Fathom Five

sounds good, tempted but on a 1 bet a day routine, good luck with it though!

Looked long and hard at this one.
Chris Wall is not very good with his long break runners in hcps at this time of year.

Of his 6 such winners between March-May from 1994 four were aged 4 or 5 yrs.

Narrowing down to his sprint runners (5-6fur) he has had only two winners with Royal Rock and Fathom Spirit.

Checking back he has only had one horse that has won twice in a handicap coming back from a long break - Admirals Secret over 12f 1995 &1998 at ages 6yo & 9yo.

Taking all this into account Fathom Spirit, who is trainers only 3yo+ hcp race winner at Epsom - and his only 5f winner at the track, is very unlikely to repeat his win sucess today.

But you have to take the Epsom factor into account as some of them do repeat their wins at this sprinters track as David Nicholls has shown.

I'm on EW already. Can't see Fathom Five out of the first 3.

Pinza, don't you think you are over cooking the stats on this one?

Of five runnings of this race, Chris Wall has won twice from two attempts, both times with horses coming back from a break.

That for me overrides any other anecdotal evidence. The odds suggest you are far more likely to be right than me but I am willing to take a chance at the odds.

Thanks Muqbil.
Database checked and data missing 20/4/06 to 01/05/06
Zowington was missing winner you are correct.
Human error.

I will stick by my assumption though based on another factor - that you may recall is in my database

Do you think he needs good ground of softer? Looking at the comments before last years race his trainer said, "It was his first start for us and although we have been missing the target recently somebody backed him. He has done it nicely and he is a very nice horse who has slipped to a competitive mark. He has been working well and he will be entered for the Dash now , but as he likes a bit of cut, the ground will be a factor."

coin of the realm for me - 4th in this last year. later won over CD -ryan moore booked

It does seem like more or less good ground on the sprint course according to the turftrax map. A few bits of fast ground.

Im all over this beast

sorry wrong race

Ground won't be an excuse,beaten only 2l on gf at track off higher mark.

These are my factors

Admirals Secret(USA) 4 2.75 31/10/1994
Leading Spirit(IRE) 0 5.00 04/08/1995
Almasi(IRE) 3 4.50 15/06/1996
Almasi(IRE) 4 4.00 04/07/1996
Ailincala (IRE) 1 2.00 06/08/2003
another 0 22/11/2003
another 3 3.30 30/03/2007
DUBAI DIVA 4 8-11 16-Nov-09
WAKE UP CALL 3 6-5 25-Nov-09

1 win 3 places from 9 runners

fathom five looks an decent ew chance but race could be set up for indian trail though will probably only lead if at all with 25yds to go

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

Got that wrong
Well done winners

Pinza - perhaps a break is needed, you need to go on a Bold Adventure.

well done tho i think frankie should have been closer- bad ride

Penzance, thank you very much. I took your advice.

wrong race but right result :)

NAGS TO RICHES 21 Apr 13:55


coin of the realm for me - 4th in this last year. later won over CD -ryan moore booked

great tip penzance! good price aswell , wd