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14 Apr 10
10:48
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07 Apr 08
I appreciate that in sprints a high draw is an advantage.....can anyone tell me how many lengths it is worth over a horse drawn low.I am sweet on Mappin Time and am considering a good bet...I think its good price is reflected by the fact it is drawn very low..can anyone help
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not as big a factor in 2yo races as in 3yo+ races.
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It's now an 8-runner race and five of the six outside your selection have never run. They will be strung out after two furlongs in all probability with a couple of slow starts by the newcomers on the cards and there's every chance Mappin Time will be not that far from the rail by then.
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I should wait until this meeting is over if I were you..they have been trying to iron out the bias by various means. Dont wanrt to get caught out on the first day.
Anyway I think I'm right in saying that 7 and 71/2 f has a more pronounced bias than 5f because the track veers right soon after the start and continues more or less the whole way. |
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12+ runners when the stats really suggest the advantage kicks in, also when ground is GS or worse. both of these do not apply to this race.
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thats not really backed up by adrian massey's stats stupac.
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what have they tried to do recently to negate the bias stu ?
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Thanks guys for your help......I'm sold.
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im not sure with the weather this winter,that they have tried anything this year.the draw will not have any effect on a 8 runner 2 yo race,early pace will be much more important,when it is really soft they come up the stand side anyway
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I thought that last year they tried shifting the stalls around and dolling off to some extent to try and negate the bias over 5f. I'm sure I also heard something mentioned on RUK yesterday as well.
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low numbers were coming in when they over water the inside ,to try and level the playing field due to high number draw advantage, with it been natural ground high numbers will have a good advantage in 5 furlong races were they are double number runners
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cheers porter i thought i remembered a few meets when the low numbers were coming in.
the biggest stats difference (bias) actually shows up when ground is 'naturally' GS or worse in big fields over the last 10 years. i suppose unnatural watering of one side would screw this up :) |
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PHEW!!!!!!.....that was close.ALLS WELL THAT ENDS WELL.
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