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08 Apr 10
21:14
Joined:
Date Joined:
21 Mar 10
Based on the following facts i have got my bet down to this
10 out of the last 10 years the winner has been rated between 136 and 148
10 out of the last 10 winners have won a race over 3 miles or more
10 out of the last 10 winners have won a graded race over fences
10 out of the last 10 winners have ran at least 10 chases
only horses aged between 8 and 12 have won the race since 1946
7 out of the 10 winners had won or been placed in a version of the national
only one horse has won the national over 11-3 in history. RED RUM
Leaving:
Priests Leap Character Building Snowy Morning State of Play
Beat The Boys Balyfitz My Will Ellersie George
10 out of the last 10 years the winner has been rated between 136 and 148
10 out of the last 10 winners have won a race over 3 miles or more
10 out of the last 10 winners have won a graded race over fences
10 out of the last 10 winners have ran at least 10 chases
only horses aged between 8 and 12 have won the race since 1946
7 out of the 10 winners had won or been placed in a version of the national
only one horse has won the national over 11-3 in history. RED RUM
Leaving:
Priests Leap Character Building Snowy Morning State of Play
Beat The Boys Balyfitz My Will Ellersie George
Show More
The only 2 greys to win ........ nicholas silver - the lamb
Grittar carried 11-5
And i think Corbiere was over 11-3 too.
If your talking about the Whole history of the race then Every horse carried 12-0 when it was 1st run for quite a few years
And i think Corbiere was over 11-3 too.
If your talking about the Whole history of the race then Every horse carried 12-0 when it was 1st run for quite a few years
sorry rhyme n reason 11 stone corbiere and grittar both carried above 11-3
Maybe it needs a little more research, or maybe im thinking a little to much.
Winners often have two letters the same, consecutively, in their name.
In the 29 races since 1980, 13 horses have won under this theory. The 30th void race, was 'won' by Esha NeSS. And of course the reason for this is fate - the first ever winner was LoTTery.
MiNNehoma
WesT Tip
AmberleigH House
Monty's PaSS
BindarEE
PapiLLon
BoBByjo
Earth SuMMit
Lord GyLLene
LiTTle Polveir
HaLLo Dandy
GriTTar
BeN Nevis
so FlintoFF all the way then
or possibly:
Big FeLLa thanks
My WiLL
BaLLyhoLLand
Dream ALLiance
ABBeybraney
HeLLo Bud
BaLLyfitz
ELLerslie George
CoNNa Castle
OLLie Magern
In the 29 races since 1980, 13 horses have won under this theory. The 30th void race, was 'won' by Esha NeSS. And of course the reason for this is fate - the first ever winner was LoTTery.
MiNNehoma
WesT Tip
AmberleigH House
Monty's PaSS
BindarEE
PapiLLon
BoBByjo
Earth SuMMit
Lord GyLLene
LiTTle Polveir
HaLLo Dandy
GriTTar
BeN Nevis
so FlintoFF all the way then
or possibly:
Big FeLLa thanks
My WiLL
BaLLyhoLLand
Dream ALLiance
ABBeybraney
HeLLo Bud
BaLLyfitz
ELLerslie George
CoNNa Castle
OLLie Magern
personally ive allways for the last 20 years ruled out horses above 11-01 and that has worked every year. Cuts the field in half most years i think this year it gets rid of16
53 horses have won with Over 11-3
3 have carried 12-7 to victory
3 have carried 12-7 to victory
This year's race has an entirely different complexion ...
as the handicapper, Phil Smith, has deliberately 'shaped' the weights even more so than ever before, in order to try and get a 'classy winner' -
That means, in his aim, a horse weighted above the long traditional 11st 1lb
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JOHN SMITH's GRAND NATIONAL
24th February 2010
Last Tuesday I announced the John Smiths Grand National weights at a lunch in London. It is the most exciting yet most stressful day of the year for me as hundreds of people, including trainers, owners, jockeys, the press, the sponsors and everyone at Aintree get first go at scrutinising my work.
Overall most people were very kind and complimentary about the shape of this years race but inevitably there was some criticism as not everyone understands how I set about the job. This account will be about the developing methodology I have used to try to create increasingly competitive renewals of the greatest horse race in the world.
I have included some statistical tables which show how the race has changed over the years and I will start off with 1999 which was my first year as the Grand National Handicapper.
At weights lunch
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Horses 95 99 126 139 148 117 152 144 117 149 120 111
11st 0lbs+ 6 24 7 9 18 23 28 19 25 26 13 30
10st 0lbs+ 23 42 32 24 49 43 64 66 62 79 48 67
In Handicap 29 66 39 33 67 66 92 85 87 105 61 97
% In Handicap 31% 67% 31% 24% 45% 56% 61% 59% 74% 70% 51% 87%
Out of Handicap 66 33 87 106 81 51 60 59 30 44 59 14
As you can see there were 95 entries in 1999. The top weight on weights lunch day was Teeton Mill who had just won the King George at Kempton a pound clear of Sunny Bay who had been second to Earth Summit in the Grand National carrying 12stone the previous year.
I was pleased with those two but where were the other good horses? There were only 4 other horses due to carry 11stone or more and only 29 in the handicap. The eventual winner Bobbyjo was down to carry 9 stone and was among 66 horses out of the handicap.
On the day of the race there wasnt even a full field of 40 as there were only 32 runners on the day with more than half of the field (18) out of the handicap. The lowest rated horse to run was Back Bar who at number 32 in the field was a whopping 32lbs. out of the handicap.
It was just not a competitive contest and I knew the race needed some serious surgery. Luckily I was not alone and in May 1999 I met with Paul Greeves my boss at the old BHB, David Oldrey who was Chairman of the Race Planning Committee and Charles Barnett who at that time was Chief Executive of Aintree who vowed to massively increase the prize money. They gave me a number of goals.
I was given 3 years to attract more of the better horses to run in the race and to ensure a full field of 40 runners every year. I was to make sure no horses were running from out of the handicap, reintroduce the Aintree Factor into the race and improve the overall quality of the field. Pretty easy then!
My view was that all of those targets were mutually inclusive but how to start? I had no idea and just handicapped the 2000 and 2001 editions the way I had done in 1999. However events conspired to help me a little. The highest rated horse that was entered in 2000 was Young Kenny on 155.
This had the effect of ensuring that everything down to 141 (24 horses) was due to carry 11st.+ and made it a more competitive race. There were 66 horses in the handicap on weights day and on the big day itself only 7 horses ran from out of the handicap. There was also a full field of 40 runners.
The winner Papillon carried 10st.12lbs. which was the highest weight a winner had carried for 12 years. Suddenly people thought that the better horses had a chance to win the race.
As a result in 2001 See More Business and Florida Pearl were among a record entry of 126 horses (Aintree and the sponsors Martell had increased the prize money enormously) entered in the race and they had finished first and second in a Gold Cup. Unfortunately the knock on effect was that only 7 horses were due to carry 11st.+ and only 39 were in the handicap on weights day. By the time of the race, none of the top six in the weights turned up and there were still 14 horses that ran from out of the handicap.
The race itself was one of the more chaotic ones. It was Red Marauders year and there were only 4 finishers. I was to go into Grand National history as the handicapper with the worst ever finish, a distance, a distance and a distance. I had to come up with something as the only bright spot was that at least the minimum rating needed to get into the race had gone up to 123.
There was an obsession amongst trainers with avoiding carrying top weight in the Grand National as no top weight had won for over 25 years. It was blindingly obvious, reduce the top weight. Helped and encouraged by Stuart Middleton in the Racing Department I brought it down to 11st.12lbs.
For the first time I began applying my take on the Aintree factor. Top weights had a good record of giving the weight in my big 3 mile handicap chases but not in the Grand National, so I decided that it must be correspondingly more difficult to do so over 4.5miles at Aintree. I began compressing the horses at the top of the handicap.
In 2002 there was a record entry of 139 but only 9 horses were due to carry 11st.+ and only 24% were in the handicap. However on race day only 9 horses ran from out of the handicap, there was another full field and you needed your horse to be rated 130 in order to get a run. It was slow progress.
2003 brought a record entry of 148 horses with 67 assessed at more than 10st. on weights day in February. Florida Pearl, Marlborough, Cyfor Malta were class animals entered in the race and I began to compress the top weights a little more. On the day of the race only 4 horses ran from out of the handicap and two horses carrying 11st.+ were in the first four with Whats up Boys in my eyes a slightly unlucky loser.
By 2005 a record 152 horses entered the race now sponsored by John Smiths and thus worth a small fortune to the winner. I managed to assess 92 horses as being in the handicap on weights day with a record 28 at 11st.+. On the day of the race, heaven! The whole field was in the handicap and a horse carrying 11st.+ (Hedgehunter) won for the first time since 1988.
I began to increase my use of the Aintree factor, extending it to increasing the weight given to horses that had previously shown good form over the National fences but which were unlikely to get a run off their normal rating. Many horses appear able to go back to the track and perform way above their normal level on park courses. Amberleigh House had proven that to me in 2004. I now felt they deserved another chance especially if they had supported Aintrees other races. It was also fun when trainers actually thanked me for putting their horse up.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
155-159 5 5 4 5 8 16 6
150-154 9 10 8 12 12 16 17
145-149 11 16 8 9 10 15 23
140-144 13 13 25 20 27 22 27
135-139 17 28 28 26 31 27 21
130-134 22 29 25 26 34 12 8
125-129 18 21 19 6 11 7 5
120-124 11 9 12 5 10 5 3
115-119 7 12 9 5 5 0 1
110-114 4 9 6 3 1 0 0
Total 117 152 144 117 149 120 111
Median 130 134 135 137 137 142 143
As you can see if you look at the statistics since 2004, the number of horses entered that are rated at 140+ has increased year on year leading to a record 73 this year. Last year I suggested lowering the top weight to 11st.10lbs. This would have been unthinkable 10 years ago but nowadays there has not been a horse running from out of the handicap for 5 years, although there might have been had Denman stood his ground last year.
This year there has been a reduction in the number of entries but they are exclusively at the bottom end of the ability range. They had no hope of getting a run. In 2009 another horse managed to lump 11st. to victory so that this year there are 30 horses that have been encouraged to enter with 11st+ on their backs compared with 6 in 1999.
I feel I have nearly achieved all of my aims from 1999. Only one remains. We now have very good horses entering the race and massive strength in depth as well as a full field all in the handicap. However it remains an ambition to entice a Denman or a Kauto Star or an Imperial Commander to run. I thought we might have got there a couple of years ago with Exotic Dancer but he ran elsewhere at the meeting. Come on Harry 11st.10lbs. with a compressed rating, that has to get you excited for 2011 with the big horse Denman doesnt it
as the handicapper, Phil Smith, has deliberately 'shaped' the weights even more so than ever before, in order to try and get a 'classy winner' -
That means, in his aim, a horse weighted above the long traditional 11st 1lb
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JOHN SMITH's GRAND NATIONAL
24th February 2010
Last Tuesday I announced the John Smiths Grand National weights at a lunch in London. It is the most exciting yet most stressful day of the year for me as hundreds of people, including trainers, owners, jockeys, the press, the sponsors and everyone at Aintree get first go at scrutinising my work.
Overall most people were very kind and complimentary about the shape of this years race but inevitably there was some criticism as not everyone understands how I set about the job. This account will be about the developing methodology I have used to try to create increasingly competitive renewals of the greatest horse race in the world.
I have included some statistical tables which show how the race has changed over the years and I will start off with 1999 which was my first year as the Grand National Handicapper.
At weights lunch
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Horses 95 99 126 139 148 117 152 144 117 149 120 111
11st 0lbs+ 6 24 7 9 18 23 28 19 25 26 13 30
10st 0lbs+ 23 42 32 24 49 43 64 66 62 79 48 67
In Handicap 29 66 39 33 67 66 92 85 87 105 61 97
% In Handicap 31% 67% 31% 24% 45% 56% 61% 59% 74% 70% 51% 87%
Out of Handicap 66 33 87 106 81 51 60 59 30 44 59 14
As you can see there were 95 entries in 1999. The top weight on weights lunch day was Teeton Mill who had just won the King George at Kempton a pound clear of Sunny Bay who had been second to Earth Summit in the Grand National carrying 12stone the previous year.
I was pleased with those two but where were the other good horses? There were only 4 other horses due to carry 11stone or more and only 29 in the handicap. The eventual winner Bobbyjo was down to carry 9 stone and was among 66 horses out of the handicap.
On the day of the race there wasnt even a full field of 40 as there were only 32 runners on the day with more than half of the field (18) out of the handicap. The lowest rated horse to run was Back Bar who at number 32 in the field was a whopping 32lbs. out of the handicap.
It was just not a competitive contest and I knew the race needed some serious surgery. Luckily I was not alone and in May 1999 I met with Paul Greeves my boss at the old BHB, David Oldrey who was Chairman of the Race Planning Committee and Charles Barnett who at that time was Chief Executive of Aintree who vowed to massively increase the prize money. They gave me a number of goals.
I was given 3 years to attract more of the better horses to run in the race and to ensure a full field of 40 runners every year. I was to make sure no horses were running from out of the handicap, reintroduce the Aintree Factor into the race and improve the overall quality of the field. Pretty easy then!
My view was that all of those targets were mutually inclusive but how to start? I had no idea and just handicapped the 2000 and 2001 editions the way I had done in 1999. However events conspired to help me a little. The highest rated horse that was entered in 2000 was Young Kenny on 155.
This had the effect of ensuring that everything down to 141 (24 horses) was due to carry 11st.+ and made it a more competitive race. There were 66 horses in the handicap on weights day and on the big day itself only 7 horses ran from out of the handicap. There was also a full field of 40 runners.
The winner Papillon carried 10st.12lbs. which was the highest weight a winner had carried for 12 years. Suddenly people thought that the better horses had a chance to win the race.
As a result in 2001 See More Business and Florida Pearl were among a record entry of 126 horses (Aintree and the sponsors Martell had increased the prize money enormously) entered in the race and they had finished first and second in a Gold Cup. Unfortunately the knock on effect was that only 7 horses were due to carry 11st.+ and only 39 were in the handicap on weights day. By the time of the race, none of the top six in the weights turned up and there were still 14 horses that ran from out of the handicap.
The race itself was one of the more chaotic ones. It was Red Marauders year and there were only 4 finishers. I was to go into Grand National history as the handicapper with the worst ever finish, a distance, a distance and a distance. I had to come up with something as the only bright spot was that at least the minimum rating needed to get into the race had gone up to 123.
There was an obsession amongst trainers with avoiding carrying top weight in the Grand National as no top weight had won for over 25 years. It was blindingly obvious, reduce the top weight. Helped and encouraged by Stuart Middleton in the Racing Department I brought it down to 11st.12lbs.
For the first time I began applying my take on the Aintree factor. Top weights had a good record of giving the weight in my big 3 mile handicap chases but not in the Grand National, so I decided that it must be correspondingly more difficult to do so over 4.5miles at Aintree. I began compressing the horses at the top of the handicap.
In 2002 there was a record entry of 139 but only 9 horses were due to carry 11st.+ and only 24% were in the handicap. However on race day only 9 horses ran from out of the handicap, there was another full field and you needed your horse to be rated 130 in order to get a run. It was slow progress.
2003 brought a record entry of 148 horses with 67 assessed at more than 10st. on weights day in February. Florida Pearl, Marlborough, Cyfor Malta were class animals entered in the race and I began to compress the top weights a little more. On the day of the race only 4 horses ran from out of the handicap and two horses carrying 11st.+ were in the first four with Whats up Boys in my eyes a slightly unlucky loser.
By 2005 a record 152 horses entered the race now sponsored by John Smiths and thus worth a small fortune to the winner. I managed to assess 92 horses as being in the handicap on weights day with a record 28 at 11st.+. On the day of the race, heaven! The whole field was in the handicap and a horse carrying 11st.+ (Hedgehunter) won for the first time since 1988.
I began to increase my use of the Aintree factor, extending it to increasing the weight given to horses that had previously shown good form over the National fences but which were unlikely to get a run off their normal rating. Many horses appear able to go back to the track and perform way above their normal level on park courses. Amberleigh House had proven that to me in 2004. I now felt they deserved another chance especially if they had supported Aintrees other races. It was also fun when trainers actually thanked me for putting their horse up.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
155-159 5 5 4 5 8 16 6
150-154 9 10 8 12 12 16 17
145-149 11 16 8 9 10 15 23
140-144 13 13 25 20 27 22 27
135-139 17 28 28 26 31 27 21
130-134 22 29 25 26 34 12 8
125-129 18 21 19 6 11 7 5
120-124 11 9 12 5 10 5 3
115-119 7 12 9 5 5 0 1
110-114 4 9 6 3 1 0 0
Total 117 152 144 117 149 120 111
Median 130 134 135 137 137 142 143
As you can see if you look at the statistics since 2004, the number of horses entered that are rated at 140+ has increased year on year leading to a record 73 this year. Last year I suggested lowering the top weight to 11st.10lbs. This would have been unthinkable 10 years ago but nowadays there has not been a horse running from out of the handicap for 5 years, although there might have been had Denman stood his ground last year.
This year there has been a reduction in the number of entries but they are exclusively at the bottom end of the ability range. They had no hope of getting a run. In 2009 another horse managed to lump 11st. to victory so that this year there are 30 horses that have been encouraged to enter with 11st+ on their backs compared with 6 in 1999.
I feel I have nearly achieved all of my aims from 1999. Only one remains. We now have very good horses entering the race and massive strength in depth as well as a full field all in the handicap. However it remains an ambition to entice a Denman or a Kauto Star or an Imperial Commander to run. I thought we might have got there a couple of years ago with Exotic Dancer but he ran elsewhere at the meeting. Come on Harry 11st.10lbs. with a compressed rating, that has to get you excited for 2011 with the big horse Denman doesnt it
Another strange fact is every winner since 91 has a capital letter in the 1st two letters of its name
This rules out from your list Priests Leap, Character Building, Snowy Morning, State of Play and My Will
This rules out from your list Priests Leap, Character Building, Snowy Morning, State of Play and My Will
And taking familymans stat that winners tend to have consecutive letters in their name we are left with Beat the Boys.... even though he left this one out of his list
Well im now down to
Ballyholland, Bakstage, Snowy Morning, Cant Buy Time, Big Fella Thanks, State Of Play, Character Building, Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme, The Package, Irish Raptor
Ballyholland, Bakstage, Snowy Morning, Cant Buy Time, Big Fella Thanks, State Of Play, Character Building, Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme, The Package, Irish Raptor
when you first posted a thread about horses you'd backed I i thought you were an attention seeking pr*t.
This thread confirms it.
This thread confirms it.
No one made you respond on here or even reply, you think cause your an old git who never leaves his computer and beloved forum buddies you can be rude and obnoxcious.
I made you respond then did I, or are you not a fourm gremlni.
Haha forum grandads ganging up together even though the first insult was thrown from your direction.
DPrescott89
Well im now down to
Ballyholland, Bakstage, Snowy Morning, Cant Buy Time, Big Fella Thanks, State Of Play, Character Building, Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme, The Package, Irish Raptor
Well if you cross off Ballyholland because he has not won over 3 miles and also cross off The Package because he is a 7 yr old then your remaining horses also fit the selection criteria that i have been working on.
Well im now down to
Ballyholland, Bakstage, Snowy Morning, Cant Buy Time, Big Fella Thanks, State Of Play, Character Building, Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme, The Package, Irish Raptor
Well if you cross off Ballyholland because he has not won over 3 miles and also cross off The Package because he is a 7 yr old then your remaining horses also fit the selection criteria that i have been working on.
Facts - a guy posts a relatively interesting thread following research he's done and sparks a discussion about stats that might point to the winner of one of the biggest races of the year.
That's an example of what's GOOD about this forum.
You respond by deciding that's your cue to post unsolicited juvenile, peurile abuse.
That's an example of everything that's BAD about this forum.
Why can't people simply come on here and discuss/ debate?
If you don't like a thread then move along and leave it to those who want to contribute positively.
Kindly leave this thread...there's a good boy.
That's an example of what's GOOD about this forum.
You respond by deciding that's your cue to post unsolicited juvenile, peurile abuse.
That's an example of everything that's BAD about this forum.
Why can't people simply come on here and discuss/ debate?
If you don't like a thread then move along and leave it to those who want to contribute positively.
Kindly leave this thread...there's a good boy.
I Was and was then Called a 'Prat' for my hard work.
i cant get away from state of play and your stats are helpful...everyone has opinions and so be it, peoples research is not always 100% but at least it starts a good thread...no one deserves to be called names for a decent thread...facts - hang your head in shame
I Will however apologise to 'FACTS' for the poor language I used. However I posted here because I know you lot know more than me and thought the 'Prat' comment was not needed.
apology accepted. I too am sorry for calling you a pr*t.
GL with your GN bets !
GL with your GN bets !
=) A Lot of fuss for me seeing as though im not even going to be able to watch the race.
...and backstage.
plus the old addage of french breds dont stay (put to bed by mon mome last yr though!)
plus the old addage of french breds dont stay (put to bed by mon mome last yr though!)
Thanks for everyone's help im going to stick with : Snowy Morning State of Play,Ballyfitz And Arbor Supreme.
if u wanna chuck in a couple of other 10/10 stats then each winner had 4+ starts in the season & each winner ran within 7 weeks of the race.
could even be 12 of last 12 on both
could even be 12 of last 12 on both
Winners often have two letters the same, consecutively, in their name.
In the 29 races since 1980, 13 horses have won under this theory. The 30th void race, was 'won' by Esha NeSS. And of course the reason for this is fate - the first ever winner was LoTTery.
MiNNehoma
WesT Tip
AmberleigH House
Monty's PaSS
BindarEE
PapiLLon
BoBByjo
Earth SuMMit
Lord GyLLene
LiTTle Polveir
HaLLo Dandy
GriTTar
BeN Nevis
so FlintoFF all the way then
or possibly:
Big FeLLa thanks
My WiLL
BaLLyhoLLand
Dream ALLiance
ABBeybraney
HeLLo Bud
BaLLyfitz
ELLerslie George
CoNNa Castle
OLLie Magern
you also forget to add that 16 out of 29 races =55% DONT have consecutive leTTers in their name
In the 29 races since 1980, 13 horses have won under this theory. The 30th void race, was 'won' by Esha NeSS. And of course the reason for this is fate - the first ever winner was LoTTery.
MiNNehoma
WesT Tip
AmberleigH House
Monty's PaSS
BindarEE
PapiLLon
BoBByjo
Earth SuMMit
Lord GyLLene
LiTTle Polveir
HaLLo Dandy
GriTTar
BeN Nevis
so FlintoFF all the way then
or possibly:
Big FeLLa thanks
My WiLL
BaLLyhoLLand
Dream ALLiance
ABBeybraney
HeLLo Bud
BaLLyfitz
ELLerslie George
CoNNa Castle
OLLie Magern
you also forget to add that 16 out of 29 races =55% DONT have consecutive leTTers in their name
Dprescot89, you may find a site named Heritage Racing, which gives winners of ALL big races since inception, but as I am an old enthusiast of racing I cannot remember the proper site name, consequently I cannot find it myself, if you find it could you please post the address for me?
DPrescott89 08 Apr 17:45
£10 Wins On Chief Dan George, Dont Push It, Cant Buy Time, Tricky Trickster And Mon Mome Any Views Or Opinions.
DPrescott89 08 Apr 23:17
Thanks for everyone's help im going to stick with : Snowy Morning State of Play,Ballyfitz And Arbor Supreme.
so that's 9 sels. then ?
£10 Wins On Chief Dan George, Dont Push It, Cant Buy Time, Tricky Trickster And Mon Mome Any Views Or Opinions.
DPrescott89 08 Apr 23:17
Thanks for everyone's help im going to stick with : Snowy Morning State of Play,Ballyfitz And Arbor Supreme.
so that's 9 sels. then ?
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