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06 Apr 10
15:42
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Date Joined:
28 Aug 05
Has just said that the11st and over rule for the National has gone for ever. I still think that one from under the radar will come and pip the fancied top weights.. Snowy Morning and Character Building look smashing bets at the prices
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Replies: 24
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he's no trends man, ye follow
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i think his maybe going to tip the 3rd fav ew in the nov hdle in the race before,1/4 odds a place b.o.g
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He may be right, but I'd still want to be with a lightweight...
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Has just said he fancies Character Building and that he would shout to Tiger Woods from the croud " Get in the hole..
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Nick Mordin doubts a horse carrying 11-2 or more can win because they're being asked to give weight to horses of very similar ability in a compressed handicap.
Since 1984, 103 runners have carried 11-2 or more and all have lost. |
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BTW, Mordin's points system which shortlisted Mon Mom last year, has 11 qualifiers this year.
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Obviously the extreme distance also makes it harder to carry big weights - no surprise that most of the the horses carrying big weights who have been able to go close in recent times have been Gold Cup winners or near to Gold Cup winning class...
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He cant be that clever,hes just said cast iron casey wants softer ground after todays race.
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left ruk to be a pro, soon back says it all
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has he started charging yet??
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The idea of 'big-weights' is a complete misnomer - the horse weighs half a ton ffs! It's about how far ahead of its handicap mark it is, not how much weight it's carrying - horses in conditions races regularly carry 11-10, anyway, including Kauto Star, who hardly seemed to be tiring under that supposed 'welter burden' in either the King George or last season's Gold Cup.
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did hear him say made 5 pound 10 pence, other man said you the hell gave you 10 pence, he said everyone
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had to llaugh when naughton said "take a bow" graham for tipping the last winner, but before the race gc said no bet. i would be kicking myself around the room if i had tipped a winner and not backed it, and i know he's forced to give a tip!
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boneheaded stats says GC.
Quite. |
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did you mistakenly add the e to quite ?
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''Nick Mordin doubts a horse carrying 11-2 or more can win because they're being asked to give weight to horses of very similar ability in a compressed handicap.''
Makes zero sense. |
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Agreed. Barmy logic like most of his ideas.
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The national is now handicapped to give the optimum chance of a big priced winner imo.
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I like the way that since we've had a couple of winners carrying over 11 stone in the past few years (11-1, 11-0), it's now "horses cannot carry 11 stone 2" or more!
When the trends get gubbed, just change them and carry on as normal. |
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trends have done fantastic for me in the national over the years had the winner nearly every year from a shortlist off the stats of about half a dozen
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how's the tipping service going?
is it in profit B-) |
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cannot stand him on RUK but his RFO tips are good tbf
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i layed a 7/4 shot once after he said "i would be doing my wife and kids an injustice if i didnt lay this" stone cold last, top man.
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Today's advice: In theory, evens or better about the Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander is very tempting given that he has 19lb plus in hand on Timeform figures and lines up on the back of a ruthlessly efficient defeat of Denman at Cheltenham. In practice this Commander needs to prove he can string two peak performances together in swift succession, but why shouldn't he do just that? Look back at the video from Cheltenham and it's clear that nigel Twiston-Davies' chaser didn't have an especially tough race and the way he jumped and travelled was highly impressive. The fact that he's out again so quickly after Cheltenham is a slight concern. But it's the only concern. Many in the media are looking elsewhere in search of better value. But they could be barking up the wrong tree. In short, if the Commander is none the worse for his Cheltenham exertions then evens or better could prove a treat.
I love races over the Aintree National fences, but I don't have much time for hunter chases. With that in mind I'll tread carefully in the 15:45, though it is worth pointing out that Baby Run's Warwick and Cheltenham wins mark him out as a very strong contender The 16:20 looks a corking two mile handicap chase and, with Lord Jay Jay, Pret A Thou, Kilmackilloge and Dr David in opposition, it looks bound to be run at a searching gallop. Step forward Consigliere, who travelled like a dream for a long way at the Festival only to find the effort of a duel with French Opera taking a toll close home. He's consistent and holds clear win and place potential. |