.21	81	-10.15	79
3	-7.69	72	-7.69	72	-6.23	75	-9.23	70
4	0.32	73	0.32	73	0.24	75	0.45	70
5	-8.55	64	-8.55	64	-6.41	69	-11.97	58
6	2.42	66	2.42	66	1.66	70	3.63	62
7	-4.10	62	-4.10	62	-2.88	67	-6.15	56
8	0.13	63	0.13	63	0.09	67	0.21	56
9	-0.29	62	-0.29	62	-0.20	67	-0.47	56
10	-8.22	54	-8.22	54	-5.53	62	-13.97	42
11	-0.09	54	-0.09	54	-0.06	62	-0.17	41
12	-1.31	53	-1.31	53	-0.81	61	-2.50	39
13	0.38	53	0.38	53	0.23	61	0.76	40
14	-1.71	51	-1.71	51	-1.04	60	-3.41	36
15	-1.36	50	-1.36	50	-0.82	59	-2.85	33
16	4.48	54	4.48	54	2.65	62	9.85	43
17	-1.52	53	-1.52	53	-0.94	61	-3.19	40
18	19.46	72	19.46	72	11.87	73	42.82	83
19	-4.98	67	-4.98	67	-3.63	69	-10.46	72
20	7.22	75	7.22	75	4.99	74	15.88	88
21	4.70	79	4.70	79	3.49	78	9.87	98
22	-0.46	79	-0.46	79	-0.36	77	-0.93	97
23	4.40	83	4.40	83	3.40	81	9.24	106
24	11.65	95	11.65	95	9.41	90	11.65	118
25	10.97	106	10.97	106	9.88	100	10.97	129
26	-9.67	96	-9.67	96	-9.67	90	-9.67	119
27	6.15	102	6.15	102	5.56	96	6.77	126
28	14.51	117	14.51	117	13.92	110	15.96	142
29	-1.16	116	-1.16	116	-1.28	109	-1.16	141
30	8.15	124	8.15	124	8.85	117	8.97	150
31	-0.43	123	-0.43	123	-0.51	117	-0.43	150
32	3.79	127	3.79	127	4.43	121	4.17	154
33	12.98	140	12.98	140	15.74	137	12.98	167
34	7.85	148	7.85	148	10.77	148	7.85	175
35	0.90	149	0.90	149	1.33	149	0.90	175
36	4.93	154	4.93	154	7.35	157	4.93	180
37	-1.91	152	-2.86	151	-2.98	154	-1.91	178
38	-4.91	147	-7.37	144	-7.54	146	-5.40	173
39	-9.55	137	-14.32	129	-13.93	132	-11.45	162
40	6.21	144	9.32	139	8.20	140	8.07	170
41	-5.32	138	-7.99	131	-7.47	133	-6.92	163
42	-7.70	131	-11.56	119	-10.23	123	-10.79	152
43	0.57	131	0.85	120	0.70	123	0.85	153
44	-14.03	117	-21.04	99	-17.29	106	-21.04	132
45	4.00	121	6.00	105	4.24	110	6.40	138
46	6.49	128	9.74	115	7.16	117	10.39	149
47	-3.04	125	-4.56	110	-3.57	114	-4.86	144
48	-12.46	112	-18.70	91	-14.18	100	-21.19	122
49	10.52	123	15.77	107	10.47	110	18.93	141
50	0.21	123	0.31	107	0.23	110	0.37	142
days	flat stk	Bank	slow inc	Bank	maria	Bank	Loss +1/10 pt	Bank

whats your longest losing run if you dont mind me asking
cheers

I haven't counted the worst losing streak but its been a good year for the losers... but Godolphin's resurgence may change all that.

next 50 days

days	flat stk	Bank	slow inc	Bank	maria	Bank	Loss +1/10 pt	Bank
51	-3.98	119	-5.96	101	-4.39	106	-7.16	135
52	15.08	134	22.62	124	15.97	122	28.66	163
53	7.11	141	10.66	135	8.66	131	12.79	176
54	-0.45	141	-0.68	134	-0.59	130	-0.77	175
55	2.06	143	3.09	137	2.68	133	3.71	179
56	-8.21	135	-12.31	125	-10.88	122	-13.95	165
57	-11.43	123	-17.14	108	-13.92	108	-20.57	145
58	2.35	125	3.52	111	2.53	110	4.46	149
59	0.72	126	1.08	112	0.80	111	1.37	150
60	-0.97	125	-1.45	111	-1.08	110	-1.84	148
61	-7.75	117	-11.63	99	-8.53	102	-15.50	133
62	-5.51	112	-8.26	91	-5.59	96	-11.57	121
63	5.64	118	8.46	99	5.41	101	12.41	134
64	-5.02	113	-7.53	92	-5.09	96	-10.55	123
65	13.57	126	20.36	112	13.07	109	29.86	153
66	-7.39	119	-11.08	101	-8.08	101	-15.51	138
67	-2.35	116	-3.52	98	-2.38	99	-5.16	132
68	-4.56	112	-6.84	91	-4.51	94	-10.49	122
69	-5.20	107	-7.80	83	-4.91	89	-12.49	110
70	1.89	109	2.84	86	1.69	91	4.73	114
71	6.02	115	9.02	95	5.48	97	15.04	129
72	7.30	122	10.95	106	7.05	104	17.52	147
73	-7.21	115	-10.82	95	-7.48	96	-16.58	130
74	33.29	148	49.93	145	32.04	128	79.89	210
75	-0.81	147	-1.22	144	-1.04	127	-0.81	209
76	8.98	156	13.47	157	11.42	139	9.88	219
77	1.72	158	2.58	160	2.38	141	1.72	221
78	-20.85	137	-31.28	129	-29.41	112	-20.85	200
79	5.29	142	7.93	136	5.90	118	5.82	206
80	-0.83	141	-1.24	135	-0.97	117	-0.91	205
81	7.51	149	11.27	146	8.76	125	9.02	214
82	0.17	149	0.26	147	0.21	126	0.19	214
83	7.91	157	11.87	159	9.93	135	8.70	223
84	-0.69	156	-1.03	158	-0.93	135	-0.69	222
85	0.98	157	1.46	159	1.31	136	1.07	223
86	-11.43	146	-17.14	142	-15.52	120	-11.43	212
87	7.84	154	11.76	154	9.43	130	8.62	220
88	12.20	166	18.30	172	15.83	146	13.42	234
89	0.36	166	0.54	172	0.52	146	0.36	234
90	2.08	168	3.12	176	3.04	149	2.08	236
91	0.82	169	1.23	177	1.22	150	0.82	237
92	-8.28	161	-12.41	164	-12.44	138	-8.28	229
93	-1.62	159	-2.44	162	-2.24	136	-1.79	227
94	-19.59	140	-29.38	133	-26.58	109	-23.50	204
95	-1.16	139	-1.74	131	-1.27	108	-1.51	202
96	4.49	143	6.73	138	4.84	113	6.29	208
97	-4.90	138	-7.34	130	-5.52	107	-6.37	202
98	7.23	145	10.84	141	7.75	115	10.12	212
99	-7.55	138	-11.32	130	-8.67	106	-9.81	202
100	-6.13	132	-9.19	121	-6.51	100	-8.58	194
days	flat stk	Bank	slow inc	Bank	maria	Bank	Loss +1/10 pt	Bank

its seems pretty obvious which you should go for then?

101-150 days

days	flat stk	Bank	slow inc	Bank	maria	Bank	Loss +1/10 pt	Bank
101	6.68	138	10.02	131	6.66	106	10.02	204
102	2.69	141	4.03	135	2.86	109	3.76	207
103	8.45	149	12.68	147	9.24	118	11.84	219
104	-6.32	143	-9.47	138	-7.48	111	-8.21	211
105	6.50	150	9.75	148	7.21	118	9.10	220
106	0.70	150	1.05	149	0.83	119	0.91	221
107	12.62	163	18.93	168	15.02	134	12.62	234
108	3.22	166	4.83	172	4.32	138	3.22	237
109	-4.71	161	-7.07	165	-6.52	132	-4.71	232
110	-0.37	161	-0.56	165	-0.49	131	-0.41	232
111	5.54	167	8.30	173	7.27	139	6.64	238
112	4.51	171	6.76	180	6.25	145	4.51	243
113	-5.84	165	-8.76	171	-8.46	136	-5.84	237
114	-2.38	163	-3.57	167	-3.25	133	-2.62	235
115	-0.66	162	-0.99	167	-0.88	132	-0.79	234
116	6.15	168	9.22	176	8.14	140	7.99	242
117	-11.30	157	-16.95	159	-15.87	125	-13.56	228
118	1.53	159	2.30	161	1.91	126	1.99	230
119	-12.93	146	-19.39	142	-16.35	110	-16.80	213
120	-2.69	143	-4.03	138	-2.96	107	-3.76	210
121	1.50	145	2.25	140	1.61	109	2.25	212
122	-11.39	133	-17.08	123	-12.39	96	-17.08	195
123	0.56	134	0.85	124	0.54	97	0.90	196
124	-3.11	131	-4.67	119	-3.02	94	-4.98	191
125	0.99	132	1.48	121	0.93	95	1.68	192
126	-2.28	129	-3.41	117	-2.16	93	-3.87	188
127	-1.36	128	-2.04	115	-1.26	91	-2.45	186
128	-3.67	124	-5.50	110	-3.35	88	-6.96	179
129	-5.71	119	-8.56	101	-5.03	83	-11.41	168
130	0.59	119	0.89	102	0.49	84	1.24	169
131	3.13	122	4.70	107	2.62	86	6.58	175
132	-10.83	112	-16.24	90	-9.33	77	-22.74	153
133	0.10	112	0.14	90	0.07	77	0.21	153
134	3.65	115	5.48	96	2.81	80	8.04	161
135	8.77	124	13.15	109	6.99	87	19.29	180
136	15.00	139	22.49	132	13.00	100	31.49	212
137	-0.24	139	-0.36	131	-0.24	99	-0.48	211
138	2.58	141	3.87	135	2.57	102	5.42	217
139	-10.33	131	-15.49	120	-10.54	92	-21.69	195
140	-0.31	131	-0.46	119	-0.28	91	-0.68	194
141	-12.02	119	-18.02	101	-10.96	80	-27.64	167
142	-1.25	117	-1.88	99	-1.01	79	-3.01	164
143	-6.24	111	-9.37	90	-4.95	74	-15.61	148
144	2.96	114	4.44	94	2.20	77	7.70	156
145	10.86	125	16.29	111	8.31	85	28.23	184
146	3.24	128	4.86	115	2.75	88	8.09	192
147	-6.47	122	-9.71	106	-5.66	82	-15.53	177
148	8.37	130	12.55	118	6.85	89	20.92	198
149	-3.29	127	-4.93	113	-2.92	86	-7.89	190
150	0.03	127	0.04	113	0.02	86	0.07	190
days	flat stk	Bank	slow inc	Bank	maria	Bank	Loss +1/10 pt	Bank

151-200 days

days	flat stk	Bank	slow inc	Bank	maria	Bank	Loss +1/10 pt	Bank
151	14.82	142	22.23	136	12.72	99	37.05	227
152	1.63	143	2.45	138	1.61	100	3.91	231
153	9.38	153	14.07	152	9.40	110	21.58	252
154	16.82	170	25.22	177	18.43	128	16.82	269
155	-10.33	159	-15.50	162	-13.23	115	-10.33	259
156	0.63	160	0.95	163	0.73	116	0.70	259
157	-2.34	158	-3.50	159	-2.70	113	-2.57	257
158	5.54	163	8.32	168	6.25	119	6.65	263
159	4.70	168	7.05	175	5.60	125	5.17	269
160	-13.48	154	-20.22	155	-16.80	108	-14.83	254
161	-2.38	152	-3.57	151	-2.57	105	-2.86	251
162	-6.09	146	-9.14	142	-6.41	99	-7.92	243
163	16.79	163	25.19	167	16.60	115	23.51	267
164	3.53	166	5.30	172	4.08	120	4.59	271
165	3.66	170	5.48	178	4.37	124	3.66	275
166	8.62	178	12.94	191	10.69	135	8.62	283
167	-0.96	177	-1.44	189	-1.30	133	-0.96	282
168	1.97	179	2.96	192	2.63	136	2.17	285
169	-15.35	164	-23.03	169	-20.87	115	-15.35	269
170	-6.60	157	-9.90	159	-7.60	107	-7.26	262
171	1.86	159	2.79	162	2.00	109	2.23	264
172	4.39	164	6.59	169	4.81	114	5.27	270
173	6.70	170	10.05	179	7.66	122	7.37	277
174	6.73	177	10.10	189	8.21	130	7.40	284
175	8.11	185	12.16	201	10.56	141	8.92	293
176	7.21	192	14.42	215	10.14	151	7.21	300
177	-4.36	188	-8.72	207	-6.58	144	-4.36	296
178	-5.46	183	-10.92	196	-7.88	136	-6.00	290
179	-3.70	179	-7.40	188	-5.04	131	-4.44	286
180	2.74	182	5.48	194	3.60	135	3.56	289
181	13.97	196	27.93	222	18.85	154	18.15	307
182	-6.26	189	-12.52	209	-9.63	144	-6.26	301
183	3.52	193	7.04	216	5.07	149	3.87	305
184	-2.20	191	-4.40	212	-3.28	146	-2.42	303
185	8.50	199	17.00	229	12.41	158	10.20	313
186	6.48	206	12.96	242	10.26	169	6.48	319
187	-0.56	205	-1.12	241	-0.94	168	-0.56	319
188	7.56	213	15.11	256	12.67	180	8.31	327
189	-17.74	195	-44.35	212	-32.00	148	-17.74	309
190	-6.62	188	-16.55	195	-9.82	139	-7.28	302
191	1.81	190	4.52	199	2.50	141	2.17	304
192	-1.01	189	-2.53	197	-1.43	140	-1.22	303
193	-3.58	186	-8.95	188	-5.00	135	-4.65	298
194	3.43	189	8.57	197	4.62	139	4.80	303
195	3.38	192	8.44	205	4.70	144	4.39	307
196	6.46	199	16.15	221	9.30	153	7.75	315
197	-8.38	190	-20.95	200	-12.84	140	-8.38	307
198	-5.95	184	-14.87	185	-8.35	132	-6.54	300
199	5.38	190	13.44	199	7.10	139	6.45	307
200	14.45	204	36.13	235	20.11	159	17.34	324
days	flat stk	Bank	slow inc	Bank	maria	Bank	Loss +1/10 pt	Bank

re :Option 4.

Can you provide. Total stake and Total return please.

201-260 days

days	flat stk	Bank	slow inc	Bank	maria	Bank	Loss +1/10 pt	Bank
201	-5.03	199	-12.58	222	-8.01	151	-5.03	319
202	-0.00	199	-0.01	222	-0.01	151	-0.00	319
203	8.15	207	20.37	243	12.32	164	8.96	328
204	7.50	215	18.76	261	12.27	176	7.50	335
205	6.07	221	15.17	277	10.67	186	6.07	342
206	1.58	223	3.95	281	2.95	189	1.58	343
207	5.66	228	14.15	295	10.72	200	5.66	349
208	9.31	238	23.27	318	18.63	219	9.31	358
209	-9.18	228	-27.53	290	-20.08	199	-9.18	349
210	10.59	239	31.78	322	21.05	220	11.65	361
211	6.03	245	18.10	340	13.26	233	6.03	367
212	6.64	252	19.93	360	15.48	249	6.64	373
213	-8.04	244	-24.12	336	-19.98	229	-8.04	365
214	-8.18	235	-24.55	312	-18.70	210	-9.00	356
215	-6.41	229	-19.22	292	-13.44	196	-7.69	349
216	7.65	237	22.96	315	15.03	211	9.95	358
217	2.55	239	7.66	323	5.40	217	3.06	362
218	-0.94	238	-2.83	320	-2.05	215	-1.13	360
219	15.53	254	46.59	367	33.35	248	20.19	381
220	-1.18	253	-4.13	363	-2.93	245	-1.18	379
221	15.41	268	53.95	417	37.80	283	16.96	396
222	0.53	269	2.12	419	1.50	284	0.53	397
223	-2.10	266	-8.42	410	-5.99	279	-2.10	395
224	-0.47	266	-1.87	408	-1.30	277	-0.51	394
225	5.31	271	21.25	430	14.73	292	6.37	401
226	2.31	274	9.24	439	6.74	299	2.31	403
227	-21.14	252	-84.57	354	-63.15	236	-21.14	382
228	-5.97	247	-23.86	330	-14.05	221	-7.16	375
229	0.13	247	0.54	331	0.30	222	0.17	375
230	-3.14	244	-12.57	318	-6.97	215	-4.09	371
231	3.27	247	13.07	331	7.02	222	4.57	375
232	11.22	258	44.89	376	24.89	247	14.59	390
233	5.66	264	22.62	399	13.95	261	6.79	397
234	2.64	266	10.57	410	6.89	268	3.17	400
235	7.58	274	30.33	440	20.29	288	9.10	409
236	7.43	281	29.73	470	21.39	309	7.43	416
237	5.20	287	23.41	493	16.08	325	5.20	422
238	5.60	292	25.19	518	18.21	344	5.60	427
239	9.54	302	47.68	566	32.76	376	9.54	437
240	-1.38	300	-7.59	558	-5.19	371	-1.38	435
241	-3.19	297	-17.53	541	-11.82	359	-3.51	432
242	11.90	309	65.45	606	42.75	402	14.28	446
243	-1.17	308	-7.03	599	-4.71	397	-1.17	445
244	2.87	311	17.23	616	11.41	409	3.16	448
245	-0.92	310	-5.53	611	-3.76	405	-0.92	447
246	-2.40	307	-14.40	596	-9.72	395	-2.64	445
247	0.53	308	3.16	600	2.08	397	0.63	445
248	1.69	310	10.11	610	6.70	404	2.02	447
249	-15.77	294	-94.61	515	-63.71	340	-17.35	430
250	2.68	296	16.06	531	9.11	349	3.21	433
251	-0.78	296	-4.69	527	-2.73	347	-0.94	432
252	10.45	306	62.70	589	36.23	383	13.59	446
253	0.27	306	1.62	591	1.03	384	0.32	446
254	4.27	311	25.63	616	16.40	400	5.13	451
255	8.47	319	50.82	667	33.91	434	8.47	460
256	-5.47	314	-35.54	632	-23.74	411	-5.47	454
257	-10.42	303	-67.71	564	-42.76	368	-11.46	443
258	1.49	305	9.66	574	5.46	373	1.78	445
259	0.56	305	3.64	577	2.09	375	0.67	445
260	4.39	310	28.56	606	16.49	392	5.27	450
days	flat stk	Bank	slow inc	Bank	maria	Bank	Loss +1/10 pt	Bank
max	33.29	319	65.45	667	42.75	434	79.89	460
min	-21.14	50	-94.61	50	-63.71	59	-27.64	33

Conclusion: Maria's Staking system is the best.

repeat:- Total stake and return data, required

Sorry facts, you'll have to wait for that if I get the time, but I'd guess its the same return for flat stakes, which is poor anyway.

Time ? This is basic data which should be recorded - and therefore at your fingertips !

this was probably the biggest pitch of your life.

and you dont have anything at your fingertips [>o]

IM OUT

Facts. I'm winning less than a point a day at level stakes (average 30 bets per day), thats all I care about. All I asked was a simple question, give me a staking system that can improve on that.  According to you if I continue doing the same level stakes betting I will fail in the long run.' because I'm sure to get a random sequence of winner/losers that will bankrupt me.  Thanks for that.

So why should I bother to give you more data when they all fail?

IM OUT

Greg Riddance

alpha,

good luck mate

Level stakes are the best plan. I believe my comments were aimed at staking plans that  went up/down on winning/losing sequences

30 pts staked daily with

seriously you are making 1pt a day roughly and your not happy?

need a
staking plan
for laying at
2.5-
3.5
prices
any ideas?
level stakes
not making
enough

From the results so far, it looks as I would need more than a 100 point bank to start. Will probably upload all the figures to my Blog at a later date.

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So much for my 'system', went back 3 years then realised why I had left it alone.



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imho simple is best....

Have a betting bank of 100 points (your unit per point at your discretion)...

back 2units per pick maximum consistently....

i.e you have 50 losing bets before you have to replenish your betting bank....

If/when your betting bank is 200 points....

increase the unit bet to 4 units.....

i.e you again have potential for 50 losing bets....

If/when your bank gets to 400 points...increase to 8 units.....

i.e you again have potential for 50 losing bets...

etc etc....

The hardest part is sticking to it when you are WINNING.....if you can you will build consistently and steadily....

Also important imho to have a target daily/weekly/monthly NET profit/income you want to attain and work towards that...

so your telling us its no good?

Well anyone starting at day 475 with a bank of 300 points would have lost it at day 972 at level stakes.  The other staking systems  (excepting Maria) would have lost their bank even earlier. Its just luck that I started from day 1 and had added enough to my bank to survive.  But then again if I stopped at 1000 profit with Maria...

I might
have ended
up writing
like this.

Worcester, thanks for your input, I might need to replenish my bank in the naps competition, I'm following Postdata's nap, 42 losers so far and I'm bottom of the table.

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Each yellow column is the Total P/L after 1200 days with 28 variations (price and stop/loss) of the same system.
Level Stakes average profit in points = 285 points
Increase Level stakes at Profit total = 364 points
Maria Staking system average profit = 688 points

Thanks for the suggestions and advice, draw you own conclusions...

Already had thanks.

Just to remind me, Facts, your conclusions were besides it will fail in the long run ...

Level stakes betting is the only way, anything else incorporates chasing

So I should be happy with an average of 285 points profit after 1200 days.

and you also agreed with...

Staking plans are generally BS.

I hope that you weren't referring to Level Stakes as that's a BS STAKING PLAN.

Retrospectively, you can always jig them (ie backfit) so that you have bigger bets on your winners, and smaller ones on your losers, and then make out they're the secret to success. But they ain't.

So I didn't bother retrospectively showing results from the system with maidens or Group 1 or WLTO selections removed because that's backfitting.


If you're good at picking, you'll make a profit without a staking plan. If you're not, you won't. A staking plan won't turn you from a losing punter into a winning one, or vice versa.

Let me refer you to a thread that has been 'successfully' going for more than a year. This is my chart from my blog 'Cutting out the Middleman' representing a STAKING PLAN on losing punters from the thread.

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So much for it 'won't turn you from a losing punter into a winning one, or vice versa.

If you're good, then just gradually increase your stake as your bank grows.

Well, I can't be 'good' for even though the BS STAKING PLAN above increased my average profit to 364 points, I lost 3 banks of 100 points.


I should have invested in gold and silver instead.