Is trend the answer to the National?

So often the Grand National winner has come from those that have either run well in the Welsh,Scottish or Irish Nationals or was very prominent in the betting for any of those races. Grand National previous alone doesn't seem that much of a pointer but this year there aren't any previous National runners who qualify under the other Nationals rule so i'll keep them in for now. Everyone knows the stats for those on 11-0 or under so we'll chuck that into the mix also. This gives an inital list of

Snowy Morning 10-10-13 3rd Grand National 16/1
Big Fella Thanks 8-10-12 6th Grand National 14/1
State Of Play 10-10-11 4th Grand National 14/1
King Johns Castle 11-10-9 2nd Grand National 20/1
Character Building 10-10-11 PU Scottish National 6/1
Hello Bud 12-10-6 Won Scottish national 12/1
Flintoff 9-10-5 Placed 3rd in Scottish National 16/1

At least one decent run this season seems to have a bearing but those only having had one run can be excused i reckon. So out goes Kings John Castle who has run 4 times without showing much this season, but i'd keep State Of Play and Flintoff and excuse those 2 pulled ups. Snowy Morning has had 2 National attempts now and hasn't won this season from 5 runs. Even Mon Mome had won a decent race last season before his triumph, so out goes Snowy. This leaves 5. I'm tempted to leave out Hello Bud because
he has also run 5 times this season without winning though he did finish a good 3 rd first time out, he's also 12 now but 12yos do win Nationals. At the price i may as well keep him in. So it's

Big Fella Thanks
State Of Play
Character Building
Hello Bud
Flintoff

That little lot should give me a run for my money.