City of Troy

Deserves to be odds on based on two year old form and should improve for extra distance.
If ‘the boys’ really fancy it on the day then it might go off as short as Frankel did (1/2).

Could win a below par Guineas, as the same yard's Camelot did, but no better than placed in an average year.

Figgis that's a very interesting comment.

JTOTD, when he won the Superlative, like many others, I thought he could be something special, although I did have a nagging doubt whether the form was as outstanding as it appeared. I backed him in the Dewhurst, but, although he won well, unfortunately the result confirmed my doubt.

That's worthy of the aftertimers thread, but we all love you Figgis

Can't be an after time when you mention you are backing him before the race.

Was at Newmarket for the Dewhurst and COT was very good imo. What struck me was that he didn't look that imposing in the paddock and I was a bit disappointed in his confirmation/size. It looks like everything has gone well during the Winter and he is a worthy favourite but at 4/5 not particularly of interest to me. Would be no surprise if he hoses up and everyone wants to see the next great guineas winner going on to the Derby and he could well be the next second coming. I love what Ballydoyle have achieved and their record is second to none but I am always looking for a bit of value and I thought that Alyanaabi is a horse of interest for the Guineas. Course winning form and a good second to COT in the Dewhurst on ground that would be far to slow for him and a horse with a turn of foot and one that will clearly relish the the Guineas trip imo. Still relatively unexposed and I've had a decent ew bet at 20/1. I think he represents the value of the race.

Alyanaabi beaten at Ascot by both Rosallion and Ancient Wisdom at Ascot but as stated below a good second to City of Troy in the Dewhurst. He is the only one that hasn`t won a Group 1 as a two year old and I would consider it unlikely that one of the above three would not beat him again. That said an each way bet at 20-1 is a perfectly reasonable selection.
I have no ante post interest but fully expect City of Troy to confirm his superiority and will pick a couple to lay on the day.If it were to come up really soft a rethink will be necessary.

That is a perfectly reasonable synopsis Feltfair. No doubt he's got a few pounds to find but Alyanaabi has run with the choke out on a few occasions and put up credible performances. I think if Crowley can settle him and he gets faster ground he will run a good race and hope he can reach the frame.

Now I might be wrong what makes this year so different is the constant wanting to get four or five hundred lumps on for the guineas around 1.85 a sort of disproportionate amount to usual lesserish lumps for the Derby. Might be wrong usually am cannot remember that regularity ever previously which would suggest to me highly likely is somebody cannot get on anywhere else hopefully a geezer in the know or close. If it is this plot is coming together nicely. I'm not bothered about the price necessarily good to see loads of money stacking up I'm loaded up now would just like the horse to get there firstly and win impressively.

Problem with Alyanaabi  i think will need fast pace and big luck in running. They will hold it up last based on all previous runs. Just not the type of horse that wins Group 1s with that run style imo - probably one for Ascot or Goodwood as agree its form is tempting

I think that's a fair summary racing6699 and I am very much in agreement with those comments. They are looking at the Greenham as a prep but the ground will dictate. If he does go straight to the Guineas I would worry about him running a bit too freely as he has done in his races. COT on the other hand settles really well and he looks pretty bombproof. I think it's a fascinating race if they all get there but not sure they will run Ancient Wisdom as I think Appleby has stated that the Dante might be the race to start him off in. Rosallion Iberian and Alyanaabi form all ties in with each other and it will probably be COT first and fresh air second.

I have heard Aiden talk up 2Y0's/3Y0.s many times like it's part of his job to sell then and they are always special.

However when talking about City of Troy he was somehow different. He cam across as genuinely excited in the same as Nicky Henderson talking Constitution Hill mode,

Ryan was slightly embarrassed about the whole thing and gave the impression he had to restrain himself from saying "This horse is a machine and will piss up in the Guineas"

Aiden has won the 2000Guineas before but none of them look as if they could have held a candle to this horse.

I reckon he could be the best they have ever had

Think you're right. The market would suggest it as well as everything  else is on the drift and a large drift at that. Chandlers (Tabor owned) were going the shortest when I last looked and that looks a pretty strong indicator. Can't see what beats it.

Tom Segal in todays post "Rosallion's form was boosted in spades last week, while City Of Troy's wasn't really. "

Rather bizzare statement when Haatem who had been hammered twice by COT ,6 & 8 lengths, won the Craven readily from Eben Shaddad last week , who ran 3rd to COT in the Dewhurst.

Tom Segal = bookies' man = a gravy-trainer = no self-respect.

Coolmore have thrown the kitchen sink at this US sire line and it's not really produced european classic types

Most have APs have been flopping on first run. Thats a worry don't you think? I'm concerned enough to have considered bailing out but things started to feel slightly better after Kyprios and his first 2yo hosed up. Some more of those type of clear cut wins would be nice before Guineas!

His full brother Unbelievable peaked in the June of his 3yo career, suggesting early maturity.
Only three runs by City Of Troy means people are using projections in place of a lot of evidence.
The weather has been so wet in Ireland cattle were only let into the fields about two weeks ago.
Has City Of Troy been trained on grass this year?  Has he done any speed work?
He has not run in 2014 so fitness not proven.
The A P O'Brien horses have not been impressing so far.
And again we hear that this one could be the best ever.

City Of Troy could win in a hack canter but I think there is an equal possibility he could finish down the field.

Like Kinc has Posted, Cot could hack up, or be pulled up 1/2 up the course, then win the derby, exac8like Auguste Roding, it's a Eachway race.

thats what i was alluding to on the 2,000 gns thread geezer ,cot the likeliest winner the odds tell us that but at 4/6 ish and what with the hype merchants drooling over him on saturdays morning line could well be shorter . for example  gotta lay out £60 to possibly win £40 ,a few unexposed and unbeaten types can be backed  for the same  £60 1.e £15 ew and you get 2 pops for your money and a place will get a return .

I've been lucky. He gives me the 2nd best antepost since Don Cossack; it's a low 4-figure sum win or lose. A win will create a similar scenario for The Derby and Oaks.

Looks like City Of Troy is going for The Eclipse. He's a shortie fav, similarly Los Angeles at 5/4 for the Irish Derby. I understand Ambiente Friendly is going anywhere City Of Troy is not. As such, what is the cost of supplementing Ambiente Friendly for the Irish Derby?

£60k

Thanks 'ImSoLucky!'. He'd be my selection if there was a book with him. I think connections of Los Angeles would like a Gp 1 status for him before sending him to stud, no doubt.

and mine Imp, regardless who the jockey is , but im going to put a spanner in the race, could Weld drclare his filly , now that would be great

I do not think Ezeliya will be aimed at the Irish Derby. I thought she'd be given a breather for an Autumn campaign eg Prix Vermeille and then The Arc just like Tarnawa. But, Tarnawa was a 4yr old.

Figgis could I ask and forgive me if you've mentioned this somewhere else what was the time/speed figure for the Derby good or disappointing sectionals if you have them and in the general scheme of things where does COT rate in the all time best standings? I'm still recovering from the guineas.

I'm still recovering from the guineas.

LOTD, as far as the Guineas goes I would still have COT finishing 3rd. Although I would now have him extremely close behind Rosallion as I make his Derby effort his best so far. Compared with past Derbys I make him a good winner. Bear in mind I am only rating the actual Derby performance, not how easily people might think it was achieved, or how much improvement may be in the tank, etc. Compared with the previous 10 Derbys, I have it better than 7 and worse than 3, so for sure I would regard him as a good winner. I don't, however, have him as improved much from 2 to 3. Nearly everything else I have read states that there is sure to be a lot more to come from him, whereas I have serious doubts.

LOTO, apologies for the wrong acronym. I must've been thinking liberator of the depressed

Big thank - you as usual you win and you lose Figgis had it on doubles at above evens second COT leg so had a fair position traded a bit at around 1.8 for a couple cases of pom pom rest as they say is history. I just thought the pattern of getting dosh on looked interesting and unusual at the same time. Derby I had a bit of an interest enough to make my knees knock so it helped but could have been so much better. Hope you are good. Are two or three to focus on now the guineas winner at Ascot is home and hosed William said it had turbo charge like nothing else when interviewed at the weekend and my beloved Chelters has to be Constitution all in and the greatest thing in the GC the favourite what an oss.

Now that connections of Ambiente Friendly are opting for the Irish Derby could City Of Troy do a switcheroo at the last minute eg run in the Irish Derby instead? He's still entered for the race.

when i read your post then Imp, i wondered what you were talking about, but i see where youre coming from now, well if aiden said to me its wednesday tomorrow id be checking the calender, so yes he could well be rerouted  esp if we get a good winner of the pow next week, eg White birch ,

Augustine Rodin scraped home last year, in lucky to win in a poor race. AP wont allow that happen again. So I have no fears the plan is as the Great-Man AP has stated. CoT gets a longer rest after the Epsom victory. I think also Los Angeles should be favourite as James F and Rob don't do Derby's.

Breeders Cup Classic could be his aim,no mention of the Arc.
York or Leopardstown before then.

He will not go to The Arc esp if he'd held up. I believe he'd have issue cutting thro' the field unlike Epsom where it was confined to 3 yr olds; others will box him in, and coming round the pack is no option either.

I'll only back Ambiente Friendly on the day of the race in Ireland if City Of Troy is a no show.

Many three year olds have cut through the pack.

He's still in the Irish Derby this sunday. Why? He's fav for The Eclipse at Sandown on 7th July.

Liberator of the oppressed

Just to let you know, I have already had to revise my earlier rating of this year's Derby.  When rating on times you're including other races on the card in the equation, and, after the race, I took the highest plausible view I could take. The truth is I was a bit unsure about rating some of the other performances quite so high, but I took the view I would rather give them the benefit of the doubt and see how things panned out in future, rather than run the risk of underrating this year's Derby.

I now believe I overrated the Derby. Making the comparison with the previous 10 Derbys again, I now rate 7 better performances and only 3 worse. That isn't to say City Of Troy is an inferior racehorse to all of those better winning performances (I already have him 4lbs higher when winning the Dewhurst), just that this year's Derby didn't take as much winning.

Some people may have the opinion that he'll improve on that. As I have said, I previously had him 4lb higher, so I couldn't say they're wrong. What I would say though is given how the race was run (fast) I personally don't believe there was an excuse on the day for the runners not performing better than they did. Even though Ambiente Friendly appeared to run a fine race I would be very wary about taking a short price about him in future Gp1s.

Figgis I had an up and more down it felt that anyway at Ascot bet like a plank most of the time every race and I've been out in the wilderness contemplating life mostly drinking pom pom by the shed load nothing to be proud of I know watching the time go by I'm back now refreshed and hope you are good. you are without doubt one of the good guys on here. I need to rethink my impulsive lunatic strategy need a good first day Ascot and Chelters that didn't happen backed Kyprios pretty well ante post in many doubles that saved a bit of bacon but hey ho. On to Goodwood I'm going to study hard and will post my selections. I have a mad theory about tricasts that will be the next milestone in my betting. Maybe I need to buy another leg in something for an interest or get a proper good greyhound. Oi Oi.

Travers stakes or Judmonte after the eclipse?

travers stakes would be very bold - more likely the st marks basilica route - irish champion stakes then the stud farm

Going to be very short for the Eclipse with no White Birch

very weak renewal - g3 standard apart from the ballydoyle horses

To borrow a phrase from 'acey' City Of Troy at 1.34 he's as juicy as Labour winning the election. A thumping win, I predict.

Lots of talk about City Of Troy hating the ground. The RP say he was nowhere near the level he showed at Epsom. I have his performance just 1lb lower than in the (weak) Derby.

I am shocked that a Derby winner won another race.

I understand he won the Derby. But, I do not think it was not a strong renewal; the 2nd did not uphold the form; the 3rd was "assisted" in the Irish version.

The jury is still out on The Eclipse by some, me included.

Jul 7, 2024 -- 12:34PM, Figgis wrote:

Lots of talk about City Of Troy hating the ground. The RP say he was nowhere near the level he showed at Epsom. I have his performance just 1lb lower than in the (weak) Derby.

If you rate his run 1lb below his Derby win, what would you put the Eclipse second and third on.

what would you put the Eclipse second and third on

I rate them exactly how they ran to the beaten margins on the day. Whether I'd expect the second to repeat that next time is another matter.

in comparison with O'Brien's previous Derby winners, I rate the actual level of his Derby winning performance equal to Camelot's Derby win (which looked impressive but was nothing special), it was significantly behind his best Derby winner Galileo, in my view.

I cant believe the second and third showed any improvement on their Official ratings. The second was rated 2lb higher than the third and beat him
1L. So they have just about run to the ounce. I make City Of Troy running to 116. 8lb below the Official rating. See what they come up with tomorrow.

I don't have Ghostwriter improving either, he ran a similar race in the Guineas. I have Al Riffa running his best ever race as an older horse, but he went backwards after winning the National Stakes as a 2yo. Plus many runners appear to show improved form when ridden in that manner, held up in rear off a strong pace then staying on as the pace collapses. I can't say if he will back that up but I won't be backing him to do so.

Do you give a figure to horses performances.

Yes that's my way of working. I prefer to rate the performance than to state such a horse is, say, a 116 horse, for example.

Jul 8, 2024 -- 3:07PM, clacton wrote:

I cant believe the second and third showed any improvement on their Official ratings. The second was rated 2lb higher than the third and beat him1L. So they have just about run to the ounce. I make City Of Troy running to 116. 8lb below the Official rating. See what they come up with tomorrow.

The Official Handicapper left the second and third on their marks and called City Of Troy's performance figure 116.

Well done with your predicted assessment of COT's performance.