Ascot Champions Day

yo biscuits i just put up a similar thread on the horse racing forum ...good luck with yours !

Like Guyon's 2 mounts E/W.

Facteur Ch...3.15) - 9s books & 10s here atm.
Mexicali Rose (4.35) - 14s-25s books & 25s here atm.
Both got low draws in 3 & 8,if they're on the right side,especially Mexicali Rose
can see these both running well.
   GL ALL

the frenchies  often go off a bit bigger than they ought to imo ,a bit of a biasfor the uk runners i have found

good luck penzance

Cheers.
ATB.

Thank you FOYLESWAR, I shall hop over to the main forum.

Quipco Champion Stakes

In a match bet between Calandagan and Ecnomomics, I would definitely prefer Calandagan.
Calandagan's 2nd to City Of Troy looks better than Economic's win in the Irish Champion:  Calandagan was further infront of Bluestocking (1st in the Arc) than Economics was infront of Los Angeles (3rd in the Arc).
Also, Economics was only 4th on debut last year on Heavy going and this creates a doubt with today's forecast Soft going.  (It is hard to know for sure because it was a debut run as a 2yo.)
However, Calandagan has Group 3 winning form on both Heavy and Very Soft, so will not be inconvenienced by the conditions.
If soft going makes this a stamina test, then this will help Los Angeles, but I don't think he is good enough and I don't like horses that ran 13 days ago (the stats are against them).
Irisine needs both soft going and 12f. He only gets one of these, so is passed over.
I don't see any of the others as threats.
I see Calandagan as a strong favourite and likely winner.  If Economics is close to favouritism he will be my lay.

irisine looks to have a  bit to find with the front 3 in the betting and   has plenty of racing but is  something of a win machine in weaker  looking group races  but the going should be fine ,her best form seems over further but todays conditions should  make this a real test  and his price  around looks a bit big to me  around 16/1 ew bog . there is a stat  on b365s write up that no 7yo has won this for over 100 years but how many 7yos run in this ? addeyb won it as a 6yo . ive had an ew pop at the above prices !

I don’t fancy Calandagan on soft ground in a group 1 as he seems a difficult horse to settle. I don’t think the usual hold up tactics will work if deployed again. The Economics doubts about the ground seem over played on pedigree and action. I suspect Calandagan is a false favourite to attract early money and Economics will shorten.

I agree with Marksman that the York form is better than the Leopardstown form. Although Bluestocking was clearly well below her Arc form that day, not that she'd have won anyway but she would've finished closer. Even though I was obviously happy with Economics winning last time I'd expected him to win more decisively. Normally in cases like that I go back and with the benefit of hindsight I realise where I've overrated one. Maybe I have overrated Economics but if I have it isn't obvious to me. In fairness he didn't have an easy trip at Leopardstown, and the race came quite soon after the French race, where I gave him a big figure. I really don't know about him on this ground, and the price he was put in early doors didn't have me eager for a bet, but drifting out to 5/2 I had no qualms about going in and keeping the faith that he's as good as I thought.

The French horse ran an unbelievable race after that start and trip. Best horse in the race.

Thats what I thought, Try My Best.  He was ridden too vigorously at the start to gain a position and paid for it in the last 100 yards.

Don't think the jock had any option really. He didn't want to be stuck behind a wall of horses at the bend. The performance re-inforces the view that there isn't anything over 1m 2f - 1m 4f to touch COT where collateral form just gives him a boost time and time again.

Best horse was the wnr.Gets out earlier wins by more.

, the 2nd in the eclipse was unsighted in the arc,  like penzance said winner would have won easily today , 2nd in the derby has done nought, 3rd in the derby was nowhere today, plus when COT had decent opposition 2000 gns he flopped ,

^^I think the above was unfair and disingenuous to an extent.

Calandagan finished 2nd to CoT in The Juddmonte; Calandagan finished an unlucky 2nd today; LA was 3rd in The Arc just 2 weeks ago, and today was one run too many over an inadequate trip. I think he should never have run; Auguste Rodin ought to have but was rerouted to the Japan Cup.

I believe Ambiente Friendly (Derby 2nd) was campaigned too aggressively post Epsom, and probably jaded too; 12f in Gp1 company was stretching his stamina to breaking point. Also, a good rest was needed. Perhaps next year he'd return to his Epsom potential or had regressed.

imp, yes i am rather harsh , but Aiden cannot be serious by saying hes the best hes ever trained surely

'elisjohn', AOB says that solely to promote Coolmore's breeding business. But, for CoT Auguste Rodin (AR) would have been studded now. As such, AR is collecting (easy) prize monies across the world.

but are we overating the 2nd today, his form bar ascot wasnt up to much wasit , when he won at ascot the 2nd was beaten more or less the  same   dist by ancient truth next time

I think today's Champion Stake contenders were much of a muchness. I think Economics returned with a bit of blood on his nostril.

the fillies and mares was a good winner but should never be a group1 imo, nor the sprint

I agree. Kalpana could be a genuine contender for 2025 ARC, unless AOB has a 3 yr old for the next ARC. But, as for myself little interest now until the King George at Kempton, then Cheltenham follow by the 2 Guineases and Derby. The last named I'm on The Lion In Winter. I'm hoping he'd do a CoT for a mega payout.

But, i said that last season with CoT for the 2000G.

similar here, but lake vitoria in 1000 for me, plus my fav 2 weeks at the  crucible

I'm looking forward to the 1st run of Constitution Hill in The Fighting 5th since his illness. I'd like to see him give another drubbing to State Manm and the much hyped Lossiemouth.

I've never been to The Crucible (I take it you meant the iconic venue for snooker). I've only driven past it in the mid 80's just after the storm that ravaged the UK.

crucible is like a small village when snooker is on, youve got the venue then  about 200 yds up the street youve got where hazell and co are , and in between youve got loads of vendors with fantastic food outlets and big screens , brilliant,  and if you ever go,  go to the 2 tables matches , youre right on top of the players

cons hill  around  6/4 on here to lay, bookies going 7/4

Sounds interesting The Crucible. It's a bit like Notting Hill without the music but food of Borough Market.

I think I've about £250 running on Cons Hill at 13/8 from last season NH/Flat eg I am Maximus/CoT/Kyprios. My next important target is The Lion In Winter for Epsom.

Post this a possible retirement from this game. It's so time consuming; antepost near deaded; game managed by a handful of powerful stables and owners; horses with multiple targets; bookies not trading as bookies but turf forensic accountants.

Too much effort for too little gain (if any).

I could be retiring from this too after next years Arc.  I have been laying horses for well over 20 years, on here and the daq.  The big, fearless (and often clueless) backers have long gone.  The mug money on USA racing following Dale McKeown's "tips" is a distant memory.  My best results came from multi-laying in big races where the winner was a skinner in my book.  Best of all was Mon Mome winning the National at 100/1, a race in which I had deposited several thousand just to lay Denman, who wasn't even entered in the end.

But I have just received the first of my private pension payments and I get the state pension next year.  Perhaps I will do something else in life when that happens.

I don't know what I was thinking when I typed that.  Of course I won't "retire".   This thing is hard to just walk away from.

Economics was never really travelling with the same ease as in his previous races. Maybe the ground, or could just have been the effects of the hard race in Ireland. The fact that he bled again is a concern for the future. Whether Calandagan would've won with a better start is impossible to say. I'd side with the camp saying the best horse on the day won. Although I have Calandagan 2lbs lower than his York effort, so it's not unreasonable to suggest with a better start he could've run to his York level and instead of being beaten half a length he would've won half a length.

One thing I'm certain of is whether he'd have won half a length or even if Economics had won half a length, this is not true Gp1 form. It's been a poor year in the middle distance bracket.

I saw a stat which suggested that horses that bled once during a race were no more likely to bleed again than any other horse.  But that was a few years ago and I can't remember were I read it.

.Marksman, that's probably true on the whole, but must be different for horses that have done it more than once. It's whether or not you believe the earlier excuse of the stalls incident.

a poor year in the middle distance bracket.

agree Figgis. some of the biggest races being won by geldings - i don't recall this happening before

ive brought this up a few times on threads, but am i correct that aiden hasnt had even one winner of a group1 in uk and ire under 12 furlongs this season( correct me if im wrong ) with 3 year old and older, ? has he had any in france ?

sorry i mean under 10 furlongs

A_T, hopefully just a blip and not a downward trend.

not sure if its a blip, i was waching old races today on you tube, the international at york with rodrigo, group2 at r asvot  where the standard was awesome, ( now group1), the standard now is really poor, and has to be if obrien thinks that COT best ever in his yard , and that kyprios is out of the ordinary, EG cot is best ever in yard , yet hes beaten only 2 or 3 group1 performars in his life

Elisjohn, funnily enough I have The RDT International bang on the same mark as this year's. It was Gp1 level but certainly nothing special.

Congratulations to the Ballydoyle boys and champion trainer Aidan with only 11 UK group 1 wins and 19 overall this season amassing nearly 10 million Euros in the uk and approx 7 million in Ireland. What a dream team they are and I'm sure all true racing fans will be supporting COT when he takes on the Yanks in their own backyard. A monumental task awaits him.

I hope the Japanese horse wins it, personally.  I admire their racing very much.
However, I always hope those new to the surface come back safe.  I still remember George Washington.

figgis, im not on about RDT  int mark, but the actual opposition he faced  that day,which was imo far superior fiels, inc dr devious, kooyonga

dont even think there was  even 11 group1 races in uk when cecil and co  were at their prime

Elisjohn, fair enough, but his better opposition ran nowhere near to form that day.

Elisjohn, by better opposition I meant better than the filly, All At Sea, that finished second to him, not that they were necessarily better than RDT. My own view is that, in general, flat racehorses over here are running as fast as they used to (and in some cases faster). Although, top class sprinters have been fewer in recent years. The standard was absolutely dire this season. I completely agree with you though that, on average, Gp1s, are less competitive than they used to be.