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Maybe I'm being stupid, but having backed Quevega at Cheltenham, I've laid her and Mourad today in the belief that they could both be outstayed by one or two of the proven 3 milers. 4-6 the field against the Mullins pair strikes me as being a reasonable bet.
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bensalem for me here. got plenty of time for quevega but i agree that the trip is a worry.
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Yes, I like Bensalem a bit as well.
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Just because a horse has not run over a trip does not mean it won't stay, can be a dangerous reason to use to lay with.
Look at Planet Of Sound yesterday. Quevega & Mourad both are young enough and improving, so there is no reason either won't stay. Saying all that Powerstation ew :p |
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nice quick ground showed planet of sound didn't need to have proven itself at three mile yesterday to get the trip.
i believe a repeat of yesterday and a non three mile horse can do it again. got on nobel prince yesterday but worried now its drifted. also backed berties dream. felt both should be sub 10-1 shots easily. we shall see. probably quevega can win but she isn't value at 7-2 and so she is a no bet. |
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downallstar, it's all about value isn't it? I don't know whether or not Quevega will stay, but being a free running sort, I think that it's more likely that she wont. On official ratings she doesn't have much in hand of several PROVEN stayers and that's the substance of my bet.
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Think Bensalem is a crazy price. Solid EW bet
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Jessie's Dream is a horse I've been following for a while now, and have been waiting for it to appear in a race like this over Good or better ground. Gordon Elliott although recently has been in dire form has turned the corner and sent out two winners yesterday. Although the horse is unproven over 3m, I think the step up in trip and return to hurdles will suit. This lightly raced horse beat Noble Prince by 5 lenths in soft going last April, yet is almost twice the price today. After reading the post this morning and seeing that Pricewise had tipped it, I thought the value would have gone so was pleasantly surprised on returning home to see there was plently available at 32/1.
Jessie's Dream @ 32/1 e/w |
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muirhead for a place.. been ongreat form not sure if he can make the front but surely in with a good chance of a place
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this thread was for yesterdays 5:30.
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5:30 - Punchestown
15 Quevega 5/2 F 2 Bensalem 10/1 14 Mourad 11/2 There we go. finished. |