Prix Rothschild (Group 1)

Incredibly the race looks even weaker after the result than it did before . But well done to anyone who found that.

Tipped up by Picewise I believe.

Last time winner raced in group 1 company, sounds like it done well under the circumstances, some good horses in the race that day, not a typical profile for form readers to select for a win

The race was sponsored by Rothschild and the winner was owned by a Rothschild. And trained by Fabre. That might have been a pointer.

winner was also supplemented for the race

Well, personally I still wouldn't have backed it. Nor will I be backing horses in the future based on any of the reasons put forward.

I was hoping you would reply to the nonsense figgis

I was hoping you would reply to the nonsenFiggisgis


Its not nonsense if the price available is much bigger than its chance as it was in this instance.

PS   I backed it not for the reasons mentioned, nor did I consider it the most likely winner (fifth actually), but it was a value bet.

The fact that ownership and sponsor aligned is no worse a factor to weigh up than any other and probably better than many,imo but its difficult to put a number on it.

Finding the most likely winner is obviously the  best reason for backing providing it is value.

Backing horses however purely because they are the most likely winner without taking price into account is what is nonsense.

Like Figgis said, I would not back any horse without taking form into account and certainly not for any other reason.

Quick to criticise and slow to learn Harry C.

What should I learn from this sandown, apart from you come on after the lord mares show.

A day after the race in fact, saying who sponsors the race. I mean does figgis really want to hear this after a losing wager. Then you now come on today to tell us you’ve backed it. Vermin that

I don’t need to learn anything from this thread sandown, apart from you should come on before the race with your reasoning, then you might actually get some credit.

I was also criticising brandy’s comment as who cares whether segal has tipped it after the race. Like I say figgis has had a losing wager and there is no relevance with these comments to help him. Just annoying imo

HC

Its ludicrous to curtail all discussion following a race because of the absence of a prior bet being struck and posted on a thread. I had no intention of mentioning this, and I don't think in 20 years of posting on here that is something that I have ever intentionally done. In this instance, I was merely pointing out that there had been a possible factor to spot which could explain why the result had not been a complete surprise.

I only use this forum for in the main for discussion on the Arc and Derby where I hope to be able to debate in an adult manner with people like Figgis( and yourself)whose opinions I always respect even if we disagee on some matter. In any case, Figgis is someone who can always be relied upon to defend his own corner so I doubt that he is too bothered by me admitting that in this instance I had backed the horse. I often play more than one horse in a race as its obvious that chance plays a huge part in outcomes and no level of form analysis can get you always to the actual result. Nostrum might be a recent case in point.

What you should take out of my posts on this is that backing any horse which rates as a value bet will always pay off in the long run even if it is never the most likely winner.

Fair enough Sandown no harm done. I always read your posts, like you say we don't agree on a lot but have different methods. Anyway we'll soon be discussing the open arc soon. I don't come on as much as before as tailored down my betting to try and be more selective but will enjoy trying to handicap that race. It isn't going to be easy though as looks a very open renewal

The reasons given were perfectly acceptable if you think that they were an indicator of an improved effort, and, regardless of winning or not, you believe the Fabre filly did indeed put up a better performance on the day. However, that's not how I view the result. I thought it was no better than a typical Gp3 winning performance. Mqse De Sevigne with Life In Motion only a neck behind, finished first and second by default. As the better fillies, Souterne, Remarquee and Rogue Millennium ran nowhere near their best.

I didn't stick with Kelina