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Horse Antepost
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Ante-post markets always a tricky proposition, at the prices I think last years winner BIG MOJO 14/1 has a great chance for a repeat. A lot will depend on who rides, I am hoping Buick gets the call. His latest run suggests he may be coming to the boil at exactly the right time. He returned to six furlongs at the Curragh and won the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint Stakes, sitting just behind the pace before striking the front inside the final furlong and holding on strongly. That was a significant rebound after a disappointing July Cup, and it showed that his speed remains intact at this trip. He still has to prove himself conclusively at Group 1 level, but at a double-figure price the appeal is clear: this is a sprinter arriving off a win rather than one being asked to rediscover his form.
The case
ALMERAQ is the main danger at 6/1 and arguably owns the strongest single piece of form among the four. His victory over 18 runners in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot established him as a genuine Group 1 six-furlong performer, while his earlier Salisbury success shows that Ascot was no isolated flash. The obvious blemish is his ninth in the July Cup afterwards, where he weakened late, but a horse who has already won one of the season's premier sprint prizes demands enormous respect. If he returns to his Royal Ascot level, he could easily make 6/1 look generous.
FLORA OF BERMUDA makes plenty of each-way appeal at 16/1. Ignore her latest tenth over seven furlongs and there is an attractive sprinting profile underneath: she won the six-furlong Summer Stakes at York in July and had also scored over the trip at Newmarket earlier in the season. Dropping back from seven furlongs therefore looks potentially positive rather than negative. SPICY MARG at 40/1 is the real wildcard, but that price underestimates some very serious form. She was second in the Commonwealth Cup at 50/1 and had previously finished third over this exact Haydock six furlongs on Good to Soft. With the current race data pointing towards Soft ground, that Haydock performance gives her a much more credible chance than the bare 40/1 suggests.
The verdict
This is a proper Group 1 puzzle, and the attraction of BIG MOJO is as much about 14/1 value as outright ability. Almeraq possesses the proven Group 1 victory and is unquestionably the horse to beat, but Big Mojo arrives fresh from a six-furlong Group 3 win and could still have more to offer. Flora Of Bermuda is the each-way play if returning to six furlongs sparks a revival, while Spicy Marg is particularly intriguing at 40/1 given her Commonwealth Cup second and previous Haydock run. With the Sprint Cup set for six furlongs at Haydock and the supplied going currently Soft, the finishing order is 1. BIG MOJO, 2. ALMERAQ, 3. FLORA OF BERMUDA, 4. SPICY MARG — and at the prices, Big Mojo is the one worth siding with.
Ante-post markets always a tricky proposition, at the prices I think last years winner BIG MOJO 14/1 has a great chance for a repeat. A lot will depend on who rides, I am hoping Buick gets the call. His latest run suggests he may be coming to the boil at exactly the right time. He returned to six furlongs at the Curragh and won the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint Stakes, sitting just behind the pace before striking the front inside the final furlong and holding on strongly. That was a significant rebound after a disappointing July Cup, and it showed that his speed remains intact at this trip. He still has to prove himself conclusively at Group 1 level, but at a double-figure price the appeal is clear: this is a sprinter arriving off a win rather than one being asked to rediscover his form.
The case
ALMERAQ is the main danger at 6/1 and arguably owns the strongest single piece of form among the four. His victory over 18 runners in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot established him as a genuine Group 1 six-furlong performer, while his earlier Salisbury success shows that Ascot was no isolated flash. The obvious blemish is his ninth in the July Cup afterwards, where he weakened late, but a horse who has already won one of the season's premier sprint prizes demands enormous respect. If he returns to his Royal Ascot level, he could easily make 6/1 look generous.
FLORA OF BERMUDA makes plenty of each-way appeal at 16/1. Ignore her latest tenth over seven furlongs and there is an attractive sprinting profile underneath: she won the six-furlong Summer Stakes at York in July and had also scored over the trip at Newmarket earlier in the season. Dropping back from seven furlongs therefore looks potentially positive rather than negative. SPICY MARG at 40/1 is the real wildcard, but that price underestimates some very serious form. She was second in the Commonwealth Cup at 50/1 and had previously finished third over this exact Haydock six furlongs on Good to Soft. With the current race data pointing towards Soft ground, that Haydock performance gives her a much more credible chance than the bare 40/1 suggests.
The verdict
This is a proper Group 1 puzzle, and the attraction of BIG MOJO is as much about 14/1 value as outright ability. Almeraq possesses the proven Group 1 victory and is unquestionably the horse to beat, but Big Mojo arrives fresh from a six-furlong Group 3 win and could still have more to offer. Flora Of Bermuda is the each-way play if returning to six furlongs sparks a revival, while Spicy Marg is particularly intriguing at 40/1 given her Commonwealth Cup second and previous Haydock run. With the Sprint Cup set for six furlongs at Haydock and the supplied going currently Soft, the finishing order is 1. BIG MOJO, 2. ALMERAQ, 3. FLORA OF BERMUDA, 4. SPICY MARG — and at the prices, Big Mojo is the one worth siding with.
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Good luck, Iris
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If the rain comes like the forecast, it'll be very heavy. Marvelman for me.
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Ground has changed to heavy ahead of today's card.
I think that will be against last year's winner, Big Mojo. Last years runner-up, Kind Of Blue won the Champion Sprint on soft two years ago. But both were flattered last year by being drawn on the favoured stands rail. Marvelman will like conditions and ran well for a long way in the City Of York latest. Almeraq should handle these conditions on his dam side, and his win at Ascot is the best form on offer here. He has had a nice break since his disappointing run at Newmarket and 11/4 looks generous. |
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Added Aramram e/w in a poor renewal of this race. Will like conditions.
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