City of Troy

Deserves to be odds on based on two year old form and should improve for extra distance.
If ‘the boys’ really fancy it on the day then it might go off as short as Frankel did (1/2).

Figgis that's a very interesting comment.

That's worthy of the aftertimers thread, but we all love you Figgis

Was at Newmarket for the Dewhurst and COT was very good imo. What struck me was that he didn't look that imposing in the paddock and I was a bit disappointed in his confirmation/size. It looks like everything has gone well during the Winter and he is a worthy favourite but at 4/5 not particularly of interest to me. Would be no surprise if he hoses up and everyone wants to see the next great guineas winner going on to the Derby and he could well be the next second coming. I love what Ballydoyle have achieved and their record is second to none but I am always looking for a bit of value and I thought that Alyanaabi is a horse of interest for the Guineas. Course winning form and a good second to COT in the Dewhurst on ground that would be far to slow for him and a horse with a turn of foot and one that will clearly relish the the Guineas trip imo. Still relatively unexposed and I've had a decent ew bet at 20/1. I think he represents the value of the race.

That is a perfectly reasonable synopsis Feltfair. No doubt he's got a few pounds to find but Alyanaabi has run with the choke out on a few occasions and put up credible performances. I think if Crowley can settle him and he gets faster ground he will run a good race and hope he can reach the frame.

Problem with Alyanaabi  i think will need fast pace and big luck in running. They will hold it up last based on all previous runs. Just not the type of horse that wins Group 1s with that run style imo - probably one for Ascot or Goodwood as agree its form is tempting

I have heard Aiden talk up 2Y0's/3Y0.s many times like it's part of his job to sell then and they are always special.

However when talking about City of Troy he was somehow different. He cam across as genuinely excited in the same as Nicky Henderson talking Constitution Hill mode,

Ryan was slightly embarrassed about the whole thing and gave the impression he had to restrain himself from saying "This horse is a machine and will piss up in the Guineas"

Aiden has won the 2000Guineas before but none of them look as if they could have held a candle to this horse.

I reckon he could be the best they have ever had

Tom Segal in todays post "Rosallion's form was boosted in spades last week, while City Of Troy's wasn't really. "

Rather bizzare statement when Haatem who had been hammered twice by COT ,6 & 8 lengths, won the Craven readily from Eben Shaddad last week , who ran 3rd to COT in the Dewhurst.

Coolmore have thrown the kitchen sink at this US sire line and it's not really produced european classic types

His full brother Unbelievable peaked in the June of his 3yo career, suggesting early maturity.
Only three runs by City Of Troy means people are using projections in place of a lot of evidence.
The weather has been so wet in Ireland cattle were only let into the fields about two weeks ago.
Has City Of Troy been trained on grass this year?  Has he done any speed work?
He has not run in 2014 so fitness not proven.
The A P O'Brien horses have not been impressing so far.
And again we hear that this one could be the best ever.

City Of Troy could win in a hack canter but I think there is an equal possibility he could finish down the field.

thats what i was alluding to on the 2,000 gns thread geezer ,cot the likeliest winner the odds tell us that but at 4/6 ish and what with the hype merchants drooling over him on saturdays morning line could well be shorter . for example  gotta lay out £60 to possibly win £40 ,a few unexposed and unbeaten types can be backed  for the same  £60 1.e £15 ew and you get 2 pops for your money and a place will get a return .

Looks like City Of Troy is going for The Eclipse. He's a shortie fav, similarly Los Angeles at 5/4 for the Irish Derby. I understand Ambiente Friendly is going anywhere City Of Troy is not. As such, what is the cost of supplementing Ambiente Friendly for the Irish Derby?

Thanks 'ImSoLucky!'. He'd be my selection if there was a book with him. I think connections of Los Angeles would like a Gp 1 status for him before sending him to stud, no doubt.

I do not think Ezeliya will be aimed at the Irish Derby. I thought she'd be given a breather for an Autumn campaign eg Prix Vermeille and then The Arc just like Tarnawa. But, Tarnawa was a 4yr old.

I'm still recovering from the guineas.

LOTD, as far as the Guineas goes I would still have COT finishing 3rd. Although I would now have him extremely close behind Rosallion as I make his Derby effort his best so far. Compared with past Derbys I make him a good winner. Bear in mind I am only rating the actual Derby performance, not how easily people might think it was achieved, or how much improvement may be in the tank, etc. Compared with the previous 10 Derbys, I have it better than 7 and worse than 3, so for sure I would regard him as a good winner. I don't, however, have him as improved much from 2 to 3. Nearly everything else I have read states that there is sure to be a lot more to come from him, whereas I have serious doubts.

Big thank - you as usual you win and you lose Figgis had it on doubles at above evens second COT leg so had a fair position traded a bit at around 1.8 for a couple cases of pom pom rest as they say is history. I just thought the pattern of getting dosh on looked interesting and unusual at the same time. Derby I had a bit of an interest enough to make my knees knock so it helped but could have been so much better. Hope you are good. Are two or three to focus on now the guineas winner at Ascot is home and hosed William said it had turbo charge like nothing else when interviewed at the weekend and my beloved Chelters has to be Constitution all in and the greatest thing in the GC the favourite what an oss.

when i read your post then Imp, i wondered what you were talking about, but i see where youre coming from now, well if aiden said to me its wednesday tomorrow id be checking the calender, so yes he could well be rerouted  esp if we get a good winner of the pow next week, eg White birch ,

Breeders Cup Classic could be his aim,no mention of the Arc.
York or Leopardstown before then.

Many three year olds have cut through the pack.

Liberator of the oppressed

Just to let you know, I have already had to revise my earlier rating of this year's Derby.  When rating on times you're including other races on the card in the equation, and, after the race, I took the highest plausible view I could take. The truth is I was a bit unsure about rating some of the other performances quite so high, but I took the view I would rather give them the benefit of the doubt and see how things panned out in future, rather than run the risk of underrating this year's Derby.

I now believe I overrated the Derby. Making the comparison with the previous 10 Derbys again, I now rate 7 better performances and only 3 worse. That isn't to say City Of Troy is an inferior racehorse to all of those better winning performances (I already have him 4lbs higher when winning the Dewhurst), just that this year's Derby didn't take as much winning.

Some people may have the opinion that he'll improve on that. As I have said, I previously had him 4lb higher, so I couldn't say they're wrong. What I would say though is given how the race was run (fast) I personally don't believe there was an excuse on the day for the runners not performing better than they did. Even though Ambiente Friendly appeared to run a fine race I would be very wary about taking a short price about him in future Gp1s.