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FOYLESWAR
29 Nov 22 22:22
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 9,382 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
the front of the market ie  tayhira meditate commisioning statuette look more like guineas fillys to me and look short enough anyway . i was impressed by inner spaces debut over a mile at kempton last week well away she soon led and quickened away 2f out to run out a very  comfortable winner at the line it was an impressive performance to my eye, stoutly bred siyouni - journey  middle distances should be right up her street and trained by the gosdens who went close in this years oaks with emily upjohn who also won her only race at 2 no way of knowing where she is in tthe pecking order of the yards oaks types but around 33/1 looks fair to me.i have had a few pops each way at that price . good luck opinions encouraged.
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Report cryoftruth November 30, 2022 7:40 AM GMT
Hi Foyles

Inner Space only ran 85 at Kempton so she has around 35lbs to improve to win a decent Oaks.
The 3rd at Kempton, and hot favourite seems to be definitely moderate as she ran the same next time.

BUT Inner Space could be anything. She won pretty easily. I would like to have seen her really quicken but that is being picky.

Looks sure to stay 12 furlongs to me (maybe a slight doubt) but the dam stayed very well and the sire has got an Arc winner (in a bog). Beautifully bred and with no pretentious to being a Guineas horse, you’d think she’d be a possible for the Cheshire Oaks as the tight Kempton track suited her well.

There are worse 33/1 shots and I have had a small stab at those odds so thanks.
Report FOYLESWAR November 30, 2022 2:04 PM GMT
a lot of guesswork and luck needed but i am looking at the market on the possibility  that some if not all  of the the 1st 4 or 5 in the betting dont line up, as said on breeding and profile that looks feasible .   on the same card as when inner space won  godolphins rainbow sky  -sea the stars -best terms also made an eyecatching debut  over the  mile   showing an impressive turn of foot to win comfortably in the end, well worth a look at the race again and this one is also 33/1. both need to step up but both with top yards well bred and scope for plenty of improvement . she earned a racing post rating of 80 topspeed of 48 whereas inner space rpr of 85 and topspeed of 71 .  33/1 for both fillys looks fair for smallish stakes each way imo .
Report FOYLESWAR November 30, 2022 2:04 PM GMT
good luck cryoftruth .
Report penzance November 30, 2022 4:32 PM GMT
5th in that Kempton race won a  Fillies Nov' Stks @ Lingfield today.
(Sunset Point).
Report FOYLESWAR November 30, 2022 6:02 PM GMT
thanks penzance yes a boost for the inner space form ,  rainbow sky was as green as grass in her race and didnt look to be going anywhere untill picking up in the final furlong ,could be very smart and i have had a dabble each way.
Report cryoftruth December 4, 2022 12:28 PM GMT
Not as convinced about Rainbow Sky for the Oaks although she was utterly clueless first time out and has massive potential improvement.

But she would be a doubtful stayer for 12 furlongs I think.
Report Platini May 25, 2023 2:54 PM BST
what's the view now, with the race only a week away ?  AOB's to lose ?
Report penzance May 25, 2023 4:47 PM BST
Backed 2 in this which I don't do too much.
Soul Sister a while ago A/P (Win) & small E/W Dance In The Grass,
didn't think Gosden would run his other horse,Running Lion. Can't
help but be impressed by Savethelastdance though,surely will be
hard to beat.
   GL ALL
Report Platini May 25, 2023 11:54 PM BST
STLD looked hugely impressive at Chester, regardless of the ground and some will question what she beat there. But you just don't see many races won as easily as that and she looked comfortable at the end, as if she had more gears in her. I thought the 13/8 on offer for the Oaks afterwards was generous so snapped some up. Soul Sister then put in an impressive performance at York and I'd be quite chuffed if I was on that ante post or took the 25 on here just before the Musidora. it looks like we might have a race now, esp if the ground firms up.
But I'm still confident that my eyes weren't deceiving me and this could be a special filly. If I was to pick an alternative now I'd probably go with one of AOB's others, such is his record in classics.
Report Figgis May 28, 2023 10:18 AM BST
Ok, so I've read various pieces enthusing about Savethelastdance's apparently amazing sectionals. Even a comparison with Shergar Surprised. If these are proved true then I will eat my words and bow to the superior analysis. But as things stand it seems to me a lot of people have lost the 'kin plot with this one. A Gp1 performance in a Listed race? No better than a Gp3 performance at best, in my view Wink
Report impossible123 May 28, 2023 10:59 AM BST
I think it'll be another tussle between the two principals - horses and trainers - similar to just a few seasons ago eg Rhododendron and Enable. I just hope  I'm on the correct one this time. If so, more interest for The ARC too.
Report brandyontherocks May 28, 2023 2:26 PM BST
Always interested to hear your take on things, Figgis.

I like to play in races where a horse has apparently put up a "wow" performance the time before, because they will always be much shorter than they should be.
Report Figgis May 28, 2023 6:27 PM BST
Hi Brandy, personally I can't say I was overly impressed with the win either visually or on the clock.
Report brandyontherocks May 28, 2023 8:14 PM BST
Visually it did nothing for me. Hence I am happy to look for an angle against her.
Report brandyontherocks May 28, 2023 8:14 PM BST
Visually it did nothing for me. Hence I am happy to look for an angle against her.
Report liberator of the oppressed May 30, 2023 7:50 AM BST
Morning Figgis hope you are well. Was visibly megga impressive at Chester but agree with you I backed it at 6/1 for a fair wodge in winning other bits doubles and trebles and traded out just over 6/4 couple things. Takes time to get going good ones usually do and the ground then again will probably win by a mile. Hope it does win was a good few quid thought better in my pocket couple bottles pom pom helped justification. Reminded myself did same thing that other AOB that got smashed up by Enable was counting my money before got over the line.
Report Figgis May 30, 2023 11:29 AM BST
Hi LOTO. I backed Enable in that Oaks (posted on here). Unfortunately I stood to win much more in the doubles I also had her in with Cliffs Of Moher, and we all know how that panned out.
Report Figgis May 30, 2023 10:48 PM BST
No mention yet of the filly I think will win, so I'll do it. On watching this year's Pretty Polly Stakes and analysing the time afterwards I thought it was highly likely I'd just seen the Oaks winner. Nothing I've seen (or read) since has altered that view. I'm quite confident, but I've been doing this long enough to know there's a huge difference between trying to nail down a time performance in a race of relatively unexposed runners and a race like a Royal Ascot Gp1.

The fact is you never can be 100% sure until the unexposed horse goes on to replicate the figure again, but if you wait for that to happen then the chances of obtaining value will decrease. The going may have changed between one race and another, particularly when the ground is soft. There may have even been a wind change. This would be pretty easy to deduce on a Royal Ascot card, but not so in a race of unexposed runners, such as this year's Pretty Polly.

That said, at this stage I believe that Running Lion is already good enough to take an average Oaks. I have her a good 7lbs ahead of Soul Sister, who in turn I have another 4lbs ahead of Savethelastdance, who, for me, has been vastly overrated. I've backed Running Lion in singles and also in doubles with Auguste Rodin for The Derby.
Report FOYLESWAR May 31, 2023 8:00 PM BST
another one hardly mentioned who i have had a few quid on with billys at 16/1 is eternal hope who is progressing and has won at 12f so no probs with trip ,by teofilo and applebys only runner here a good bit to find on the ratings but unexposed and could well improve for the switch to turf .
Report FOYLESWAR May 31, 2023 8:01 PM BST
applebys only runner in this ^^^^
Report FOYLESWAR June 1, 2023 8:13 AM BST
this looks more open than the betting says , no suprise if the fav wins given the record of the connections but she will find the conditions very different tommorow and i like to take on last time out wide margin winners  ,she could still be good enough but is no value at all imo. since 2014 aiden o.brien & the gosdens have won this and ther betting says one of them will win it again but the 3 are short enough imo.
Report FOYLESWAR June 1, 2023 8:14 AM BST
since 2014 only aob & gosdens have won this race.^^^^
Report brandyontherocks June 1, 2023 11:06 AM BST
O'brien got a couple in to ensure it is not run at a dawdle.

Should be a proper test tomorrow.
Report Sandown June 2, 2023 10:08 AM BST
On my figures, the race is between Savethelastdance 52% chance and Soul Sister 28%  with Running Lion some way off at 6%. There is no value imo in the favouriites price of 1.93 but there is in SS at 4.6.


SS should be ok on the faster ground/ distance and without STLD I would be interested in a larger bet but as it is it will make me a small profit but no more. I have STLD for a slightly bigger profit after trading but as a betting race it is of minimal importance to me.

I am intrigued by your comments Figgis on STLD as I was impressed by STLD both visually and especially on the finishing sectionals. We will soon see if that performance can be reproduced or not.
Report Figgis June 2, 2023 10:30 AM BST
Sandown, I don't disagree with the theory of races being run efficiently or inefficiently. This should be obvious to everybody. What I do strongly disagree with is some of the stuff I read where narrow confines are used to classify what is efficient or inefficient, and some of the unrealistic upgrades that are applied. In my view the performances of most racehorses aren't straitjacketed by such precise margins.

How did you rate the performance before any upgrades? And what exactly was it about the finishing sectionals that makes you think she's top class?
Report Sandown June 2, 2023 11:49 AM BST
Figgis

Using the RP  TS rating of109 (I no longer compile my own ratings), which I'm satisfied with, and with the sectionals available from ATR, I have a Projected Rating of 121 for STLD, which puts it into G1 class at this time of the year. The RPR is 116. Of course, given the ground, the actual finishing fractions are not in themselves anything special, but with a large GA they are better than average. This is a rating significantly higher than Soul Sister (although that can be upgraded,) and Running Lion.

Incidentally, the fractions compare very well against Arrest  (on the same day) or to put it another way, I can't give an upgrade to that horse's TS of 99., rather the opposite. Unless it improves significantly for the going change, I can't rate it high enough to have much of a chance in the Derby.
Report Figgis June 2, 2023 11:53 AM BST
Sandown, for me the ground was riding heavy, not just soft. Wouldn't you say it's fairly obvious that the ground significantly deteriorated even further after the third race?
Report FELTFAIR June 2, 2023 12:12 PM BST
No strong opinion and no ante post interest. Going to have a shilling each way x4 places Heartache Tonight. A poor show will be a little disappointing but definitely not a heartache.
Report brandyontherocks June 2, 2023 2:13 PM BST
I have sided with Soul Sister.

GL all
Report Sandown June 2, 2023 2:36 PM BST
Figgis

I can only go on the time comparisons per furlong given in the RP . They have described the going as heavy throughout the day. Looking at those comparisons there might be a case for describing it as getting worse but when it gets heavy I think that the allowances become somewhat suspect.
Report Figgis June 2, 2023 2:57 PM BST
Sandown

Fair enough. As I said earlier, even though I'm confident enough I would never really be 100% when dealing with only one performance in a race of lightly raced horses. It could be that after the race I'm a convert to STLD and have to downgrade RL Wink
Report Angela Rebecchi June 2, 2023 5:09 PM BST
Ramruma • May 17, 2023 4:18 PM BST
4/1 for the Oaks, according to the Post. Seems a bit short this far out but that's standard practice for bookies these days.

Angela Rebecchi • May 17, 2023 4:22 PM BST
I took some 5/1 which I actually think is very generous. 4/1 still is too imho. We will find out in just over a fortnights time.

Ramruma • May 17, 2023 4:27 PM BST
Very impressive in the Musidora today but 18/1 SP suggests the Gosdens did not rate her an Oaks filly this morning, and it's not like the barn has never trained a classic winner before.

Angela Rebecchi • May 17, 2023 4:30 PM BST
That is true. She couldn't have been any more impressive really though and I think the price is largely due to an over inflated opinion in the market of savethelastdance's win in desperate ground. I would say 4/1 is still a very nice price indeed.


Nice when a plan comes together.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl June 2, 2023 5:59 PM BST
Well done Angela good call.
Well called also Figgis on dat Chester Oaks trial. Unlucky with RL. Oisin was real mad to be a non-runner. Keep up the good work.
Report impossible123 June 2, 2023 7:17 PM BST
The winner is not in the ARC betting, the 2nd is. If it comes up soft she'd be very interesting.
Report Figgis June 2, 2023 8:45 PM BST
Cheers JTOTD, pity the bookmakers won't be as charitable with my RL bet Wink. Auguste Rodin for the win tomorrow, otherwise it will be a poor weekend on the ante post front.
Report Figgis June 2, 2023 9:10 PM BST
Anyway, well done winners. Only a moderate Oaks this year, in my opinion. I'll be amazed if any of those fillies figure in the Arc.
Report brandyontherocks June 2, 2023 9:39 PM BST
Happy I took the O'brien filly on,but agree it looked a very average renewal.


Emily UpJohn looked good earlier I thought.
Report Figgis July 21, 2023 5:06 PM BST
I see the RP and, even more so, Timeform are clinging to the belief that Savethelastdance is something special and that it was the faster ground that beat her last time, not a faster filly.
Report .Marksman. July 21, 2023 8:14 PM BST
Savethelastdance's run in the Oaks was strange as she seemed to be weakening then regained 2nd from outsider, Caernarfon (who was subsequently well beaten at Ascot). Warm Heart achieved more in either of her last 2 wins than Savethelastdance did at Chester.  And the more recent in the Ribblesdale appeared to be a big improvement.  The big doubt is the going:
If we knew she acted on this going and Ryan Moore had selected her, surely she would be favourite now.
Report Figgis July 22, 2023 1:51 PM BST
Marksman, yes I'm with you on this one. O'Brien has said Savethelastdance has done well physically after the rest since the Oaks, so it's possible that she's the more likely to go forward. However, on form it's Warm Heart for me, backed.
Report .Marksman. July 22, 2023 3:50 PM BST
Well I got that wrong!  But Savethelastchance ran the same sort of race that she ran at Epsom, re-rallying.Surprised
Report Figgis July 22, 2023 3:53 PM BST
Well still no superstar but fair enough she won. Shocker from Warm Heart, following some big opposition in the market. Poor bet.
Report penzance July 23, 2023 2:16 PM BST
Never ran up to form Warm Heart.Not really put in the race.
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