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I posted this one when it last ran at Doncaster. Came 5th at 66.0 (33/1 sp). I said at the time 'Lets see if Webber can now place it for a win'. He has it in this conditional jockeys hurdle (SP Jones 0 from 8 last 2 wks). The stable form is ok 1st, 2nd and 3rd last couple of days. Nichols and Pipe have runners with Jocks (Schofield and Farrelly) to be respected. The reason I posted it last time was because Hugh Taylor had tipped it up for a flat race at Wolves where it travelled ok but seemed to me to be 'getting fit'. I have watched the Donny race several times. It travelled well for long periods but jumped big, losing momentum. Today could be the day and the Pipe/Nichols entries will ensure a good price. I may be wrong but for me its worth a w/p punt.
I also note The Brimmer, who owes us nothing after last weeks run, is out again with an extra 7lb for the win and a futher 6f to travel. I do not agree with Timeforms comments:
Steadily progressive over hurdles this term, winning 17f novice handicap at Exeter last time. Step up to this trip a bit of a worry, though, as he was too keen over 2½m on penultimate start.
The distance was nothing to do with his being too keen over 2 1/2 miles, so I'm not too worried about that. I think it will get the distance as it happily bowled along in front and made all last time. I'm more worried about me being sentimentel. w/p again and a double the two.
Thoughts appreciated.
I also note The Brimmer, who owes us nothing after last weeks run, is out again with an extra 7lb for the win and a futher 6f to travel. I do not agree with Timeforms comments:
Steadily progressive over hurdles this term, winning 17f novice handicap at Exeter last time. Step up to this trip a bit of a worry, though, as he was too keen over 2½m on penultimate start.
The distance was nothing to do with his being too keen over 2 1/2 miles, so I'm not too worried about that. I think it will get the distance as it happily bowled along in front and made all last time. I'm more worried about me being sentimentel. w/p again and a double the two.
Thoughts appreciated.
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The Brimmer is a non-runner apparently.
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Yep. NR.
Just Erdeli then. Thoughts please? |
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Doncaster form is not too bad.
Erdeli was 10l behind overturn at Donny. Overturn now rated 130 and due to go up further for Scottish Champion Hurdle win yesterday! Rokinhirsescience was 8th yesterday beaten by 15.5l over 2m4f. this one is entered tomorrow over 2m5f at kempton. trip and track may suit this one more, if he takes his chance in it. Shadrack was 2.25l behind Erdeli at Donnyand rated 4lb superior but due to jocks claim was able to race off 1lb lower. This one has won off off 103 and is now rated 114. Woodcraft ran a stinker on friday in uttox. however the hereford race he finished 2nd has also thrown up a lot of winners (1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th i think have all won since) 3rd run back from long break should have this one fitter now and looks to have some bit of an e/w chance |
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Thanks le stelle,
I'm definitely doing it and will decide how much nearer the time. |
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i think he would be shorter if he was with a bigger stable!
main danger is the fav though. looks to hold watergate easily on formlines through Zen Factor race at huntingdon. watergate may improve for better ground but looks to have a stiff enough mark for what he has achieved. also not sure about a 4yo against the elders. exulto is closely matched to zen factor but may need further but cant dismiss as stable is in decent form. ardmaddy surely needs further than this. few others are interesting but may not quite be good enough today. gl with this one |
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Have just watched the last two runs of Nono Le Sage. Hard not to be very impressed and with 8lbs more on his back last time probably still wouldn't have come out of second gear to win. Read a quote from the stable that he works harder at home.
One of the reasons given to the stewards for the improvement for the first win was the faster ground so no concerns there today. I just can't see this being passed today and have backed this morning. |
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was Nono unpenalised in last race? 17lbs higher today but still fairly impressive in last 2 runs
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Last two races off 75, runs off 92 today. More importantly he carries 10.10 today, 10.02 last time.
Have to think that 10.10 last race would have made no difference to result |
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i fancy sir harry cool at3.20 and erdeli at 5.05
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hmm, tricky race imo but if i was to have a bet, which i probably will now, i think Exulto has a few things going for it at a similar price
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ahem
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Well done, Fatty.
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Hey, Fat Dodgy. Great call.
Couldnt watch the race but got my place anyway. Will have to find some way of watching it and decide when Erdeli will win, if ever! |