Horse Antepost
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Not the most exciting set of entries with mostly exposed older handicappers and very testing conditions likely.
Last year on heavy the whole field came over to the stands side with the winner Migration, flying home up the stands rail coming from last at half way. He struggled afterwards but clearly loves the conditions he will face on Saturday.
The favourite is last years second Awaal who runs off the same mark. Very consistent but keeps getting beaten so not for me at 4/1.
Indeed of the horses that ran well last year the value looks to be on fourth placed Migration at 33/1.
A couple of lighter raced four year olds are Liberty Lane and Vetiver, though the latter also has another entry in the Listed mile race. I’d also be worried about her stamina giving out late on.
Liberty Lane won over C&D at the Leger meeting and goes well fresh so I won’t be surprised if he goes off favourite, currently 5/1.
One other horse I quite liked at the prices was Lattam who has moved from William Haggas to Julie Camacho.
Won the Irish Lincoln on heavy going on debut last year and ran well in several good races after that. 33/1 available which seems fair.
Last year on heavy the whole field came over to the stands side with the winner Migration, flying home up the stands rail coming from last at half way. He struggled afterwards but clearly loves the conditions he will face on Saturday.
The favourite is last years second Awaal who runs off the same mark. Very consistent but keeps getting beaten so not for me at 4/1.
Indeed of the horses that ran well last year the value looks to be on fourth placed Migration at 33/1.
A couple of lighter raced four year olds are Liberty Lane and Vetiver, though the latter also has another entry in the Listed mile race. I’d also be worried about her stamina giving out late on.
Liberty Lane won over C&D at the Leger meeting and goes well fresh so I won’t be surprised if he goes off favourite, currently 5/1.
One other horse I quite liked at the prices was Lattam who has moved from William Haggas to Julie Camacho.
Won the Irish Lincoln on heavy going on debut last year and ran well in several good races after that. 33/1 available which seems fair.
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^Lattam was 25/1 not 33/1
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^Last years fourth was Majestic not Migration.
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Todays Irish Lincoln winner for Fozzy Stack a possible runner on Saturday.
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surprised Haggas hasn't got any entries
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Be some achievement to win both Lincoln's inside a week.
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Thanks Uncle , Vetiver and Thunder Ball at 20s , just hoping for the age related improvement .
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Chazzesmee (IRE) is a fav that I have laid: Horses making a quick return win all the time at in low level handicaps, but in a valuable race, like this, they don't do as well. The Lincoln looks really competitive this year, with more horses missing the cut, and a lot of those who have got in already have winning experience in races like this. Furthermore, if stands side is an advantage, like it was last year, the low numbers could be struggling.
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Maybe one slight difference to take into account with this well backed, (possibly well handicapped), runner is this has been the plan. It has been planned for some time. This is a good stable for this sort of thing. Also a stable that habitually starts well each flat season. It's not that because he has just won handy lets run again on Saturday. Good luck to anyone laying him, bookies on course will want to get him so could drift slightly. He could also be a Group horse.
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My lay was at 4.5 and, if I'd waited, I could have laid at 3.7
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The Irish Lincoln did not look a strong race beforehand - I backed the second each way.
Now as I said in my OP this does not look a strong Lincoln either - remember when Addeybb beat Lord Glitters, now that was a strong one.  |