Horse Antepost
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If you were in the position of Ryan Moore, with the choice between Illinois and Scandinavia, which runner would you have chosen?
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Illinois. He's a proven. Apart from the weight concession I'd have Illinois over Scandinavia.
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I would have to agree with Impossible123. First time for everything.
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Fair enough lads. Well, Moore is in the position of knowing how they both are at home at the moment. I know there are a lot of diehard punters out there who still swear the form book is king, but I have no doubt what a huge bearing current home work has on the outcome of many races, especially with particular yards. If that has been the deciding factor then I'd probably pick the same.
Other than that, I can obviously see the case for Illinois, as impossible said, he's proven. However, Scandinavia put up a good effort last time. I don't agree with those who thought it was good enough to win a Leger, but it was pretty decent. In my view a stone is a very generous amount for the 3yos to be receiving in a race such as this. These staying races never contain genuine Gp1 horses that are comfortably able to give that weight to a decent 3yo. Most of them are no better than Gp3 12f horses. That's why when a proper Gp2 12f horse is entered, such as Kyprios, Stradivarius, etc, it's usually game over for the rest. Illinois isn't of their class, or at least he hasn't shown it yet Scandinavia hasn't done the trip yet, and even though it looks like it won't be a problem you can't be totally sure until he proves he gets it. More of a concern is the fact that his latest performance was far above anything he'd shown before. And it was achieved through relentless galloping rather than a noticeable turn of foot. There's the possibility that could've been a one off instead of something he can back up. This isn't a race I bet in very often but I'm backing him in the hope he can replicate the Newmarket performance, which I believe should be good enough at these weights. |
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The presenter on ATR has just Sid that he’s looking at Illinois for the Arc.
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There’s not a lot between these on ratings, Moore has twice chosen not to rise Scandinavia who stuck on remarkably well at Ascot having racing wide throughout. The weight pull could be decisive so I can see why the fav is weak.
Gosden loves the race and brings 3 resting Trawlerman, will Sunway who looks gone get the extra distance and be a new addition to the division - you can add Military Academy to that statement also (whose 1L 3/4 defeat by Royal Champion in the Winter Derby doesn’t look too bad on a class angle since the weekend). His price has been battered in from 18/1 to 11/1 as low as 9 here! |
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The eternal problem for punters - likely winner versus value? Ideally the most likely winner offers the most value but that doesn't happen too often, and for me that's true today.
I think that the market has the right order for winning chances, i.e Illinois, Scandinavia, French Master but for value I have them in reverse order. Why? Illinois is not much in front of Scandinavia which in turn has greater scope for improvement at a better price. As does French Master who might just have even greater scope for improvement and given how he finished at Ascot he is much better than his rating. He won at 14f, a handicap admitedly, with a god time and a very good finishing split. Gosden knows a good stayer when he sees one. So, I 'm betting FM to win big, Scandinavia for a reasonable win and Illinois to save. Better than FM ew imo.(NB Illinois has an Arc entry.) |
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Sandown, for me French Master is another runner who has been the beneficiary of the appalling standard of many of the big handicaps this year. I don't rate him even close to Group class, even staying Group class. Although I accept that, with his run style, it's possible he may have more to offer than he's shown so far. He may also be suited if there's a slow pace.
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Beforehand, the Lennox is another race containing a horse that last time out ran well above its previous level, in Noble Champion. There was plenty of talk about track bias afterwards, but in my view the time proved it was a very decent performance. I wouldn't call such a result a fluke, but with it being well above anything NC had shown before there has to be a question of whether he will back it up.
I reckon the one with the most ability in the field is Audience, but trying to predict when that one will be on a going day isn't for me. Kinross would be no pushover but at the age of 8 it remains to be seen if he can still perform to his best. I don't have much between NC and Jonquil but with the latter disappointing last time I will take him on. Ed Walker reckons NC has always shown at home the type of speed he showed last time at Ascot, so in the hope of a repeat I have backed him. |
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When NC won at Ascot Gleason told of a punter who had £250 ew each with ten stalls.
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I don't have a good projection for NC so I may agree with you. As for FM I have to trust the figures and bet accordingly. I do not have a view on your handicap opinion.
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Good luck with your bets, not sure why this Groynd is, looks wet in the air. Trainer of Witness Stand mentioned the give.
Disappointed it’s not rattling for tomoz and the Sussex. |
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Good shout stays well
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Well done Figgis. Excellent shout.
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OK result for me. Too big a step for FM but his handicap mark makes him one to watch.
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Cheers lads. Surprised they let him go off at that price.
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Skukuza put up a much improved performance last time at the Curragh, well worthy of the Listed status of the race. He has to concede a lot of weight in the Golden Mile today, a concession that would usually put me off in this kind of race. Nevertheless, further to my belief that a lot of big handicaps have been garbage this season I will be siding with him. With that weight, even if he does replicate that latest effort, he's still going to be vulnerable to a low weighted improver or one who recovers some past form, but this price is too good for me to refuse.
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