Forums

Horse Antepost

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
nocturnal
11 Dec 23 23:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 4,237 | Blogger: nocturnal's blog
8/12 aged 6-8
3/12 favs
7/12 top 3 betting
6/12 won lto
12/12 ran within 49 days
11/12 ran at chepstow
7/12 won at chepstow
5/12 won over 28f or more
11/12 min 5 chase runs
10/12 rated 131 or above
11/12 min 2 runs current season
7/12 won current season

(The Stats Don't Lie)

Just over two weeks to one of the big festive handicaps.

42 Entered,OR range between 153-to 115,some difference.

Age no particular barrier over these staying distances,we saw that last weekend with Chambard and Truckers Lodge.

All 12 recent winners had run within 49 days,11 of those had 2 runs,fitness certainly a big factor judged on that alone.

Class can prevail,Native and Elegant carried 11-12 and 11-08 respectively,both were Gold Cup class.

Removing both Tizzard winners paints a different picture,the next highest weight carrier was 10-10 back in 2018.

The last 4 winners,nothing over 10-04,Interesting to see what actually makes it into the final 20 lower down.

The course stat is another big factor,only really on the head-on pictures do we see how undulating that final straight is.

On a side note,very interested to see who the young claimer rides,with this race run in memory of his family,he has improved markedly from last season.

From that list of 42 .... there were 4 horses that caught my attention,that might change come race day (Note Disclaimer)

Cloudy Glen (143)
Truckers Lodge (141)
Broken Halo (133)
Fontaine Collonges (133)

Three of those ran in the London National,with a couple not making the finnish,granted similar ground we will see if they are entered at 5 day stage.

As for having the trial at Chepstow on the 9th dec,that sums up some of the race planning we see,needs looking at.

Also think the sponsors are missing a trick here .... 4lb max penalty,put up a bonus for winning both the trial and National itself,and for those placed in both.

Just one other point,this was once a proper jumping test,either the horses are getting bigger .... or some other unknown reason.

Early dart at Cloudy Glen .... In the hope he makes it from the posh ones 4 entries.

Will stick up some thoughts on any of those 4 that make it,after decs.

All opinions welcome .... Always a decent puzzle this one.
Pause Switch to Standard View Welsh National 2023
Show More
Loading...
Report DIFERENT GRAVY 12 December 12, 2023 11:45 AM GMT
Monbeg Genius @ 6-1  4 places
Report GI MAC December 12, 2023 7:32 PM GMT
Entries that are interesting me currently:

Iwilldoit
Easy winner a couple of years ago and hasn't raced much since. Nice prep, must be considered despite the higher mark this time around.

Threeunderthrufive
25/1 is available which is interesting as he is a decent, relatively young, staying chaser. Has been creeping up in the weights though, but can see him run well. Decent ew price.

Galia Des Liteaux
Can't quite understand why this one is 50/1, perhaps not a definite runner? Good novice from last season, running well against good opposition. Loves a bog, can see this test being right up her street.

Dunboyne
Ran a decent season opener, I think the trip will suit this one.

Only The Bold
I keep going back to this one. I've a hunch they have plotted this one up after he won two races in the mud for his new stable. Pure guesswork on my part. Very tempted by some 66/1 on offer!

Fontaine Collonges
Well fancied on Saturday but never got passed the first. 50/1 for this, given the trainer he has to be on the radar.

Super Survivor
One of the favourites and you can see why, decent bit of course form from last season, looks primed to run a big race which he has been aimed at.

Didero Vallis
100/1, thought he ran well from 19lb out the hcp in that X country nonsense!

I can see Cloudy Glen running well noc, I've got it into my head you need to catch this one fresh, he's a big price nonetheless.
Report nocturnal December 12, 2023 9:17 PM GMT
Evening both .... Certainly an interesting line-up this far out.

The Ultima and the Sodexo earlier in the season at Ascot,will both be mentioned in the build-up.

From a handicapping perspective,not unreasonable to use either as a starting point.

But .... both were given as "Soft" on the day,neither race were anywhere near that going description,based on standard times.

Delve a little deeper into Corach's National,gd/sft supposedly,just 6.62 secs outside standard.

In the cold light of day,some of these handicaps look really competitive,yet the results show a completely different story.

Last year was no different,Truckers is a decent yardstick,he was beaten 28 1/4 lengths.

Jockey bookings above all else,is what I will be waiting on,be at least 10 who I would not back with counterfeit,whatever the result.

You might be right GI re CG,I go back to that 2021 renewal,should have got 40 days for that one Wink

All part of the fun.
Report pmt December 13, 2023 6:06 PM GMT
Nassalam is an intended runner off 145. His rider takes off 3lbs so he has 11st 3 to carry.and he is off 149 in future. He was 12 lengths clear in the trial last Saturday  before being eased to a walk and had an easy race.We are confident of another  big run.blinkers transformed the horse, he is so much sharper over the fences with them on.
Report GI MAC December 13, 2023 6:11 PM GMT
Best of luck pmt...
Report GI MAC December 26, 2023 12:24 PM GMT
Ground conditions will be interesting, currently g/s, rain is forecast however.
Report bobbyjo December 27, 2023 3:09 PM GMT
Congratulations PMT. What a performance !
Report nocturnal December 27, 2023 4:23 PM GMT
"Unchallenged" ... Just about sums it up,mighty performance for a 6yr old in that ground.

Take a bow the whole team,patience rewarded PMT,delighted for everyone involved.
Report pmt December 27, 2023 10:09 PM GMT
thanks guys, just got back from chepstow, Grand National will be his only other race this year.
Report nocturnal December 27, 2023 11:43 PM GMT
From little Acorns ....

That would appear the next logical step,staying chaser goes Aintree route,another handicap.

Native and Elegant took this in on their way to bigger targets,both caried more weight,but were they as Impressive?

Can we put a rating on todays performance .... A wild guess brings me to 160 ish,with a large P attached.

Don,t be fooled by either of their victories being on soft ground,both were nearer good ground,Native beat a 13 yr old by a 1 and 3/4 lengths.

Left handed undulating track,we know historically from Native alone,that the form from this race CAN be top class.

Granted he might need a certain set of conditions,but so does every other horse,the staying division remains wide open as we speak.

I can remember people laughed at Natives credentials,they pointed to Cue Card etc ... the rest is history.

He deserves a decent break agreed,but there is that little thought .... just how good is he?

As for Botox .... get him in a qualifier for pertemps,I would love to see him get similar ground to today,he remains a horse with a degree of potential.

Nass met every single trend above,apart from the distance stat,he was the only qualifier when I glanced through,worth noting.

Just a thought.
Report pmt December 30, 2023 12:13 AM GMT
they have made Nassalam 8/1 fav for the Ultima which is silly because he wont run until the Grand National. Botox wont be running in handicaps over hurdles. I'm thinking of the Cesarewitch or similar long distance handicap.
Report nocturnal December 31, 2023 1:26 PM GMT
He's a young horse who is up and coming' - could Gary Moore dare to live the Gold Cup dream with Nassalam?

£780 to enter him on Tuesday ..... Would you be tempted?
Report pmt January 1, 2024 10:59 AM GMT
We are going to enter for the Gold Cup and will run if its heavy. He got 161 from the handicapper.Thats close to top weight for the Grand National.
Report nocturnal January 1, 2024 6:16 PM GMT
That was my thinking PMT ... 161 carried 11-06 in the 2023 renewal of the GN.

Thats a big weight for any horse,but on his favoured ground,he would have to enter calculations.

Chelt,Aintree,Newbury ... The list is growing of courses that do not drain naturally,which for proper NH bred horses is a minefield.

Unless it rains literally in the preceding 24 hrs,virtually no chance of soft ground at any of them.

As for the state of the fences,no fallers in the welsh national,some of them at Chepstow looked like brush hurdles,sorry state of affairs.

Two horses on an upward curve,be following both over the coming months,exciting times ahead,very best of luck for 2024.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com