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Could anyone tell me if they have ever tried laying all newspaper tipsters? would this create profit as they are so bad or would the difference in odds at sp make it not work?
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tried it, but BF sp makes it very hard to do.
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What about if the odds are under 10? then they will be closer to recorded sp wont they?
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Place lay Alan Keyte
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what?
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be more selective,lay all adrian cook's selections win and place-couldn't tip his hat.
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You could paper trade it for a period and see how it goes .Would like to know how it goes.I think in the racing post you will find a figure daily for the most napped by these tipsters,havent checked lately but think it is normally minus 30 pts or so on an annual basis.
If you are into laying you may find ANYONE FANCY A LAY A DAY thread useful,it is organised by KNIGHT COMMANDER. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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but seriously all newspaper tipsters are very bad would it create profit laying them all or are odds too different to recorded sp?
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The Guardian (No name specified) -£32,779 -£2,452
The Telegraph (Malborough) -£38,649 -£10,432 The Sun (Templegate) -£42,746 -£10,657 The Times (Rob Wright) -£38,627 -£11,224 Postdata (Racing Post) () -£42,672 -£13,638 The Mail (Robin Goodfellow) -£40,883 -£14,378 The Express (Computerman) -£50,068 -£22,829 The Star (Tony Lewis) -£52,505 -£23,733 The Mirror (Newsboy) -£53,056 -£23,965 The Irish Independent () -£55,767 -£25,317 Racing Post Ratings () -£55,349 -£30,469 Spotlight (Racing Post) () -£62,384 -£34,734 The Irish Times () -£69,040 -£44,230 This is one years results at **** prices on the right! but they record back prices, so say laying a horse at 30 recorded on here maybe 35 to lay | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Whilst it doesn't change the fact they are "very bad" and if it makes you money laying their selections then good luck to you but newspaper tipsters really are on a hiding to nothing really.
There are so many factors that you need to take into account, such as they have to pick a selection in every race (we don't) the paper is printed the night before so they are giving their selections hours before the race starts and for Sunday racing over 24 hours before for some papers and in that time anything could happen. They might have narrowed it down to 2 runners and gone for one that ends up a NR and their other choice wins. Ground changes and jockey changes are a factor too. I horse might get worked up pre-race but the tipster is already committed with their selections. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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my arguement is, is that yes I know they are bad at tipping but I dont think I would get the same results due to the outsiders being laid at a much higher price than they record the back price even when they record **** price. Do you think this would work if I laid tips upto say 10 in odds?
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If every single newspaper tipster tipped HAWK WING for the guineas and it was 9/4 - would you lay it even if you think its an even money shot .
These easy systems are worthless . Only lay if the price is too short , thats the only way . END OF | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Maybe stay away from big races, especially on a saturday as they probably have put more effort into it.
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The point is even if all tipsters tip a horse overall they all lose money longterm if all selections are laid. My question is my results wouldnt be the same as the ones they record even though they are recorded as ****. sp. as the back price they record is lower than the lay price especially on the higher odds horses. But if I was to lay all their selections upto 10 in odds, does anyone think I would make profit?
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kirsty -- I can guarantee you 100% NO . The band of horses you are laying is to random , put some hard work min and you will reap the benefits
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But the results say YES they do lose lots of money. Check this out please and tell me what you think:
http://www.besttipping.com/****tipcheck/?action=allcompare | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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got no time -- just got the nod
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kirsty85, It looks appealing, but this subject, and many versions/permutations of it has been done to death over the years. None make a profit at BF SP.
Mechanical systems do not work at horse racing. Have a look at the Adrian Massey site, and Flatstats. you could save yourself a lot of grief. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Have you seen this site http://www.besttipping.com the newspaper results are recorded to etdaq(b) prices and still lose alot of money from backing
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The purple place, is a "bookies benefit" site, no liquidity either. But what do I know about price/probability/win ratio's and laying a single (or worse 2 or 3)horse in a race. I'll leave you to it, good luck.
Don't forget to factor in comission. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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commission. *
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kirsty,
why not tweak this a little and lay jockeys instead,cap it at sub 10-1,and see what u get.. they all make a minus trade over a season. mccoy,johnson,walsh etc | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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you would probally be better laying all the ones over 10/1
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Unless you know exactly what you are doing you will lose by laying. Following unsuccessful tipsters to lay is not the way to make money either. Just because they might lose 30-40 pointa over a period, and unless you can lay their selections at the same price as you would have backed them, you will lose in the medium to long term.
I do make money from laying, but it is hard work, and i have had to find out the best way to do it over a number of years. Just remember you can back on BF at good prices, but you will lay at prices way over the normal odds. Good layers work hard on finding selections, just as good backers do, and just because only one horse in a race can win, does not mean it is easy to find a loser! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Whenever a tipster from a regular daily newspaper or the sporting ones tip a high priced winner or the winner of a big race, then they are the first to highlight this in a look-at-how-clever-our-tipsters-are kind of way but what they fail to point out is that they might have half a dozen tipsters giving selections and it's the scatter-gun approach, fire off enough ammo and you're bound to hit the target eventually.
Going by the Daily Mirror for example they have Newsboy, Bouverie, Newmarket Best, Nothern's Nap, Speedhorse, Topspot, SF, F, EW and Spotform. Now if all or some give a selection in a particular race then there's a good chance one of them will give the winner and I expect if I or you had that many selections in a race then there's a good chance we could find the winner too. So how about either crossing out every selection in a race that your paper of choice gives and then laying from whichever runners are left or pick yourself as many selections as their tipsters do in each race, eliminate them and then again lay from the remaining runners in the field. Even if you were to then lay the remaining shortest priced non-tipster selected runner then there's still a very high chance the winner will come from a runner already selected by one of the tipsters anyway, but should the shortest priced non-tipster selected runner win, the fact that it's the shortest priced won't be too damaging and so just take it on the chin and move on to the next race. Aren't I nice, I've not ever tried to charge for this or start one of those free trial threads based on using my newspapers selections?  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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kirsty85
This thread is a good example of how useless it is to ask for advice on here. The only way is to test your idea yourself with real money over a sufficient period of time. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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im still non the wiser lol, i think i will test under 10.0 as they are closer odds to the recorded ones.
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try the rp football tipsters at the weekend. always have a look at saturdays paper on the sunday morning.if they get 1 out of 8 selections correct theyve had a good week
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think saturday is probly the best day to lay newspaper tips the ones that sell like the racingpost sun etc easy $$$
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Hang on there Kirsty, you're just about to cut out the only section that is worth laying ! Full stat report from 1st May to date below fyi:
----------------------------- 1 May 2010 to 2 November 2010 ----------------------------- W-R SR% LLR 100% SP Overall 5.2 3001-21981 14% 28 +£3755 -£34885 1/20 to 10/11 1 279-481 58% 6 -£34 -£1535 Evs to 2/1 1 562-1548 36% 15 +£574 -£3413 85/40 to 3/1 1 538-2063 26% 17 +£1946 -£2473 10/3 to 4/1 1 412-2156 19% 29 +£111 -£4581 9/2 to 5/1 1 312-1868 17% 29 +£2210 -£1318 11/2 to 7/1 1 343-2816 12% 51 +£180 -£4729 15/2 to 10/1 2 294-3340 9% 52 +£183 -£5435 11/1 to 16/1 2 167-3387 5% 125 -£1789 -£7037 18/1 to 33/1 2 76-2817 3% 179 -£136 -£3690 40/1 to 1000 2 18-1505 1% 203 +£510 -£674 1 2 608-4657 13% 46 +£2314 -£6000 2 1 309-2130 15% 57 -£1631 -£5695 3 1 228-1177 19% 36 +£2040 -£388 4 1 207-917 23% 19 +£900 -£1145 5 1 127-499 25% 18 +£347 -£849 6 1 92-349 26% 12 -£432 -£1306 7 1 80-262 31% 9 +£125 -£607 8 1 49-145 34% 8 -£162 -£560 9 1 52-129 40% 8 +£317 -£32 10 1 34-74 46% 7 -£10 -£232 11 1 34-61 56% 4 +£270 +£85 12 1 16-35 46% 3 -£361 -£476 13 1 5-7 71% 2 +£38 +£19 SP Edge refers to board prices, so ignore unless you are a licensed bookmaker as many have posted above, there is no mileage in news tips imo hth | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Majority of newspaper tipsters will select approx 45% of tissue favs. This is because it is impossible for them to cover all races in detail so they will be governed by the price quoted and often go for the second fav if the fav is at prohibited odds. Therefore by following of selections as quoted you will at times get 1/2 selections in a race max. which over a period of time will lead to a loss due to inflated BF odds you will have to lay and the high % of losing bets. Suggest you stick to 4/5 tipsters who are out of recent form as they like us will achieve results in clumps i.e if they are capable of winning 50% they will not achieve it win / loss/ win /loss etc. Also limiting your selections to under BF odds of 10 will greatly reduce your % of winners.
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Thanks for the replies all, ok all I know is that bestipping.com shows 60k loss for a year with all the tipsters and thats at etdaq(b)prices. I know that the prices of say 30 will be recorded lower than the lay side so 30 on the back side might be 35 to lay because of no liquid. But even if I can make half of 60k Ill be more than happy. Please tell me your thoughts. Thanks
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All cumulative totals to win £10 by laying selection at BSP.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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...and that's just the RP naps table with a BACKING Loss of over £10,000 @ SP (£10 stake).
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So if the naps are losing 10k to 10 pound stakes, I really cant see me losing if I lay all the newspaper tips especially when they have to tip every race.
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Kirsty - Tightfisted's table should make you think more than twice about risking too much money in your venture. Good luck.
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most i would lay all day , i used to monitor most , and only found one worth its salt with regards to my main bets in the place market
todays results were catt 3/6 placed ( 2 won ) kemp 4/6 placed ( 3 won ) exet 4/7 placed (3 won ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I agree hello. If I lay all 12 newspaper tipsters, I really cant see more than 2 making profit for the year even at betfair prices. It cant fail can it?
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Spotlight (Racing Post) () -£62,384 -£34,734
Is the totals to a £50 stake? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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that is to 50 pound stakes yes but 10 pound stakes would be around 60k loss with all tipsters used
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