Horse Antepost
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The media have ramped this up as the ongoing rivalry between Asfoora and Big Evs, which is fair enough, but as far as quality goes the 5f division this year has been as slow as I've ever seen. So this is going to be a purely value seeking bet rather than one backed by utmost confidence. Taking the King George result at face value it's no surprise the market points to Asfoora being favoured today with a 6lbs turnaround. However, when Big Evs won at Doncaster last year encouraging me to back him in America I had him running 7lbs faster. There's no way I'd have backed him following the figure he recorded at Goodwood. There's a possibility he just isn't capable of that as a 3yo, but watching his last race I think it's also possible he would've won easier if he'd gone faster earlier.
This reminds me a bit of when Paris House was expected to turn around the Goodwood form with Lochsong on much better weight terms going into this race. The big difference was Lochsong was a much better sprinter as a 5yo than Big Evs is as a 3yo, and, crucially, Lochsong had already shown that season she was better than ever when blitzing them at Sandown.
Win or lose, there's no way I'd be interested in backing Asfoora this short, but I'd be annoyed with myself if Big Evs won at these odds without backing him, so he's the bet.
This reminds me a bit of when Paris House was expected to turn around the Goodwood form with Lochsong on much better weight terms going into this race. The big difference was Lochsong was a much better sprinter as a 5yo than Big Evs is as a 3yo, and, crucially, Lochsong had already shown that season she was better than ever when blitzing them at Sandown.
Win or lose, there's no way I'd be interested in backing Asfoora this short, but I'd be annoyed with myself if Big Evs won at these odds without backing him, so he's the bet.
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Earlier in the meeting I thought it was just that the pace had been far side, but clearly there was a faster strip from Friday inwards at least. Big Evs never had a chance on that basis Figgis. Very frustrating.
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Howellsy, yes but it was always a possibility the way things had been panning out, so I can't use that as an excuse. Actually I don't think he'd have run much better anyway and isn't quite as fast as he was last year, or, at least, as fast as I'd rated him. Bradsell was a worthy winner and not a major surprise. But I had him down as a horse that usually runs a poor one after a good one, so I never would've backed him at those odds. I make that form marginally better than the Ascot and Goodwood 5f sprints this year, but it's still a poor level compared with past winners.
Any upcoming fancies Howellsy? |
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There's a bit of a lull now isn't there? Always a bit wistful after York, but there's plenty to look forward to. I love the big juvenile races. I've been disappointed with the 7f colts so far on speed figures. Who do you have on top so far? I think Cowardofthecounty will be very hard to beat over7/8f with soft in the description. The Acomb was interesting - I'm not sure the winner is quite as good nor the Godolphin colt as far inferior as might have seemed to be the case. Whether either will prove top class is a moot point though. Chancellor looks as if he might be very interesting given a decent pace to aim at.
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Aomori City had been my top but was surpassed a couple of pounds by The Lion In Winter the other day. Both will need to improve a bit to become possible Guineas winners. TLIW's future will probably be over 12f though and he'd only need to improve a couple of pounds to be a possible Derby winner.
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We'll have to agree to differ on that Figgis. I gave it a solid time but not what I might have expected. Does the proximity of Wimbledon Hawkeye arouse any doubt about your figure?
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Howellsy, not really. I know what you mean, and it did make me think twice, but I've learned that beaten horses can sometimes be rated quite high without necessarily expecting them to be able to repeat it.
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