2000 Guineas...

The Autumn Stakes time at Newmarket has been validated.

Hands up, Ancient Wisdom was clearly the best today and did it well enough on bad ground. I will have to check later times, it could turn out to be a better performance than I think, but at the moment I can't see me rating it highly, with Devil's Point and Deira Mile not far behind. Dancing Gemini and Diego Velazquez look to have run below par. Definitely a heavy ground time even rating Ancient Wisdom on the lower side.

Don`t think Newmarket in May on good ground will suit him.

Dancing Gemini was running a decent race until failing to stay. DV was just below par, possibly due to the ground. With those two out of the way AW didn't have much to beat. That said, I did like everything about the way he went about it was pulling away at the finish. They went slow early so whatever won was never going to win by a big margin. It's possible I was wrong to rate his Autumn Stakes win on the lower side, but until I see him do it again in a fast run race I'll cautiously keep him low. Even if I retrospectively end up rating his Autumn Stakes win as high as I plausibly could I think he'll need to improve for a Guineas, even on soft ground.

* about it and he was pulling away at the finish

brandyontherocks
O'Brien's only got 1 horse entered for the Juvenile by the looks of it,Johannes Brahms.
Going by the books,he's a no show.

That post was a load of old cobblers,he's got the front 2 in the mkt,
River Tiber & Unquestionable.
I must've had the wrong race up.

Would like to see a big performance from the 'River'tonight. He can win. A win might resurrect my ante-post singles and doubles (Fallen Angel 1000gns), or fade out of contention for the big ones in 2024. Was 7/2, 3/1 but gone short enough now with Frankie dangerous around the spud-garden that goes as Santa Anita. Desperate track that would suit greyhounds better. Well come on the 'River' try front run this lot.(paddies seem keen on avoiding him big time).

PS 'where's harry call with his advices'. Always on top of the USA stuuf.

River Tiber N/R.

O’Brien said: “We're thinking at the moment that we'd probably start City Of Troy at Newmarket and maybe Henry Longfellow would start in France. Obviously it can change but that’s what we're thinking at the moment.”

ive been having a few quid every so often on ancient wisdom at 30 ish on here ,charlie apples said possible he will go for the gns rather than the dante asits a better fit time wise ,city of troy all the rage but odds on not for me ,ancient wisdom looks like further than the gns will suit ideally but got the job done well in the futurity after being  headed about 3 furlongs out ,looks like a horse that could pull out a fair bit more if needed . by dubawi with plenty of stamina in the bloodline and should be even better as a 3yo he could well put it up to the fav.

ancient wisdoms main target is the derby and the gns is the ideal trial , go toe to toe with the fav and see who blinks first he may get done for speed but if the going is on the soft side his stamina should come into play in the closing stages . a lot depends how they play it imo  unlikely to  win it with a turn of foot coming from behind but slugging it out up front with cot would give him a  chance .

just been through a few replays of ancient wisdoms races last season and he digs deep, a few times he has looked as though he might be in a little trouble but finds plenty and ends up winning cosily , has been in a few little  tussles  but comes out on top which is a good trait to have ,the fav may be the next coming but has had things his own way in most of his races and not yet been in a battle ,he may be so good he can breeze through his races without seeing another rival but in all likelyhood he will have to show that he finds off the bridle at some point then we can see what he is really made of. at the prices and what we have seen so far happy to be playing at double figgas rather than odds on.

Foyleswar, contrary to my earlier opinion of Ancient Wisdom, I think that's a very good call. I know AW appeared to be highly rated by the yard right from the start but I'd never been able to rate him high myself. So when he was well beaten when fav in the Listed race I wasn't surprised. Next time out, on the face of it, he put up a very good time in comparison with the Dewhurst. Taking it at face value I had him only 1lb behind COT. However, I was reluctant to believe that he had improved 15lbs from Ascot and thought it was probable that he looked impressive due to the testing conditions over a mile, and that the good time was more likely due to the ground deteriorating after the first race.

I laid him at Doncaster and obviously lost. I wasn't surprised he won, as while I thought he was poor value I knew he was likely to be one of only a few sure to act on the ground in a weakish field. What did surprise me though was how impressed I was by him in a race that wasn't run to suit. I went back on his form and wondered why the hell I hadn't taken the Autumn Stakes time at face value, always easier in hindsight.

The only thing I disagree with you on is how he should be played. With what we've seen so far it seems likely that COT will be ridden to kick on fairly early. Not saying I'd want AW to be played as late as possible but I'd be waiting until approaching the final furlong at the earliest.

If COT goes on to bolt up in the Guineas I'll applaud him as the real deal, but until that happens I'm highly doubtful he's any kind of superstar after watching the Dewhurst. It was an appalling renewal, with the well beaten 2nd no better than Gp3 class and the 3rd not even a Listed horse, in my view. Those close to the yard will know far more than my outsider guesswork, but I'll be surprised if COT has always been thought of as vastly superior to Henry Longfellow at home. I think him becoming their number 1 is entirely due to those visually impressive track performances. Also it's blindingly obvious that he'd be worth far more than HL to Coolmore as a stallion prospect, hence the Travers talk. They desperately want him to be their number 1.

Nevertheless, I'm still a bit surprised that HL isn't going as a two pronged attack at the Guineas. Although, only a few years ago they did send St Mark's Basilica to France and relied on three no hopers in the Guineas, so I shouldn't be too surprised. HL is still my idea of the horse most likely to win an average Guineas if he runs. Of course COT could still win a Guineas even if he doesn't improve. But on my ratings the only Guineas in the last 10 years that he would've taken on his form shown so far is the one Poetic Flare won.

If the plan to send HL to France remains then my bet would be Ancient Wisdom. He hasn't done enough to win an average Guineas either, but with me now having him only 1lb behind COT he obviously represents the value, and arguably he potentially has a bit more in the tank than COT.

A lot of what you are saying in the above post Figgis brings the filly Ballydoyle to mind. Definitely a classy filly and looked likely to be the one for the lads in the 1000 Guineas. But along comes Minding and 'Ballydoyle' was virtually cast aside and forgotten. She would have been any other stables number one. Got a poor ride in the early May classic. A two pronged attack on the Guineas means nothing unless the chosen one cracks early on. So beware as history repeats itself.

JTOTD, I don't blame Coolmore for thinking COT could be their Frankel. They always thought reasonably highly of him, and it's what they do on a racecourse that really defines a star racehorse, with many people feeling that he's already achieved something special. After the Superlative I was also thinking he could possibly be something out of the ordinary, although I wasn't 100% convinced at that stage. There is often more than one way of interpreting the form of a race and that sometimes goes for race times as well. The most obvious way of interpreting this year's Dewhurst leads me to believe that COT isn't even close to the fastest 2yos O'Brien has ever trained.

A horse capable of putting up an above average Guineas winning performance should've won that race by at least another 2+ lengths. People can say he was idling in front and sectional enthusiasts can say he was value for 3 more lengths, etc, but I'm just not buying it at this stage.

CoT is good, very good. He needs to make it to Newmarket next month though...to prove himself beyond any reasonable doubt; Epsom will be the icing on the cake.

its easy to be swept up in the wave of hype around city of troy ,the media, connections and every man and his dog going on about him ,he may be the noxt pegasus with  many comparing him to frankel but too short for me if he wins so be it looking back through his form and he has looked impressive but and i may be wrong here but looking at the horses he has btn cant recall many winners to come out of any of  those races ,could be he has been beating up bernie winters and bang average horses ok he won a dewhurst easily enough but it didnt look a great race imo . alyanabi, haatam ,eben shadeed, iberian etc and dewhurst 4th henry adams hardly advertised the form last week in dubai ,yes he won impressivly but what will he find if he comes off the bridle ? we dont know yet may still be too good but in ancient times i have a horse who digs deep and pulls out more and by dubawi the type to improve with exp , we dont really have a handle as to how justifys progress ,aiden seems happy but too short for me 16s books ew looks very fair if he lines up .

16s ew ancient wisdom looks very fair  if he lines up ^^^

I think there are sufficient correlative formlines thro' Alyanaabi, Haatem and Iberian and Rosallion with Task Force and Ghostwriter; Rosallion did not act on soft ground when beaten by Iberian, according to his trainer; Night Raider had only won at Southwell.

Henry Adams resented the kickback on Dirt in Meydan, according to Moore; he was also found to be lame post the race.

I'd be a backer of CoT if 'even' money; a layer at 3/5 or less. However, I'd had a few punts on CoT at 16/1, 14/1, 12/1, 5/1 ---> 5/2 for this, and 28/1 --> 12/1 for The Derby.

If CoT is the sole rep from Ballydoyle with Henry Longfellow and River Tiber absent it says a lot about the confidence of his connections.

One of Appleby's charges Notable Speech (4/7) impressed a few pundits at Kempton on the All-Weather yesterday. He's into 8/1 (one 6/1) here. Is it crazy or is it crazy? 8/1 winning on the All-Weather beating non-entities?

I hope it's the Sheikh's money. He'd need to replenish his bank account post divorce settlement with Princess Haya.

I agree with Foyleswar and Figgis. COT has no faster times than the other principals, and hasn't had to battle against a rival of similar talent in his group race wins. Ancient Wisdom is the finished product now, having won well at HQ and then ugly, having come through the furnace at Donny. IT's just a shame that he appears to need give in the ground.

Wouldn't let the ground worry you, Howellsy. It's still raining!!!

Just 3 weeks to go. How time flies? I hope we'll be treated to something very special winning this 2024 renewal.

big drift on ancient times and money for stablemate ,got out for some but biggish red here .......dont look good ! apples changed his mind about the gns ?

Indeed. He's taken a big walk into the wilderness probably stablemate induced ie Notable Speech. However, his female equivalent Dance Sequence is fav possibly anticipating a very good run in the Nell Gwyn on tomorrow.

Another walkie is Rosallion. the 2nd fav. He's matched at 11 here from 8. Manipulation? But, as yet no news from connections.

Dance sequence just beaten into 2nd in the Nell Gwyn. Buick struggled to get her racing in a straight line.

Haatem won like an odds-on shot; he'd good form last season. The rest were hyped horses, and came from high profiled stables.

"Hype" surrounding City Of Troy"?
I've seen hype many times before and this doesn't resemble it.

Hyped = those behind him with a perceived high reputation. But, City Of Troy is no hype last season. He thrashed all before him. I believe he's not ground dependent either, according to his trainer.

Th first time I saw the horse move he reminded me of Nijinsky.
I can't wait to see him race again.

. I believe he's not ground dependent either, according to his trainer.

So, do you believe he is not ground dependent, or are you quoting his trainer?

at odds on is he value ? not saying he wont win he might pish up but there are one or 2 unbeaten unexposed types  and hannon holds a decent hand, odds on he has to win to get a return , id rather take a chance on a few at double figgas each way and get a return if only placed.

Is he a certain runner? No one should be falling for these quotes which are rehashed annually.

City of Troy was on offer at 16/1 and 20/1 for this post winning in Ireland; 20/1 for Epsom. If he shows he'll be AOB's sole rep otherwise Henry Longfellow will deputise (rated 2nd best here).

I think if he shows up on race day even 4/6 is good value on last season's form; Rosallion and Iberian do not want soft ground.

Task Force has taken a wild walk. He's out to 32 from 19. Anyone?

Some interesting thoughts on here. Thanks as ever to the usual faces Figgis et al giving invaluable insight, speed figures and form eval achievements of the leading contenders.  On my pedigree analysis Rosallion would really come into the reckoning on proper good to firm ground.  I've been backing him all winter but alas it looks like good ground at best.  In which case could it be repeat of a Ballydoyle superstar being chased home by the purple Jeff Smith chevrons?  40 years since El Gran Senor and Chief Singer it could well be City of Troy and Ghostwriter leading home a vintage Guineas. GL all.

Some interesting thoughts on here. Thanks as ever to the usual faces Figgis et al giving invaluable insight, speed figures and form eval achievements of the leading contenders.  On my pedigree analysis Rosallion would really come into the reckoning on proper good to firm ground.  I've been backing him all winter but alas it looks like good ground at best.  In which case could it be repeat of a Ballydoyle superstar being chased home by the purple Jeff Smith chevrons?  40 years since El Gran Senor and Chief Singer it could well be City of Troy and Ghostwriter leading home a vintage Guineas. GL all.

Nearly one inch of rain Saturday night and into Sunday morning in Newmarket. Will update if any further significant rainfall.

Yes but forecast is for a drying week , will be interesting to see by how much .

hoping for a drought Paulo!

Ha , wont bother mine , 6.5 and soft at 8am , but its 16 degrees and very windy here about 50 miles North of Newmarket .

Well Ancient Wisdom not left in the race, which I would like to hear the reasons for. As far as I'm concerned, the fav is very hard to oppose now.

Nor Al Musmak. I thought his trainer said he'd run belying his odds.

I'm very interested to see how Notable Speech gets on because of his Timeform rating. While acknowledging he hasn't been completely exposed and could still have Gp1 potential I can't rate him higher than a Gp3 winner at the moment. Timeform have him only 1lb behind Henry Longfellow, level with Vandeek and ahead of Ancient Wisdom and Rosallion. Got to say I find this astonishing. The high rating appears largely due to a massive upgrade for a fast late sectional. As I've said before I'm extremely sceptical about such huge upgrades.

yes notable speech has a mountain to climb on the face of it but could be anything ,could be they think highly of him and they have plenty of yardsticks to compare him to at home but its a big ask but at a double figga price ew could be interesting .

Foyleswar, yes he's 3 from 3, looked impressive and seems like he could step up in class. If anyone fancies him then fair enough, I'm certainly not going to say he can't win. I just find it very surprising they've rated him already higher than a couple of Gp1 winners. If he lives up to that level then well done them and their methods, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Will the jolly City Of Troy crash and burn or will he annihilate the opposition and justify connections' lofty assertion? Personally, I like to see a superstar after so many false dawns the last few years. Final decs tomorrow.

yeah they seem to get over excited by performances these days ,seem to be rating him on what he could be rather than what he has achieved . rating is misleading untill he actually shows it if indeed he can. appleby relying on him rather than ancient wisdom could have some substance but could be other reasons why ancient wisdom not running here ,obviously trip may be sharp enough who knows .

im gonna go through the replays with them all and see what i come up with .

notable speech has got a turn of foot could be he is beating up mugs  ,wether he can produce it to any effect  iupped markedly in class in the gns we will see but im kinda warming to him .

any chance draw could have an effect ? Obvously won't know till tomorrow but have seen few fanceied horses come a cropper by being on 'wrong' side.

I think draw is always a factor just as breeding his. I think you can knock out what wont be winning on the latter alone.

Only 10 runners and drawn in the centre. Can`t see the draw being significant.

Sorry 11 runners.

Stalls centre, draw should be no excuse.

AOB is being greedy. He's relying solely on City Of Troy; Henry Longfellow has been rerouted to France.

City Of Troy is only 2/1 (with 365) for this and Epsom.

Every horse is subject to trot-ups and enhanced pre-race examinations by the BHA vets. I hope the jolly passes otherwise all hell could break loose.

Why is AOB being greedy?

Rain looks like it may scupper plenty of them on form/pedigree.

Fav should win easily but for an interest I thought Inisherin would handle the ground, ran well on debut over c&d (winner won Epsom derby trial) and bolted in last time.
1pt e/w 40/1

After a drying week we have had persistent rain for the last few hours and forecast to continue into the evening. Would anticipate good to soft for tomorrow`s race.

One silver bullet is being dispatched, the other is heading to France.

i quite like task force e/w - by frankel out of guineas winner special duty. second in the middle park over possibly inadequate trip - has had a wind operation.

I think City of Troy will win.Happy to be wrong but I think he is the real deal. The only bets I have had is to back and lay Haatem.His time in the Craven was very good and I will back him in the 4 place market

^^ Haatem is the value bet. He's proven (last season and this); he was 25/1 for a 3 place yesterday with a bookie.

Super boost is 11/10 with 365. Any takers?

At the end of last year Henry Longfellow was my intended bet. A few weeks ago I was also looking at Ancient Wisdom just as a value outsider nibble. With those two out of the reckoning then normally this would lead to a no bet race but ironically it has made the race an easier betting proposition for me, as I'm never that keen on splitting stakes. I don't just think that Rosallion is a value bet, I have him as my most likely winner. When horses are making their first appearance as a 3yo you never really know if they'll hold their form or go backwards. Maybe even if they hold their form another will improve past them, but if Rosallion does hold his form I think it will take an above average Guineas winner to beat him. I have backed Rosallion in singles and in a double with Fallen Angel.

I have City Of Troy next best, and agree with Feltfair that Haatem put up a much improved effort in the Craven and if he can replicate that just over 2 weeks later he'd have a good chance of a place in a normal year. Night Raider and Notable Speech need to make big improvement, but as relatively unexposed runners may have more potential. The rest need to make very big improvement and would be surprise winners to me.

Ground has apparently dried out well so no excuses. Good luck Figgis. May as well try your double as well.

My prediction: City of Troy; Haatem; Task Force/Rosallion (slower ground) finishing in this order.

by blue point figg you obviously think he will get the mile as does hannon if he does could go close got the form and hannon thinks a lot of him ,will have a small bet on him,  ive had another  a few cracks inisherin ew and notable speech ew ante post .good luck all. b365 go 11/10 cot but for £40 only .

Foyles, I can't really remember many horses who could finish that quick in a fast run 7f race as a 2yo and not get the mile at 3. For me, more of a concern is that him being by a sprinter (albeit the fastest older horse sprinter I've seen in recent years) he might not carry his form over into his 3yo season, although the reports are positive.

well not long now  to find out figg good luck all.

City Of Troy's trained on he wins this comfortably.
   GL ALL

thatll do !

Well, I was critical of Timeform's high rating for Notable Speech, so well done to them on that score. I could only put him in the could be anything bracket.

Unlucky Figgis
You bumped into 1 there.Godolphin some of their horse that ran
yesterday were shocking.

easy to say now but i did highlight and back  the winner but his 3 runs were this year no runs last season tells us he could be a late devoloper ie a proper 3 yo ,won it easy as said yard has plenty of yardsticks to compare it with , healthy compensation for the ancient wisdom loss cant complain.

penzance
Unlucky Figgis
You bumped into 1 there.

I think you could be right there Penzance. Must admit my initial reaction was the winner was up to scratch, with Rosallion either not quite as good as I thought, or lacking a little stamina, despite my pre-race confidence about him staying. However, on analysis I believe that Rosallion ran every bit as well as I'd hoped and Haatem ran right up to his Craven form. I will have another look at the results tomorrow but currently I have him as the joint third fastest Guineas winning performance this century. If he recovers quickly from this, I'm not going to say he'll remain unbeaten, as that depends on whether he has some tough races in future, but I can see him running up a sequence of Gp1s.

Well done Foyles.

Who are the two guineas winners you have in front of him this century,  Fig?

Think you can probably guess the first one brandy . I have Dawn Approach 1lb ahead of him in second. I know DA didn't really replicate that afterwards but he was highly tried as a 2yo and didn't improve a great deal from 2 to 3. As a big improver this horse is different so there should be more from him this season. The other Guineas winner I have level with him is Sea The Stars. I know he was supposed to have improved over longer trips but I reckon he would have been a high class miler if sticking to that trip. At the time I thought he'd run so fast in the Guineas that I revised my earlier opinion of him being more a Derby type and doubted he'd be able to sustain that speed over 12f. I backed Fame And Glory to beat him .

I had Kingman as fast as this horse but he didn't run to his best in the Guineas. It's extremely unusual for a 3yo to be this good without having the experience as a 2yo. Zilal was the last one I remember but his best performances were later in the season.

Zilzal*

Thank you.
Interesting to hear you have him in the same class as Kingman.
Looking forward to see if he can progress further.

cant see why not prob a late developer all 4 runs this year and sires stock tend to get better

Well done winners, and layers of the favourite.
Inisherin gave me a good run for my money.

Hard to write off City Of Troy completely given what happened with Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear last year but it was a lamentable run.
Winner and second look good quality milers, though maybe Rosallion could drop back in trip if he gets beat by the winner again.

Given how out of form Ralph Becketts stable has been I thought Trade Fair ran well enough and he will be in my tracker in the hope he might win a decent race at a nice price during the season.

The excuse that City Of Troy got upset in the stalls is weak as he was only in the stalls five seconds (I checked the video).

Abysmal run yesterday but his form was there with the 3RD & 5TH horses.
Beat them easy enough last season.Be interesting when or where he goes
next,might be something wrong or he's just not gone on from last year.
O'Brien got Auguste Rodin back after a shocker & a good few years ago
got a horse called Power to win the IR2000G when btn miles in this aswell.

“I think this is probably the best Guineas we have seen in 10 years.” Richard Hannon.

The cynic in me would normally say well he would say that as is horse was beaten into second, but I actually agree. I would like to see Hannon gain some compensation with Rosallion as I reckon he'd have narrowly beaten every other Guineas winner in the last 9 years and, in theory, dead heated with his own Night Of Thunder. However, my concern is that by my reckoning he has levelled off and only replicated his best 2yo form. I wouldn't be surprised if he went the way of Chaldean from here. Hannon's third Haatem has also just run two fast races in quick succession, so may need a break to repeat this level again. The only horse I'm taking from the race is the winner. Hopefully the markets won't be too unreasonable.

As for City Of Troy, even though I believe he has been massively overrated that obviously wasn't his running. I reckon if he'd run to form he'd have finished about a length behind Rosallion. A third in that Guineas could be good enough to win an ordinary Derby. If O'Brien thinks he has him back after this then there's no saying he can't do what Auguste Rodin did last season. I kept the faith with AR last year as I already had his 2yo form ahead of COT and I thought his Guineas run was just a write off. I doubt I'll be backing COT as, apart from not rating him as highly as AR, I just didn't like what I saw on Saturday.

City Of Troy,Derby bound next,S/Life.

After Timeform proved correct to rate Notable Speech with a big chance of winning the Guineas (ignoring COT obviously) I'm surprised they haven't rated his win higher.

Previous Timeform ratings after the last 5 Guineas

2023 - 123 Chaldean
2022 - 127 Coroebus
2021 - 122 Poetic Flare
2020 - 129 Kameko
2019 - 125 Magna Grecia

Only 125 for Notable Speech, they even had the 2020 second Wichita 127, 2lbs ahead of him.
I have nothing between the performances of Kameko, Coroebus and Chaldean. All average winners on the day, with Magna Grecia and Poetic Flare below average. I have Notable Speech a good 6lbs higher than those average winners.

In comparison the RP ratings

2024 - 123 Notable Speech
2023 - 120 Chaldean
2022 - 123 Coroebus
2021 - 120 Poetic Flare
2020 - 121 Kameko
2019 - 121 Magna Grecia

Figgis, I make his an average winning time figure. For me it's roughly the same (76) as I had the top colts on last season - Ancient Wisdom (75), COT (74) and Henry L. (75). I have Rosallion just 1 pound quicker than he did in France.

Howellsy, well it remains to be seen if I'm right, but I'll be willing to take shorter odds about him than most Guineas winners, and backing him like he's a well above average winner. It's unlikely another 3yo miler will come along as good, and the older milers just won't be able to give weight to that type of performance. I think if Buick plays it cool and continues to produce him late then he could remain unbeaten this season in Europe. Maybe not if he decides to kick on early and win by a wide margin, as that could take more out of him.

You may well be right Figgis - it's not obvious to me that an older horse would be able to give him weight in that sort of race - but how often will he get those circumstances from now on? Straight track, strong gallop - France or QE2 possibly.

Howellsy, but in those a.w races he showed the turn of foot he can find in a slowly run affair. He's going to be extremely difficult to beat.

Again, you might be right Figgis, but beating class 2 horses with a turn of foot isn't the same as beating group 1 animals.