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I think Halcon Generladais is a great bet today. #
It's quite astonishing how quickly this horse has tumbled down the handicap, and for no good reason.
Last season he finished 7l third in the Welsh National off 164, conceding 12lb to Notre Pere, who is (or certainly was) a serious horse in those conditions. Halcon then went on to finish a fine 2nd at Cheltenham over an inadequate 3m on festival trials day, before predictably getting completely outpaced in the gold cup on good ground.
First time out this year he was beaten only 25l in the Betfair, where Kauto & Imperial had a ding dong battle from about 6f out and didn't really get any further away from Halcon once they turned for home. He then ran modestly in the Welsh National, but not attrociously (36l 7th off 157). The Welsh National this year is his only below-par run in 2 seasons, and at the time pretty much everything from the yard was pulling up, they were in desperate form. And yet he has somehow come down the handicap by 19lb since finishing 2nd here off 169 in 2008, I just can't understand it.
So back to today. Halcon does prefer soft ground, obviously, and that presumably accounts for his astonishing odds. But he has been 5th and 2nd in this race before, both on good/goodish ground. While he is at his very best on soft, the real issue for Halcon is a thorough test of stamina, and whenever he gets that he almost always runs a massive race. Top weight is no obstacle, he carries it everywhere he goes, and has placed in 3 nationals already under top weight, all from significantly higher ratings.
Throw in the fact that he's the freshest horse in the race, as he's only run twice this year having missed the Midlands National with a minor knock, and you have an absolute stand-out each way bet at mind blowing odds (he's around 50-1 on here atm). He would be a stand out bet at 1/3 his current price. He rates a shade of odds on to place in my reckoning (he'd be about 1-4 if the ground was soft). He's vulnerable to some unexposed improver of course, and indeed to a rejuvenated Gone To Lunch if one turns up, but he is probably just about the most likely winner of the race too. Massive, massive value, pile in then shut up shop for the summer and spend your money on ice cream.
It's quite astonishing how quickly this horse has tumbled down the handicap, and for no good reason.
Last season he finished 7l third in the Welsh National off 164, conceding 12lb to Notre Pere, who is (or certainly was) a serious horse in those conditions. Halcon then went on to finish a fine 2nd at Cheltenham over an inadequate 3m on festival trials day, before predictably getting completely outpaced in the gold cup on good ground.
First time out this year he was beaten only 25l in the Betfair, where Kauto & Imperial had a ding dong battle from about 6f out and didn't really get any further away from Halcon once they turned for home. He then ran modestly in the Welsh National, but not attrociously (36l 7th off 157). The Welsh National this year is his only below-par run in 2 seasons, and at the time pretty much everything from the yard was pulling up, they were in desperate form. And yet he has somehow come down the handicap by 19lb since finishing 2nd here off 169 in 2008, I just can't understand it.
So back to today. Halcon does prefer soft ground, obviously, and that presumably accounts for his astonishing odds. But he has been 5th and 2nd in this race before, both on good/goodish ground. While he is at his very best on soft, the real issue for Halcon is a thorough test of stamina, and whenever he gets that he almost always runs a massive race. Top weight is no obstacle, he carries it everywhere he goes, and has placed in 3 nationals already under top weight, all from significantly higher ratings.
Throw in the fact that he's the freshest horse in the race, as he's only run twice this year having missed the Midlands National with a minor knock, and you have an absolute stand-out each way bet at mind blowing odds (he's around 50-1 on here atm). He would be a stand out bet at 1/3 his current price. He rates a shade of odds on to place in my reckoning (he'd be about 1-4 if the ground was soft). He's vulnerable to some unexposed improver of course, and indeed to a rejuvenated Gone To Lunch if one turns up, but he is probably just about the most likely winner of the race too. Massive, massive value, pile in then shut up shop for the summer and spend your money on ice cream.
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How much you want @ 1.25 a place?
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9.2 to place looks like your sort of price :)
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Will hate this ground, think he'll do well to get round, but good lk.
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Ive backed him and should be fine on the ground as bar Iris De Balme he would have already won a Scottish National on G/F ( Iwas there that day and the ground was like a road).
That said your idea that he should be a shade of odds on to place is a bit over the top imo |
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a good write up till you lost the plot
"He rates a shade of odds on to place in my reckoning" |
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When he was second to Iris De Balme, he put most of the runners out of the handicap. This time the majority are running off their correct marks. One to avoid in my opinion.
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large ash on iceland......anagram......i know,i'm bored :-)
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first one I put a line through, absolutely no chance
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The one worry is the flat spot he hits.Your point about good performances in good company is well made. Equally soft going is preferred.As a place bet he is good value, and for that reason I'll back him at the attractive price of 50's
Good luck to you. Hope Halcon runs well :) |
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Ground must be a worry but still has the engine.
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Brill Tommee! :-) How'd you figure that out?!
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