2027 1000 Guineas

Was very impressive and talk about ‘bred in the purple’. The initial 14/1 after the race was fair enough but single figures now doesn’t tempt me.

Would expect her to win the Debutante and Moyglare aftervwhich she could be about 5/2 for the Guineas, so a nice arb if you wanted.

My main concern would be that her breeding screams 10f so she might just lack the speed.

Yup uncle agree on the price situation. Was 16/1 in a place directly after but mainly 14/1. I ended up with 85p at 14/1 (thanks Laddies) but had a bigger bet at 11/1. I share your concerns on the breeding and would also add Aidan doesn't always get then ready in time in the spring. But if she stays sounds and she does turn up I'm happy to accept John Gosden's opinion of the 1000 guineas being the last 2 year old race of the season and her apparent class may just get her home. Crikey, we are still in June (just) and we are hypothesizing about next May!

Godolphin’s Musical Times followed up her debut win by taking a novice race at Yarmouth at odds of 1/5. Won easily enough making all under Buick but my eyes were drawn to her stablemates Gracious Gift who was making her debut under a jockey I’d never heard off.

A nicely bred daughter of Dubawi she looked a really nice model, bigger than the winner, and was clearly ridden to come second and have a nice education. Definitely one for the notebook.
Wouldn’t be at all surprised if she is the higher rated of the two at the end of the season.

Alpha at Leopardstown this evening at 18.08. Very short in the betting so hopefully no more than an exercise canter!

Well that didn't look up to the standard needed

Alpha was the only winner at Leopardstown to come from off the pace that evening.
The track obviously had a front runner bias.
I think you can mark up the performance, and she might be overlooked next time on the back of that run.

I was encouraged by the trainers comments after the race (not necessarily about her size) and her targets remain the same which are the races he plots for his better 2 year olds. I went in again at 12/1 the next day more in hope than confidence. Hoping for a better performance next time

Watched the replay,is it me or is Alpha much bigger than the 2ND & 3RD.

She is massive. I only know this by listening to Aidan's interview afterwards. He said she put on 10 kilos between her 2 races and that they decided to run as it was a way of keeping her ticking over before tackling the main targets later on this year. The optimist in me hopes that means he'd done very little work with her!

Nice debut from Spirited Gesture today,despite being green and hanging I was very impressed with that debut. 25/1 best price atm.

She looks potentially very good and very similar to her brother Calyx who I also liked a lot on his debut. About time Gosden trained another filly to win the Guineas.

Obviously a visually impressive win from Musical Times and backed up by a decent comparative time. Nevertheless, I have her 3-4lbs short of an average Guineas winning performance. I would expect to see a better performance later in the season, maybe even by MT herself in the Fillies Mile, but for now I'll hang fire.

Musical Times was mightily impressive today. She's only 7/4 for the Fillies Mile. At least we can be sure she's Newmarket bound, all being well.

Well only three days later and, for me, we did see a better performance from Sun Goddess. I have her 3lbs higher than Musical Times with a level that would see her just about good enough to take, or go very close to taking, an average Guineas. The way she finished the race would give every hope of her staying a mile. However, she's already had seven runs this season, and it looks like she hasn't finished yet. It's not a question of her needing to improve next year, but whether she'll remain in this form. O'Brien said due to her physique he would expect her to be a better filly next year, but my fear is she's done all her progressing as a 2yo and we probably won't see her retain this form in the spring, so I'll pass on her.

I've had no bets yet on next year's 1000 Guineas, but the Cheveley Park Stakes on Saturday is a fascinating clash between three of the top 6f fillies. When I look at the ratings and the current prices for the Guineas, I see some potential value. Sun Goddess (OR 119, TF 120) has been hugely impressive in her latest two wins on yielding ground and outclassed her rivals in the Moyglare over 7f last time, but she's speedily bred and not guaranteed to last out a mile in a truly run race over the full Rowley Mile. Libertango (OR 107) is the only filly to have beaten Sun Goddess since the latter won her maiden: her win in the Albany Stakes at Ascot was the best performance by a juvenile filly by that stage of the season, but she has since been beaten by Senorita Bonita in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket before narrowly winning the Lowther at York. Senorita Bonita (OR 117, TF 114) has improved with every race and took a big step forward when landing the Gr.1 Prix Morny at Deauville by 4 lengths in a very fast time, showing impressive acceleration.

Betting for the Cheveley Park Stakes: 13/8 Sun Goddess, 15/8 Senorita Bonita, 4/1 Libertango, 12/1 bar. Betting for the 1000 Guineas: 5/2 Sun Goddess, 4/1 Musical Times, 12/1 Senorita Bonita.

It takes a special filly to win the Prix Morny by 4 lengths, regardless of the opposition, and Senorita Bonita is hugely tempting at 12/1 for the Guineas. If she were bred to be a sprinter and unlikely to get a mile next year, then I could understand the price disparity. She clearly inherits lots of speed from her sire Starspangledbanner, but her dam is by Derby winner Ruler Of The World out of a Kris S daughter of Magical Gleam (a Gr.2 winner over a mile, runner-up in the Gr.1 Coronation Stakes). The dam is also a half-sister to Sub Rose (a Gr.3 winner over 12f) and Astonishing (a Listed winner over 12f), both by Galileo, so there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side of the pedigree. Musical Times looks the likeliest Guineas winner at this stage, but at current odds I'll take a chance on Senorita Bonita at 12/1.

For the Cheveley Park Stakes itself I think Moonrise looks massively overpriced at 20/1 (each way, with eight runners). She's officially rated higher than Libertango. Alwaysanangel and Star of State, and yet she's a much bigger price and was very impressive in the Sirenia Stakes last time.

Welcome aboard James. Great to have you impart some proper analysis along with all the other contributors.

That may help disguise my initial but ridiculous assessment of Alpha.....

Front 2 in the Mkt, 5/2 & 4/1 for a race 8 or so months away.
Not giving much away are they.

I suppose I should have mentioned Senorita Bonita as I have her a couple of pounds higher than Musical Times and just a pound behind Sun Goddess. However, I have big doubts about her staying a mile. Her finishing kick in France was made to look better as the race fell apart. Connections started her out twice over 5f and now two starts at 6f, soon to be three on Saturday. Simon Crisford said she doesn't look like a stayer, despite saying they'll try her over the mile next year. Very much sounds like hope than any kind of confidence, but you never know.

I have Sun Goddess up 1lb from the Moyglare and on the exact mark I have for a typical 1000 Guineas winner. Apparently if she comes out of the race well she's not finished this year. Senorita Bonita clearly didn't run to form. She was off the bridle some way out at Deauville, and, as I said, that race fell apart around her, so she probably had quite a hard race there. I still see her as a doubtful stayer anyway.

As said previously, I don't think Sun Goddess needs to improve next spring, just hold her level. I reckon Coolmore are happy to keep rolling the dice with their 2yo fillies, and whatever they do as 3yos is seen as a bonus. It may seem a simple task to bring her back next season in the same form, but many fillies actually go backwards after this kind of campaign. Obviously I wouldn't be surprised if she won the Guineas, but I have a doubt that we'll see the same filly next year.

I'd agree with everything you've said there Figgis. There was clearly something amiss with Senorita Bonita, so we can put a line through her performance. She simply didn't fire and failed to reproduce the smart acceleration she showed at Deauville. Sun Goddess's earlier form was already good enough to win yesterday's race, the only doubt being whether she would have the speed to cope with smart types back at 6f on fast ground, but she came through impressively with her long stride once she met the rising ground. Although quite speedily bred she shaped at the Curragh like she would probably last a mile and she doesn't need to improve over the winter to win a Guineas if she's in the same form next spring. Musical Times, odds-on favourite for the Fillies' Mile, is the obvious challenger. At the moment I don't see any particular value angle in the Guineas market.

Sun Goddess could go for the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland a similar route taken with Lake Victoria (?).

After the Lagardere, the winner, Amusingly, would be my fav for the Guineas. I rate her the equal of Sun Goddess, but I just feel that, comparing their profiles, Amusingly is the one more likely to replicate her form next season. Some might doubt her ability to get the mile, but I reckon she finished today's race strongly enough that she ought to be able to get the Guineas trip next year. Although I am aware that the Longchamp 7f is very much on the easy side.

my own personal opinion is, we should grab the 4/1 Musical Times for the Guineas before she races today. cheers.

The filly got Buick out of trouble today.

If I could get 2/1 Sun Goddess with a run, it would be my biggest bet in 67 years of life.

If she turns up in May, my guess is she will be circa 4/7.

Just a guess though ?