Horse Antepost

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20 Oct 23 21:43
Date Joined: 13 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 1,791 | Blogger: .Marksman.'s blog
I will be laying Paddington at around 3.0.  The form of his Group 1 wins have not worked out, with the exception of Inspiral , who has won twice since being 5th in the Sussex.  But Inspiral didn't give her running on that occasion.
But Paddington did not look happy in the International and, from turning, for home his head was turned to one side and he did not go through with his challenge.  He looked like a horse who had had enough.  A 2 month break may not be enough after a busy campaign.
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Report Figgis October 20, 2023 10:08 PM BST
I have Paddington running right up to his Eclipse form last time out. However, I have him 4lbs higher over this trip. Impossible to know if he'll hold his form for another run but he has had a decent break. On the International form I have Nashwa 1lb ahead of him and she's equally as effective back at the mile. The negative is she was below that level last time at Leopardstown so needs to bounce back. I have Chaldean 3lbs behind Paddington but needs to rediscover his Guineas form after a couple of poor efforts.

The one I'd be against is Tahiyra. In my view she's just an ordinary Guineas winner. I give her credit for consistency but that has been aided by running against the worst 3yo fillies I've seen in along while. For me, she needs the other three all to under perform for her to win here, which could happen but is less likely than her odds.
Report Figgis October 20, 2023 10:10 PM BST
Sorry, obviously Tahiyra didn't quite win the Guineas, but I rate her only on par with an ordinary winner.
Report .Marksman. October 20, 2023 10:17 PM BST
I don't think it was just the trip at York:  He looked uncomfortable with 4f to go and didn't seem to want a battle.  By contrast, in the Eclipse he was really up for it.
Report Figgis October 20, 2023 10:35 PM BST
Yes, it did look a bit like that but I think he was only uncomfortable because he was trying to chase down a superior runner. Despite backing him in the Eclipse I didn't think it was as comfortable a win as some were saying after the race. On times alone I have him running exactly to the same mark in both races. I'm positive he's a few pounds better at a mile. As you say though, it was quite a hard race last time and on the back of a busy season I wouldn't be totally confident of him running his race again.
Report penzance October 21, 2023 12:08 AM BST
I can see the ground suiting him better than @York.
Wasn't a bad run anyway,not as though he was hammered,
only just btn over 1L.Looking forward to this race &
he'll do for me dropping back to the Mile.
Report impossible123 October 21, 2023 10:58 AM BST
I think this could be Paddington's last hurrah before he's packed- off to stud duty. And, at 9/4 is a good-sending off for backers too. His protagonists have ground and trip concerns in my opinion. He owes punters nothing.
Report brandyontherocks October 21, 2023 3:36 PM BST
Well played, Marksman
Report Figgis October 21, 2023 3:37 PM BST
Well done .Marksman. Not the biggest surprise he didn't perform today, but braver than me to lay him at the odds.
Report penzance October 21, 2023 3:38 PM BST
Your dough was never in doubt from a long way out.
Report .Marksman. October 21, 2023 3:52 PM BST
Thanks everyone.
Happy to lay at 2.9!
Report impossible123 October 21, 2023 4:44 PM BST
Ya well done 'Marksman'. Paddington was struggling fairly early on; the winner set-off as if chased by a turbo-charged moose.
Report Figgis October 25, 2023 9:21 PM BST
The RP and Timeform have the QE2 result as the best mile performance of the season. It's easy to see how taking the result at face value would lead to that conclusion. Likewise, race 'standardisation' bollocks would also lead there. Not the first time Timeform have gone overboard about a soft ground performance. My take on it is that Big Rock merely replicated his best previous effort, the 5 length thrashing of Horizon Dore. The rest might as well have stayed in their boxes for all the running they did. I'd take Paddington, Nashwa and even Tahiyra to dismiss Big Rock at the peak of their powers. Will be interesting to see BR next season.
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