Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
If you were in Ryan Moore's position, and assuming both colts take part, would you choose The Derby winner, Christmas Day, or the Derby, ahem, non runner Benvenuto Cellini?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 17
|
By:
I'm not sure that Benvenuto would have won the Derby with a clean break, but the betting at the moment suggests that the AOB team think differently with it being the current well backed favourite at 11/10, Christmas Day on the other hand pushed out to 4/1 today, possible non runner?
|
|
By:
Tiger Tiger, it's a possibility. However, I'd be surprised if the books have taken much connected money at this stage. I wouldn't expect them to take much until the runners have their final work before the race, that is unless the signs are that Christmas Day is going to need more time after his Derby exertions.
|
|
By:
Got well btn @ Epsom even after the mishap in the stalls.
I don't see why he should reverse the form with the 3RD & 4TH if they show let alone the Wnr. |
|
By:
The ground is the key for Ben. He was inconvenienced the most in The Futurity but, 6/4 is short though.
|
|
By:
CD looks the kind of derby winner who will never win another race. BC probably beat nothing at Chester. Raheeb appeals.
|
|
By:
That looked a good performance by Raaheeb @ Sandown but don't think it looks
too clever now.All 6 he beat in that have since ran 10 times between them & as of yet have failed to win a race.The best was Action's Dante run when 2ND. Having said that he is 2/2 with improvement still to come probably. |
|
By:
Raheeb won easy last time but that form looks very poor now and it will be difficult going against the O'Brien mob but you never know. Would be good to see him win
|
|
By:
Is anyone giving Pierre Bonnard a chance here? His jockey will be interesting.
|
|
By:
O'Brien jocks
Action - McDonogh Benvenuto Cellini - Moore Christmas Day - Whelan Pierre Bonnard - Lordan. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
The soggy ground at Epsom took its toll on Pierre despite his preference for it. I do not think he stayed 12f in soggy ground. However, he does have the best 2-yr old form. Every runner in the race has an unknown or negative factor eg JJ Braddock, on good ground.
Nothing special on display, I can confidently predict. No surprise there. It's the Irish Derby after all. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Despite Pierre Bonnard having a big reputation and winning a very weak Gp1 in France, I have never recorded him running faster than Gp3 level. Raaheeb won very well last time, and with only two career starts is open to any amount of improvement. However, even though some thought his Derby trial win looked like a potential Gp1 performance in a Gp3 race, I have it as just a bog standard Gp3 performance in a Gp3 race. So he really does need to step up.
Christmas Day had a couple of starts before improving in the Derby. Benvenuto Cellini only had the one start, so of course it's possible we could see something similar when he's given the chance. I would never underestimate the information gleaned from home gallops in the present era. And if the data is telling them that BC has improved then I would choose him as Moore has done. There's also the possibility that CD isn't quite showing up like he did to inspire the market move on him before the Derby. That aside, on course form alone I have CD improving 10lbs last time. Even though it was a below average Derby win I still have him 4lbs higher than anything BC has shown on the track. Maybe it was entirely the soft ground which brought the improvement. But what I usually find is that so called mudlarks don't necessarily run any better on soft, it's more that the opposition falls away,as was the case with the Coronation Cup run earlier. In the Derby I have CD as showing genuine improvement. CD looks the kind of derby winner who will never win another race Yes that definitely couldn't be ruled out. I've seen loads of horses throughout the years run out of their skin and perform to a similar mark as CD when finishing only placed in better Derbys and never getting close to that again. If the market weakness is based mainly on current homework then backing CD is probably money down the drain, but I'll take that risk and I'm backing him. |
|
By:
Well he overturned the Espom form,didn't think he would meself.
Braddock was a complete blow out,looked btn a long way out. |
|
By:
Braddock similar to Thundering On possibly ran too soon since Epsom. Both have had hard races. Another was Legacy Link.
|
|
By:
So Moore was proved right to pick BC. Again this is pretty moderate form, and, even though BC beat CD fair and square, I rate this form equal to the Epsom Derby, albeit on better ground. In a normal year I'd be saying this level probably wouldn't be good enough to take an all age Gp1, but looking at the thin opposition around this season I wouldn't rule it out.
|
|
By:
I would concur with that analysis Figgis. Ben could only beat what was before him, and did so comfortably enough. AP was truly thrilled. Eighteen Irish Derby's is incredible. We were for many years exporting it, so it is a good to be keeping it at home. Delighted to have Ryan Moore. He is so good, up there with the great Lester. Ben was 2/1 all round the line and saw him as short as 13/8 as he became the one for the money. Bonnard 12/1 early doors shortened into 8/1 or so. Ran well to be third to reward e/w backers suited no doubt by the open spaces of the track. Really strong wind blowing helping them to come home. Two nice winners in Purview, and Alpha. Other than these the racing was quite moderate. Seems Ballydoyle bought Alpha's mother for €6 mill, but Flaxon Farm (Niarchos family), still involved apparently. I hear the Moyglare being mentioned already for Alpha. Could be pretty good, but you never know. She was probably done to a tee for a win on the big day. Freely available on course at 9/10 from an opening of 8/13, 4/6. Ger Lyons 2 year old filly Livenka related to Babouche was beautifully turned out and will be soon winning. Too many very moderate races on Derby day, which they should look at. Good enough crowd but up to now did not hear a crowd figure. Two big GAA football games probably kept the crowd figure down.
|