b.c . cup

As I've said before I'm not generally a big backer of 2yos. I'm also not a regular bettor on the Breeders Cup, as, even though we get our share of winners, I usually think there's some guesswork involved with how the European runners will handle it over there after a busy season. However, I have to back Big Evs after his much improved win last time out. I have him up 13lbs, going from a Gp3 sprinter to a genuine Gp1 performer. Hopefully he will handle the travelling and new environment, as I reckon he will be extremely hard to beat if he does.

I prefer Locked over Muth and Timberlake in the bc Juv  just on the video on the DRF Free card.  He went so wide throughout at Keeneland and really re-rallied in the straight after looking beaten. And still did a beyer of 93.  His previous beyer (96) is the better than his 2 market rivals in this race.  But Prince of MOnaco has done 103, so I will take the cowards path and just lay Muth if 4.0 or shorter.

Got matched "at the death" as John McCririck used to say, at 4.0
After this I will have to get the free drf racecard again tommorrow!

Forgot to say it before:  Good Call Figgis with Big Evs!

Marksman ta. Well done with the lay, I wouldn't have had a clue there.

The (excellent) free DRF racecard today is for the BC Classic:

There are 3 horses in contention for favouritism and, as always, I am looking to get favs beat and I will lay them if I don't like them, so this looks to be my kind of race.
Betting shows direct from the track are now being shown on the DRF card next to the ML odds.
Latest show at 16.42 GMT:   3/2 Arabian Knight,  5/2 White Abarrio, 6/1 Ushba T (jpn)  8/1 bar.

I like USHBA TESORO best of the 3 market leaders.  He really impressed winning Dubai World Cup under an unbelievably confident ride:  At the back and jock not concerned (even when turning for home) despite Algiers cruising into the lead without much apparent effort.  It was the way he ran to the line so positively that I also liked.  He is on a long winning run since his first run on dirt which was a defeat in Japan in the mud.  He produced a Timeform rating of 123 in Dubai and using the reliable formula of subtracting 15 to get a Beyer, he goes into today with a Beyer of 108, the 2nd highest in the field.
The highest Beyer was done by White Abarrio (110) but on watching the video (and looking at his history of performing at a considerably lower standard up until that day), I just don't believe it.  Every thing went right for him that day in the Witney.  It was only a 6 runner race and the 2/5 fav was all wrong at the stalls and was slowly into stride, then given a poor ride by suddenly being rushed up to the leaders approaching the home turn.
Arabian Knight was gifted a soft lead in the Pacific Classic, which he won from the front.  Previously, in the Haskell, when he was taken on for the lead, he faded tamely, just hanging on for 3rd.
Also, his Beyers are not up to standard for a race like today's. (101 in the Pacific Classic).
So, for me, Arabian Knight and White Abarrio are the ones to lay when (or if) they hit the front of the market.

I suppose you can never be sure if a horse will stay until it proves it but I'll be amazed if Inspiral doesn't stay this far. I'd even fancy her to stay 12f. I have her latest win as a career best and wouldn't be surprised if there's more to come. Having backed Warm Heart in the Irish Oaks it was annoying to see her given an indifferent ride that day and go on to win a couple of Gp1s unbacked by me. Of course she can win again today, but if both fillies run up to their best there's a big gulf between them in ability.

When I saw the card I was honestly expecting to see Inspiral around evens. I make her an odds on chance, as, for me, there's no question she's by far the best runner, and it's all about whether she runs her race or not.

This is such a sharp track (even by USA turf standards) and the going so firm that she should have no problems getting the trip.  I just hope Frankie keeps his cool (which, in the distant past, he sometimes didn't).  Being interviewed now ... looks nervous... But I would be too.

Great shout, Fig.

Well done  Figgis  spotting those odds.   He did keep his cool, he rode her just as I would have, (from the hiding place of my own home, where no one can blame me if it goes wrong).

Great stuff Figgis you are having a great Breeders Cup meeting. No guesswork from Figgis. Del Mar 2024. I can you going.

Marksman come out now from behind that sofa. Jerry Bailey fancies that White Abarrio, is very upbeat about it. Good luck with your lays.

A tip from Jerry Bailey is equivalent to a tip from Ed Chamberlain!

No, I take that back. When it comes to racing knowledge and tipping, Ed Chamberlain is right down at the bottom of the pile.  Jerry was a top jockey and racing is his life.  Sorry Jerry, please accept my apologies (if you are on Betfair and read this forum).

Cheers lads, bit close for comfort though

Managed to lay White Abarrio now that he is fav.  Got to get the other one if I can.

wd Jerry Bailey,  I am not worthy...

turf sprint:
I prefer Live in the Dream over Motorious in this one.  Looked at the vids and LitD needs the drop back to 5f

dmn suspended too late

I was going to lay Motorious at the death when he went fav

Elite Power looked such a champion sprinter.  Retired now to Juddmonte stud.  Could be a real sire of sprinters given how powerfully built he is.
Tonight was not so much a learning curve as a reminder to stick to what I should be doing:
Which is; if I'm betting close to the off, to bet first and type on here later.  Not the other way round.

8 from 9 winning fans.

Tough night for layers..

Favs

Tell me about it.  I was relying on BT pics which are delayed about 15 secs. But as I said above, I shouldn't have been typing on here until I'd got my bets submitted.  And of course Motorious would go and get beaten..

RIP Cody

Jesus! That was sudden. Cody was only watching his horse win yesterday night. I hope your new world is kinder to you this time. RIP Cody!

Tragic news.

How strange life is. The horse goes and toughs it out to another BC triumph with this little brave lad at the track to see it and then passing on the next day. RIP brave boy.