Sussex Stakes (Group 1)

The RP and Timeform both have Rosallion now 1lb ahead of Notable Speech. It is nearly 3 months since the Guineas. Sometimes after such time and many more form lines to assess I will need to revisit a card and realise I should've gone higher or lower. I may still be wrong this time but if there is an error of judgement I can't see it. For me, Notable Speech's Guineas win was clearly the best performance by any 3yo over any distance this season.

His SJP run was obviously very disappointing. I've heard arguments put up that he was flattered in winning the Guineas because he was positioned best in a strongly run race. That he had a fitness advantage because he'd already run 3 times on the AW. I don't buy this reasoning myself, but it's plausible. What isn't plausible is that these were the reasons for him being beaten 6 lengths at Ascot. The horse simply did not run his race last time.

There is the possibility that the race has set him back long term. A horse doesn't need to be showing an obvious injury to have physically regressed. Maybe he just had an off day. There is also the possibility that he needed a bit longer than usual to have recovered from the Guineas effort. Most horses have been conditioned on the track before being asked to win a Guineas. By that I mean they'll usually have performed in a fast run race at least once. Either in a top 2yo race or in a trial. Whereas all of NS's previous races were piddling AW events where he was just asked to pick the opposition up late on. The Guineas on turf must have been a vastly more taxing experience. Especially this year when a very high class performance was required.

So, with the knowledge that I may well be backing a spent force, I will be having a decent bet on NS at these odds.