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Not seen a thread on this, im thinkinh of backing this but just hate the whole has it had a hard race at chelts etc, just think its not got that much to beat and worth a poke at 6/4....thoughts
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I'm of the same opinion, but it did have a hard race. I dont fancy Nicholls horse, and on form 6/4 is a standout. If dunguib was in the race he wouldnt be that big.
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cant believe its as big as 6/4 against these trees
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share your sentiments
have taken 6/4 if he has something to beat i'd be worried but this looks like one chelts winner to win today |
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not just at cheltenham hes run 5 times now this season.
nearly always worth swerving these ones now. not even sure a lot of the cheltenham form will be worth much some very strange results |
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He may well win, but Aintree with its long run in doesn't make short priced horses an attractive proposition for me.
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Escortman wont win imo. general miller only danger to the fav imo
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Interesting that the race more often than not goes to a more speedy flat bred/flat form type than a NH type yet the latter makes up 3/4 of the market here.
Given Menorah has won at Kempton I would't be worried about the track but I would be worried as mentioned elsewhere about this being his 6th hurdle start and the hard race at Chelt. So even though he won an above average Supreme I wouldn't feel the need to take the 13/8. For my sins I've done Inventor e/w.... |
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Menorah is my lay of the day for 2 reasons. The horse had a particularly hard race at Cheltenham and at Ascot the time before and secondly Aintree's flat track and faster going are imo against him. I really like La Sarrazine, who might have too much speed for Menorah and Escort'men who could be anything. Throw into the melting pot General Millar who didn't get past the 1st at Cheltenham and even the enigmatic Washington Irving, who one day will come good at this game and you have a bevvy of much fresher horses than Menorah, all capable of winning. 6-4 way too skinny.
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if it was dungib would you take 6/4
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Hard race and think he thrives on a fast pace, will he get it?
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probably the only reason he's price has held up is beause of the tough race last time. if ready to go will be difficult to beat in my opinion.
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Menorah does look to have a fair bit in hand as the price suggests but like most on here @5/2 3/1 worth a look @ 6/4 5/4 best to keep in the sky rocket. Simply because aintree is a place for shorties imho
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*isn't
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when Menorah gets stuffed today, well then know just how bad a ride Dunguib was given
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Give it a rest, keep believing the hype. It's a machine, yawn!
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Surely the fav is much better value than the second fav at the current prices.
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It Will win
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Its me banker in the placepot
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dogbolter, you make a good point about the lack of flat breds but they are all either in Dubai or on the all weather these days. There was no flat runner in the first 6 home in the Supreme and Fiulin was the only flat horse with any significant chance that ran in it. A very big change from 10 years ago when most 2 mile novice hurdlers were from the flat.
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The horse that won at 40/1 yesterday, not many had as hard a race as that one and look what he did yesterday,
it all depends on the horse ! |
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According to Nick, Escortmen is the fastest he has recorded in the last four years and he can't see it losing. I have backed it this morning, hope he's correct.
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Sageform - surely it's even more significant that in an age where NH bred/bumper horses dominate the Supreme we still see flat raced/bred types win this? Last 4 winners
El Dancer - German 11f conditions race winner Pierrot Luneire - French 10f 90 rated RPR Blythe knight - 100 rated 10f horse Straw Bear - 96 rated 10f horse And all the NH/Supreme types beaten. I just think there's value to be had when trends, and logic (we all know how different Aintree is to Chelt) tell you one thing but the market (3/4 taken up by NH horses) tells you otherwise |
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That being said I wouldn't have any worries about Menorah being effective at Aintree I was more worried about him staying up the Chelt hill, he's got plenty of tight track form and seems fast enough. I am worried about the hard race/buzy enough season though.
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Very unlucky...maybe the hard season told in the end?
GA |
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ran a blinder..made a mess of the first in the straight and paid for it imo
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Sloppy hurdling today has beaten the jolly imo.
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could Dickie not have sat quiet with a lap to go and refrained from going up to the pace and then having to take another pull after every flight down the back
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agreed par. never keen when they keep tugging them back.
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I think the winner was the best horse on the day. Who knows what might have happened in the Supreme had the jockey not fallen off. First two very smart imo.
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yes and he didnt look as vigourous as Geraghty in the finnish
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menorah changes legs about 3 or 4 strides out....could have cost him the race
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lol
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