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13 Apr 10
22:44
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Date Joined:
27 Sep 03
it's been years now, and everytime I think I've got it - there's yet another lesson to be learned. I pull all data progmatically and I use a scale for going (1=hard, 2=firm, 3=good etc). As Southwell runs like soft ground I rate AW at this course as 4 (good to soft).
Take today. Spreadsheets revised yet again (version# 678,439) and I study the 2:20 at Pontefract. I really like HIts Only Jude and I don't think Tangerine Trees can do it because of its recent runs on good to soft going....
only the bugger wins.
Back I go to my spreadsheets only to realise that I've based by judgement of Hits Only Jude on a STH run and it's that which makes it seem as though Hits Only Jude is much better than TT!
latest revision is to have a unique code for STH AW.
it's so hard :-(
Take today. Spreadsheets revised yet again (version# 678,439) and I study the 2:20 at Pontefract. I really like HIts Only Jude and I don't think Tangerine Trees can do it because of its recent runs on good to soft going....
only the bugger wins.
Back I go to my spreadsheets only to realise that I've based by judgement of Hits Only Jude on a STH run and it's that which makes it seem as though Hits Only Jude is much better than TT!
latest revision is to have a unique code for STH AW.
it's so hard :-(
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Replies: 29
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Southwell is indeed unique. Make a note of it.
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Please may I have some ice-cream? :D
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I will email you some now. Out of interest, do you get any fun out of using spreadsheets to find winners ? It seems rather clinical to me, but I know nothing about spreadsheets.
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re: "fun" - well I throughly enjoy it, but I think my definition of fun/enjoyment is probably very different to other people. I love programming and can spend days analysing data.
I would so love to have met Alan Woods - he was an actuary who moved into gambling on horses. Couldn't tell you the name of his winners, but could recognise winning patterns and stats. He would be my gambling hero. How have you got my email? |
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I bought it off your stalker, Dewey.
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ah... I think I know what's happened here you little multiple personality afflicted one :)
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Leave your spreadsheets behind & get into databases. (Access will do)
http://www.racingsense.com/download.htm http://www.sma**on.com/Main/Computing.htm |
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Stow - should have made it clear - the data does come from my db - dumped onto a sp for ease of manipulation
I'll check out those links though - ta. |
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feck all that watch lots of races
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FD but you must analyse prev form - don't you?
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No substitute for actually watching racing and forming a view imo. Prior and collaterol form does sometimes help of course but I always find a notebook best. Take cricketers thread today, superb stuff.
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Black books rule..
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Ok then, so does that have to be LTO on cd/d/g or any other combination?
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Nobody really ever has it cracked, the sport evolves so things that once worked may not work in the future. Mel Collier thought he'd cracked it and it turned him into a punting wreck.
In the race that you speak of, i backed Dickie le Davoir, course winner, on lowest winning mark, been backed on its previous few runs on the AW....drifts from 8s to 36 (i backed it @25) and proceeds to miss the break (coincidence i'm sure!) and any chance it had! |
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CJ: DLD - best cls on last 3 runs on going (win cl3), but that move from visor/blinkers to cheekpieces would have put me off. I always avoid changes of gear - don't they bother you?
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It depends, sometimes trying something different works and they'd tried everything on the horses head short of a tescos carrier bag (ok, i usually take cheek pieces as a sign that the horse has mental issues!), but at 25s i didn't mind throwing a few quid at it on the off chance.
The drift always has you thinking that today wasn't the day but i never let a price put me off if i feel the horse is over priced. |
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First time equiptment gives em a ready made excuse for improved performance when having it off.
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I've posted this question as a new thread - but just in case you didn't see it...
Is there a difference between a "handicap" race and a "handicap stakes" race? ta |
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You seem to be trying a bit hard here mate. Watch the racing, pick the triers out and back accordingley. Dont worry too much about anything else.
I used to bust my guts on the form every weekend, then on the way to the bookies pick up my Grandad's 25p e/w round robin bet. I would then come away skint, call into Grandad's to give him his regular £30-50 winnings and sit at home wondering. Its a profession or its fun, it can't be inbetween. Back the winners, let the prices find themselves. |
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re: You seem to be trying a bit hard here mate. Watch the racing, pick the triers out and back accordingley. Dont worry too much about anything else.
I used to bust my guts on the form every weekend, then on the way to the bookies pick up my Grandad's 25p e/w round robin bet. I would then come away skint, call into Grandad's to give him his regular £30-50 winnings and sit at home wondering. Its a profession or its fun, it can't be inbetween. Back the winners, let the prices find themselves. What's your Grandad's username? :D but seriously, you Grandad must have some method to picking his selections - did her ever let you into that secret? You're right, maybe I am trying too hard - it's all form, form, form with me. |
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form is temporary...........class is permanent....for the record
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not if they're riding out of the handicap it's not
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hi yeah yeah.....remember a few months back I was having trouble with converting the spreadsheets from BF to Excel.....and u tried to figure it out for me??
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I do! how are thing going?
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things are going OK......looking forward to the proper flat season...and 7hr sessions on BF with the evening racing,
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and even though I'll be complaining of exhaustion after 6 meeting days..... I still love it.
Here's to a profitable summer. |
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it is also worth noting racing stats and frequecy of wins at prices
i often use this especially at beginning of flat season..but you must read carefully per race..hope this helps yeah yeah http://www.adrianmassey.com/index.php |
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The point Im trying to make, is about experience and memory. watching the nags, noting the good runs and backing accordingley. Once the pressure is off, winners are easy to come by.
p.s. Granda is long gone. |
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Studying data, watching videos, following the markets, they're all part of the process....most people dont have time to cover all bases so concentrate on one area but it shouldnt make them underestimate or badmouth the other areas. Good luck, yyw, you're obviously putting the hours in. Do you find past data is an accurate predictor of future events, btw? ps going is overrated imo (re ye original example)
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