Horse Antepost
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Sovereign Sea backed this on here @ 40s + does need for 1 or 2 to come out to get in.
Hope he's an intended rnr as he's got a decent H'cap in him to me.Gets the 10F & this
slight drop in trip over a straight course shouldn't be a problem if he runs.After winning
on his debut last season @2/7 (Newcastle 1M) he's been rnr/up 5 of his 7 starts since.
The only time he's not run too well is a 12/12 @York G/F 3 runs back.Certainly didn't do
much wrong when 2ND a few days back when done late on @ Donny (10F Sft).
Obviously a very competitive race with luck needed with the draw etc but with only 8runs
under his belt could still have some improvement in him.Priced up between 25s - 40s with
the books atm,should be more Plcs available come the day if he shows (E/W).
GL ALL
Hope he's an intended rnr as he's got a decent H'cap in him to me.Gets the 10F & this
slight drop in trip over a straight course shouldn't be a problem if he runs.After winning
on his debut last season @2/7 (Newcastle 1M) he's been rnr/up 5 of his 7 starts since.
The only time he's not run too well is a 12/12 @York G/F 3 runs back.Certainly didn't do
much wrong when 2ND a few days back when done late on @ Donny (10F Sft).
Obviously a very competitive race with luck needed with the draw etc but with only 8runs
under his belt could still have some improvement in him.Priced up between 25s - 40s with
the books atm,should be more Plcs available come the day if he shows (E/W).
GL ALL
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Nice to see a thread up Penzance ... Best of luck with your lad.
10/12 aged 3-5 3/12 top 3 betting 9/12 9st 5lbs or below 10/12 ran within 37 days 8/12 ran at newm 2/12 won at newm 9/12 min 3 flat wins 11/12 rated 94 or above 11/12 min 3 runs current season 9/12 won current season (The Stats Don't Lie) Possibly one of the hardest handicaps to work out all season. Liberty Lane broke the high draw winning sequence in 2024,nothing below stall 21 in the previous 8 runnings. The course winner stat thrown me a little,much lower that expected. Yarmouth/Carlisle a couple of undulating tracks that spring to mind,probably a few more I've missed. Cursory glance so far,as always plenty catch the eye. Orandi Greek Order Erzindjan Epictetus Just a few that will need a closer look if they take up the engagement. Weather looks set fair coming week,another factor in calculations. Will take a closer look at 48 hr stage,well deserved to see someone work this one out  |
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Quite keen on Marhaba Ghaiyyath but market not exactly speaking in its favour so might not be running.
Ran really well when second in good handicaps at the Newmarket July meeting and Glorious Goodwood though has gone up best part of a stone for those performances. I hardly ever back a Johnston trained horse but at least this one is coming off a disappointing run and is a massive price, so just the type to go in.  Have had a small bet at 40/1 and might go in again if declared and draw looks ok. |
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Good write up Penzance and a nice price! Not a race I bother with but at those odds it might tempt! Good luck.
Nocturnal have you stats for the Arc? The one stat there that really surprises is that only 2/12 have actually won at HQ. Yet 8 of 12 have been prepping there at some time or other for it. |
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Delashay .... Website > The Stats Don't Lie
Click on horse racing,then flat,then france .... the Arc is on there. Johnston still mob handed with 5 at this early stage. Plenty jocked up,but neither of the top 2 heading the weights,both trained by k burke. Boiling Point not showing up would definately change the look of current weights,all part of the puzzle. |
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Thanks so much Nocturnal, will be bookmarked.
Does any trainer have a particularly good record in this race? Would be a good note to add. |
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N/R.
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Phew and thanks P!
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Only 24 declared which is a worrying sign of the times.
Low draw for Marsha Ghaiyyath so doubt I’ll go in again unless results over the next few days suggest it might not be so bad. If it drifts to a massive price (close to three figures) I might chuck a few quid on for the hell of it, Couple of savers on Greek Order and Cash. |
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Cash looks decent value. Weighted to go close to the fav but his price is 5 times that of Treble Tee and he has a better draw. Won his first ever race over a mile at Newmarket and has shown group class form on his day.
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Downside is that the Newmarket maiden was his only win in 13 attempts. First time back at Newmarket since then. Last time out was his first run in a handicap.
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8/12 ran at newm
2/12 won at newm Only six have run there Boiling Point 14/1 Treble Tee 11/2 Fort George 15/2 Great Chieftain 28/1 Real Gain 8/1 Cash NR So down to 5 |
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There might be straggler as well
 Erzindjan - OR 98 Globetrotter over the last few seasons,starting life in Ireland with the Weld team back in 2020. Just the 3 runs since march 2024,2 of those were promising efforts for current yard. Contested in much higher grades during his time in Meydan,never getting his head front,far from disgraced. At 7 he may well be on the decline,but that back classmight just see him out-run current odds. B Linfoot has gone into a little more depth in his sporting life preview .... Dark Horse. Great Cheiftain - OR 93 From the yard that produced Majestic Dawn 2020 to spreadeagle a similar field,off a mark of 94. Given a mid season break,not given a hard time on his return,has this been the plan? Both of his wins at haydock/newm saw him doing his best work late on,over the 1m trips. Based on that alone,if he can settle in a decent position early,this trip could be ideal. Career high mark to overcome,record here 1,1,3,5 .... course will not be an excuse. Like plenty in here,he,s on the upgrade,I like his profile coming off the break,has a squeak. Savvy Victory - OR 101 Another from a smaller yard,with arguably minimal recent evidence to suggest he,s a player. Yet he does bring a touch of class,contesting much higher grade races throughout his career. Dropped to handicap company twice recently,both showed a degree of promise over 1m 2f. 5th in this race 2022,where he was stuck out in the middle,off a rating of 99. With the only claimer in the race on board today,he gets to race off his lowest mark since then ... 96. Can he get competitive with that reduced mark? Another one just outside the head of the market. Any of the 3 placed in top 4 might limit the damage somewhat Cracking race ... GL All. |
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Good luck and thanks again for that page.
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