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moscow.flyer
18 Apr 10 23:12
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Date Joined: 24 Nov 09
| Topic/replies: 1,278 | Blogger: moscow.flyer's blog
Would bookies lose money on races that offer ew odds of 1/5 if they offered 1/4, is it greedy or needy?
Pause Switch to Standard View Serious question for EW Punters
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Report lukehart April 18, 2010 11:14 PM BST
About a £10 Million a year
Report moscow.flyer April 18, 2010 11:15 PM BST
I mean and individual race, would the overround be under 100% or something?
Report Chompy_imo April 18, 2010 11:15 PM BST
It would cost the industry £100m, same as everything else costs they'm
Report infomaniac April 18, 2010 11:16 PM BST
Is this a new system ?!
Report journalist April 18, 2010 11:17 PM BST
Systerns are for loosers flushing they're money away imo !
Report moscow.flyer April 18, 2010 11:18 PM BST
Im not talking about the industry as a whole! If I was a bookie and I offered 1/4 odds in every race with the odd exceptional type races would I be in the red after a 1000 races?
Report lukehart April 18, 2010 11:18 PM BST
nice read for you informaniac
A day in the life of a Greyhoind,
Report lukehart April 18, 2010 11:21 PM BST
mosco you would lose to all the arbers who would find at least 20 horses that are 1/5 on betfair so @ 1/4 they would get plenty off you.
Report oil April 18, 2010 11:22 PM BST
Any luck today infomaniac?
Report W11 April 18, 2010 11:28 PM BST
Cc

do pros bet E/W? if yes what is the shortest price they will back E/W
Report W11 April 18, 2010 11:28 PM BST
Cu
Report infomaniac April 18, 2010 11:32 PM BST
Hello oil,

had a day out (was dragged out) on some steam trains,

won a few quid on snooker frame betting on my return.
Report adge April 18, 2010 11:34 PM BST
wc11
in my experience 5/2
Report lukehart April 18, 2010 11:37 PM BST
W11take a look at the races were they bet evens 2/1 10 bar

Some of the 2/1 chances are great earners, when you can trade out both win and place.
but some of these type make brilliant each way Double,'
Report dukeofpuke April 18, 2010 11:38 PM BST
i backed kauto star at 5-6 ew in the gold cup
Report Tex AxiLe April 18, 2010 11:39 PM BST
I think the term in the trade is " mug fleecing ".. or " fleecing mugs" .. cant remember which.
Report W11 April 18, 2010 11:40 PM BST
What does a 2/1 2/1 place double pay at 1/4 odds
Report lukehart April 18, 2010 11:41 PM BST
I can not understand people who will bet 1/2 on a horse to win but turn there noes up for a 5/2 chance that can be traded out at 2.95 but 1.30 a place
Report lukehart April 18, 2010 11:42 PM BST
£225 returns
Report Chris B April 18, 2010 11:43 PM BST
Unfortunately lukehart, it's the "traders" like you who make life difficult for anyone who actually wants to place an each way bet to get more than a tenner on.
Report oil April 18, 2010 11:43 PM BST
Good show infomaniac. I won 90 for the day, (2 lays and 2 backs). Happy enough. gl for tomorrow.

PS I hope that blaggard zebedei doesn't turn up!!
Report W11 April 18, 2010 11:43 PM BST
For £100 e/w double?
Report W11 April 18, 2010 11:45 PM BST
Cu what is Chris B on about?
Report lukehart April 18, 2010 11:45 PM BST
Chris B what have my bets got to do with your bets do you propose that I dont bet because tr may harm your chances, ,
Report Chris B April 18, 2010 11:48 PM BST
It's a free country, you can do what you like lukehart. My point though is that it's people trying to get lumps on each way simply because they can make a guaranteed profit by trading, rather than wanting a bet to let it run, who cause the heavy restrictions imposed by the off course firms.
Report lukehart April 18, 2010 11:50 PM BST
w11 yes a £100 Eachway double

But by taking the win double out of the bet you are having a £100 at 5/4 a 4/7 chance in many instances,
Report W11 April 18, 2010 11:52 PM BST
Cu

Call me thick but how do you take the win part out?
Report W11 April 18, 2010 11:52 PM BST
Cu

Call me thick but how do you take the win part out?
Report Chris B April 18, 2010 11:52 PM BST
As an example, how many people backed Tricky Trickster each way at 20/1 in the Gold Cup or Possol at Aintree simply so they could arb it on here?
Report lukehart April 18, 2010 11:53 PM BST
sorry chris i don't agree Bookmakers will still restrict a punter with his £100 Each way Double but in Birmingham there are 12 shops with in 1 mile radius, so a £20 x 12 is enough for most people.
Report spirito April 18, 2010 11:55 PM BST
I dont understand why a punter would want to back @5-2 then lay it @2-1 then pay a dividend to betfair?
Report hello :-) April 18, 2010 11:58 PM BST
i have much to learn from the old skool
Report lukehart April 19, 2010 12:00 AM BST
w11 you must see that in many cases were they bet say 4/6 2/1 the 2/1 chance shortens to 7/4 on many occasions, as it is the main liability of the the Bookmakers ]
If you have accounts with the guaranteed Bookmakers you can have a £100 Eachway double at 2/1 x 2/1 and take £100 out of the first and £300 out of the second you are left with a brilliant place double at massive odds. with a chance that now and again one could drift giving you a bunus on the win double
Report lukehart April 19, 2010 12:01 AM BST
spirto of course at 5% no one would play but at 2% it is a different matter
Report W11 April 19, 2010 12:04 AM BST
i still dont get it once you have had the £100 e/w double total stake £200 what do you do then?
Report lukehart April 19, 2010 12:16 AM BST
Every man will do it differently

I would want at 2/1
have a £400 to £200 and lay a £300 to £200 Win
have a £100 to £200 and lay a £50 to £200 place .1/4 odds Place place will the tax be, £8.
So my bet is
£150 to £4 win for nothing
£50 to £4 a place. nothing
Report spirito April 19, 2010 12:17 AM BST
Lukehart, I fully understand the maths, but, over a period of time, the law of averages makes the lay back less attractive. I can see the security factor. However over a period Betfair will clear 2% while you clear 4.6%, based on the 5-2 back 2-1 lay.Over a period by not laying back you would get6.6% margin
Report lukehart April 19, 2010 12:19 AM BST
if you wish you can take the £4 out of the win and £4 out of the place to be on the bet for nothing or the 5% if you are on the bigger bracket
Report Johnny Wad April 19, 2010 12:23 AM BST
serious question to any arbers ..... do you iron your underpants?
Report lukehart April 19, 2010 12:23 AM BST
reply I fully understand the % but the long run principal can be very worrying, at my age,

I would hate to have a massive run against and then find that you cant get anything on or the terms are changed.
I lke to take the stress out of my business but every man to what he likes best.
Report wallis April 19, 2010 12:24 AM BST
Im going to join W in the thick and unitiated camp here , but Lukehart , the two bets that you are laying (the 300 to 200 and the 50 to 200) are they in running bets that you are talking about. In other words , you are relying on the horse to perform reasonably well ?
Report spirito April 19, 2010 12:25 AM BST
The only way arbing is of any use is if the backer has a cash flow problem. I suspect a huge amout of this practice takes place, however the real big winner is the exchanges ?
Report lukehart April 19, 2010 12:30 AM BST
Jhny lololol I love people who are great gamblers and good luck to you.##

but arbing is now part of the industry like it or not.

I would like to take you to the countrys bigest soccer arbur, who is in the 1£m bracket, to see him trade with 30 accounts open all at once makes me feel things have changed my friend.

Also the biggest Cricket trader from here to Dabia would make your hair curl and can he can afford to wear 3 new pairs of pants a day
Report spirito April 19, 2010 12:32 AM BST
I can't see the underpants argument, as this would only apply to those betting above their means,or those will rather small conkers. As for the life expectancy argument- these plays are pretty regular i imagine else the reward would not match the effort.
Report lukehart April 19, 2010 12:36 AM BST
Wallis the bet I gave was hypothetical
What I like best and was the Principal behind the thread was to bet EW and turn the bet into a place only wager at great odds.
a double and even a teble is multiply the place advantage you have by 3. and that can be a extraordinary value
Report spirito April 19, 2010 12:37 AM BST
Yes you are 100% correct Lukehart
Report lukehart April 19, 2010 12:41 AM BST
I well therefore turn the argument into a simplicity

I know of only 1 big better who is getting the type of money that the known great arbers are getting.
The others are In running players

there are obviously many more but for a man to win with nothing going for him only his opinion then good luck
Report spirito April 19, 2010 12:41 AM BST
Thats one angle i would agree on.each way value with most high street bookmakers is at an all time high. Based on the competition of post race price incentives. Created buy exchanges and internet betting. We are living in a gambling world that offers the punter easy pickings
Report sofiakenny April 19, 2010 12:43 AM BST
ew thieves wil rule the world..how is mr lucky?..ty luke
Report wallis April 19, 2010 12:45 AM BST
Thank you lukehart for answering the question , but even though the scenario is hypothetical , is the second lays in both cases done in running ? Therefore there is still the risk that something goes wrong early on in a race. If that is correct , does it really constitute an arb if I am right and you need at least some sort of performance from the horse ?

Or am I barking up the wrong tree ?
Report spirito April 19, 2010 12:47 AM BST
Lukehart, in your opinion, does the lack of availability, on the exchanges pre race indicate that layers are getting fleeced by smart backers? I think it's a worrying trend.
Report spirito April 19, 2010 12:48 AM BST
It's just as well your a multi tasker Lukehart, are you wearing knickers or underpants?
Report sofiakenny April 19, 2010 12:49 AM BST
spirito..get to bed or i will heve to tell your daddy
Report spirito April 19, 2010 12:51 AM BST
lolol you know my Daddy? I am 28 you know.
Report lukehart April 19, 2010 12:53 AM BST
he big players do not bet before the last perod, and are so powerful they can make it stand in its head.
Ive been told there are no more than 8 players who are dominating 70% of the turnover.

Jist like they did in the 1950/70.
Report sofiakenny April 19, 2010 12:53 AM BST
dont know him personally..but in his favour he was one of us good guys against those horrible bookies.
Report spirito April 19, 2010 12:54 AM BST
He will be tucked up in bed, poor old man, he had a big day out today.He did ask me to send a message about Hannons 2yo in the 2nd race @ Windsor. But not which one!
Report sofiakenny April 19, 2010 12:56 AM BST
lol..it aint brain science is it....hate seeing fallers ..especially in hurdles..poor mackoy..poor 1-7 fav :)
Report spirito April 19, 2010 12:56 AM BST
Thank you all for your company, most interesting. Goodnight x
Report lukehart April 19, 2010 12:57 AM BST
I Read IF by Rudyard Kypling and what a lot of balox that was.

Do you honestly believe that braveness is the way to successful gambling.
Report sofiakenny April 19, 2010 12:59 AM BST
telly savalas got 2 number 1 with that bilge....stay well luke.
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