The Irish Derby

11-10 Ambiente Friendly, 15-8 Los Angeles, 7 Matsuri, 16 Agenda, Chief Little Rock, 20 Grosvenor Square, Sunway, 66 Euphoric, Keeper’s Heart, The Euphrates

Nice. Ambiente Friendly has been supplemented. Let's hope the good weather holds, and Havlin rides with a thinking cap and not get boxed in.

Having belatedly taken a dim view of this year's Derby I couldn't take short prices about Ambiente Friendly even though he undoubtedly brings the form to the table. I am interested to see how LA performs as some pundits reckoned he could've run COT close given a more restrained ride. But he's not for me.

The one of O'Brien's that interests me is Grosvenor Square. If he runs like he did at Chester last time then he has no chance, but that wasn't his true running. A lot of AOB's runners weren't quite ready back then and improved for their first start of the season. I have no idea if Grosvenor Square is in better shape for this, but I believe a return to his Gp3 winning form last year would see him with a winning chance in an underwhelming Irish Derby.

brings the *best form to the table

Take City Of Troy out the equation,Ambiente Friendly's won the Derby by over 3Ls.
Can't see this getting beat in this.Best horse in this race.

Hope Ambiente Friendly does not run like City Of Troy or Notable Speech in the 2000G and SJP Stakes respectively. If so, I'll lose faith in English horses ever running in Ireland. I still remember the run of Cracksman.

This 2024 Derby might look as though its not an awful lot different to the Derby of 2022. Westover romped that Derby under CT Keane. But this time there are strong challengers from Ballydoyle. The filly Tuesday ran in 2022 from AP's stable. A late decision and ran as expected. The lads just supporting their own race. Favourite this time Ambient Friendly is not as convincing as Westover was either. He might not stay as RH sat tight until he saw CoT was gone by at Epsom. Why didn't RH and AF strike for home earlier. Did they think he would not stay? Los Angeles was unruly before the start at Epsom. Also he is the big white hope this time. I would find it very hard to back the favourite in view of the likelihood that AP has it all sorted. They surely know they can win and probably will. Good luck with your bets. Good luck to the favourite but not for me at 11/10.

well hell definetly stay if anything like his namesake, user friendly, brilliant horse, 

AF has to make all or get boxed in and beaten. A team of 5 working together can stop anything.

Ambiente Friendly don't stay,can't have that at all.
Won the Lingfield trial by nearly 5Ls & could've been more.
If he gets beat it won't be on stamina issues.

With AOB running a battalion there will be at least 2 pacesetters to try and stretch Ambiente Friendly, and hoodwink Havlin; Lost Angeles (a stout stayer) will be ridden patiently to pick up the pieces at the business end.

May the best horse win, Ambiente Friendly or not.

he can only be running Agenda and chief little rock (if they do run)as spoilers to the fav, christ they were out only 5 days ago down the field in a group2,

4 intended rnrs - Los Angeles,Grosvenor Square,Euphoric & The Euphrates.

One at the front setting a searching gallop; next two riding shotgun with Los Angeles next to the rails ready to take advantage near the business end. Their objective is keeping Ambiente Friendly as wide as possible.

If Ambiente Friendly encounters any traffic issue the race will be AOB's.

Draw's not even been done yet.

AOB ran 5 (I believe) against Cracksman. Anything could be engineered, if necessary.

didnt sTOUTE SAY HED NEVER RUN ANOTHER HORSE IN THE RACE WHEN HIS FAV GOT BULLIED BY ABOUT 6 OBRIEN HORSES , CANT REMEMBER THE HORSE MUST BE ABOUT 6-10 YEARS BACK

O'brien had around half the field when Jack Hobbs hammered 'em.
Didn't stop Hurricane Lane either.

^^ The pilot of Hurricane Lane rode with his thinking cap on that day; Crackmans...he did not. There's only one reason why AOB is running a battalion. It's not for the prize money or his charges need the run. It's solely to maximise the chances of his charges (winning); any assistance can only increase the percentage of winning eg numbers 1st.

Thinking cap and Rab Havlin now there's a thought.

'G Hall', please do not remind me. Mr Havlin's performance on Mehdaayih in the Epsom Oaks a few years ago is still fresh in my mind. I hope Ambiente Friendly will not be a repeat of that. Otherwise, retirement from race-riding in public is justified.

Elisjohn, was it Carlton House, owned by the Queen in the Irish Derby of 2011?

I had planned to stop backing Emily Upjohn after her last poor effort, but looking at her price against today's opposition in the Pretty Polly I just can't resist. I don't buy any of the excuses last time for her running so badly. She just wasn't in form and if we get a repeat of that it's a bet down the drain. There are some hopes she may still be able to return to her best. Gosden's horses are running much better at the moment, and apparently she's been working more like her old self recently, although it remains to be seen if that will transfer to the track. If she does fire today I'd expect her to beat this level of opposition and beat them easily.

I think we'd have seen the best of Emily Upjohn. She ought to have won the Epsom Oaks but for stumbling leaving the stall. I think she ought to have won today too over 10f - she was chinned; she stayed 14f well.

As this race is tomorrow Ambiente Friendly at 2.2 (here) is a backable price against Los Angeles (2f) who he beat by nearly 3 lengths. Unless for an unforeseen circumstance I'd expect the form to be upheld: Ambiente Friendly (1st); Los Angeles (2nd) - my prediction.

While the ground (softer than the description judging by the times and the visuals) and having to kick on so early might not have been ideal for Emily Upjohn she was beaten fair and square by the better filly on the day. That said, it was a massive improvement on the form she showed in the Coronation Cup. Gosden was right to think she had come on since then. Nevertheless, in my opinion this still didn't match the highest level she reached last year, such as when finishing second to Paddington in the Eclipse. Maybe she'll prove problematic to train and never reach that mark again, but if on her next start the trainer thinks she's progressed some more I might have to back her again if I like her chances.

For me, on paper this is a very weak Irish Derby. At the short prices any of the front two can win unbacked by me with no regrets. I have had a few quid on Grosvenor Square in the hope he has come on for the first start and can return to his Gp3 winning level of last year. I still think that would make him very competitive in a poor field.

The winning times in every race today at The Curragh were on the slow side. The forecast for tomorrow is clear sky with no precipitation; the ground at Epsom was good to soft.

I hope Havlin will sit on AF until the last 1/2 furlong (if necessary) tomorrow. Please do not chase after one of the AOB battalions 3f out. I do not want to see an El Gran Senor vs Secreto finish where the former got chinned despite going the better 1f out.

When I started the 2024 Derby thread last October, I said,

The first of the St Cloud races was won by Los Angeles benefitting from a good ride from Soumillon who put him on the golden highway of the stands rail.   This could have been the difference between him and Illinois (3rd).  Los Angeles is a big green colt and will have improvement next year and could be pointed towards one of the Derby's next year.

If I follow my own advice this afternoon, this could be the day for Los Angeles to take one of those Derbys.  (If I hadn't posted the above, I would probably have forgotten how green he was last year.  So it was really a note to myself.)

Derby form upheld. Travelled lovely and must have a big shout in the St Leger if they go that route. Another Group 1 for the lads.

Didn't think stamina would be an issue for Ambiente Friendly,
maybe it was in the end,faded a bit late on  & just held on
for 3RD.Then again btn just over a length.

with a rag beaten 3/4 not sure this did much for the derby form - which isn't to say city of troy isn't a good horse

I think City of Troy did very well to win at Epsom considering his position early on - I'd given him up for winning. But, I do not think the Irish Derby form is anything to shout about; Ambiente Friendly clearly ran out of puff; the runner up is exposed.

I do not think Los Angeles will ever win another proper 12f Gp 1 race outside Ireland. I firmly believe strategy and stamina won him the race yesterday. He'd a dream run courtesy of his stablemates; the runner-up was exposed; 3rd clearly running on fumes; 4th 1st time in Gp 1 company.