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20 Apr 10
23:11
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Date Joined:
27 Sep 03
OK, 7:40 Brig today
Scruffy Skip - he finished 2nd.
I had this horse down as a no-hoper (no laughing at the back) because of the following:
He has a block of dist and course/going runs (26-Apr-09 to 20-Oct-09) and best he ever did in hcaps was to finish 2nd by 2L off 52 (only win is a seller) and that was good awhile ago. Compared to today's run of 58 he appears to not have a hope because he's up in OR and weight on every run.
Last three runs have produced 2nd * 2 and a win off ORs of 47 to 51, but they've also all been at STH - and I thought the vastly improved results were all down to the course.
Today, back on Gd-Frm going and he comes 2nd..... now I know his last 3 runs have also involved running with cheekpieces on but is his improved form really all down to those!? On his previous runs he'd worn blinkers and visors so they'd tried similar headgear.
Are cheekpieces really so different from blinkers/visors that they can bring about this sort of improvement?
ta
off for a bath now - I'll check back later.
Scruffy Skip - he finished 2nd.
I had this horse down as a no-hoper (no laughing at the back) because of the following:
He has a block of dist and course/going runs (26-Apr-09 to 20-Oct-09) and best he ever did in hcaps was to finish 2nd by 2L off 52 (only win is a seller) and that was good awhile ago. Compared to today's run of 58 he appears to not have a hope because he's up in OR and weight on every run.
Last three runs have produced 2nd * 2 and a win off ORs of 47 to 51, but they've also all been at STH - and I thought the vastly improved results were all down to the course.
Today, back on Gd-Frm going and he comes 2nd..... now I know his last 3 runs have also involved running with cheekpieces on but is his improved form really all down to those!? On his previous runs he'd worn blinkers and visors so they'd tried similar headgear.
Are cheekpieces really so different from blinkers/visors that they can bring about this sort of improvement?
ta
off for a bath now - I'll check back later.
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had won off 64 on the a/w so capable on this mark even if no turf form on this OR
Brighton is a specialist course. a win and 2 seconds previously counts for a lot
Has a fitness edge at this time of year with his recent runs
factor these in maybe he runs slightly above his mark.
Brighton is a specialist course. a win and 2 seconds previously counts for a lot
Has a fitness edge at this time of year with his recent runs
factor these in maybe he runs slightly above his mark.
or, more to the point, the competition run below theirs
I too don't know why he was running off a 58 turf rating tbh, however his best distance does seem to be 7 furlongs and is a course winner there.
On my ratings he put up his best performance last time and has produced very high ratings (for him) over todays course. Was worth a second look at least.
thanks dontwin...
and as soon as I'd typed all that in I realised he was one of the few to have plc form at C+D+G!
I think I have a huge mental block of focusing more on "well he didn't win off 52 so he hasn't got a hope in hell off 58" rather than focusing on "he's one of the few to have CDG plc form".
tomorrow is another day ....
and as soon as I'd typed all that in I realised he was one of the few to have plc form at C+D+G!
I think I have a huge mental block of focusing more on "well he didn't win off 52 so he hasn't got a hope in hell off 58" rather than focusing on "he's one of the few to have CDG plc form".
tomorrow is another day ....
Saddo - thank you for your kind offer, but I've got a long-handled brush :-)
GreatL was 53, I think dontwin is looking at the seller win off 46 and he's transposed the digits
just checked the post - you're correct :) The Sporting Life have it wrong however
Fitness advantage and wouldn't be backing this to often on turf,but its swell form is consistent and clocked up reasonable time three races ago.Should win another race at that venue.
thanks theG
so would you say I'm wrong (well I certainly was in this case...) to take the approach of:
"well he didn't win off 52 so he hasn't got a hope in hell off 58"
whereas I should have thought
"he's one of the few to have CDG plc form and his recent form is excellent".
so would you say I'm wrong (well I certainly was in this case...) to take the approach of:
"well he didn't win off 52 so he hasn't got a hope in hell off 58"
whereas I should have thought
"he's one of the few to have CDG plc form and his recent form is excellent".
You wouldn't be thinking it had no chance but loking at previous form you wouldn't be backing it either,that run from that mark at this stage of the season will probably be its best.
As opposed to the bold diva run at swell,that day the standard time of its 7f race was quicker than the two 6f races with similar rated horses.Looked a certainty next time out came second then won its penultimate run.
As opposed to the bold diva run at swell,that day the standard time of its 7f race was quicker than the two 6f races with similar rated horses.Looked a certainty next time out came second then won its penultimate run.
With it being Brighton I would of taken more notice of the course form, also good recent form is always a plus. His rating wouldn't of bothered me so much as he had improved form.
If you were going to back it,the last two runs but tonight were it fair chance of wnning at swell again.
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